Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
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Transcript of Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
PowerPoint Presentation
Guy DaunceyOctober 2016
CLIMATE SOLUTIONS
ClimaCon 2016, OttawaCanada
This is a short version of part of my larger presentation: www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey/climate-action-now-2016
www.earthfuture.com
The Paris Climate AgreementGreat CollapseGreat Transition
Fossil Fuels65%
Forests 11%
Methane 16%
N2O 6%
Industrial meat & dairy 15%
IPCC 2014Global Emissions
Canadas EmissionsOil & GasTransportBuildingsElectricityIndustryAgricultureOther
Provincial Emissions, 2014
AlbertaOntarioQuebecSaskBC
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action ClustersStrong climate leadership, vision, engagement, education and adaptation
Vision
Globally a Huge Way To Go
Vision
CITY OF VICTORIAjust voted to go100% RENEWABLEVision
Vision
Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030
Vision
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action ClustersStrong climate leadership, vision, engagement, education and adaptation
IndividualNGOMunicipalBusinessCollegeOrganizationProvinceCanadaWho can act on this solution?
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters2. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve 100% renewable energy for electricity
100% Renewable ElectricityPhase out all coal-fired power by 2025Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030Supportive policies for solar, wind & renewablesPolicy & finance supports for geothermal powerR & D investment in grid, DSM, energy storage
100% Renewable Electricity
Regulatory policiesFiscal Incentives and Public Financing
Farewell and Thank You, Fossil FuelsWelcome, Solar Age!
Price of Solar Moduleper Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Renewable Electricity Supply330 TWh/year Needed for 100%:an additional 420 TWh/yearCanadas Electrical Demand2014: 511 TWh2040: 750 TWhAssumes transition to 100% renewables by 2040
100% Renewable ElectricityPhase out all coal-fired power by 2025Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030Feed-in tariffs for solar, wind & renewablesPolicy & finance supports for geothermal powerR & D investment in energy storage
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters3. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable transportation
100% Renewable Energy TransportationActive support for pedestrian citiesMajor investment in safe, separated cyclingMajor investment in transit, LRTZero emissions for all cars/light trucks by 2025/30Solar electrification of railwaysR&D Investment in trucking, shipping, flying
Safe Separated Bike-Lanes
All buses in Barcelona will be electric by 2020. Self-financing over 12 years
Electric bus in Victoria, BC
Australian-Chinese Brighsun Bus500 km on one charge with full load
Real-time electronic bus stops
Car sharing - Car2Go118,000 members in Vancouver
Ambitious targets and incentives for EV uptake and charging network
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
199025% of new sales
1990
Almost 400,000 advance orders placed for new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3.320 kilometres range
The falling price of EV batteries
October 2016
April 2016: Hollands Lower House voted to end purchase of gas/diesel cars by 2025
I M A G I N EAn Electric Vehicles Climate Solutions Treaty40 nations agree toA Zero Emissions Standard All new cars by 2030All light trucks by 2032
Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck300 km range80110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed
Future railwayselectric, 100% renewable energy
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com Railway Electrification in Canada50,000 kilometres14,000 jobs a year over 25 years
Norways Electric Ferry ZeroCat5.7 km route, 20 minute round tripRange will increase as batteries improve
Most air pollution gone
Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet
Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet
Flying: nothing ready yet
100% Renewable Energy TransportationActive support for pedestrian citiesMajor investment in safe, separated cyclingMajor investment in transit, LRTZero emissions for all cars/light trucks by 2025/30Solar electrification of railwaysR&D Investment in trucking, shipping, flying
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters4. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable buildings
100% renewable energy buildingsAll new buildings Passive House design by 2021Major home energy retrofit programCondos energy retrofit programCommercial & Industrial energy retrofit programsUrban Centres District Heat programs
Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss
Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more costwww.bernhardtpassive.com
Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.
