CERES Surface Validation Update Uncertainty Study · Langley%Research%Center%Science%Directorate%...
Transcript of CERES Surface Validation Update Uncertainty Study · Langley%Research%Center%Science%Directorate%...
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
CERES Surface Validation Update &
Uncertainty StudyDavid Rutan1, Seiji Kato2, Fred Rose1, David Doelling2
Bill Smith2, Tom Caldwell1, Cristian Mitrescu1
1 SSAI, Hampton, VA2 NASA Langley Research Ctr, Hampton, VA
• Show how to access valida.on data. • Summarize SYN1Deg & EBAF –surface results. • Describe a study determining sensi.vity of uncertainty
(RMS) to spa.al variability of surface sites.
(All biases are based on Calcula.on – Observa.on)
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
h"ps://ceres-‐tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-‐tool CERES Data Access
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
h"p://ceres-‐iprod.larc.nasa.gov/cave2
Sfc LW Down Bias Sfc SW Up EBAF-‐sfc LW
Down ObservaFon EBAF-‐sfc Ed2.8
MERRA EBAF-‐sfc Ed2.8 MERRA
EBAF-‐surface & MERRA ValidaFon Access
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Available Surface ValidaFon Sites
Surface ValidaFon Summary
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Longwave Surface Irradiance Down (SYN1Deg Ed4) (2000/02 -‐ 2016/12)
Hourly
Monthly
Land
Land
Buoy
Buoy
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Hourly
Shortwave Surface Irradiance Down (SYN1Deg Ed4 ) (2000/02 -‐ 2016/12)
Monthly
Land Buoy
Buoy Land
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Surface Irradiance Down (EBAF-‐Surface Ed4) Land Sites (2000/02 -‐ 2016/12)
Shortwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta SW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
0
200
400
600
Coun
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Obs Mean: 183.4Bias EBAF Ed2.8: -0.87Bias EBAF Ed4: -0.80RMS Ed2.8: 11.51RMS Ed4: 11.54N: 4959.
EBAF Ed4 EBAF Ed2.8
/SCF2/CERES/sarb/rose/maf/data/PRODUCT/V201507/SFC_EBAF.Ed28.V3.A006.V201507.200003-201502.hdf/SCF2/CERES/sarb/rose/Ed4_SFC_EBAF/data/PRODUCT/LM9/SFC_EBAF.Ed4.LM9.200003-201602.hdf
Longwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta LW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
0
100
200
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400
500
Coun
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Obs Mean: 317.9Bias EBAF Ed2.8: 0.82Bias EBAF Ed4: -0.04RMS Ed2.8: 10.00RMS Ed4: 9.75N: 5114.
EBAF Ed4EBAF Ed2.8
/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/ami:/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/pltebf3n4.pro Mon Sep 25 15:04:34 2017
EBAF Ed2.8 & EBAF Ed4 LM9 "Land" Group, 36 Sites
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Surface Irradiance Down (EBAF-‐Surface Ed4) Land Sites (2000/02 -‐ 2016/12)
SW Surface Down Deseasonalized Anomalies
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year/Month
-20
-10
0
10
20
SW A
nom
alie
s (W
m-2
)
0
10
20
30
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# Sites Used Per Month
ρ Ed4 & Obs: 0.98ρ Ed4 & #sites: 0.04
ObservationsEBAF Ed4
LW Surface Down Deseasonalized Anomalies
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year/Month
-20
-10
0
10
20
LW A
nom
alie
s (W
m-2
)
0
10
20
30
40
# Sites Used Per Month
ρ Ed4 & Obs: 0.98ρ Ed4 & #sites: 0.50
ObservationsEBAF Ed4
"Land" Group, 36 Possible Sites
/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/pltebf4ts Fri Jun 30 08:31:45 2017
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Surface Irradiance Down EBAF-‐Surface Ed4 Buoys (2000/02 -‐ 2016/12)
Shortwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta SW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Coun
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Obs Mean: 230.2Bias EBAF Ed2.8: 3.53Bias EBAF Ed4: 4.68RMS Ed2.8: 11.37RMS Ed4: 11.61N: 3145.
