CONSENSUS FORECAST - FocusEconomics...3.6 billion deficit. The print was up from the EUR 3.8 billion...

CONSENSUS FORECAST

FINLAND 2CALENDAR 10NOTES 12

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist

OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS EconomistCECILIA SIMKIEVICH EconomistMIRIAM DOWD Editor

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015

INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015

Finland • April 2015

FOCUSECONOMICS Finland

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2

April 2015

Finland

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity rebounds at the outset of the yearIn January, economic activity rose a working-day adjusted 0.7% over the same month last year, according to the monthly Trend Indicator of Output. The reading contrasted the revised 1.1% drop recorded in December (previously reported: -1.2% year-on-year) and marked the largest increase in three months. January’s expansion reflected a healthy increase in services, while growth in both the primary and secondary sectors was flat.

On a monthly basis, economic output expanded 1.5% in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms in January, coming in well above December’s 0.8% contraction and marking the largest increase in 20 months. Annual average growth in economic activity stabilized at December’s 0.0% in January.

The Central Bank expects the economy to contract 0.1% in 2015 and to expand 1.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are more optimistic than the Central Bank’s forecast and expect the economy to expand 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP expanding 1.4%.

Economic growth is expected to rebound this year, thereby putting an end to three consecutive years of declining output. Although household consumption remains subdued, the weakening of the euro coupled with the fall in oil prices is supporting growth. Despite the recovery expected for 2015, Fitch Ratings changed Finland’s credit outlook from stable to negative on 20 March, but affirmed the country’s rating at AAA. The agency cited the structural decline in the electronics and paper sectors, which have been key drivers in the past. This, combined with an ageing population, has led to a sharp decline in productivity growth and in economic growth estimates. In addition, Finland is suffering from a sharp fall in exports to Russia, the country’s third-largest trading partner. In the political arena, the opposition Centre Party of Finland is leading the polls in advance of the 19 April general elections.

Although Finland’s economic outlook is clouded by ongoing domestic difficulties, the pick-up in economic growth in the Eurozone and the decline in oil prices are expected to foster growth this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect the recovery to be mild in 2015 with GDP projected to expand 0.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see the economy growing 1.4%.

Harmonized consumer prices decreased 0.1% in February (January: -0.2% year-on-year). The decline in oil prices and subdued economic growth are keeping inflationary pressures at bay. Panelists expect inflation to average 0.4% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Next year, the panel sees inflation at 1.2%.

Outlook deteriorates

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages

Ricard TornéSenior Economist

Finland

2011-13 2014-16 2017-19Population (million): 5.4 5.5 5.6GDP (EUR bn): 200 207 227GDP per capita (EUR): 36,946 37,706 40,763GDP growth (%): -0.1 0.6 1.8Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.8 -2.6 -0.6Public Debt (% of GDP): 52.5 61.0 60.9Inflation (%): 2.9 0.9 1.9Current Account (% of GDP): -1.8 -1.2 0.0

Monthly GDP | variation in %

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of working-day adjusted Trend Indicator of Output (TIO) in %.Source: Statistics Finland and FocusEconomics calculations.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Year-on-year w.d.a.

Annual average

%



April 2015

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account records largest deficit in six months in JanuaryThe current account posted a EUR 530 million deficit in January. Although the print represented a slight improvement compared to the EUR 715 million shortfall recorded in the same month last year, it marked the largest deficit in six months.

The trade balance registered a deficit of EUR 114 million in January, contrasting the EUR 143 million surplus recorded in December. Exports contracted at the fastest pace since August 2013, falling 10.2% over the same month last year (December: +3.6% year-on-year). Imports followed suit and declined 14.1% annually in January (December: -6.9% yoy), which represented the largest drop since October 2009.

In the 12 months up to January, the current account balance recorded a EUR 3.6 billion deficit. The print was up from the EUR 3.8 billion shortfall recorded in the 12 months up to the previous month and represented the smallest deficit in 13 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the current account deficit to reach 1.0% of GDP in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects the current account deficit to be at 0.7% of GDP.

Current Account Balance | EUR billion

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in EUR billion.Source: Bank of Finland (BoF) and FocusEconomics calculations.

