E

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016 114 113 112 112 111 111 110 110 109

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 329 327 325 323 321 319 317 315 313

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3499 3472 3432 3377 3337 3282 3242 3187 3123

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 31600 30419 30139 29859 29576 29299 29019 28739 28459

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 143 142 141 139 138 137 136 135 134

NATURAL GAS 26-OCT-2015 236 229 222 217 209 204 197 192 187

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 709 703 698 689 683 675 669 660 656

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 44265 43650 42982 42423 41742 41183 40502 39943 38653

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 161 158 157 156 155 154 153 151 148

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016 117 115 113 112 111 110 109 107 106

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 333 329 325 323 321 319 317 313 309

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3622 3527 3432 3377 3337 3282 3242 3147 3052

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 31259 30699 30139 29859 29579 29299 29019 28459 27899

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 147 144 141 139 138 136 135 132 129

NATURAL GAS 26-OCT-2015 245 233 221 217 209 205 197 185 173

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 728 713 698 689 683 674 668 653 638

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 57432 52601 47770 44817 42939 39986 38108 33277 28446

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 174 168 162 159 156 153 150 144 138

Monday, 10 October 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL LEAD OCT BELOW 136.80 TGT 133.80 SL 139.60

SELL NATURAL GAS OCT BELOW 206 TGT 198 SL 2013

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 3213 TGT 3291 SL 3139 - TGT ACHEIVED

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31153 TGT 31456 SL 30844 - NOT EXECUTED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 67.60 67.40 67.20 67 66.80 66.60 66.40 66.20 66

EURINR 26-OCT2016 75.60 75.40 75.20 75 74.80 74.60 74.40 74.20 74

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 83.90 83.70 83.50 83.30 83.10 82.90 82.70 82.50 82.302

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 65.70 65.50 65.30 65.10 64.90 64.70 64.50 64.30 64.10

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 67.90 67.60 67.30 67 66.70 66.40 66.10 65.80 65.50

EURINR 26-OCT2016 75.90 75.60 75.30 75 74.70 74.40 74.10 73.80 73.50

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 84.60 84.20 83.80 83.40 83 82.60 82.20 81.80 81.40

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 66 65.70 65.40 65.10 64.80 64.50 64.10 63.80 63.50

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY JPYINR OCT ABOVE 65.40 TGT 66.10 SL 64.90

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 65.70 TGT 65 SL 66.40 - TGT ACHIVED

SELL USDINR OCT BELOW 75.90 TGT 75.20 SL 76.50 - NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 673 668 663 660 658 655 653 648 643

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3367 3322 3277 3249 3232 3204 3187 3142 3097

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 4788 4721 4654 4613 4587 4546 4520 4453 4386

JEERAUNJHA 18-NOV-2016 17778 17528 17278 17137 17028 16887 16778 16582 16278

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 3907 3810 3713 3670 3616 3573 3519 3422 3325

TMC 18-NOV-2016 7830 7580 7330 7170 7080 6920 6830 6580 6330

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 692 680 668 662 656 650 644 632 620

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3558 3451 3344 3283 3237 3176 3130 3023 2916

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 5118 4939 4760 4666 4581 4487 4402 4223 4044

JEERAUNJHA 18-NOV-2016 19832 18922 18012 17503 17102 16593 16192 15282 14372

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 4363 4095 3827 3727 3559 3459 3291 3023 2755

TMC 18-NOV-2016 8030 7720 7410 7210 7100 6900 6790 6480 6170

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA NOV ABOVE 17100 TGT 17500 SL 16700

BUY SOYABEAN NOV ABOVE 3273 TGT 3346 SL 3204

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

BUY JEERA NOV ABOVE 17670 TGT 18093 SL 17273 - NOT EXECUTED

BUY GUARSEED NOV ABOVE 3582 TGT 3659 SL 3508 - CLOSED AT 3586

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE✍

BULLION✍

Gold prices ended lower on Friday, reversing earlier gains, as disappointing U.S. employment data was

seen as unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s plan for raising interest rates before the end of the year.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped $

