Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface...
Transcript of Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface...
![Page 1: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Jeff Donnelly
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond
![Page 2: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2099 2099
Similar to COP 21
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Temperatures will continue to warm
![Page 3: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
2099 2099
Similar to COP 21
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Temperatures will continue to warm
How will warming impact tropical cyclone activity?
![Page 4: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
From Knutson et al., 2015 (Journal of Climate) RCP4.5
Models Indicate Increases in the Most Intense Storms
28% increase globally
42% increase in Atlantic
![Page 5: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
![Page 6: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
![Page 7: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes
How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
![Page 8: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Where paleotempestology got its start – Oyster Pond
![Page 9: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Where paleotempestology got its start – Oyster Pond
![Page 10: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
My lab
Cumloden
Cedar Swamp
USGS
![Page 11: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
“[T]he high tides and storm waves of the 1944 hurricane washed completely over the basin,
and marine debris (Fucus and other seaweeds) still hangs in the bushes to a high-water mark
about four feet above present lake level.” Deevey, 1948 (American Journal of Science)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
![Page 12: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
![Page 13: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
![Page 14: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
![Page 15: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
![Page 16: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
![Page 17: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Cedar Peat
till
0
0.01
TW
T (
s)
0.02
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Subbottom sonar survey
Cedar Peat
laminated sediments
w/storm-induced layers
barrier
North South
![Page 18: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Cedar Peat
till
0
0.01
TW
T (
s)
0.02
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Subbottom sonar survey
Cedar Peat
laminated sediments
w/storm-induced layers
barrier
North South
3360+30
![Page 19: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Cedar Peat
till
0
0.01
TW
T (
s)
0.02
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Subbottom sonar survey
Cedar Peat
laminated sediments
w/storm-induced layers
barrier
North South
3360+30
![Page 20: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
![Page 21: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
) Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 22: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 20 40 60 80 100
% coarse
0 0.1
Cs-137 (Bq/g)
0.5
1959
1963
1954
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 23: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 20 40 60 80 100
% coarse
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944
Carol (1954)
0 0.1
Cs-137 (Bq/g)
0.5
1959
1963
1954
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 24: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 25: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
Jonathan Hatch and Isaac Robinson
build first houses in Falmouth 1661
![Page 26: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
Jonathan Hatch and Isaac Robinson
build first houses in Falmouth 1661
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
![Page 27: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
![Page 28: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The 18th century was hyperactive?
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
![Page 29: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The 18th century was hyperactive?
Only two significant hurricanes in
the 18th century in 1727 and 1761!
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
![Page 30: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
![Page 31: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
![Page 32: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
That’s why there were oysters in Oyster Pond!
![Page 33: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
That’s why there were oysters in Oyster Pond!
The inlet may have formed in the 1675 hurricane
soon after European settlement.
![Page 34: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
That’s why there were oysters in Oyster Pond!
The inlet may have formed in the 1675 hurricane
soon after European settlement.
The presence of the inlet likely greatly increased
the sensitivity of the site to the transport of sand
to the basin during the 18th and first half of
the 19th centuries.
![Page 35: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Inlet shown on charts as late as 1863. Emery postulated that gradual infilling of the inlet
by longshore transport closed off the pond resulting in freshening and the decline of
oysters.
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 36: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
So if the intermittent presence of inlets (a dynamic barrier) can significantly alter the
sensitivity of a site to storm-induced sedimentation, how are we to reconstruct a reliable
history of past hurricane strikes?
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 37: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Perhaps a site a further from the barrier?
![Page 38: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Salt Pond, Falmouth MA
![Page 39: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
≥D99
![Page 40: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Donnelly et al., 2015
Earth’s Future
![Page 41: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Mattapoisett Marsh
Salt Pond Reconstruction
![Page 42: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Thatchpoint Bluehole
![Page 43: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Climate Forcing
![Page 44: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Climate Forcing
![Page 45: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Climate Forcing
![Page 46: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Some answers
![Page 47: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Statistically significant variability in intense hurricane
activity has occurred over the last few millennia.
Some answers
![Page 48: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Statistically significant variability in intense hurricane
activity has occurred over the last few millennia.
