Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 07 July 2015

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Spot silver prices in the international markets declined by 0.57 percent and closed at$15.67/oz.Last week, spot silver prices in the international markets traded lower in line withweakness in gold prices ,Strengthening dollar also acted as a negative factor for oil prices

Transcript of Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 07 July 2015

  • MCX DAILY LEVELS

    DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    ALUMINIUM 31 JUL 2015 113 112 111 109 108 107 106 105 104

    COPPER 31 AUG 2015 382 381 380 379 377 376 375 374 373

    CRUDE OIL 20 JUL 2015 3620 3600 3580 3540 3520 3500 3480 3460 3440

    GOLD 05 AUG 2015 26550

    26500 26450 26400 26350 26300 26250 26200 26150

    LEAD 31 JUL 2015 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109

    NATURAL GAS 28 JUL 2015 182 180 178 176 174 172 170 168 166

    NICKEL 31 JUL 2015 790 786 782 778 774 770 766 762 758

    SILVER 03 JUL 2015 36700

    36600 36500 36400 36300 36200 36100 36000 35900

    ZINC 31 JUL 2015 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125

    MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

    WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    ALUMINIUM 31 JUL 2015 116 114 112 109 107 105 102 100 98

    COPPER 31 AUG 2015 386 383 380 377 374 371 369 366 363

    CRUDE OIL 20 JUL 2015 3630 3600 3570 3540 3510 3490 3460 3430 3400

    GOLD 05 AUG 2015 26700 26600 26500 26400 26300 26200 26100 26000 25900

    LEAD 31 JUL 2015 121 119 117 115 112 110 108 106 104

    NATURAL GAS 28 JUL 2015 188 185 182 179 176 173 169 166 163

    NICKEL 31 JUL 2015 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 730

    SILVER 03 JUL 2015 37100 36900 36700 36400 36200 36000 35800 35600 35400

  • NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

    DAILY EXPIRYDATE

    R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 590 588 586 584 582 580 578 576 575

    SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 3680 3572 3464 3396 3356 3288 3248 3140 3032

    RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4517 4425 4333 4277 4241 4185 4149 4057 3965

    JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 17576 17076 16576 16243 16076 15743 15576 15076 14576

    CHANA 20 JUL 2015 4525 4451 4377 4343 4303 4269 4229 4155 4081

    CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4249 4193 4137 4108 4081 4052 4025 3969 3913

    NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

    WEEKLY EXPIRYDATE

    R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 599 596 593 590 587 584 581 579 576

    SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 3965 3757 3549 3439 3341 3231 3133 2925 2717

    RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4727 4569 4411 4316 4253 4158 4095 3937 3779

    JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 19263 18238 17213 16561 16188 15536 15163 14138 13113

    CHANA 20 JUL 2015 4707 4574 4441 4375 4308 4242 4175 4042 3909

    CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4429 4319 4209 4144 4099 4034 3989 3879 3769

  • MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

    INTERNATIONAL NEWS

    BULLIONSpot silver prices in the international markets declined by 0.57 percent and closed at$15.67/oz.Last week, spot silver prices in the international markets traded lower in line withweakness in gold prices ,Strengthening dollar also acted as a negative factor for oil prices

    In the international markets, spot gold prices declined by 0.6 percent last week and closed at$1167.44/oz. On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.65 percent last week and closed atRs.26352/10 gms. Spot gold prices traded negative last week although data showed the U.S.labor market was weaker in June than expected, indicating that the Federal Reserve may holdoff from raising interest rates in September. The market was also following developments in theGreek debt crisis, which has so far failed to trigger strong retail demand for the metal, which isoften perceived as a safe-haven asset. The dollar strengthened and hopes for progress in theGreek crisis revived after the country told international creditors Athens could accept theirbailout offer if some conditions were changed. Good ADP data from the US also resulted inoptimism about labor market in turn exerting downside pressure on the yellow metal. Thechairman of the Euro-group said it was too late to extend Greece's existing bailout and that thecountry's stance toward its creditors and euro zone partners would have to change before a newprogram could be agreed.

    The referendum on Sunday said no to the austerity measures proposed by the creditors whichwould result in stronger dollar and weak euro. A decade after China kicked off a series of goldmarket reforms, plans to establish a yuan price fix mark one of Beijing's biggest step so far tocapitalism on the country's position as the world's top producer and a leading consumer. Whileno immediate threat to the gold pricing dominance of London and New York, the benchmarkcould ultimately give Asia more power over bullion trade, particularly if the yuan becomesfully convertible, industry sources say. In other news from the gold industry, the Reserve Bankof India and the finance ministry are in talks to scrap bulk import license for a gold-silver alloyused by domestic refiners, months after relaxing curbs on gold imports.

    CRUDE OIL

    Last week, NYMEX crude oil prices declined by 4.53 percent and closed at Rs.56.93/bbl ,Onthe MCX, crude prices declined by 7.73 percent and closed at Rs.3520/bbl. Last week oil pricestraded lower as latest data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes. The firm said thenumber of rigs drilling for oil rose by 12 this week, the first rise since December. But with theGreek debt crisis unresolved and Iran nuclear talks ongoing, coupled with Friday's Fourth ofJuly holiday making for a longer-than-usual weekend, some caution prevailed, limiting therally. The sell off was a jolt to crude traders and investors who have seen U.S. prices in fairly

  • tight trading ranges over the past 10 weeks versus sharper moves down in European oil. Oilprices declined on Thursday with WTI and Brent falling by 4.2 and 2.5 percent respectively. Itis the biggest daily drop since April after oil stockpiles in the United States rose for the firsttime in more than two months. With U.S. refined fuel trading leading the rally on bets forstrong summer demand, even as Greece's move toward a debt default threatened to jolt globalmarkets. The extension of a deadline for a nuclear deal that will let Iran export more crude intoan oversupplied market was another bearish factor the market overlooked. U.S. crude oilproduction rose 9,000 barrels a day to 9.701 million barrels a day in April, the highest sinceMay 1971, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in monthly data released Tuesday.Technology for tapping shale oil has helped the U.S. unlock vast reserves of crude that werepreviously inaccessible, boosting production.