1.10, or 0.09%, to settle at $1,251.90 a troy ounce by close of trade. The contract slumped to $

1,243.20 earlier in the session, a level not seen since June 7, before climbing to as high as $ 1,267.60

in the immediate aftermath of weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. The U.S. economy

added 156,000 jobs last month, down from a gain of 167,000 in August, while the unemployment rate

ticked up to 5.0%, the Labor Department said Friday. Market analysts had expected 176,000 new jobs

and the jobless rate to hold at 4.9%. Hourly wages for private sector workers rose 2.6% in September

from the same month a year earlier, in line with expectations. Despite the lack lustre report, the

slowdown was not expected to prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates later this year.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 65% chance of a rate hike at December's meeting, the yellow

metal ended with a loss of $64.60, or 4.9%, the worst one-week performance since mid-September

2013, amid growing expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-

yielding assets such as bullion. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a

basket of six major currencies, ended the week at 96.65, down 01% on the day. The index had climbed

to a more than two-month high of 97.21 prior the release of the U.S. jobs report. For the week, the

greenback gained 1.3% amid growing expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by

the end of the year. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as

an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other

currencies. Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery inched up 3.5 cents, or 0.2%, on

Friday to settle at $ 17.38 a troy ounce. The contract fell to $ 17.11 earlier Friday, the lowest since June

24. On the week, silver tanked $ 1.88, or 9.55%. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December

delivery tacked on 0.8 cents, or 0.37%, on Friday to end at $2.163 a pound. For the week, New York-

traded copper prices dropped 3.1 cents, or 2.09%. In the week ahead, market players will be turning

their attention to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting for fresh

clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. U.S. retail sales data will also be in the spotlight, as

investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in

borrowing costs before the end of the year. In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap,

including Chair Janet Yellen, as traders look for more clues on the likelihood of a December rate

hike.Elsewhere, China is to release what will be closely watched trade and inflation data amid ongoing

concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

ENERGY✍

Oil fell about 1 percent on Friday as players took profits on a rally over the past week that propelled

prices nearly 15 percent to four-month highs on hopes of OPEC crude output cuts. Also weighing on

the market was the steady rise in U.S. oil drilling as crude trades at or near $50 a barrel. A closely

watched report by oil services provider Baker Hughes showed U.S. drillers adding rigs in 14 of the

past 15 weeks. Brent crude LCOc1 settled down 58 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $51.93 a barrel. Earlier in

the day, it hit $52.84 cents, three cents short of a one-year high. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude

settled down 63 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $49.81. OPEC is "back in business," determining oil prices,

and only a "brave person" would bet against the cartel, an avowed oil bull, Andy Hall, said in a letter

seen by Reuters to investors in his $ 2.5 billion hedge fund Astenbeck. Friday's drop, Brent and WTI

remain up more than 10 percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wrong-

footed many market participants eight days ago with its first production cut plan in eight years. For the

week, Brent ended up 6 percent while WTI rose 3 percent. But with prices appearing to have gained

too much, too soon - the Relative Strength Index for Brent and WTI was at 69 on Thursday, just below

the overbought level of 70 - there was pressure to liquidate. On Friday, Brent's RSI fell to 67 while

WTI dropped below 58. "This is certainly not a one-way trade and we're seeing the other side acting

now," said Tariq Zahir at Tyche Capital Advisors in New York. "As much as the world wants to believe

OPEC will cut some output, there are doubts what real good it will do to the oversupply," Zahir said.

Since OPEC proposed a production cut plan on Sept. 28 that it said will be formalized at its policy

meeting in Vienna in November, it has embarked on an unusual flurry of meetings to nail down details.

Next week, the group meets with Russia for informal talks in Istanbul to get non-members to

contribute to cuts. hopes to bring its own output down to 32.5 million-33 million barrels per day,

reducing about 700,000 bpd from a global glut estimated by analysts at 1.0 million to 1.5 million bpd.

