Challenges, Risks & Opportunities in a Changing Arctic Environment - State of the Arctic
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Challenges, Risks & Opportunities in a Changing Arctic Environment David W Titley, Rear Admiral USN (ret.), Ph.D. Professor of Practice, Penn State Meteorology Director, Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk September 30, 2015 State of the Arctic
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Transcript of Challenges, Risks & Opportunities in a Changing Arctic Environment - State of the Arctic
Challenges, Risks & Opportunities in a Changing Arctic Environment
David W Titley, Rear Admiral USN (ret.), Ph.D. Professor of Practice, Penn State Meteorology Director, Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk September 30, 2015
State of the Arctic
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• It’s Changing • It’s not a Vacuum • It’s Time to get Ready
The Arc8c is about our: • Security • Access • Sovereignty
Bo>om Line Up Front
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Arc$c Sea Ice (1994 – 2012)
Arc$c Sea Ice Volume (1980 – 2013)
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Arc$c Considera$ons
One Scenario
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Today
Northern Sea Route 2025: 6 weeks open 41’ controlling draft
Transpolar Route 2025: 2 weeks open Deep ocean transit
Northwest Passage 2025: intermittently open 33’ controlling draft
Sea Routes
Arctic Ice Coverage Arc$c Trade Routes: Today & Tomorrow
Crossroads
Sea route distances: Distance from the Bering Strait to Ro>erdam
Courtesy: US Navy
M/V NORDIC ORION Summer Cruise 2013
The Polar Orbiter Strategic High Ground
Separated by a common lexicon: Arctic? High North?
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Arctic Sea Ice Forecast
JPSS
Composite water depth chart created from sparse data
• Ice breakers • Ice hardened USN & USCG vessels • Observa@ons • Naviga@on surveys and infrastructure • Arc@c domain awareness • Bases for support • Port(s) • Energy infrastructure • Communica@ons
Required Capacity
Awareness, Presence & Infrastructure
• Elevate US Arc8c Commitments and Engagement • Build Founda8ons for Sustainable Responsible Economic Engagement • Ensure Safety and Security of Arc8c Oceans and Borders
• Arc8c Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR) • Conven8on on Law of the Sea
• Develop Broad Coopera8on with Russia on Arc8c Resource Use • Forge Long-‐term Public-‐Private Partnerships and new Coordina8ng Mechanisms
A Way Ahead