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Monthly current account balance (left scale)

12-month current account balance (right scale)



April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Real Sector Population (million) 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6GDP per capita (EUR) 34,963 36,625 36,990 37,223 37,425 37,445 38,249 39,380 40,725 42,185GDP (EUR bn) 187 197 200 202 204 206 211 218 227 236Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) 3.4 5.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.0Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.0 2.6 -1.4 -1.3 -0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.2 4.0 -1.3 -1.3 -0.8 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.8Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.1 2.9 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.9Government Consumption (annual var. in %) -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 - - - - -Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.1 4.1 -2.2 -5.3 -5.1 -0.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.2 2.0 1.2 -0.7 -0.4 2.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.5 6.0 1.6 -1.6 -1.4 1.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 5.3 1.7 -1.4 -3.5 -2.6 1.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.3 7.8 7.6Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.0 -2.1 -2.4 -3.2 -2.5 -2.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3Public Debt (% of GDP) 47.1 48.5 53.0 56.0 59.2 61.5 62.4 61.8 60.9 59.9Monetary and Financial Sector Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.2 3.5 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.7 3.3 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.0Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) 5.0 5.5 1.5 -0.4 -1.0 - - - - -ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.543-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.5710-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.16 2.31 1.52 2.13 0.80 0.62 0.91 1.35 1.37 1.48Stock Market (var. of OMXH25 in %) 29.3 -26.1 13.8 28.3 5.4 - - - - -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.8 -1.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.2Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.3 -3.5 -3.9 -3.6 -3.8 -2.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.2 0.5Trade Balance (EUR bn) 2.3 -1.6 -0.4 0.1 0.7 - - - - - Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.053-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15Trend Indicator of Output (annual var. in %) 0.3 -0.5 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.2 -1.1 0.7 - -Trend Indicator of Output (s.a. mom var. in %) 0.8 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.6 -0.8 1.5 - -Industrial Production (annual var. in %) -4.1 -2.7 -3.5 -1.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.2 -3.9 - -Unemployment (% of active population) 9.2 7.0 7.4 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.8 8.8 10.1 -Cons. Confidence Index (0-threshold) 8.7 9.4 2.2 -0.7 0.4 2.6 4.4 6.0 10.6 11.2Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.16 -0.92 -0.06 0.45 0.13 0.09 0.14 -0.53 - -



April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in %

3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts

2 | Real GDP | Q1 12 - Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Finland (SF). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.1 GDP, annual variation in %.2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally-adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.6 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.7 Gross fixed capital formation, annual variation in %.8 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro areaWorld

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

FinlandEuro areaWorld

0

1

2

3

Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

MaximumConsensusMinimum

-1

0

1

2

3



6 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


2015 2016

5 | Consumption | variation in %

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016Aktia Bank 0.3 1.3Commerzbank 0.7 0.8Credit Suisse 0.8 1.5Danske Bank 0.5 1.5DekaBank 0.2 1.0Deutsche Bank 0.8 1.4DZ Bank 0.6 1.5EIU 0.4 1.4ETLA Research Institute 0.6 1.8Handelsbanken 0.5 1.5Nordea 0.0 1.5OP-Pohjola Group 1.0 1.7Oxford Economics 0.3 1.0Raiffeisen Research 0.5 1.8SEB 0.4 1.0Swedbank 0.0 0.8UBS 0.8 1.4SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.8Maximum 1.0 1.8Median 0.5 1.4Consensus 0.5 1.4History30 days ago 0.6 1.360 days ago 0.6 1.490 days ago 0.7 1.3Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) -0.1 1.0IMF (Oct. 2014) 0.9 1.6Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.8 1.4



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Aktia Bank 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 2.5 0.4 2.4Commerzbank - - - - - - - -Credit Suisse - - - - - - - -Danske Bank 0.0 0.5 -1.5 3.0 3.0 4.0 1.5 2.5DekaBank - - - - - - - -Deutsche Bank - - - - - - - -DZ Bank 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.8 3.0 4.3 3.2 4.2EIU 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.3 0.9ETLA Research Institute 0.5 1.3 0.7 2.3 1.7 3.0 1.8 2.3Handelsbanken 0.2 1.1 -0.5 3.5 4.7 3.7 2.7 3.5Nordea 0.0 0.7 -1.5 3.4 2.1 3.9 1.6 3.1OP-Pohjola Group 0.6 1.0 -1.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 0.9 2.5Oxford Economics 0.0 1.0 -2.4 1.9 0.8 2.8 0.0 2.4Raiffeisen Research - - - - - - - -SEB 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 3.7 1.5 3.4Swedbank - - - - - - - -UBS 0.2 1.1 1.3 2.5 2.9 4.6 1.5 3.9SummaryMinimum 0.0 0.5 -2.4 1.9 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.9Maximum 0.9 1.3 1.6 3.5 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.2Median 0.2 1.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 3.7 1.5 2.5Consensus 0.3 0.9 -0.3 2.6 2.3 3.5 1.4 2.8History30 days ago 0.3 0.9 0.1 2.5 2.4 3.5 1.5 2.960 days ago 0.4 1.0 0.3 2.6 2.1 3.4 1.4 2.990 days ago 0.4 1.1 0.6 2.5 2.1 3.2 1.6 3.3

Consumption Investment Exports Imports variation in % variation in % variation in % variation in %