But the group's tendency to often max out production makes the market wary. Any OPEC move to

extend production curbs to other countries "would not make much sense," a source at Brazil's state oil

company, Petrobras , which produces about 2 million bpd, said on Friday. CHART-WTI & Brent crude

forward curves move above $50 per barrel.

Oil prices dipped on Thursday but remained near June highs reached the previous session when they

were buoyed by a fall in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1

were trading at $49.63 per barrel at 0051 GMT, down 20 cents from their last settlement. International

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 24 cents at $51.62 per barrel. Traders said the price dips early

on Thursday were largely a result of profit-taking following strong price rises the day before. Both

contracts hit their highest levels since June on Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information

Administration said crude stockpiles fell 3 million barrels last week to 499.74 million barrels, and as

international oil markets prepared for a planned output cut by the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries. "Another week another surprise drawdown in crude inventories by the EIA ...

Although crude in storage remains at record highs, this is the third week of unexpected drawdowns in a

row," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in Singapore. He added that

WTI prices would likely be "eyeing the psychological $50" soon, although there was the downside risk

of shale drillers putting rigs back into operation which were mothballed at lower prices.

BASE METALS✍

In the West, particularly in the US, steel capacity has undergone truncation with big-ticket mergers

inevitably leading to shutting down of inefficient mills. Mistry is a strong advocate of supply-side

discipline for "sustenance and viability" of the industry. Consolidation creates the ideal condition for

investments in "product innovation, technology and supply chain efficiencies." Singh says Indian

steelmakers will have to benchmark production costs against the best global norms to fight off the

falling spread between steel prices and raw materials. Predatorily priced steel imports leading to

reduction in domestic prices in the last two financial years did much harm to Indian industry.

Mercifully, New Delhi took appropriate actions, which have proved effective in curbing such imports.

Imposition of anti-dumping duty on imports of flat steel products originating from six countries,

including China, is incontrovertible proof of the domestic industry being harmed by arrivals of

unfairly priced foreign origin steel. But, trade actions alone will not secure a level playing field for

Indian industry, whose global competitiveness is compromised by logistics costs, which compare

unfavourably with other major producers in Asia, and high energy and other cost components of doing

business. Both SAIL and Tata Steel get their entire requirements of iron ore and limited quantities of

coking coal from captive mines. But mandatory contribution to district mineral foundation and

national mineral exploration trust under the Mines and Minerals Amendment Act since January 2015

has increased raw materials cost for steel groups that own mines. To that extent, they suffer erosion in

competitiveness.

Tin and lead prices slipped at the non-ferrous metal market in Mumbai on Monday on stockists selling

amid sluggish demand from alloy industries.Elsewhere, copper armature and brass utensils scrap also

edged down owing to mild demand from industrial users.Select copper and zinc gained due to good

demand from industrial users.Tin prices slid by Rs 3 per kg to Rs 1,445 from last Saturday's close at

Rs 1,448 and lead moved down by Rs 139 as against Rs 142 previously.Copper armature and brass

utensils scrap softened by a Re per kg each to Rs 351 and Rs 277, respectively.However, copper scrap

heavy rose by Rs 2 per kg to Rs 362 from last weekend's level at Rs 360.Copper cable scrap, copper

wire bar and zinc inched up by a rupee per kg each to Rs 367, Rs 395 and Rs 199, respectively.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE✍

Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel might have targeted to keep retail inflation at around five

per cent till March 2017, but as he has pointed out in his maiden policy review, there are many upside

risks to this target.

