Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

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Transcript of Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

Page 1: Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital
Page 2: Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM

31-OCT-2016 111 110 109 108 108 107 107 106 105

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 319 316 313 312 310 309 307 304 301

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3553 3502 3451 3426 3400 3375 3349 3298 3247

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 30405 30240 30075 30011 29910 29846 29745 29580 29415

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 140 138 136 134 134 132 132 130 128

NATURAL GAS

26-OCT-2015 225 218 211 206 204 199 197 190 183

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 702 691 680 673 669 662 658 647 636

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 42703 42451 42199 42079 41947 41827 41695 41443 41191

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 160 157 154 152 151 149 148 145 142

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016 114 113 112 112 111 111 110 109 108

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 359 345 331 322 317 308 303 289 275

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3865 3707 3549 3475 3391 3317 3233 3075 2917

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 31259 30796 30333 30139 29870 29676 29407 28944 28481

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 148 143 138 136 133 131 128 123 118

NATURALGAS

26-OCT-2015 268 248 228 215 208 195 188 168 148

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 785 749 713 690 677 654 641 605 569

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 44571 43721 42871 42414 42021 41564 41171 40321 39471

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 163 159 155 153 151 149 147 143 139

Monday, 24 October 2016

Page 3: Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL CRUDEOIL NOV BELOW 3349 TGT 3286 SL 3401

BUY GOLD DEC ABOVE 30013 TGT 30346 SL 29724

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL CRUDE OIL OCT BELOW 3300 TGT 3240 SL 3351 - NOT EXECUTED

BUY ZINC OCT ABOVE 151 TGT 153 SL 149 - TGT ACHEIVED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 67.60 67.40 67.20 67 66.80 66.60 66.40 66.20 66

EURINR 26-OCT2016 73.70 73.50 75.30 73.10 72.90 72.70 72.50 72.20 72

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 82.75 82.55 82.35 82.15 82 81.80 81.60 81.40 81.20

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 65.25 64.05 64.75 64.55 64.35 64.20 64 63.80 63.60

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 67.95 67.65 67.35 67.05 66.80 66.50 66.20 65.90 65.60

EURINR 26-OCT2016 74 73.70 73.40 73.10 72.80 72.50 72.20 71.90 71.60

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 83.10 82.80 82.50 82.20 81.90 81.60 81.30 81 80.70

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 65.50 65.20 64.90 64.60 64.30 64 63.70 63.40 63.10

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR NOV ABOVE 82.80 TGT 83.50 SL 82.20

BUY JPYINR NOV ABOVE 64.70 TGT 65.20 SL 64.30

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GBPINR OCT ABOVE 81.70 TGT 82.60 SL 80.90- MADE HIGH OF 82.36

BUY JPYINR OCT ABOVE 64.35 TGT 65 SL 63.75 - CLOSED AT 64.4850

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 676 673 669 667 665 664 662 658 654

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3210 3183 3156 3141 3129 3114 3102 3075 3048

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 4649 4618 4587 4568 4556 4537 4525 4494 4463

JEERAUNJHA 18-NOV-2016 18153 17693

17233

17067

16773 16607 16313 15853 15393

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 3581 3538 3495 3470 3452 3427 3409 3366 3323

TMC 18-NOV-2016 7508 7398 7288 7236 7178 7126 7068 6958 6848

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 702 689 676 671 663 658 650 637 624

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3594 3423 3252 3189 3081 3018 2910 2739 2568

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 4892 4770 4648 4598 4526 4476 4404 4282 4160

JEERAUNJHA 18-NOV-2016 19500 18535 17570 17235 16605 16270 15640 14675 13710

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 3827 3692 3557 3500 3422 3365 3287 3152 3017

TMC 18-NOV-2016 8555 8131 7707 7445 7283 7021 6859 6435 6011

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY REFSOYA NOV ABOVE 670 TGT 680 SL 661

SELL TMC NOV BELOW 7090 TGT 6886 SL 7352

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY SOYABEAN NOV ABOVE 3160 TGT 3220 SL 3095 - NOT EXECUTED

