Carbon Sinks and Land Use Competition EUFASOM Uwe A. Schneider Dagmar Schwab INSEA Colleagues.
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Transcript of Carbon Sinks and Land Use Competition EUFASOM Uwe A. Schneider Dagmar Schwab INSEA Colleagues.
Carbon Sinks and Land Use Carbon Sinks and Land Use CompetitionCompetition
EUFASOMEUFASOM
Uwe A. SchneiderUwe A. Schneider
Dagmar SchwabDagmar Schwab
INSEA ColleaguesINSEA Colleagues
Food
Non-Food
Carbon Sinks
Land use competition
Model StructureModel Structure
Resources Land Use
Technologies
Processing Technologies
Products Markets
Inputs
Limits
Supply Functions
Limits
Demand Functions,Trade
Limits
Environmental Impacts
Processing
Markets
Feed mixing
Labor
Pasture
Other Inputs
Cropland
Water
Livestock production
Forestry, Nature,Crop
productionExport
Domestic demand
Import
Model StructureModel StructureForest
Inventory
Objective FunctionObjective Function
Demand
Supply
Price
Quantity
P*
Q*
ResourceRents
ConsumerSurplus
Surplus MaximizationSurplus Maximization
Impl
icit
Sup
ply
and
Dem
and
For
est I
nven
tory
Lan
d S
uppl
yW
ater
Sup
ply
Lab
or S
uppl
yA
nim
al S
uppl
yN
atio
nal I
nput
s
Impo
rt S
uppl
y
Pro
cess
ing
Dem
and
Fee
d D
eman
dD
omes
tic D
eman
dE
xpor
t Dem
and
CS
P
S
Spatial ResolutionSpatial Resolution
Soil textureSoil texture
Stone contentStone content
Altitude levelsAltitude levels
SlopesSlopes
Soil stateSoil state
Political regionsPolitical regions
Ownership (forests)Ownership (forests)
Farm typesFarm types
Farm sizeFarm size
Many crop and tree Many crop and tree speciesspecies
Tillage, planting Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization irrigation, fertilization harvest regimeharvest regime
EUFASOM DynamicsEUFASOM Dynamics
5 (to 20) year time steps5 (to 20) year time steps
State of forests (and soil organic matter)State of forests (and soil organic matter)
Technical progressTechnical progress
Demand & industry growthDemand & industry growth
Resource and global changeResource and global change
Policy scenariosPolicy scenarios
State of the ArtState of the Art
Enormous flexibility (resolve acc. needs)Enormous flexibility (resolve acc. needs)
Index notationIndex notation
– millions of data, variables, and equations millions of data, variables, and equations with sparse programming statementswith sparse programming statements
– ensures consistency (model development)ensures consistency (model development)
Extensive generic equation checks (30 checks Extensive generic equation checks (30 checks per equation)per equation)
Systematic solution analysis (symptom to Systematic solution analysis (symptom to cause)cause)
Positive VariablesPositive VariablesRESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)
FOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) FOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH)
PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH) PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH)
CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH) CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH)
LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH) LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH)
FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH)FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH)
ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH) ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH)
PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH) PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH)
LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)
SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)
TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT) TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)
EquationsEquationsOBJECTIVE_EQU OBJECTIVE_EQU
RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)
RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)
SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE) SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE)
FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH)
LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK)STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK)
EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)
PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)
MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT) MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)
MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT) MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)
DataDataFOREST_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)FOREST_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM)MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM)
TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM)RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM)
STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)
Pre-Solution AnalysisPre-Solution Analysis
Identifies structural errorsIdentifies structural errors– Missing dataMissing data– Illegal dataIllegal data– Wrong signsWrong signs
More than 30 general variable and More than 30 general variable and equation checksequation checks
CropCrop Technology Technology DataData Base Base
RegionRegion AltitudAltitud SoilSoil FarmFarm RotationRotation WaterWater TillageTillage FertilzFertilz ResidueResidue ItemItem UnitUnit ValueValue
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic WheatWheat dt/ha/ydt/ha/y 5050
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic S-BeatS-Beat dt/ha/ydt/ha/y 200200
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic StrawStraw dt/ha/ydt/ha/y 5050
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic LaborLabor hr/ha/yhr/ha/y 3030
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic LandLand ha/ha/yha/ha/y 11
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic DieselDiesel l/ha/yl/ha/y 4040
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic CostsCosts Eur/ha/yEur/ha/y 300300
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic Soil-CSoil-C kg/ha/ykg/ha/y 5050
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic ErosionErosion kg/ha/ykg/ha/y 1515
PolandPoland 0-3000-300 SandSand ES3ES3 W-W-SW-W-S IrrigIrrig Conv.Conv. BasicBasic BasicBasic NO3-LNO3-L kg/ha/ykg/ha/y 2020
Mitigation PotentialsMitigation Potentials
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Car
bon
pric
e (E
uro/
tce)
Mitigation (mmtce)
TechnicalPotentialCompetitive
Potential
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Bill
ion
Eu
ros
Carbon Equivalent (CE) Prices in Euros per Ton
Changes in Welfare Accounts
Gross Ag-Producer Surplus
Emission Payments
Net Ag-Producer Surplus
Ag-Consumer Surplus
GHG Mitigation and MarketsGHG Mitigation and Markets
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Fis
her
ind
ex
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
Crop prices
Livestock prices
Livestock production
Crop productionNet exports
Afforestation PotentialsAfforestation Potentials
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Car
bon
pric
e (E
uro/
tce)
Emission reduction (mmtce)
Technical Potential
Economic PotentialCompetitive
Economic Potential
Forest Policy: Crop EmissionsForest Policy: Crop EmissionsE
mis
sion
s (k
g C
/ha)
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Nitrogen Fertilizer
Ag-Soil Carbon
Irrigation Use
Fossil Fuel Use
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Car
bon
Pri
ce in
Eur
o/m
tce
Total Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce
Competitive Economic Potential
Simult. Technical Potential
Independent Geographic Potential
IndependentTechnical Potential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Car
bon
Pri
ce in
Eur
o/m
tce
Total Agricultural and Forest Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce
Crop Area Fixed
Crop Area and
Prices Fixed
Crop Area and Prices Endogenous
Prices Fixed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ene
rgy
Cro
ps (
mil
lion
hec
tare
s)
Carbon tax on energy (Euro/ton of carbon)
2010 Capacity
2030 Capacity
2050 Capacity
UnrestrictedCapacity
Power Plant Biomass SupplyPower Plant Biomass Supply
Lan
d A
lloc
atio
n
Carbon Tax
Pasture
Traditional Crops
Biomass for Power Plants
Afforestation
OutlookOutlook
Analysis of major FASOM resultsAnalysis of major FASOM results
Downscaling (EFEM, AROPAJ)Downscaling (EFEM, AROPAJ)
Upscaling (GAINS, MESSAGE)Upscaling (GAINS, MESSAGE)
Thanks Thanks