One such risk, which Patel and his team will have to deal with, might come from chana; prices of the

gram have shown a steady rising trend in the past few weeks. The entire pulses complex has cooled

down — with prices of some like moong even dropping below the minimum support price ,

necessitating government intervention — but chana has stood out from the rest. Data sourced from the

department of consumer affairs showed in the last one month, chana prices in major wholesale markets

of the country have moved up by Rs 2,000-3,000 a quintal largely due to a supply crunch. This was

despite the fact that the government had extended stockholding on pulses by a year. Besides, the

Securities and Exchange Board of India had suspended chana futures. The August Wholesale Price

Index-based inflation rose to a two-year high of 3.74 per cent from 3.55 per cent in July. Inflation in

pulses fell to 34.55 per cent from 35.76 per cent in this period. Traders said in some wholesale

markets, chana was selling at an average of Rs. 8,000 a quintal in August. But in September, it moved

to Rs 9,750 a quintal, with all possibility of the price moving further at least till December-end or

January.

Global food markets are likely to remain balanced with the prices of cereals under pressure on record

high production. Though cereal utilisation is expected to set a new record this year, the growth in

utilisation may not support prices due to large carryover stocks from the previous year. The Food and

Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations in its latest report forecast global cereal production to

set a new record at 2.56 billion tonnes in 2016-17, a rise of 1.5 per cent from the previous year. Along

with carryover stocks, total cereal availability in the world is estimated to surpass consumption in

2016-17 by 664.3 million tonnes, over 25 per cent of the annual consumption."Global food markets

will likely remain 'generally well balanced' in the year ahead, as prices for most internationally traded

agricultural commodities are relatively low and stable. The benign outlook, especially for staple

grains, is poised to lower the world food import bill to a six-year low in 2016-17," the FAO said in its

October report released on Thursday. The FAO raised its forecast for global wheat production to 742.4

million tonnes, led by increases in India, the US and the Russian Federation, which is poised to

overtake the EU as the grain's largest exporter. Total wheat utilisation is projected to reach 730.5

million tonnes, including a big jump in use of lower-quality wheat for animal feed. Global rice

production is predicted to expand for the first time in three years, increasing 1.3 per cent to an all-time

high of 497.8 million tonnes, buoyed by abundant monsoon rain over Asia and sizeable increases in

Africa.

Ending speculation on lowering import duty on sugar to boost supplies, the government on Wednesday

clarified that the country has adequate domestic stocks to meet any extra festival demand and that

prices haven't shown any abnormal rise in the past few months. "All India average retail price of sugar

is hovering at Rs 40-42 a kg. For the past six months, sugar price has been almost stable and the

government has been constantly monitoring the rates," the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food &

Public Distribution stated. The statement comes against the backdrop of a high-level meeting on

Tuesday to review the prices of essential commodities, which also included sugar and pulses. Sugar

prices had risen by Rs 50 paise a kg in some cities of the country owing to supply shortage, triggering

speculation that the Centre might lower the 40 per cent import duty to smoothen supplies, particularly

during the festival season. A Bloomberg analysis also showed that despite not lowering the duty, India

might import less sugar than predicted three months ago after global prices surged to a four-year high

and the first normal monsoon in three years boosted the outlook for domestic crop. The report said that

imports might total 1.25 million tonnes in the year starting October 1, the most since 2009-10

compared with 2.1 mt predicted in June. According to industry sources, India's sugar production in

2016-17 crop year is expected to be 23.37 mt, down from 25.1 mt last year. Industry players also feel

that despite low production in 2016-17, there won't be any shortage of sugar in the country as stocks in

hand are adequate. "With carry-over stock of 7.5 mt from sugar season in 2015-16 and expected sugar

production of 23.4 mt in 2016-17, there will be enough sugar available in 2016-17 to meet the

domestic demand of 25.6 mt in the next season," the Indian Sugar Mills Association had said recently.

There would be carry-forward stocks of 5.2 mt for sugar season 2017-18, it added. Meanwhile, Food

Minister Ramvilas Paswan said the government was keeping a close watch on the prices of sugar,

pulses and edible oil to check hoarding and ensure adequate availability in the market in the festival

season. According to government data, the average retail price of sugar was ruling at Rs 40 a kg on

Wednesday, against Rs 30 a kg in the year-ago period.