BUY RM SEED NOV ABOVE 4600 TGT 4660 SL 4547 - NOT EXECUTED

Page 5: Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

BULLION✍

Gold steadied on Thursday after three days of gains as the European Central Bank left

interest rates unchanged and maintained the parameters of its 1.74 trillion euro asset

buying scheme. The ECB has provided extraordinary stimulus in recent years in response

to high unemployment, weak growth and ultra low inflation, cutting interest rates into

negative territory and pushing the cost of credit to all-time lows. rates tend to support

gold, though that is often offset by the impact of a weaker euro. The single currency fell

0.3 percent against the dollar on Thursday. Spot gold XAU= was at $1,268.98 an ounce at

1407 GMT, little changed from late on Wednesday, having earlier risen as hgh as

$1,273.81. U.S. December gold futures GCv1 were up 30 cents at $1,270.20. The

precious metal has regained some technical momentum after closing on Wednesday

above its 200-day moving average of $1,267. Gold saw good buying at the time of the

ECB release, "The ECB will continue to have a very accommodative policy at least until

December," U.S. Treasury prices rose as ECB chief Mario Draghi said there was no

discussion at the bank's latest policy meeting on possible changes to its 1 trillion-plus

euro bond purchase program. The euro EUR= edged lower, but stocks rose after the third

and final U.S. presidential debate, which was judged not to have improved Donald

Trump's election hopes. That could also weigh on gold. A win for Democrat Hillary

Clinton is now clearly predicted by polls, and is seen as easing the way for a rise in

interest rates, heavily tipped by a number of Federal Reserve policymakers for December.

India's overseas purchases of gold likely hit a nine-month high in October as a flip in

domestic prices to a premium prompted banks and refiners to resume imports ahead of

the festival season, industry officials told Reuters. gold exports to China hit their highest

since January last month, Swiss customs data showed on Thursday, though a sharp drop

in shipments to Hong Kong meant exports to the two combined were sharply lower than a

year earlier. more gold was shipped directly to China," Research Note. "What is more,

Swiss gold exports to India climbed to their highest level since January, which points to

demand recovering there."

Gold steadied after three days of gains on Wednesday as traders took to the sidelines

ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later in the day which is expected to give

clues about the outlook for euro zone monetary policy. While the bank is not expected to

make any changes to its asset purchase programme until December, investors are seeking

more clarity from President Mario Draghi about speculation that it could begin tapering

its bond purchases. Spot gold XAU= was at $1,269.20 an ounce at 0935 GMT, little

changed from $1,268.90 late on Wednesday, while U.S. December gold futures GCv1

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were up 20 cents at $1,270.10. "The focus today will be the ECB meeting where the

market is looking for clarification on a number of issues," Saxo Bank's head of

commodity research Ole Hansen said. " bond tapering and further signs that additional

measures are off the table." Gold prices are up 1.5 percent this week, on track to snap

three weeks of losses. The precious metal has regained some technical momentum after

closing on Wednesday above its 200-day moving average of $ 1,267. The euro EUR=

held near a three-month low against the dollar ahead of the ECB meeting, offering little

direction to gold. Stocks inched higher after the third and final U.S. presidential debate,

which was judged not to have improved Donald Trump's election hopes. That weighed on

gold. A win for Democrat Hillary Clinton is now clearly predicted by polls, and is seen as

easing the way for a rise in interest rates, heavily tipped by a number of Federal Reserve

policymakers for December. India's overseas purchases of gold likely hit a nine-month

high in October as a flip in domestic prices to a premium prompted banks and refiners to

resume imports ahead of the festival season, industry officials told Reuters. gold exports

to China hit their highest since January last month, Swiss customs data showed on

Thursday, though a sharp drop in shipments to Hong Kong meant exports to the two

combined were sharply lower than a year earlier. more gold was shipped directly to

China," Research note. "What is more, Swiss gold exports to India climbed to their

highest level since January, which points to demand recovering there." Among other

precious metals, silver XAG= was flat at $17.63 an ounce, while platinum XPT= was

down 0.2 percent at $941 an ounce and palladium XPD= was down 0.5 percent at

$632.95 an ounce.