Many prehistorical intervals of heightened activity have far
exceeded historical levels of activity.
Some answers
![Page 49: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Statistically significant variability in intense hurricane
activity has occurred over the last few millennia.
Many prehistorical intervals of heightened activity have far
exceeded historical levels of activity.
Some evidence for regional coherency, which suggests
regional scale forcings are likely important.
Some answers
![Page 50: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Remaining questions
![Page 51: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
![Page 52: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Is the future climate likely to also yield similar climate states?
![Page 53: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Is the future climate likely to also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
![Page 54: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Is the future climate likely to also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
• What are the implications of changes in hurricane activity for
coastal landforms, ecosystems, and humanity?
![Page 55: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Final Point
The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and
coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not
we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.
![Page 56: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Thank you!
Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel, NOVA in summer 2017,
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
If the 1635 hurricane struck today
![Page 57: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
![Page 58: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
![Page 59: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
![Page 60: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
![Page 61: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) “The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams”
William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) “…a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw” “It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety” “It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle”
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
![Page 62: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
![Page 63: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
1815
1954 1938
Thank you! Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel, NOVA in summer 2017,
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
Providence, RI
![Page 64: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
What if the1635 hurricane hit today?
Falmouth
3.6 m of inundation
![Page 65: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 20 40 60 80 100
% coarse
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944
Carol (1954)
0 0.1
Cs-137 (Bq/g)
0.5
1959
1963
1954
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Only two significant hurricanes in the 18th century in 1727 and 1761
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
![Page 66: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
From Knutson et al., 2015 (Journal of Climate) RCP4.5
What Might the Future Hold?
28% increase globally
42% increase in Atlantic
![Page 68: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Historical record for some locations goes back much further
Charleston, SC Settled 1663
New York, NY Settled 1624
![Page 69: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
![Page 70: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Hugo (1989)
Historical Hurricanes
![Page 71: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
The Great Hurricane of 1752 (September 14)
“The town was likewise overflowed, the tide or sea having rose Ten feet above
the high-water mark at spring tides…”
“All our roads are so filled with trees blown and broke down…”
![Page 72: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
The Spanish Repulse Hurricane of 1686 (September 4)
Thwarted Spanish Invasion from Saint Augustine
“All the ships and vessels in the road and harbors were driven up on land…”
“In some places for 3 or 4 miles together there is scarce one great tree standing.”
“The Indians told the English that they knew of one that raised the water over the
tops of trees where the town now stands.”
![Page 73: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
![Page 74: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
1821 Hurricane
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
![Page 75: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
1821 Hurricane William C. Redfield
1789-1857
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
![Page 76: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
1821 Hurricane William C. Redfield
1789-1857
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
Alfred C. Redfield
1890-1983
![Page 77: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
![Page 78: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
![Page 79: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
17/188 years 14/144 years
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
![Page 80: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy 1821 Hurricane
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy
![Page 81: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
predicted tide
surge+tide
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Wa
ter le
ve
l rela
tive
to m
ea
n s
ea
leve
l in 1
82
1 (m
) 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time October 29, 2012
predicted tide
surge+tide
Wate
r level re
lativ
e to
mean
sea le
vel in
2012
(m)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time September 3, 1821
1821 Sandy
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC
![Page 82: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time October 29, 2012
predicted tide
surge+tide
Wate
r level re
lativ
e to
mean
sea le
vel in
2012
(m)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
predicted tide
surge+tide
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Wa
ter le
ve
l rela
tive
to m
ea
n s
ea
leve
l in 1
82
1 (m
) 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time September 3, 1821
1821
~4 m (13 feet) of surge Sandy
~2.75 m (9 feet) of surge
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC
![Page 83: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Why so much damage from Sandy?
![Page 84: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Future home of
Atlantic City (ca. 1833)
today
Why so much damage from Sandy?
![Page 85: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Po
pu
latio
n
Year
1893 1821
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development
Population growth
in NJ coastal counties
Atlantic
Cape May
Middlesex
Monmouth
Ocean
Why so much damage from Sandy?
![Page 86: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Charleston County, SC Population
Popula
tion
Year CE
![Page 87: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
![Page 88: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
But what if these storms were to strike today?