7 | Investment | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

9 | Imports | variation in %

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

8 | Exports | variation in %

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

10 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

-2

0

2

4


2015 2016

12 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

1

2

3

4

5


2015 2016

11 | Exports | evol. of forecasts

2

3

4

5


2015 2016



April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

16 | Public Debt | % of GDP

13 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

15 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

30

50

70

90

110

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

5

7

9

11

13

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

-3

-2

-1

0


2015 2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

2000 2005 2010 2015

Finland

Euro area

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016Aktia Bank 9.1 9.2 -2.6 -2.2 62.2 63.7Commerzbank - - - - - -Credit Suisse 8.5 8.1 -2.4 -2.0 61.7 62.4Danske Bank 9.0 8.8 -2.7 -1.5 61.5 62.5DekaBank - - -2.5 -2.2 - -Deutsche Bank 9.0 8.8 -3.3 -2.8 62.0 63.0DZ Bank - - -2.0 -1.8 60.8 61.5EIU 8.9 8.6 -2.7 -2.1 61.6 62.1ETLA Research Institute 8.8 8.5 - - - -Handelsbanken 8.8 8.6 -2.4 -2.0 - -Nordea 9.0 9.0 -3.2 -2.6 62.5 64.5OP-Pohjola Group 8.8 8.7 -2.0 -1.5 61.2 62.2Oxford Economics 8.8 8.5 -2.2 -1.2 60.3 59.7Raiffeisen Research - - -2.5 -2.2 61.2 62.6SEB 8.8 8.5 -2.2 -2.0 61.5 62.0Swedbank - - - - - -UBS 8.6 8.5 -2.5 -2.2 61.2 62.6SummaryMinimum 8.5 8.1 -3.3 -2.8 60.3 59.7Maximum 9.1 9.2 -2.0 -1.2 62.5 64.5Median 8.8 8.6 -2.5 -2.1 61.5 62.5Consensus 8.8 8.7 -2.5 -2.0 61.5 62.4History30 days ago 8.9 8.6 -2.2 -1.8 61.4 62.060 days ago 8.8 8.7 -2.1 -1.7 61.5 62.390 days ago 8.7 8.5 -2.1 -1.7 61.4 62.4

Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Statistics Finland (SF) and Eurostat. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.9 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Source: SF.10 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and forecasts during the last 18 months.11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.12 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.13 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SF.14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and forecasts during the last 18 months.16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: Eurostat.

Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt



April 2015

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance

17 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %

19 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst

18 | Inflation | Q1 12 - Q4 16 | in % Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance

20 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Finland (SF) and the Bank of Finland (BoF). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 17 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in %.

Source: SF.18 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)

in %. Source: SF.19 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.20 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.21 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BoF.22 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last

18 months.

-1

0

1

2

3



0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area

0

1

2

3



-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16

FinlandEuro area

22 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5


2015 2016

Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016Aktia Bank - - -1.5 -1.4Commerzbank - - - -Credit Suisse 0.2 1.0 -1.0 -0.8Danske Bank - - -1.2 -0.7DekaBank 0.6 1.8 -0.7 -0.4Deutsche Bank 0.1 1.3 -1.5 -1.3DZ Bank 1.0 1.3 -1.1 -1.2EIU 0.3 1.1 -0.8 -0.7ETLA Research Institute 0.5 1.1 -1.0 -0.8Handelsbanken - - -1.2 -0.4Nordea - - -1.2 -1.1OP-Pohjola Group - - 0.1 0.6Oxford Economics - - -0.2 -0.1Raiffeisen Research -0.1 1.0 -1.6 -1.4SEB 0.0 0.6 - -Swedbank - - - -UBS 1.4 1.2 -1.1 -0.8SummaryMinimum -0.1 0.6 -1.6 -1.4Maximum 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.6Median 0.3 1.1 -1.1 -0.8Consensus 0.4 1.2 -1.0 -0.7History30 days ago 0.7 1.2 -0.9 -0.660 days ago 1.0 1.4 -1.2 -0.990 days ago 1.2 1.5 -1.4 -1.1Additional ForecastsCentral Bank (Dec. 2014) 1.0 1.4 - -IMF (Oct. 2014) 1.5 1.7 - -Euro. Comm. (Feb. 2015) 0.5 1.3 - -

Prices (HICP) Current Acct var. in % % of GDP

21 | Current Account | % of GDP

-3

0

3

6

9

2000 2005 2010 2015

FinlandEuro area



April 2015

Fact Sheet

Finland in the Region

Population | %-share in Euro area GDP | %-share in Euro area

Finland2.0%

Germany28.1%

France20.7%

Italy15.6%

Spain10.2%

Other23.5%

Finland1.6%

Germany24.3%

France19.2%

Italy18.0%

Spain14.0%

Other22.7%

Russia17.7%

Other EU-27

26.4%

Sweden14.8%

Germany13.9%

Netherlands8.1%

Asia ex-Japan6.9%

Other12.2%

Russia9.9%

U.S.A.6.2%

Other EU-27

22.1%

Sweden11.1%Germany

9.4%

Netherlands6.3%

Asia ex-Japan10.3%

Other24.7%

Other12.6%

Manufact. Products58.9%

Ores & Metals7.8%

Mineral Fuels20.7%

Other4.8%

Manufact. Products74.1%

Ores & Metals5.4%

Mineral Fuels9.7%

Agric. Raw Mat.