Stockholm, 80,000 apartmentsdistrict heat from treated sewage
Vancouver Olympic VillageDistrict Heat from sewage pump station
Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heatGround-source heatStored solar heatBiomass/BiogasHeat exchange ventilator
Dog-source heat
100% renewable energy buildingsAll new buildings Passive House design by 2021Major home energy retrofit programCondos energy retrofit programCommercial & Industrial energy retrofit programsUrban Centres District Heat programs
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters5. Balance an annually increasingprice on carbon with the use of flexible regulations
FLEXIBLE REGULATIONSCARBONPRICINGGREENHOUSEGASES
FLEXIBLE REGULATIONSGREENHOUSEGASESFewer Flex-Regs = Higher Price on Carbon Needs $200 a tonne by 2030 to meet Paris(Is Win-Win Possible? Mark Jaccard et al, 2016)
CARBONPRICINGGREENHOUSEGASESMore Flex-Regs = Lower Price on Carbon
Take your pick: Revenue-neutral carbon tax, balanced by tax reductionsRevenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutionsCarbon fee and dividend, everyone gets annual chequeCarbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon allowances
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters5. Balance an annually increasingprice on carbon with the use of flexible regulations
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century
Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of EnglandClimate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.
Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in CanadaBy Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters7. Targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
ALBERTA OIL SANDSPlan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions. Freeze production at an agreed level.Question licenses for all new pipelines.Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.
The Scientifically Needed Solution Thats Not Happening Yet Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the climate maths.2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in an annual national auction.
A Global Carbon Cap
Fossil fuels importedFossil fuels extractedAn Annual Fossil Fuel Permits AuctionEach year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits
201520202025203020352040Every year5-10% CO2 reduction
201520202025203020352040Every year5-10% renewable energy increase
The Scientifically Needed Solution Thats Not Happening Yet Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the climate maths.2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in an annual national auction.
A Global Carbon CapNOT REMOTELY NEAR THE TABLE YETPOLITICALLY NOT READY
Carbon rationing for individuals and businesses
Carbon rationing for individuals and businesses
NOT REMOTELY NEAR THE TABLE YETPOLITICALLY NOT READY
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters7. Targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters8. Direct Action to ensure no new fossil fuel expansion projects
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters8. Direct Action to ensure no new fossil fuel expansion projects
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas emissions-intensive industries reduce their emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy
INDUSTRYImprove energy efficiency Replace coal and gas with biomass/hydrogenR&D for future green heat
Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas emissions-intensive industries reduce their emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters10. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas farmers, ranchers and foresters reduce their emissions
End DeforestationGlobally and in Canada
1.5Gigatonnes of carbon a year globally
Current logging practices in BC
The livestock industry meat & dairy is causing 15% of global warming
Who, - me?
Me?
Why so big?
N2O from manureMethane from manureMethane from anaerobic digestion (burping)US DataEach molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.
Under discussion in Denmark
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters10. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas farmers, ranchers and foresters reduce their emissions
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess carbon out of the atmosphere
Atmospheric carbon 1850 2016560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 400 ppm
Atmospheric carbon 807 Gt700 GT350 ppm
SustainableForestryOrganicFarmingNewRanching
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess carbon out of the atmosphere
LEARN
EDUCATEACTDREAMINNOVATIONNEWSUPPORTPOLICIESINCENTIVESR & DECO-INVESTMENTECONOMYJOBS PUBLIC, YOU & ME,SCHOOLS, NGOsGOVERNMENTSBUSINESSGREENHOUSEGASESCARBONPRICINGFLEXIBLE REGULATIONSClimate Action - Putting it all together
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters12. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress
Denmark
Denmark
Since Sweden accounts for less than 0.2% of total global emissions, the country could easily have gone unnoticed in the climate debate. Instead, Sweden has chosen to do more than many other countries on issues regarding energy and the climate.
Swedens goals to reduce GHG emissions compared with 1990 by 40% by 2020, and to have a vehicle fleet completely rid of fossil fuels by 2030, are stepping stones to the overarching goal of a society with no net GHG emissions by 2050.
The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters12. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress
The vision of a future in which we have achieved a great transition, avoided collapse, and live in harmony with Nature.
www.journeytothefuture.ca
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
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