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
![Page 89: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
![Page 90: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
19
00
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
15
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
92
An
dre
w
19
38
Ne
w E
ng
lan
d
20
04
se
as
on
2
00
5 s
ea
so
n
Sa
nd
y
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
89
Hu
go
19
26
Mia
mi
![Page 91: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
19
00
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
15
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
26
Mia
mi
19
92
An
dre
w
19
38
Ne
w E
ng
lan
d
20
04
se
as
on
2
00
5 s
ea
so
n
Sa
nd
y
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
89
Hu
go
A Hurricane like 1821
would likely be more
than a 107 billion dollar
event (Swiss Re, 2014)
![Page 92: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
Sea-Level Rise
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
fee
t
From Kemp and Horton, 2013 Journal of Quaternary Science
![Page 93: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
Hurricane Records from Blue Holes
![Page 94: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Hurricane Records from Blue Holes
![Page 95: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Record from South Andros Bahamas
Hurricane Event Bed
![Page 96: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Eve
nts
pe
r d
ec
ad
e
Age CE
South Andros, Bahamas - Event Frequency (>6%)
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 97: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
What we don’t know
![Page 98: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
What we don’t know
![Page 99: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Will our future climate also yield similar climate states?
What we don’t know
![Page 100: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Will our future climate also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
What we don’t know
![Page 101: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Will our future climate also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
• What are the implications of changes in hurricane activity for
coastal landforms, ecosystems, and humanity?
What we don’t know
![Page 102: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Final Point
The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and
coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not
we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.
![Page 103: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Final Point
The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and
coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not
we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.
The good news is we have many tools to mitigate
the impacts of hurricanes. And they no longer take us by
surprise because of our excellent forecasting and monitoring
abilities and capacity for communication.
![Page 104: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
Thank you!
Charleston ca. 1820
Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel, NOVA in summer 2017,
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
YHC
![Page 105: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
1752 Charleston Hurricane Hindcast
![Page 106: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
Hurricane Hugo
![Page 107: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy SLOSH Simulation
![Page 108: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
![Page 109: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
![Page 110: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red ≥ cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
![Page 111: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red ≥ cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
![Page 112: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
1821 Hurricane SLOSH Simulation
William C. Redfield
1789-1857
SLOSH input
Track: ~known
Translation speed: ~known (~65 km/hr (40 MPH))
Radius of maximum winds: ?
Intensity: ? Though some inferences
can be drawn from damage
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
![Page 113: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
![Page 114: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
![Page 115: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
![Page 116: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
![Page 117: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
8000 years worth of hurricane tracks (≥Cat 2 intensity) from the Emanuel (2006) model
passing within 60 miles of the Woods Hole (17,354 total storms).
1049 Cat 2 storms (green), 242 Cat 3 storms (yellow) and four Cat 4 storms (red).
No Cat 5 storms were simulated.
Modeling Hurricanes
![Page 118: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Eve
nts
pe
r d
ec
ad
e
Age CE
South Andros, Bahamas - Event Frequency (>6%)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
![Page 119: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 120: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 121: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
1945
1919
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 122: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
1945
1919
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 123: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
![Page 124: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
Atlantic
SST
Tierney
et al.
2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
maly
(C
)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
![Page 125: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
Atlantic
SST
Tierney
et al.
2015
![Page 126: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/126.jpg)
1815
1954 1938
Thank you! Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel and NOVA in 2017
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
![Page 127: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/127.jpg)
Hurricane Records from Blueholes
![Page 128: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/128.jpg)
Conditions for genesis
• Warm tropical waters > 26oC, 80oF
• Minimal Wind Shear Aloft
• Prior disturbance
• Coriolis Deflection
What is a tropical cyclone?
![Page 129: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/129.jpg)
What Might the Future Hold?