EBAF Ed4 EBAF Ed2.8
/SCF2/CERES/sarb/rose/maf/data/PRODUCT/V201507/SFC_EBAF.Ed28.V3.A006.V201507.200003-201502.hdf/SCF2/CERES/sarb/rose/Ed4_SFC_EBAF/data/PRODUCT/LM9/SFC_EBAF.Ed4.LM9.200003-201602.hdf
Longwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta LW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
0
50
100
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250
Coun
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Obs Mean: 393.4Bias EBAF Ed2.8: -0.80Bias EBAF Ed4: 0.74RMS Ed2.8: 5.74RMS Ed4: 5.55N: 1201.
EBAF Ed4EBAF Ed2.8
/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/pltebf3n4 Mon Sep 25 15:06:05 2017
EBAF Ed2.8 & EBAF Ed4 LM9 Buoy Group, 46 Sites
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Surface Irradiance Down EBAF-‐Surface Ed4 Buoys (2000/02 -‐ 2016/12)
SW Surface Down Deseasonalized Anomalies
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year/Month
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
SW A
nom
alie
s (W
m-2
)
0
05
10
15
20
25
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# Sites Used Per Month
ρ Ed4 & Obs: 0.83ρ Ed4 & #sites: 0.32
ObservationsEBAF Ed4
LW Surface Down Deseasonalized Anomalies
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year/Month
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
LW A
nom
alie
s (W
m-2
)
0
05
10
15
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25
30
# Sites Used Per Month
ρ Ed4 & Obs: 0.94ρ Ed4 & #sites: 0.25
ObservationsEBAF Ed4
Buoy Group, 46 Possible Sites
/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/pltebf4ts Thu Jul 6 08:35:42 2017
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
SYN1Deg Longwave Shortwave
All in Wm-‐2 Land Buoy Land Buoy Ed3 Ed4 Ed3 Ed4 Ed3 Ed4 Ed3 Ed4
Observed Mean 317 396 183 235 Bias -‐3.1 1.3 -‐1.9 2.9 1.9 -‐1.2 3.7 -‐1.2 RMS 10.7 10.3 5.0 5.8 11.8 11.2 10.4 9.9 N (Months) 5125 943 5125 2295
EBAF-‐surface Longwave Shortwave All in Wm-‐2 Land Buoy Land Buoy
Ed2.8 Ed4 Ed2.8 Ed4 Ed2.8 Ed4 Ed2.8 Ed4 Observed Mean 318 393 183 230 Bias 0.8 -‐0.0 -‐0.8 0.7 -‐0.9 -‐0.8 3.5 4.7 RMS 10.0 9.8 5.7 5.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.6 N (Months) 5114 1201 4959 3145
Monthly Mean Bias/RMS for SYN1deg & EBAF-Surface
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Spatial Uncertainty Analysis of Surface Validation
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Longwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta LW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
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Obs Mean: 308.8Bias EBAF: -2.30RMS EBAF: 9.43N: 1283.Avg Mean: 309.2Avg Bias: -2.28Avg RMS: 3.41Avg N: 192.0
EBAFAvg Sites 1st
/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/pltha4cstm Mon Sep 25 15:43:16 2017
Shortwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta SW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
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Obs Mean: 183.2Bias EBAF: -3.78RMS EBAF: 8.46N: 1289.Avg Mean: 183.6Avg Bias: -3.76Avg RMS: 4.73Avg N: 192.0
EBAFAvg Sites 1st
/SCF2/CERES/sarb/rose/Ed4_SFC_EBAF/data/PRODUCT/LM9/SFC_EBAF.Ed4.LM9.200003-201609.hdf
EBAF & Regional Avg EBAF NOAA SURFRAD Group, 07 Sites
At times assume a group of sites represent a larger area: drives down the RMS.
