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IL PESO DELL’INDUSTRIA AUTOMOBILISTICA SUL PIL,

L’OCCUPAZIONE E L’INNOVAZIONE

Giuseppe CalabreseCeris - Cnr

RILANCIARE IL RUOLO INNOVATIVO DELL’INDUSTRIA AUTOMOBILISTICA EUROPEA IN AMBITO TECNOLOGICO,

ORGANIZZATIVO E DI QUALITÀ DEL LAVORO E IL RUOLO DI AVANZATE PRATICHE DI RELAZIONI INDUSTRIALI

Torino, 7-8 Marzo 2005

CE

RIS

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R

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

DJS AUTO EUTOSTOCK

AUTOMOTIVE IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE

Source: Yahoo

CE

RIS

- CN

R

4,3

19,1

26,7

53

54,2

55

64,5

79,3

80,3

82,5

83,1

88,5

92,8

113,2

156,8

161,7

210,9

0 100 200 300

Finland

Netherlands

Denmark

Belgium

Slovenia

Slovakia

Portugal

Italy

Poland

Austria

United Kingdom

France

Sweden

Spain

Hungary

Germany

Czech Republic

Source: Eurostat

AUTOMOTIVE SPECIALISATION RATIO 2001 (EU-25 = 100)

CE

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R

0 10 20 30 40

Fabricated metal products

Wood and paper products, publishing, printing

Textile, wearing appareal,leather, footwear

Basic metals

Food, beverage and tobacco

Other transport equipment

Non-metallic mineral products

Machinery and equipment

Rubber and plastic products

Medical, precision, opt instruments, watches

Motor vehicles

Office, accounting and computing machinery

Radio, TV and communication equipment

Coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel

Chemical products

Electrical machinery and apparatus

Source: OCDE

PERCENTAGE SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT IN FOREIGN AFFILIATES (1990s)

CE

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R

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Greece

Ireland

Spain

Denmark

UK

Luxembourg

Sweden

Austria

EU (15)

Finland

Belgium

Italy

Germany

Netherlands

Portugal

France

NEW REGISTRATIONS PC IN EUROPE

Source: ACEA

CE

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R

% 1992-2004 % 1992-2004

Greece 150,9 EU (15) 7,6

Ireland 86,6 Finland 2,4

Spain 53,6 Belgium 2,2

Denmark 50,8 Italy - 2,2

UK 27,8 Germany - 2,5

Luxembourg 25,5 Netherlands - 3,7

Sweden 14,9 Portugal - 6,4

Austria 7,9 France - 12,8

Source: ACEA

NEW REGISTRATIONS PC IN EU

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RAUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTIONE ON GDP

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Czech Republic

Hungary

Germany

Korea

Slovak Republic

Sweden

Mexico

Spain

France

Japan

Portugal

Poland

United Kingdom

Italy

United States

Source: OCDE

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RAUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTIONE ON GDP

Source: OCDE

1980 1990 2000 2003

ITALY 3,4% 3,7% 3,8% 3,4%

USA 3,7% 3,7% 4,0% 3,3%

FRANCE 6,1% 6,1% 7,6% 7,5%

GERMANY 7,4% 9,1% 11,2% 11,9%

UK 4,5% 4,3% 3,7% n.a.

JAPAN 9,7% 9,3% 7,3% n.a

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AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTIONE ON GDP