N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones
N. Atl. Tropical SST
N. Hem. Mean Temp
From
Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012
Nature Climate Change
![Page 130: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/130.jpg)
Sedimentary archives in blueholes provide the means to reconstruct regional patterns
Hurricane Records from Blueholes
![Page 131: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/131.jpg)
Frequency of hurricanes may increase (particularly intense storms)
Hurricanes
Emanuel, 2013 PNAS RCP8.5
![Page 132: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/132.jpg)
Hurricane Event Bed
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 133: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/133.jpg)
Divine Wind (Kamikaze)
typhoons of 1274 and 1281
Kublai Khan
Woodruff et al., 2009 QSR
Historical Impacts of Tropical Cyclones
![Page 134: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/134.jpg)
1737 - 300,000-350,000 fatalities
1876 - 100,000 fatalities
1897 - 175,000 fatalities
1942 - 40,000 fatalities
1963 - 22,000 fatalities
1965 - 60,000 fatalities
1970 - 300,000-500,000 fatalities (contributed to civil war and eventually Bangladesh independence)
1991 - 138,000 fatalities
Bay of Bengal Cyclone Tragedies
![Page 135: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/135.jpg)
Where do they occur?
![Page 136: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/136.jpg)
Tropical cyclones come in different sizes
![Page 137: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/137.jpg)
Fort Caroline (Jacksonville), FL
A French Florida?
French assault on St. Augustine Florida thwarted by Hurricane in 1565 CE.
The French are expelled from FL by the Spanish.
Historical Impacts of Hurricanes
![Page 138: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/138.jpg)
Questions
• Why so much damage from Sandy?
• What is the relationship with SST and Atlantic hurricane activity
during the historic period?
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
• Is there a relationship between changes prehistoric hurricane
activity and SST
• How well does climate modeling capture historical
and prehistoric hurricane activity? Should we trust them to
predict the future?
![Page 139: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/139.jpg)
Outline
• Background on hurricanes and climate
• Putting Hurricane Sandy in context • What the long term (prehistoric) record tells us
![Page 140: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/140.jpg)
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1635 Struck Again?
![Page 141: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/141.jpg)
What Might the Future Hold?
From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS
Using IPCC AR5 models
Frequency of hurricanes
may increase (particularly
intense storms)
![Page 142: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/142.jpg)
Regional historical compilations can extend the record
back further
e.g., Documentary records from the Lesser Antilles
compiled by Chenoweth and Devine (2008) go back
to the late 17th century
10-20°N @ 61.5°W
![Page 143: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/143.jpg)
Falmouth
What if Hurricane Bob Struck Again?
![Page 144: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/144.jpg)
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 C
oars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
Hurricane-induced
Sand Layers
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
19
91
16
75
1
63
5
0.0000
5.0000
10.0000
15.0000
20.0000
25.0000
30.0000
35.0000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
![Page 145: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/145.jpg)
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0
1
2
3
4
5
Even
ts/c
en
tury
ʎ = 0.9
(0.01)
(0.002)
(0.06)
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1)
0.01
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
0.03
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
![Page 146: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/146.jpg)
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0
1
2
3
4
5
Even
ts/c
en
tury
ʎ = 0.9
(0.01)
(0.002)
(0.06)
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1)
0.01
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
0.03
Basin-wide increases related to warm SST
anomaly in deep tropics
Increased activity driven by warm SST anomaly off East Coast
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
![Page 147: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/147.jpg)
Intensity
![Page 148: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/148.jpg)
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0
1
2
3
4
5
Even
ts/c
en
tury
ʎ = 0.9
(0.01)
(0.002)
(0.06)
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1)
0.01
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
0.03
b - Inlet Formation Outer Banks, NC
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cuum
ula
tive
Events
Landscape
Impacts
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
![Page 149: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/149.jpg)
HMS Hector and HMS Bristol by William Elliott
More than 23,000 fatalities
in Great Hurricane of 1780
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
![Page 150: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/150.jpg)
1900 Galveston, TX Hurricane
Category 4 at landfall
5,000-12,000 fatalities
No warning – weather service predicted track along eastern seaboard
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
![Page 151: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/151.jpg)
1928 San Felipe II or Okeechobee Hurricane
Category 5 in Puerto Rico/Category 4 at FL landfall
Over 4,000 fatalities total
2,500 at Lake Okeechobee
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
![Page 152: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/152.jpg)
Hurricane Mitch in 1998 20,000 fatalities (mostly in Honduras)
Made landfall as a cat 1 but dumped nearly a meter of rain
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
![Page 153: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/153.jpg)
Hurricane Katrina 2005 1833 fatalities
81 billion dollars of damage
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
![Page 154: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/154.jpg)
Hurricane Records from Blueholes
![Page 155: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/155.jpg)
![Page 156: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/156.jpg)
Hurricane Bob (1991) Storm Surge
What about eastern MA?
