MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM

31-OCT-2016 118 116 114 112 112 110 110 108 106

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 329 324 319 316 314 311 309 304 299

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3622 3535 3448 3393 3361 3306 3274 3187 3100

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 30409 30144 29879 29767 29614 29502 29349 29084 28819

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 141 138 135 134 132 131 129 126 123

NATURAL GAS

26-OCT-2015 241 234 227 222 220 215 213 206 199

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 714 708 702 700 696 694 690 684 678

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 43652 43052 42452 42136 41852 41536 41252 40652 40052

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 156 154 152 151 150 149 148 146 144

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016 120 117 114 113 111 110 108 105 102

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 359 345 331 322 317 308 303 289 275

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3836 3675 3514 3426 3353 3265 3192 3031 2870

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 30942 30517 30092 29874 29667 29449 29242 28817 28392

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 159 151 143 138 135 130 127 119 111

NATURALGAS

26-OCT-2015 263 248 233 225 218 210 203 188 173

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 774 748 722 709 696 683 670 644 618

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 45025 44013 43001 42411 41989 41399 40977 39965 38953

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 178 169 160 155 151 146 142 133 124

Monday, 17 October 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL CRUDE OIL OCT BELOW 3300 TGT 3240 SL 3351

BUY ZINC OCT ABOVE 151 TGT 153 SL 149

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL LEAD OCT BELOW 136.80 TGT 133.80 SL 139.60 - TGT ACHIEVED

SELL NATURAL GAS OCT BELOW 206 TGT 198 SL 2013 - NOT EXECUTED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 67.60 67.40 67.20 67 66.80 66.60 66.40 66.20 66

EURINR 26-OCT2016 74.70 74.50 74.30 74.10 73.90 73.70 73.50 73.30 73.10

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 82.60 82.40 82.20 82 81.80 81.60 81.40 81.20 81

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 65.05 64.85 64.65 64.45 64.25 64 63.80 63.60 63.40

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 68 67.70 67.40 67.10 66.80 66.50 66.20 65.90 65.70

EURINR 26-OCT2016 75 74.70 74.40 74.10 73.80 73.50 73.20 72.90 72.60

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 82.90 82.60 82.30 82 81.70 81.40 81.10 80.80 80.50

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 65.40 65.10 64.80 64.50 64.25 63.95 63.65 63.35 63

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR OCT ABOVE 81.70 TGT 82.60 SL 80.90

BUY JPYINR OCT ABOVE 64.35 TGT 65 SL 63.75

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY JPYINR OCT ABOVE 65.40 TGT 66.10 SL 64.90- NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 709 693 677 671 661 655 645 629 613

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3197 3168 3139 3126 3110 3097 3081 3052 3023

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 4694 4640 4586 4561 4532 4507 4478 4424 4370

JEERAUNJHA 18-NOV-2016 17618 17298

16978 16787 16658

16467 16338 16018 15698

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 3806 3708 3610 3548 3512 3450 3414 3316 3218

TMC 18-NOV-2016 8043 7789 7535 7389 7281 7135 7027 6773 6519

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 714 696 678 672 660 654 642 624 606

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3538 3403 3268 3190 3133 3055 2998 2863 2728

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 4951 4811 4671 4603 4531 4463 4391 4251 4111

JEERAUNJHA

18-NOV-2016 18285 17765 17245

16920 16725 16400 16205 15685 15165

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 3989 3836 3683 3585 3530 3432 3377 3224 3071

TMC 18-NOV-2016 8843 8289 7735 7489 7181 6935 6627 6073 5519

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY SOYABEAN NOV ABOVE 3160 TGT 3220 SL 3095

BUY RM SEED NOV ABOVE 4600 TGT 4660 SL 4547

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY JEERA NOV ABOVE 17100 TGT 17500 SL 16700 - NOT EXECUTED

BUY SOYABEAN NOV ABOVE 3273 TGT 3346 SL 3204 - NOT EXECUTED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

BULLION✍

Gold prices edged lower on Friday as stocks firmed and the US dollar rose on expectations the

Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by the end of the year. Spot gold was down 0.1 per

cent at $1,256.50 an ounce by 0257 GMT. The metal was on track to end the week mostly flat.