✍ ENERGY

Oil prices were stable on Friday, weighed down by a stronger dollar but supported by

signs fuel markets are balancing after two years of oversupply. The dollar rose to its

highest level since March against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY on Thursday,

potentially crimping demand as fuel becomes more expensive for countries using other

currencies. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was trading at $ 50.62 a barrel at 0050

GMT, 1 cent below its last settlement. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were

up 3 cents at $ 51.41 per barrel. Crude prices fell over 2 percent the previous session on

the back of the soaring dollar. the falls, overall sentiment in oil markets was confident as

financial investors are still keen to pour more money into crude futures, and there are also

mounting signs of a tightening physical oil market. "The near term fundamentals in the

oil market have turned positive. Demand is stabilizing, OPEC production has peaked ,

and global inventory declines imply that the market is more balanced than many believe,"

Neil Beveridge of Bernstein Energy said in a note to clients. The Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries plans to implement a 0.5 to 1 million barrels per day

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production cut after a meeting on Nov. 30.

Oil prices rose early on Wednesday, pushed up by a report of a fall in U.S. crude

inventories and an OPEC statement saying a planned production cut was achievable,

although analysts warned that Chinese economic data could erode the bullish momentum.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $ 50.81 per barrel at

0011 GMT, up 52 cents, or 1 percent, from their last settlement. International Brent crude

futures LCOc1 were at $ 52.14 a barrel, up 46 cents, or 0.9 percent. "The American

Petroleum Institute crude inventory numbers were released . this has given early Asian

trading a bullish start," Crude stockpiles fell 3.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14, to

467.1 million barrels, the API reported late on Tuesday. U.S. Energy Information

Administration is due to release official fuel storage data later on Wednesday. Traders

said oil was also being supported by Mohammed Barkindo, secretary general of the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries , expressing confidence about the

prospects of a planned production cut following an OPEC meeting on Nov. 30. The

Barkindo said “ optimistic about the decision. In its first output cut since 2008, OPEC

plans to reduce production to a range of 32.50 million barrels per day to 33.0 million

barrels per day , compared with record output of 33.6 million bpd in September PRODN-

TOTAL . The group hopes that non-OPEC producers, especially Russia, will cooperate in

a cut. Beyond the immediate oil market, OANDA's Halley said that "plenty of event risk

lurks over the next 24 hours," including Chinese gross domestic product figures, due at

0200 GMT. economy is forecast to have expanded by 6.7 percent in the year to

September, underpinned by government stimulus and a hot property market.

Oil Prices was up 1% Wednesday after weekly industry figures showed a surprise fall in

U.S. crude stocks. U.S. crude was up 69 cents, or 1,37%, at $ 50.98 at 07:00 ET, while

Brent crude gained 1.35% to $52.38. American Petroleum Institute figures Tuesday

showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories of 3.8 million barrels to 467.1 million. Energy

Information Administration figures are due out later Wednesday. Chinese oil output fell in

September, while third-quarter GDP grew 6.7%, lending further support. OPEC secretary

general Mohammed Barkindo said he was optimistic of the cartel agreeing to a planned

output cut next month.The dollar index was lower. A weaker dollar supports demand for

oil.

✍ BASE METAL

The Comex copper price continued its descent Friday, October 21 due to the same

combination of a multi-month high dollar and questions over Chinese demand. Copper

for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange

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fell 0.55 cents or 0.3% to $2.0905 per pound. The contract has now declined nine

consecutive sessions.Yesterday, the International Copper Study Group said the refined

copper market was in a surplus of around 133,000 tonnes in July, although it was in a

deficit of around 264,000 tonnes in January-July.

The trade group added that Chinese refined copper imports were at the lowest monthly

total since April 2013, raising concerns that despite economic expansion of 6.7% in the

third quarter, the world’s largest end-user of copper isn’t consuming as much red metal as

expected.But the country is still producing at a high rate with Chinese refined copper

metal output in September coming in at 725,000 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%,

according to data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Lead prices were down 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in futures trading today as

participants reduced their exposure, triggered by subdued demand from consuming

industries in the spot market and weak global cues. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,

lead for delivery in November month declined by 40 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50

per kg in business turnover of 24 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month

contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.19 per cent to Rs 134.85 per kg in 483 lots.