![Page 157: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/157.jpg)
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
![Page 158: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/158.jpg)
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
~1.4 m of surge at Woods Hole
![Page 159: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/159.jpg)
![Page 160: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/160.jpg)
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide)
Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW)
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW)
Boldt et al. (2010)
0
1
2
3
4
1869
1815
1635
me
ters
1727
1804
2000
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1938
1944
1954
(Carol)
1960 (Donna) 1991 (Bob)
Year
Irene
Sandy
Hypothetical SE New England Sandy landfall
0
5
10
15
fee
t
Woods Hole, MA
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
![Page 161: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/161.jpg)
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes
WHOI
1 fo
ot
Overwash sand layer
Overwash sand layer
Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer
![Page 162: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/162.jpg)
What Might the Future Hold?
Rate of sea-level rise will continue to accelerate
IPCC AR5
![Page 163: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/163.jpg)
Recent Hurricane Trends
![Page 164: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/164.jpg)
Temperatures will continue to warm
2015 2099
What Might the Future Hold?
![Page 165: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/165.jpg)
2015 2099
Similar to COP 21
Temperatures will continue to warm
What Might the Future Hold?
![Page 166: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/166.jpg)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Lin et al., 2014 JGR
![Page 167: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/167.jpg)
![Page 168: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/168.jpg)
Magnussen et al. 2014
Monthly Weather Review
The average depth of the
storm was increased by
7.6 hPa, the wind speeds
were increased by 3.6 m
s–1 and the precipitation
increased by 35%.
Influence of warm SSTs on Sandy
![Page 169: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/169.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles storm counts
Chenoweth and Devine, 2008
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
![Page 170: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/170.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
![Page 171: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/171.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
![Page 172: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/172.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
![Page 173: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/173.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
![Page 174: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/174.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
![Page 175: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/175.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy 2012
68 billion in damage
148 fatalities
![Page 176: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/176.jpg)
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes
![Page 177: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/177.jpg)
Tallahassee
Apalachee Bay
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
![Page 178: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/178.jpg)
Tallahassee
Apalachee Bay
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
![Page 179: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/179.jpg)
Tallahassee
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
![Page 180: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/180.jpg)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Lane et al., 2011 Marine Geo.
Lin et al., 2014 JGR
![Page 181: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/181.jpg)
Eve
nt B
ed
s p
er C
en
tury
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
![Page 182: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/182.jpg)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
![Page 183: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/183.jpg)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Lin et al., 2014 JGR
![Page 184: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/184.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
![Page 185: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/185.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
≥D99
Donnelly et al., 2015
Earth’s Future
![Page 186: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/186.jpg)
John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) “The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams”
William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) “…a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw” “It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety” “It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle”
Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
![Page 187: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/187.jpg)
Hindcast SLOSH model simualtion
Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
![Page 188: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/188.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Donnelly et al., 2015
Earth’s Future
![Page 189: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/189.jpg)
Mattapoisett Marsh
Salt Pond Reconstruction
![Page 190: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/190.jpg)
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Thatchpoint Bluehole
![Page 191: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/191.jpg)
Climate Forcing
![Page 192: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/192.jpg)
Climate Forcing
![Page 193: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/193.jpg)
Climate Forcing
![Page 194: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/194.jpg)
Storm tides in lower Manhattan
1788
1821
1893
1938
1944
1950
1953
1960
1960
1961
1962
1966
1968
1984
1985
1987
1991
1992
1993
1996
1996
Hurricanes
Winter Storm
Maxim
um
Wate
r Level above M
SL (
m)
Date
2012
0
1
2
3
4
![Page 195: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/195.jpg)
1788
1821
1893
1938
1944
1950
1953
1960
1960
1961
1962
1966
1968
1984
1985
1987
1991
1992
1993
1996
1996
Hurricanes
Winter Storm
Maxim
um
Wate
r Level above M
SL (
m)
Date
2012
Storm tides in lower Manhattan
0
1
2
3
4
If 1821 hit at high tide
If Sandy hit at low tide
![Page 196: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/196.jpg)
Regional Patterns
![Page 197: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/197.jpg)
![Page 198: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/198.jpg)
![Page 199: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/199.jpg)
![Page 200: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/200.jpg)
![Page 201: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/201.jpg)
Hurricane Records from Blue Holes
![Page 202: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/202.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
![Page 203: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/203.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
1788
1821
![Page 204: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/204.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
![Page 205: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/205.jpg)
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
Long Beach
![Page 206: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/206.jpg)
Long Beach Washover
Pre Sandy Post Sandy
![Page 207: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/207.jpg)
Long Beach Washover
![Page 208: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/208.jpg)
![Page 209: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/209.jpg)
![Page 210: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/210.jpg)
Research and education to advance understanding of the
ocean and its interaction with the Earth system
for the benefit of society
![Page 211: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/211.jpg)
Research and education to advance understanding of the
ocean and its interaction with the Earth system
for the benefit of society
In other words, how did the ocean end up in the NYC subway?