US gold futures were steady at $1,257.90 an ounce. "People are happy to buy at these levels.

But, there are a lot of expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, which will be bearish for

gold," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer, Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. There will

also be some uncertainty going into the elections, said Leung adding that if Democratic

presidential candidate Hillary Clinton wins over Republican Donald Trump then the dollar

could strengthen and pull gold down. "Gold looks a bit weaker on charts. We need to see if

prices can hold at $1,240 levels ... then we would be heading towards $1,260 and later to

$1,275," he said. Spot gold may consolidate further in a narrow range of $1,250-$1,266 per

ounce for one day before falling to the October 7 low of $1,241.20, according to Reuters

technical analyst Wang Tao. Markets will next look to Friday's US retail sales data and remarks

from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who will address a Boston Fed economics conference at which

Boston Fed governor Eric Rosengren will also speak. "We think its rate hiking trajectory will

remain very much intact," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said in a note. "As a result, the

dollar will likely push higher going into year-end, offering gold its most formidable headwind

and even countering the impact of weaker equities." The dollar index, which measures the

greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.1 per cent to 97.612. Asian stocks

edged higher and the dollar bounced on Friday as global markets took a breather after being

churned by downbeat Chinese economic data the previous day. Global equity markets had

slumped to a three-month low on Thursday. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's

largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.28 per cent to 961.57 tonnes on Thursday.

Among other precious metals, silver edged 0.3 per cent lower at $17.39 an ounce. The metal

was on track for its third consecutive weekly loss. Platinum was down for the fifth straight

session as it fell 0.3 per cent at $933.75 an ounce. The white metal is down over 3 per cent this

week. Palladium shed 0.3 per cent to $636. 10 after having touched a new three-month low of

$633.22 an ounce. The metal is down over 4 per cent this week.

Demand for gold in India, the world's second-largest consumer, picked up as the festive season

began and discounts narrowed, while demand across rest of the Asia continued to improve.

Gold traded within a narrow range throughout the week, after falling nearly 5 per cent in the

previous week. Gold discounts in India narrowed to the smallest level in nearly nine months as

prices fell during a key Hindu festival Dussehra boosted retail demand. Dealers were offering

gold at $2 an ounce discounts to official domestic prices this week, the narrowest since the

week ending on January 23. Last week discounts were $4. "During Dussehra demand was very

good. Jewellery shops were crowded after a long time," said Fatechand Ranka, a jeweller based

at Pune in western state of Maharashtra. India celebrated the Dussehra festival on Tuesday. "At

the end of the month we have Diwali festival. If prices remain at the current range, then

certainly demand will remain robust even during Diwali." Demand for gold usually strengthens

in the final quarter of the year as India gears up for the wedding season as well as festivals such

as Diwali and Dussehra, when buying the precious metal is considered auspicious.

✍ ENERGY

Oil prices on Tuesday retreated from one-year highs, after OPEC said it was trying to reach a

global agreement to cap production for at least six months amid doubts about how much that

would reduce a crude glut. The International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog of the West,

said it was unclear how rapidly global oil supply could fall in line with demand even if the

OPEC Countries and major producer Russia agreed on a steep output cut. "Net, we find that an

agreement to cut production, while increasingly likely, remains premature given the high supply

uncertainty in 2017," Goldman Sachs said in a note. a deal would be "self-defeating if it were to

target sustainably higher oil prices," Goldman said. Oil has rallied than 13 percent in less than

two weeks since OPEC proposed its first production curbs in eight years. Still, prices remain

about half of mid-2014 highs above $100 a barrel. On Tuesday, Brent crude LCOc1 settled

down 73 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $52.41 a barrel, retreating from a one-year high of $53.73 hit

on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 fell 56 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at

$50.79. Global oil industry officials in Istanbul for the World Energy Conference issued a raft of

statements on OPEC's production plan.

