U.S. Arctic Research Program Response to a Changing Arctic:

Current and Future GoalsMead Treadwell, Chair

U.S. Arctic Research CommissionARCUS Arctic Forum

Washington, DCMay 15, 2008

Mead Treadwell, Chair Michele Longo Eder

Charles Vörösmarty

Susan Sugai

Duane Laible Tom RoyerVera Kingeekuk Metcalf

Arctic Research in the US

• The U.S. Arctic Research Program is approximately $400 million per year…across at least 15 federal agencies…cooperating with over a dozen nations …using research infrastructure worth billions…and building America’s competitive position

http://www.ipy.org www.arctic.govwww.us-ipy.orgwww.us-ipy.gov

International Polar Year

U.S. Arctic Research Commission

Report on

Goals & Objectives 2007

IARPC meetingApril 27, 2007

USARC Priorities

• Reinvigorate IARPC and Federal process• Revise US Arctic Research Program Plan

(based on USARC’s Goals Report)• Invest in people (extramural programs)• Invest in infrastructure• Progress on 5 thematic objectives

Research Infrastructure• Arctic Observing Network (AON)

• Satellites

• Icebreakers

• Alaska Region Research Vessel

• Submarines

• Alaskan Permafrost Observatory

• Barrow and Bering Sea Cabled Observatories

• Barrow Global Climate Change Research Facility

• Hydrogeological Sensor Systems

• Technologies (Communications and Wireless Networks)

• Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles/Systems

Five Objectives

• Environmental Change of the Arctic & Bering Seas

• Arctic Human Health

• Civil Infrastructure

• Natural Resource Assessment & Earth Science

• Indigenous Languages, Identities, Cultures

Environmental Change of the Arctic & Bering Seas

• Establish AON

• Tie research more closely to CCSP and CCTP

• Tie Monitoring to GEOSS

• Agencies we hope will cooperate:– NSF, NOAA, NPRB, DOI,

NASA, NSSI, State of Alaska

Polar Research BoardPolar Research Board

For PDF version, For PDF version, google “PRB google “PRB AON“AON“

Changes across many sectors of ArcticChanges across many sectors of Arctic

Permafrost degradation - NPRA, Alaska

Have we passed a point of no return?

CO2 fixed at 2020 values

CO2 fixed at 2030 values

CO2 continues to

increase

Preliminary model results suggest • that sea ice can recover if CO2 levels fixed/decline • that a seasonally ice-free Arctic might be avoidable. • May depend on when/for what ice state this occurs.

Arctic Human Health

• Commit to develop a plan with funding targets

• Identify agency leader and workshop venue

• Agencies we hope will cooperate:– HHS (CDC), NIH (Fogarty), EPA, BIA,

ANHTC, State of Alaska, IUCH, State Department

– Appeal to ARCUS: NIH needs “deal flow”

Civil Infrastructure

• Agencies we hope will cooperate:– For civil work and housing: DOT (FAA,

MARAD), Army Corps of Engineers, Denali Commission, State of Alaska, HUD, DOE, NSSI

– For oil spills: OSRI, USCG, NOAA, NSSI– For energy: DOE, State of Alaska– For shipping: MARAD, USCG, State

Department, others to be identified

16 September 200216 September 2002

11 September 2007

INSROP (1999)

Distance: Hamburgto Yokohama(nautical miles)

Northern Sea Route ~ 6,920

Suez Canal ~ 11,073

Panama Canal ~ 12,420

Cape of Good Hope ~ 14,542

Shorter Shipping Distances

July 2001 Arctic Voice and Data

Source: Iridium, LLC

July 2006 Arctic Voice and Data

Source: Iridium, LLC

Having a safe, secure and reliable Arctic shipping regime is vital to the proper development of Arctic resources, especially now given the extent of Arctic ice retreat we witnessed this past summer…We can have such a regime only through cooperation, not competition, among Arctic nations. Denial of passage through international waterways, even though they may be territorial waters, and burdensome transit requirements will not benefit any nation in the long run.” -- Assistant Secretary of State Daniel S. Sullivan, 10/15/2007

Natural Resource Assessment & Earth Science

• Agencies we hope will cooperate:– For mineral resources, mapping and geophysics: DOI

(USGS, BLM, MMS, NPS), NSF, intelligence community (Civil Applications Comm.), State of AK (DNR primarily), DOE, NSSI, native corporations, State Department, NOAA (ECS review), oil industry, mapping industry, and mining industry.

– For Flora and Fauna: NPRB, NOAA, USFWS, Marine Mammal Commission, State of Alaska

2007

Where Is Our ECS?

How Much Are the Resources Worth?

At least $1 trillion in resources

Hydrocarbons (Oil & Gas)• Estimated 10 Billion Barrels• 750,000 square kilometers where sediment thickness exceeds 1 km

Manganese Nodules and Crusts • Highest concentration of manganese nodules and at the highest average grades• Manganese: 182 million tons• Copper: 9 million tons• Nickel: 12 million tons• Cobalt: 5,000 tons

Jack #2 Well in the Gulf of MexicoDrilled in record 7,000 feet of waterAP Photo/Devon Energy Corporation

Reference: Global Non-Living Resources on the Extended Continental Shelf: Prospects at the Year 2000.Values based on June 2000 prices.

Alaska Common wealth: location, people, critters, culture, beauty, land, oil, gas, minerals, timber, fresh water . . .

Indigenous Languages, Identities, Cultures

• Agency leadership

• Regular sources of extramural funding

• Agencies we hope will cooperate: – Smithsonian, NSF, Education, National Endowment for

the Humanities, National Endowment for the Arts, University of Alaska Arctic Languages Center, First Alaskans Institute, Alaska Federation of Natives, Canadian, Russian and Danish partners

• Arctic ownership, sovereignty

• Harvesting Arctic resources

• Global Trade: Trans-Arctic Shipping

• Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation

• Protecting values we share – culture and conservation

TrillionDollar Issues

USARC ECUMENICAL BELIEF

• The United States must maintain its global maritime capability—as a government AND as a Nation

• If the U.S. does not exercise its visible maritime presence in the Arctic Ocean—we cede it to whomever wants it!