![Page 212: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/212.jpg)
Research and education to advance understanding of the
ocean and its interaction with the Earth system
for the benefit of society
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
![Page 213: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/213.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Western Atl. SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
17/188 years 14/144 years
![Page 214: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/214.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al.
2015
![Page 215: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/215.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Tro
pic
al C
yc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al.
2015
Lesser Antilles storm counts
Chenoweth and Devine, 2008
![Page 216: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/216.jpg)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Tro
pic
al C
yc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles storm counts
Chenoweth and Devine, 2008
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al.
2015
![Page 217: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/217.jpg)
Questions and some answers
• Why so much damage from Sandy? Coastal population growth
and development in low lying areas
![Page 218: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/218.jpg)
• What is the relationship with SST and Atlantic hurricane activity
during the historic period? Positive correlation falls apart
prior to 20th century
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
• Is there a relationship between changes prehistoric hurricane
activity and SST?
• How well does climate modeling capture historical
and prehistoric hurricane activity? Should we trust them to
predict the future?
![Page 219: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/219.jpg)
Summary
NJ/NYC were fortunate throughout the 20th
century (unfortunately this was a time of
unprecedented coastal development)
![Page 220: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/220.jpg)
Summary
NJ/NYC were fortunate throughout the 20th
century (unfortunately this was a time of
unprecedented coastal development)
Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane
Sandy (and Bob) impacted the area
historically (and prehistorically)
![Page 221: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/221.jpg)
Summary
NJ/NYC were fortunate throughout the 20th
century (unfortunately this was a time of
unprecedented coastal development)
Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane
Sandy (and Bob) impacted the area
historically (and prehistorically)
Over the last two millennium historically
unprecedented intense hurricane activity
occurred during intervals of elevated sea
surface temperatures
![Page 222: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/222.jpg)
Despite cool SSTs in the Little Ice Age the Lesser
Antilles saw heightened levels of hurricane activity
Summary
![Page 223: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/223.jpg)
Summary
Despite cool SSTs in the Little Ice Age the Lesser
Antilles saw heightened levels of hurricane activity
The impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise
and coastal population growth, regardless of
whether or not we experience significant
increases in hurricane landfalls
![Page 224: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/224.jpg)
Current and Future Work
![Page 225: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/225.jpg)
Record from South Andros Bahamas
![Page 226: Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond · 2018-02-01 · Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 . Atlantic SST Tierney et al. 2015 -0.8](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042411/5f29bd73fc40dd75a828e459/html5/thumbnails/226.jpg)
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
0 20 40 60 80 100 % coarse
0 0.1 Cs-137 (Bq/g)
600
800
1000
1600
400
200
0
1800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Dep
th (
cm
)
0 20 40 60 80 100 % coarse
0.5
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944
Carol (1954) 1959
1963
1954
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Age
(ca
l ye
ar
B1
95
0)
Oyster Pond Core 13
1815
1804 1806
1200
1400