In case of pulses, there has been some fall in retail prices in the past few weeks on improved supply

from new crop and imports, but the rates are still higher than last year with gram been sold at Rs 110 a

kg, tur at Rs 120 a kg, urad at Rs 135 a kg, moong at Rs 82 a kg and masoor dal at Rs 85 a kg. Among

edible oils, the retail price of groundnut oil and mustard oil was ruling stable at Rs 135 a kg and Rs

100 a kg, respectively, while soya oil and sunflower oil showed a marginal decline to Rs 85 a kg each.

Uttar Pradesh to limit drop in Indian sugar production Indian sugar production will decline – but not

by as much as some other commentators believe, US officials said, noting a rise in cane plantings in

the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. Many observers have forecast a sharp decline in sugar output in

India, the second-ranked producing country, in 2016-17 thanks to weather. Commodities trader ED&F

Man estimates Indian sugar production falling to 22.5m-23m tonnes, while Rabobank forecast output

of 23.3m tonnes. However, the US

Department of Agriculture's New Delhi bureau estimated output at 23.95m tonnes - albeit a figure still

well below the 27.70m tonnes produced in 2015-16, and indeed the lowest in seven years.

UN pegs grain prices at 10-year low - and cautious on revival prospects The United Nations, citing

"ample" cereals supplies, stoked doubts over prospects for a revival in grain prices - which it revealed

had fallen to

their lowest in 10 years. The UN food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, said that

"international wheat prices are likely to remain stable and relatively low during the 2016-17 season".

For coarse grains, a

group which includes barley, corn and sorghum, it said that "with large export availabilities and weak

export demand prospects, international prices could remain subdued". The comments came even as it

unveiled a

drop in its cereals price index, a sub-set of its much-followed food price index, of 1.9% last month to

its lowest since October 2006.

Tight soybean market 'leaves little margin for output error' – UBS Record US soybean yields alone

will not be enough to sate global demand for the oilseed, with prices very susceptible to any shortfall

in South American prospects, UBS said. "Based purely on supply and demand fundamentals, soybeans

remain most susceptible to US production and South American planting disappointments," said the

bank. And UBS said that of the main traded grains, "soybean demand trends are the most

constructive," thanks to heavy US exports, an limited South American competition. The bank as its

central forecast predicted modest support for soybean prices, seeing them rise to $10.00 cents a bushel

on a one-year horizon, up from the $9.57 ¾ a bushel that

November 2017 futures were priced at on Wednesday.

Sugar price rally dents expectations for Chinese imports The rally in sugar prices, coupled with

improved domestic production prospects, has dented expectations for purchases of the sweetener by

China, the top importer. The US Department of Agriculture's Beijing bureau cut to 6.0m tonnes its

forecast for Chinese sugar imports in 2016- 17 – ditching expectations of a rise in volumes. Indeed,

the downgraded figure was 1.9m tonnes below the USDA's official estimate. The reduced import

estimate "is a result of both higher domestic sugar cane production, a narrowing of domestic and

global sugar price spreads which makes smuggling less attractive, as well as a strengthening of

Chinese enforcement against illegal sugar trade," the bureau said in a

report.

Sugar Rally, Normal Monsoon Rain Seen Trimming India Imports India may import less sugar than

predicted three months ago after global prices surged to a four-year high and the first normal monsoon

in three

years boosted the outlook for domestic crop. Overseas purchases may total 1.25 million metric tons in

the year starting Oct. 1, the most since 2009-10, according to the median estimate of six traders and

analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with 2.1 mt predicted in a June survey. Production is

seen tumbling 10 % to 22.5 mt, the median estimate of another survey of 10 traders and analysts

showed. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates supplies next year will be enough to meet

domestic demand forecast at about 25.6 million tons with

inventory of 7.5 mt. The group says production will drop 6.8 percent to 23.4 million tons in 2016-17.

Stockpiles are sufficient to meet demand and the domestic prices are stable over the past six months,

the Food Ministry said in an e-mailed statement on Wednesday.

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