Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Leonor Tarrasón and David Simpson EMEP/MSC-W

Contribution from EMEP-MSC W modelling to Expert Group on Particulate Matter

2nd meeting of the EG on PM , 7-8 November 2005. London, UK

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Outline: Key questions on transboundary PM characterisation from EG Chairs

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

1. To what extent is PM a transboundary pollutant?2. Which components of PM have a significant transboundary

element?3. Are primary PM emissions important in transboundary

pollution? 4. What are the important emissions sources of

transboundary PM?5. What are the key sources of primary PM emissions?6. Is PM a hemispheric pollutant?7. Where are the main uncertainties in modelling

transboundary PM?

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

To what extent is PM a transboundary pollutant?

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Both fine and coarse PM has a significant transboundary contribution. Differences among countries mostly due to their size and position downwind In Europe.

EMEP Unified model calculations 1997 meteorological conditionsCalculations based on 2010 CAFÉ Baseline emissions

Contribution of transboundary PM

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120.0

countries

(%)

PM2.5

PPM2.5

PPM coarse

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Which components of PM have a significant transboundary element?

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

All PM components have a significant transboundary element.

Example of concentrations of SIA, primary fine particles and primary coarse particlesat different countries due to 1 kton emission of German precursor gases and primary PM emissions in the projected chemical situation in 2010 CLE and using 1997 meteorological conditions for the transport. Units: ng/m3

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SIA

PPM25

PPMcoarse

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Are primary PM emissions important in transboundary pollution?

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Tranboundary contributions are related to the travel distance of PM

Example for Germany with 2010 emissions and meteorology from 1997

Units: ng/m3

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DELUNLBECZATPLDKFRCH SI

BASSKNO

SHUHRG

BLTBALVBYCS ITROMDUA IEEESEBGALM

KBLSM

EDG

RM

TESNOFIATLTRRUCY

NOAPT

KZGEISAZAMASI

GL

SIA

PPM25

PPMcoarse

SO4 ~ 2500 kmPPM2.5 ~2500kmPMcoarse ~ 500-

1000km

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

What are the key sources of primary PM emissions?

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Sector analysis – percentage contribution from main SNAP sectors to primary PM2.5

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

What are the important emissions sources of transboundary PM?

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Sector analysis – percentage contribution from main SNAP sectors to PM2.5

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

The regional transboundary contribution dominates

the urban PM10 observed concentrations

A n n u a l a v e r a g e P M 1 0 c o n c e n t r a t i o n f o r s t a t i o n s w i t h 6 y e a r d a t a

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

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6 0

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

Conce

ntrati

on (µ

g/m3)

r u r a l ( 2 8 )

u r b a n ( 7 3 )

s t r e e t ( 3 4 )

3 6 t h h i g h e s t P M 1 0 c o n c e n t r a t i o n f o r s t a t i o n s w i t h 6 y e a r d a t a

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

Conc

entra

tion (

µg/m

3 )

r u r a l ( 2 8 )

u r b a n ( 7 1 )

s t r e e t ( 3 4 )

N u m b e r o f s t a t i o n s a n d c o u n t r i e s p e r s t a t i o n c l a s s : R u r a l : 2 8 s t a t i o n s i n 4 c o u n t r i e s : C H ( 1 ) , C Z ( 1 7 ) , G B ( 3 ) , N L ( 7 ) U r b a n : 7 3 s t a t i o n s i n 7 c o u n t r i e s : B E ( 3 ) , C H ( 4 ) , C Z ( 2 9 ) , E S ( 1 ) , G B ( 2 8 ) , N L ( 5 ) , P L ( 3 ) S t r e e t : 3 4 s t a t i o n s i n 9 c o u n t r i e s : B E ( 4 ) , C H ( 2 ) , C Z ( 5 ) , E S ( 1 0 ) , F I ( 2 ) , G B ( 4 ) , N L ( 5 ) , P L ( 1 ) , P T ( 1 ) F o r P M 1 0 , e q u i v a l e n t m e t h o d s a r e u s e d i n m a n y c o u n t r i e s , a n d f o r t h e s e i n s t r u m e n t s , c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s h a v e t o b e d e t e r m i n e d a n d a p p l i e d . F i g u r e 5 i s b a s e d o n d a t a o n l y f r o m s t a t i o n s w h e r e t h e u s e o f c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o m e a s u r e m e n t m e t h o d i s k n o w n f o r a l l t h e y e a r s w i t h d a t a , s o t h a t t h e t e n d e n c y s h o w n i s n o t i n f l u e n c e d b y i n c o n s i s t e n t u s e o f c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r .

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Influence of transboundary PM in Oslo

PM2.5 Source Contribution Grid Cell (10,12)

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29-N

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01-D

ec-0

3

03-D

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05-D

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3

07-D

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ec-0

3

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

g/m

3 )

PM2.5 - Cell: {10,12}. All sources and BC included

PM2.5: Background EMEP

PM2.5 - Cell: {10,12}. Source: Domestic wood combustion

PM2.5 - Cell: {10,12}. Source: Road traffic

PM2.5 - Cell: {10,12}. All other sources

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

Nested EMEP – EPISODE Local scale model

Domestic heating and LRT dominates Road traffic and resuspension PM2.5 dominates PM10

PM10 Source Contribution Grid Cell (10,12)

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01-N

ov-

03

03-N

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05-N

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07-N

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11-N

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25-N

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29-N

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03

01-D

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3

03-D

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07-D

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09-D

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ec-0

3

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

g/m

3 )

PM10 - Cell: {10,12}. All sources and BC included

PM10 Background EMEP

PM10 - Cell: {10,12}. Source: Domestic wood combustion

PM10 - Cell: {10,12}. Source: Road traffic

PM10 - Cell: {10,12}. All other sources

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Is PM a hemispheric issue?

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On an episodic basis, PM can be transported over different continentsThere are well documented episodes of •Wind blown dust•Biomass burning (Forster at al, 2001, Simmonds et al., 2005)

SO4, EC vertical profiles shows sharp gradients in the free troposphere (FT)New findings and discussion on the existence background organic carbon FT oxidation of long-lived VOCs ? (Heald et al, 2005)

dust storm in the Sahara Desert along the Algeria/Niger border (25.0N, 10.0E)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Where are the main uncertainties in modelling transboundary PM?

Spain

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Obs Bemantes

M od Bemantes

Obs M onagrega

M od M onagrega

Obs M ontseny

M od M ontseny

ND/waterotherdustSSOC+ECNH4NO3SO4

Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

General good agreements with SIA observationsSignificant underestimation of carbonaceous aerosol components