6.0%

Trade Structure

Primary markets | share in %

Primary products | share in %

Economic Structure

GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Exports

Exports

Imports

Imports

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Net Exports

Investment

GovernmentConsumption

PrivateConsumption

0

20

40

60

80

1002004-06 2007-09 2010-12

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Other Industry

Services

General Data

Economic Infrastructure

Political Data

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Strengths Weaknesses

• High competitiveness • Ageing population• Technology infrastructure• Highly industrialized economy

.

• Small open economy sensitive to external demand shocks• Highly dependant on energy imports

• Commitment to medium-term fiscal stability

Energy (2012)Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 494Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,221Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 67.5Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 82.0Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 13.5Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 198CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 46.8

Agency Rating OutlookMoody’s: Aaa StableS&P: AA+ StableFitch Ratings: AAA Negative

Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 13.9Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 172Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 91.5Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 30.9

Transportation (2013) Airports: 148Railways (km): 5,944Roadways (km): 78,000Waterways (km): 8,000Chief Ports: Helsinki, Kotka, Naantali

Official name: Republic of FinlandCapital: Helsinki (1.5m)Other cities: Tampere (0.5 m)

Turku (0.5 m)Area (km2): 338,145Population (million, 2014 est.): 5.5Population density (per km2, 2014): 16Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.1Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 79.7Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 0.0Language: Finnish and Swedish Measures: Metric systemTime: GMT+2

Prime Minister: Alexander StubbLast elections: 17 April 2011Next elections: April 2015Central Bank Governor: Erkki Liikanen

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event31 March Euro area February Unemployment31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Ireland Q4 2014 National Accounts31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)31 March Spain January Balance of Payments 31 March Spain February Retail Sales1 April Greece April Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 April Ireland March Investec Manufacturing PMI1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 April Netherlands March NEVI Manufacturing PMI1 April Spain March Markit Manufacturing PMI3 April Ireland March Investec Services PMI7 April Cyprus March Consumer Prices7 April Spain March Markit Services PMI8 April Ireland March Consumer Confidence (**)9 April Germany February Industrial Production9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade9 April Greece February Industrial Production10 April Finland February Industrial Production10 April France February Industrial Production10 April Ireland February Industrial Production (**)10 April Spain February Industrial Production13 April Italy February Industrial Production14 April Euro area February Industrial Production14 April Italy March Consumer Prices 14 April Spain March Consumer Prices15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting15 April Finland February Balance of Payments15 April Finland February Trend Indicator of Output15 April France March Consumer Prices17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices17 April Austria March Consumer Prices20 April Cyprus January Industrial Production20 April Portugal April Leading Indicators20 April Portugal March Industrial Production22 April Netherlands April Consumer Confidence23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April France April Business Confidence23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence24 April Austria February Industrial Production24 April Belgium April Leading Indicators (*)24 April Belgium February Industrial Production24 April Germany April Business Confidence24 April Netherlands April Business Confidence

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Calendar

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

Date Country Event28 April France April Consumer Confidence29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment29 April Austria April Consumer Confidence29 April Austria March Unemployment29 April Austria April Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI29 April Belgium April Consumer Prices29 April Belgium Q4 2014 National Accounts29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence29 April Italy April Business Confidence29 April Spain March Retail Sales30 April Euro area March Unemployment30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Austria Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)30 April Spain February Balance of Payments 30 April Spain February Housing Permits30 April Spain Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)1 May Greece May Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)1 May Ireland April Investec Manufacturing PMI1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI1 May Netherlands April NEVI Manufacturing PMI4 May Spain April Markit Manufacturing PMI

FOCUSECONOMICS


April 2015

Notes and Statements

PUBLICATION NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member.Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members.MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.

COPYRIGHT NOTE

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The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.Gran Via 657E-08010 BarcelonaSpaintel: +34 932 651 040fax: +34 932 650 804e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Euro Area (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

Notes

ASIA PACIFIC |

CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |

EASTERN EUROPE|

EURO AREA |

LATIN AMERICA|

MAJOR ECONOMIES |

MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|

NORDIC ECONOMIES|

Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED

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