    COPPERMCX copper declined by 0.1 percent to close at Rs.370/kg in the last week despite Rupeeappreciation. LME Copper prices declined last week by 0.5 percent on concerns that Greecewill default on its debts and exit the euro zone kept global investors wary and hurt the risksentiments in the markets. Apart from Greece concerns, dollar also gained aground from strongUS consumer confidence data and exerted further pressure on dollar denominated base metals.Comment by Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer that "tentative" signs of wagegrowth and continued job creation gave him confidence that US labor markets would continueto improve, and gradually help push inflation towards the Fed's 2 per cent target. EIA Crudeinventories rose 2.4 million barrels to 465.4 million in the week to June 26. Gasoline stocks fell1.8 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 392,000barrels

    NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

    Indian agri markets

    Near term trend depends on the rainfall activities in the growing states as conflation reportsemerge on the monsoon for the month of july. Short term trend is likely to remain volatile foragri commodities with Indian markets unable to recover strongly as rains persist. Howeverwhen skies clear up, markets are likely to recover strongly with demand expected to risesignificantly at these low rates.A moderately bearish sentiment continued to prevail for the Agricommodities as rains in Central, North and North-West India kept pressure on the marketsentiments.However, prices do seem to find some support at these lower levels and the nearterm trend depends on the rainfall activities in the growing states as conflicting reports emergeon the Monsoon for the month of July.Sentiments weakened for Chana as rains in kharif Pulsesgrowing areas and reports of Govt likely to hold meeting next week on controlling prices, kepttrend down for the commodity. But with prices having fallen a lot, some moderate recovery toois not ruled out as demand picks up in mandis. Prices fell for Jeera as low export demandamidst moderate arrivals in mandis kept sentiments weak for the counter.

  • Refined soya oil

    Supported by rising demand at the spot market, refined soya oil prices rose by 0.26 per cent toRs 586.50 per 10 kg in futures trading on Friday.At the National Commodity and DerivativesExchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 1.55, or 0.26 percent to Rs 586.50 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 2,17,155 lots.Similarly, the oil fordelivery in October contracts edged higher by Rs 1.45, or 0.25 per cent to Rs 572.50 per 10 kgin 72,645 lots.The rise in refined soya oil prices to positions built up by speculators, poweredby firm demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from producing belts.

    Castorseed

    Castor seed futures traded lower at the NCDEX in the midst of weak trend at spot markets dueto slackened demand at prevailing levels. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for aug 2015contract was closed at 4079 down by 0.55 per cent. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4053 tillthe trading. Weak trend at the markets due to absence of buying support at prevailing levelsagainst increased supplies in the market, mainly dragged down the castor seed prices at futurestrade. Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India.

    Jeera

    Jeera prices fell 0.77 per cent to Rs 16,065 per quintal in futures trade on friday today amidhigher supplies from producing belts at the spot market.At National Commodity andDerivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in July contracts fell by Rs 125, or 0.77 per cent, to Rs16,065 per quintal with an open interest of 14,136 lots.Similarly, the spice for delivery inAugust traded lower by Rs 115, or 0.70 per cent, to Rs 16,215 per quintal in 15,612 lots.Beforethat Jeera prices were up 1.07 per cent to Rs 16,105 per quintal in futures trade on wednesdayafter speculators widened positions, triggered by restricted supplies from growing regions.Firmdemand at the spot market also influenced jeera prices.At the National Commodity andDerivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in July shot up by Rs 170, or 1.07 per cent to Rs16,105 per quintal with an open interest of 16,869 lots.The spice for delivery in Augustcontracts gained Rs 150, or 0.93 per cent to Rs 16,290 per quintal in 13,416 lots.Offloading ofpositions by speculators, triggered by higher supplies from producing belts in the physicalmarket, kept pressure on jeera prices at futures trade.

    Chana

    Extending losses for the second straight day, chana prices drifted down by 1.66 per cent to Rs4,159 per quintal in futures trade today on offloading of positions by speculators.Highersupplies from producing belts at the spot market only added to the fall.At the National

  • Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July dropped by Rs 70, or 1.66 percent, to Rs 4,159 per quintal with an open interest of 67,860 lots.Similarly, the commodity fordelivery in August contracts traded lower by Rs 59, or 1.36 per cent, to Rs 4,269 per quintal in1,70,270 lots.Where as on Wednesday Chana prices jumped 1.92% to Rs 4,245 per quintalinfutures trade mostly powered by rising demand at the physical markets.Moreover,expectations of lower output this year also supported the upward movement.At the NationalCommodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in July spurted by Rs 80, or 1.92%to Rs 4,245 per quintal with an open interest of 97,460 lots.Similarly, the commodity fordelivery in August contracts shot up by Rs 50, or 1.16% to Rs 4,345 per quintal in 1,62,490lots.Trimming of positions by speculators, triggered by higher supplies from producing belts,mainly kept pressure on chana prices.

    Mustard seed

    Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.38 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders onaccount of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. Sentiment weakened furtherdue to the sluggish export demand as a result of the weak demand for the commodity.

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