India's purchases of Iranian oil fell 4.1 percent in September, slipping from August when

imports from Tehran hit their highest in at least 15 years, according to ship tracking data and a

report compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts. India, Iran's top customer

after China, still imported about 552,200 barrels per day of oil from the Persian Gulf nation in

September, more than double the same month a year ago following the end of sanctions

targeting Tehran in January. India's oil imports from Tehran in January-September grew 90.5

percent to an average 411,900 bpd oil, the data showed. Iran has been boosting oil shipments to

recoup market share ceded to rivals Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The OPEC producer's total crude oil

and condensate sales likely reached around 2.8 million barrels per day in September, two

sources said, nearly matching a 2011 peak in shipments before sanctions were imposed. along

with Libya and Nigeria, is allowed to produce "at maximum levels that make sense" as part of

any output limits in a surprise deal reached last week by the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after OPEC said its production had risen to the highest level in at

least eight years and following reports of an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles. International

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $51.37 per barrel at 0256 GMT, down 44 cents,

or 0.85 percent, from their previous close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were

down 54 cents, or 1.08 percent, at $49.64 per barrel.Traders said oil markets had come under

pressure after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported a rise in output,

despite the producer cartel having plans, potentially with non-OPEC producer Russia, to cut

output in a bid to rein in a global supply overhang. "Crude responded predictably, with both

Brent and WTI falling," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in

Singapore. OPEC on Wednesday reported its oil production climbed in September to the highest

in at least eight years and raised its forecast for 2017 non-OPEC supply growth, pointing to a

larger surplus next year despite the group's deal to cut output. The producer cartel pumped

33.39 million barrels per day last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary

sources, up 220,000 bpd from August. the absence of any OPEC-Russia headlines to give crude

its daily adrenaline shot, the market looks nervously to the EIA Crude Inventory figures due in

the U.S. this evening," Halley added. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to

publish official storage inventory data later on Thursday. The American Petroleum Institute, a

trade group, reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels to

470.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7. This would be the first rise in oil stocks following

five straight weeks of declines. softer gasoline consumption, flagging demand from China and

the return of refineries from maintenance will likely drive up global stock levels over Q4," BMI

Research said in a note,

✍ BASE METAL

Nickel futures traded 1.34 per cent down at Rs 697.10 per kg on Thursday as speculators

reduced their exposure, tracking a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange

amid muted demand at the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel

for delivery this month shed Rs 9.50 or 1.34 per cent to Rs 697.10 per kg in a business turnover

of 2,451 lots.The metal for delivery in November too fell by Rs 8.90 or 1.25 per cent to trade at

Rs 703 per kg in 114 lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly in tune with

a weak trend in the base metals pack at the LME as an unexpected drop in Chinese exports

spurred concern about the outlook for the global economy.China's exports plummeted 10.0

percent year-on-year to $184.5 billion in September, government data showed on

Thursday.Besides, muted demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot markets weighed on

metal prices in futures trade here.Globally, nickel prices retreated by 1.6 per cent at the LME,

reversing earlier gains.

Lead prices were down 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in futures trading today as participants

reduced their exposure, triggered by subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot

market and weak global cues. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in

November month declined by 40 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 135.50 per kg in business

turnover of 24 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month contracts shed 25 paise, or

0.19 per cent to Rs 134.85 per kg in 483 lots.

Marketmen said the weakness in lead futures was due to a sluggish demand from battery-

makers at the domestic markets, apart from weak global cues after China's exports unexpectedly

declined, raising global demand outlook.

Zinc futures fell by 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg today as speculators indulged in reducing

positions amid a weak trend in base metals overseas and low spot demand. Zinc for delivery in

current month shed 45 paise or 0.30 per cent to Rs 150.45 per kg at the Multi Commodity

Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of 734 lots. The metal for delivery in November too

fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 151.10 per kg in 23 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in

zinc futures to cutting down of bets by participants, tracking weakness in base metals pack at

the London Metal Exchange amid concerns over China's economy.