Marketmen said the weakness in lead futures was due to a sluggish demand from battery-

makers at the domestic markets, apart from weak global cues after China's exports

unexpectedly declined, raising global demand outlook.

Zinc futures fell by 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg today as speculators indulged in

reducing positions amid a weak trend in base metals overseas and low spot demand. Zinc

for delivery in current month shed 45 paise or 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg at the

Multi Commodity Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of 734 lots. The metal for

delivery in November too fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 151.10 per kg in 23 lots.

Analysts attributed the fall in zinc futures to cutting down of bets by participants, tracking

weakness in base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange amid concerns over China's

economy.

Zinc prices declined by Rs 3 per kg at the non-ferrous metal market due to reduced

offtake by consuming industries. Traders attributed the fall in zinc prices to easing

demand from consuming industries. In the national capital, zinc ingot declined by Rs 3 to

Rs 100-106 per kg. Following are today's metal rates : Zinc ingot Rs 100-106, Nickel

plate Rs 823-828, gun metal scrap Rs 227, Bell metal scrap Rs 229, copper mixed scrap

Rs 360, chadri deshi Rs 295. Lead ingot Rs 85, lead imported Rs 91, aluminium ingots Rs

158, aluminium sheet cutting Rs 154, aluminium wire scrap Rs 154 and aluminium

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utensils scrap Rs 152.

Nickel futures traded 1.34 per cent down at Rs 697.10 per kg on Thursday as speculators

reduced their exposure, tracking a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal

Exchange amid muted demand at the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity

Exchange, nickel for delivery this month shed Rs 9.50 or 1.34 per cent to Rs 697.10 per

kg in a business turnover of 2,451 lots.The metal for delivery in November too fell by Rs

8.90 or 1.25 per cent to trade at Rs 703 per kg in 114 lots. Market analysts said the fall in

nickel prices was mostly in tune with a weak trend in the base metals pack at the LME as

an unexpected drop in Chinese exports spurred concern about the outlook for the global

economy.China's exports plummeted 10.0 percent year-on-year to $184.5 billion in

September, government data showed on Thursday.Besides, muted demand from alloy-

makers at the domestic spot markets weighed on metal prices in futures trade

here.Globally, nickel prices retreated by 1.6 per cent at the LME, reversing earlier gains.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Updates✍

ICE raw sugar futures fell to the lowest last week, breaking below a twoweek , trading

range and triggering technical selling after falling below recent session lows. March raw

sugar settled down 0.87 cent, the lowest since Sept. 26. Brazil's main center-south cane

belt will likely turn out a smaller crop next season, despite a bright market outlook for

sugar, industry group Unica said, as the lack of investment in fields in recent years takes

its toll on the crop's potential. As per CFTC data, Speculators again cut their huge sugar

net long stance on ICE Futures U.S. in the week to Oct. 18. Robobank projected a global

deficit of 7.2mt in the upcoming 2016/17 season after a 7.9mt shortfall in the current

season. Meanwhile, Platts Kingsman raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar

deficit in the 2016/17 season (October/September) by 570,000 tonnes to 6.45mt. Earlier,

the International Sugar Organization , forecast a global sugar deficit of 7.05 mt.

Domestic update✍

However, the Cotton Association of India , has retained the cotton crop estimates for the

year 2016-17 season at 336 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The projected balance sheet drawn

by CAI estimated total cotton supply for the cotton season 2016-17 at 398 lakh bales,

while the

domestic consumption is estimated at 309 lakh bales thus leaving an available surplus of

89 lakh bales. As per officials of the Nagpur-based Central Institute for Cotton Research ,

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the sudden spell of heavy rains in cotton-growing regions of Maharashtra, Gujarat,

Telangana and Karnataka during the last 10 days may lift the yield by an additional 10 %.