EBAF Avg
Mean 308 309
Bias -‐2 -‐2
RMS 9 3
N 1283 192
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180Longitude
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
Latit
ude
/Users/rutan/cave/web/map4cstm2017 Mon Sep 25 15:53:04 2017
EBAF Avg
Mean 183 184
Bias -‐4 -‐4
RMS 9 5
N 1289 192
NOAA GMD Surfrad Sites
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Longwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta LW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
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Obs Mean: 167.6Bias EBAF: 3.23RMS EBAF: 12.06N: 661.0Avg Mean: 169.2Avg Bias: 3.48Avg RMS: 6.37
EBAFAvg Sites 1st
/homedir/drutan/EBAF-val/pltha4cstm Mon Sep 25 15:44:46 2017
Shortwave Surface Bias (EBAF-Observation)
-40 -20 0 20 40Delta SW (Calc-Obs) (W/m2)
0
50
100
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Coun
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Obs Mean: 131.8Bias EBAF: -4.30RMS EBAF: 20.40N: 597.0Avg Mean: 132.7Avg Bias: -4.69Avg RMS: 9.25Avg N: 191.0
EBAFAvg Sites 1st
/SCF2/CERES/sarb/rose/Ed4_SFC_EBAF/data/PRODUCT/LM9/SFC_EBAF.Ed4.LM9.200003-201609.hdf
EBAF & Regional Avg EBAF South Polar Group, 04 Sites
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180Longitude
-90
-60
-30
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Lati
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/Users/rutan/cave/web/map4cstm2017 Mon Sep 25 15:54:39 2017
Four South Polar Sites Represent Antarctica:
EBAF Avg
Mean 168 169
Bias 3 3
RMS 12 4
N 661 192
EBAF Avg
Mean 132 133
Bias -‐4 -‐5
RMS 20 9
N 597 191
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
∆𝐹↓𝑖𝑙 (𝐾 )= ∆𝐹↓𝑖𝑙(𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝) (𝐾 )− ∆𝐹↓𝑖𝑙(𝑜𝑏𝑠) (𝐾 )
𝐹↓𝑖𝑙(𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝;𝑜𝑏𝑠) (𝐾 )= 1/𝐾 ∑1↑𝐾▒𝐹↓𝑖𝑙𝑘
𝐹↓𝑥,𝑅𝑀𝑆 (𝐾 )= [1/𝑁 ∑1↑𝑁▒1/𝐿 ∑𝑙↑𝐿▒[∆𝐹↓𝑖𝑙 (𝐾) ]↑2 ]↑1/2
(𝑥=100 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠)
Simply average over larger and larger groups of sites; randomly select groups 100 times number.
Do land and buoy sites separately.
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Figure15:Root–mean-square(RMS)differenceofcomputedandobservedmonthlymeandownwardshortwave(left)andlongwave(right)irradiancesasafunctionofnumberofsetsofcomputedandobservedmonthlymeanirradiancesusedtocomputemonthlymeandifferences(KinEq.11)forocean(closedbluecircles)andland(closedredcircles).SolidlinesarederivedbyfittingclosedcirclesbyEq.(12).
Number of sites per group (K) Number of sites per group (K)
Plot RMS as a function of increasing group size.𝐹↓𝑥,𝑅𝑀𝑆 (𝐾 )↑2
Shortwave Longwave
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
Figure15:Root–mean-square(RMS)differenceofcomputedandobservedmonthlymeandownwardshortwave(left)andlongwave(right)irradiancesasafunctionofnumberofsetsofcomputedandobservedmonthlymeanirradiancesusedtocomputemonthlymeandifferences(KinEq.11)forocean(closedbluecircles)andland(closedredcircles).SolidlinesarederivedbyfittingclosedcirclesbyEq.(12).
Number of sites per group (K) Number of sites per group (K)
𝐹↓𝑥,𝑅𝑀𝑆 (𝐾 )↑2 = ∆𝐹↓𝑥,𝑏𝑖𝑎𝑠↑2 + ∆𝐹↓𝑥,𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚↑2 /𝐾
Plot RMS as a function of increasing group size.
Land (Wm-‐2) Buoy (Wm-‐2)
Shortwave Longwave Shortwave Longwave
∆𝐹↓𝑥,𝑏𝑖𝑎𝑠↑2 3.2 3.1 7.3 4.2
∆𝐹↓𝑥,𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚↑2
9.6 7.9 5.4 2.0
Shortwave Longwave
CERES Science Team Mee.ng – Sep 26-‐28 2017, Goddard, MD Langley Research Center Science Directorate
h"ps://ceres-‐tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-‐tool
Summary! CERES EBAF & SYN1Deg along with surface
observation can still be accessed at:
! Overall the new EBAF-sfc Ed4 and SYN1Deg Ed4 surface validation shows little change (good thing).
! Uncertainty due to spatial variability in our surface validation sites shows:! Decrease is rapid for the land indicates higher spatial
variability for these sites! Slower over ocean buoys:
! Sites are primarily in tropics, less spatial variability in general! Fewer site with continuous time series adds to less reliable
relationship.