Zinc prices declined by Rs 3 per kg at the non-ferrous metal market due to reduced offtake by

consuming industries. Traders attributed the fall in zinc prices to easing demand from

consuming industries. In the national capital, zinc ingot declined by Rs 3 to Rs 100-106 per kg.

Following are today's metal rates (in Rs per kg): Zinc ingot Rs 100-106, Nickel plate (4x4) Rs

823-828, gun metal scrap Rs 227, Bell metal scrap Rs 229, copper mixed scrap Rs 360, chadri

deshi Rs 295. Lead ingot Rs 85, lead imported Rs 91, aluminium ingots Rs 158, aluminium

sheet cutting Rs 154, aluminium wire scrap Rs 154 and aluminium utensils scrap Rs 152.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

The recent rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan and lower stocks in international market have boosted

the prospects of jeera, the second largest exported spice from India. The near month jeera

futures prices in Ncdex hovered around Rs 163 per kg on Saturday. But the November and

December futures prices are showing a higher price trend. The export demand going through a

sluggish phase following reduced buying by China and Hanjin shipping company fiasco is

expected to pick up in the months. ``Indian cumin is priced $200 lower than the stock in Syria

and Turkey at $2500 per tonne but there are no takers with China going slow on purchase. The

bankruptcy of Hanjin shipping company also led to delay in shipments affecting exports,’’ said

Dipak Parikh, partner of Kanu Krishna Corporation. The political turmoil in Syria and the

depletion of stocks in that country and Turkey, which are the two major producers of cumin

after India, could lead to a shift in demand to India in the coming months, according to Religare

Broking. The falling rupee is also expected to benefit the Indian exports in the medium term.

The cumin exports at 41,000 tonnes valued at Rs 637.50 crore for three months to June 2016

had shown 55% increase in quantity and 50% rise in value from a year ago. increase in quantity

and 50% rise in value from a year ago. ``The good rains in Gujarat region are good for cumin,

the sowing of which will commence this month. Since the situation is not ideal for coriander,

another spice cultivated in these regions, farmers may shift to cumin,’’ said

KrishnakumarMenon, head of procurement of Eastern Condiments Pvt. Ltd., a major curry

masala company.

ICE cotton closed lower last week on waning fears of crop damage due to Hurricane Matthew

pressured speculators to continue selling their positions. Moreover, Harvest pressure in all key

cotton-producing regions in the United States also weighed down prices. Weekly export sales

report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed net upland sales totaled 158,900

running bales for the week ended Sept. 29, up 73 percent from the previous week, but down 18

percent from the prior four-week average. The U.S. cotton harvest has just begun with 6% of

cotton harvested as of the week ended Sept. 18 compared to a five-year average of 7%. The

U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released showed that 49% of

cotton crops in the US were in good-excellence condition, up marginally from 48 percent a

week ago. Cotton complex prices traded mixed last week as new season cotton started to arrive

in some parts of India. Moreover, the sudden spell of heavy rains in cotton-growing regions of

Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana and Karnataka during the last 10 days may lift the yield by an

additional 10 %, as per officials of the Nagpur based Central Institute for Cotton Research. Last

week, NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed lower by 2.22% while MCX Oct’16 cotton closed

higher by 0.30%. As per, the Cotton Association of India , the apex trade body of the fibre crop,

The trade body has retained the cotton crop estimates for the year 2016-17 season at 336 lakh

bales of 170 kg each. The projected balance sheet drawn by CAI estimated total cotton supply

for the cotton season 2016-17 at 398 lakh bales, while the domestic consumption is estimated at

309 lakh bales thus leaving an available surplus of 89 lakhbales.

✍ JEERA

Jeera futures closed lower during the last week due to lower domestic and export demand.