According to USDA, production in India is forecast at 26.5 million bales 5.77 million

tonnes, up marginally from 2015/16. A rebound in India’s yield is expected to offset a 10-

percent reduction in cotton area this season.

Soybean✍

Soybean futures traded sideways to higher on lower level buying by the stockists and

solvent extractor for new season crop. The mostactive Nov’16 delivery contract closed

0.39% higher for the week to settle at Rs. 3,125 per quintal. The harvesting of soybean in

full swing and supplies are strong in the physical market. As per SEA recent survey

soybean production in 2016-17 forecasted at 10.9 mt, up 58% from the last year.

Rape/mustard Seed✍

Mustard seed futures closed higher last week due to lower level buying and pickup in

industrial demand. The Nov’16 contract ended 0.29% higher last week to settle at Rs.

4,549/quintal. The demand for mustard may pickup in physical market due to

approaching winter. The prices were at lower levels as demand is not picking up from

stockists and oil mill. The country's production of rapeseed is expected to increase by

12.5% to 6.3 mt from a year earlier. There is expectation ofhigher production in the next

season, which encourage traders to sell their stored mustard.

Refined Soy Oil✍

Refined soy oil futures traded quite volatile but closed steady due to higher supplies and

good festive demand in the physical market. The most active Ref Soy oil Nov’16 expiry

contract closed 0.02% higher last week to settle at Rs. 666.0 per quintal. Earlier the prices

have touched higher levels for the month as government increase the base import prices

for crude soyoil by 2.18 % to $845 per tonnes. This is the second increase in a month by

the government. Since January 2016, the base import prices for crude soyaoil increase by

more than 17 % from $720 per tonnes. Government fixes the tariff value every fortnight.

As per SEA data, India September crude soyoil import 469,564 tonnes, an increase of 46

% compared to 321,062 tonnes year ago while, India Nov-Sep crude soyoil import 3.96

mt vs 2.58 mt – an increase of 53% y/y for the current oil year NovOct. Earlier, India has

cut import taxes on both crude palm oil and refined edible oils by 5% points to 7.5 and 15

% respectively.

Crude Palm Oil✍

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CPO Futures traded sideways to lower due to sufficient stocks in the physical market

against steady demand. The most active CPO Oct’16 expiry closed down by 0.09% last

week to settle at Rs. 532.4 per 10 kg. As per SEA data, imports of RBD palmolein

increase to 2.40 mt vs 1.43 mt for Nov-Sep period. India's palm oil imports in 2016/17

are likely by rise 9% to 9.24mt from a year earlier, as a growing population and higher

income levels drive up edible oil consumption. However, palm oil imports by India fell

for a fifth month in September dropped by 5.5% to 564,912 tons in September from a

year earlier. While for the current oil year, CPO imports pegged at 5.23 mt in Nov-Sep,

compared with 6.85 mt a year ago. However, data showed The tariff value of RBD

palmolein decrease 8.2% for the 2nd half of October compared to previous

fortnight.Malaysian palm oil closed higher last week as supported by weaker ringgit and

weaker palm oil production due to delayed result of last year’s El Niño. The output is

expected to see lower-than-average gains, as it is still impacted by the lingering effects of

the crop-damaging El Nino. According to cargo surveyor data, exports of Malaysia’s

palm oil products during October 1 to 20 fell 12.4 % to 800,854 tonnes compared with

914,264 tonnes during September 1 to 20.

Turmeric✍

Turmeric futures closed lower last week due to higher arrivals from the last year stocks.

However, early in the week, the prices have increase due to fresh upcountry demand as

festival season approaching. Turmeric Nov’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed

0.80% down last week to settle at Rs 7,184 per quintal. The demand from the industrial

buyers will support the prices just before new season harvesting. On the export front,

country exported about 42,923 tonnes of turmeric during April-July period up by 34.5%

compared last year, as per department of commerce data. Expectations of increasing

production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are

putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and

Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year. Sowing of turmeric is over

and up by 107 % of normal sowing area.

Page 12: Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

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Page 14: Commodity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital

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