DIF

FE

RE

NC

E 1

980-

2000

LOW HIGH

GR

OW

TH

ST

AB

LE

2% 6% 16%- 4%

1%

13%

Japan

UK

USAItaly

Portugal

Poland

France

SpainSweden Germany

Mexico

Korea

Slovak

Czech

Hungary

Source: OCDE

CE

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R

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Korea

Mexico

Portugal

Spain

Germany

Japan

USA

Sweden

France

Italy

UK

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT AUTOMOTIVE

Source: OCDE

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R

% 1980-LAST

Korea 291,6

Mexico 105,1

Portugal 33,3

Spain 24,6

Germany 24,2

Japan 15,9

USA 14,3

Sweden 12,7

France - 32,8

Italy - 52,8

UK - 57,2Source: OCDE

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN AUTOMOTIVE

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AUTOMOTIVEEMPLOYMENT

AUTOMOTIVELABOUR COSTS

CZECH REPUBLIC 2,37%

FRANCE 1,14% 1,34%

GERMANY 2,60% 4,18%

HUNGARY 1,43%

ITALY 0,92% 0,94%

JAPAN 1,43%

KOREA 1,76%

MEXICO 1,39%

POLAND 0,95%

PORTUGAL 0,46%

SPAIN 1,59% 2,03%

SWEDEN 1,76% 2,20%

UNITED KINGDOM 0,72%

UNITED STATES 0,67% 1,17%Source: OCDE

PERCENTAGE SHARE ON TOTAL

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1

2

3

4

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

CzechRepublic

France

Germany

WesternGermany

Italy

Spain

Sweden

UnitedStates

Source: OCDE

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY(value added on labour costs)

CE

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R 0

1

2

3

4

CzechRepublic

France Germany Hungary Italy Spain Sweden UnitedStates

TOTAL MANUFACTURING MOTOR VEHICLES

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY (2002)(value added on labour costs)

Source: OCDE

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RREAL CONTRIBUTION OF U.S. AUTOMOTIVEAUTOMOTIVE FILIERE- Assemblers and OEMs- Sub-suppliers- Spin-off effects

DEALERSHIP- Assemblers and OEMs- Sub-suppliers- Spin-off effects

TOTAL

DOWNSTREAM EMPLOYMENT

TOTAL

MOTOR VEHICLE USE

U.S. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

950.2001.467.0552.382.9194.800.174

717.400366.200843.000

1.926.600

2.660.077

3.907.000

13.293.851GRAN TOTAL

135.208.000

3,6%

1,4%

2,0%

2,9%

9,8%

Source: University of Michigan

CE

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R

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

PHARMACEUTICALS

AIRCRAFT AND SPACECRAFT

MEDICAL, PRECISION ANDOPTICAL INSTRUMENTS

RADIO, TELEVISION ANDCOMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT

OFFICE, ACCOUNTING ANDCOMPUTING MACHINERY

ELECTRICAL MACHINERY ANDAPPARATUS

MOTOR VEHICLES, TRAILERSAND SEMI-TRAILERS

CHEMICALS PRODUCTS

TOTAL MANUFACTURING

R&D EXPENDITURES ON TURNOVER

IN OECD COUNTRIES

Source: OCDE

CE

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R

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

OECD ITALY GERMANY FRANCE JAPAN

TOTAL MANUFACTURING MOTOR VEHICLES

Source: OCDE

R&D EXPENDITURES ON TURNOVER(1999)

CE

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Czech Republic

Germany

European Union

Sweden

Italy

France

Australia

United States

Japan

Korea

Spain

United Kingdom

Poland

R&D IN AUTOMOTIVE ON R&DIN TOTAL MANUFACTURING

Source: OCDE

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Korea 4%

Sweden 2%

USA38%

Spain1%

Others3% France 6%

UK 3%

Germany 23%

Italy 2%

Japan 18%

Source: OCDE

R&D EXPENDITURE IN AUTOMOTIVE (2001)

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0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325

Fuji Electric CoUTC Fuel Cells

Power PlugTokyo Gas Company

KyoceraToshiba

SanyoDelphi Technologies

Osaka Gas CompanyToto

HyundaiGeneral Motors

SonyAisin

DaimlerChryslerHitachi

Ballard Power SystemsMitsubishi

MatsushitaNissanToyotaHonda

FUEL CELL ASSIGNERS (2003)

Source: DERWENT WORLD PATENTS INDEX

CE

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RFUEL CELL PATENT APPLICATION

BY INDUSTRY SECTOR

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Digital cameras

AeronauticalSpacecraft/satellite

MarinePortable Computing

Celluar PhonesAutomotive

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Source: DERWENT WORLD PATENTS INDEX

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CONCLUSIONS

Measuring automotive as a generator of wealth instead of as a direct employer

Improving continuing education of workers

Balancing state reaserch budgets between research and development

THANKS FOR YOURTHANKS FOR YOURATTENTIONATTENTION