NCDEX Oct’16 Jeera closed 3.55% down to close at Rs 16,715 per quintal. The physical stocks

are dwindling with the stockists but anticipation of good crop in the next season pressurizes the

prices in the futures market. According to the trade sources, jeera exports may have raise by

29% to 58,000 tonnes in Apr-Aug compared to last year figure of 45,000 tonnes. According

Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in thefirst four months Apr-Jun of 2016-17

is at 51,904 tonnes, higher by 61.5% compared to last year same time. The exports of jeera

during July 2016 decreases 20% m/m to 7,881 tonnes but increase y/y by 27.3%. As per

4thadvance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is pegged at 2.38 lt compared to

1.97 lt in 2014-15. In 2013-14, production was 3.46 lt.

✍ TURMERIC

Turmeric futures closed lower last week on forecast of dry weather across turmeric growing

states during the second half of October, which may be favorable for crop maturing and higher

yield. Turmeric Oct’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 3.84% down to settle at Rs 6,910

per quintal. Lowering export demand in recent months is pressurizing prices The prices of

turmeric are moving sideways to down due to mixed fundamentals of good sowing acreage

coupled with declining supplies and forecast of higher rains in the state of Telangana. The

demand from the industrial buyers will support the prices just before new season harvesting. On

the export front, country exported about 42.923 tonnes of turmeric during April-July period up

by 34,5% compared last year, as per department of commerce data. Turmeric acreage in

Telangana as on 28 Sep was up 12% at 46,000 hectares as compared to 41,000 hectares last

year. Sowing of turmeric is over in 95% of normal area and up by 107 % of normal sowing area.

✍ REFINED SOYA

Refined soy oil closed lower last week due to expectation of sufficient stocks in the physical

market as import duty cut by the government. The most active Ref Soy oil Oct’16 expiry

contract closed 0.41% lower last week. Recently, government increases the tariff value of crude

soya oil to $827/tonnes or 1.22% compared to previous fortnight. Government fixes the tariff

value every fortnight. As per SEA data, India's edible oil imports fell 8.4% to 1.25 mt in August,

while cumulative imports in the first 10 months of the current oil rose 4.0% to 12.04 mt. India

Aug crude soyoil import 333,599 tonnes, lower by 18 % compared to 406,116 tonnes year ago.

Earlier, India has cut import taxes on both crude palm oil and refined edible oils by 5% points to

7.5 and 15 % respectively.

✍ SOYABEAN

Soybean futures closed lower on week due to reports of new season soybean crop from MP,

Rajasthan and Maharashtra. The most-active Oct’16 delivery contract closed 0.31% down to

settle at Rs. 3,225 per quintal. As per Soybean Processors Association of India recent survey

across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan India's soybean production in 2016-17 Jul-

Jun to 10.9 mt, up 58% from the last year. Soybean production is estimated higher in all the

three states, which account for over 80% of the country's output.

U.S. soybean fell as U.S. farmers are expected to boost the pace of harvesting on forecasts of

dry weather in the Midwest. Moreover, Brazil's CONAB forecast that 2016/17 soybean

production in the country, a key exporter, will rise to between 101.9 million and 104 mt from

95.4 mt in the previous marketing year. The USDA reported weekly soybean export sales rose

to 2.180 mt from 1.693 mt a week ago, well above forecasts for 1.2 mt to 1.5 mt.

✍ SUGAR

Sugar prices in India depend to a large extent on supply from the leading producer,

Maharashtra, but the state government and the Indian Sugar Mills Association differ widely in

the estimates of this year’s output, making forecasting prices hazardous. ISMA has pegged

drought ridden Maharashtra’s 201617 sugar production at 62.7 lakh tonnes while the state’s

sugar commissionerate expects output of just 50.28 lakh tonnes. In 2015-16, Maharashtra had

produced 84.3 lakh tonnes of sugar and India’s total output was 251 lakh tonnes. According to

ISMA’s first advance estimate for 201617, India’s sugar output is expected to decline 7% to

233.7 lakh tonnes this year. However, the fall will be nearly 12% to 221.3 lakh tonnes if the

state government’s estimate is taken into consideration.

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