Guy Dauncey 2007 Global Climate Change: Seeking Solutions that Work Guy Dauncey 2007 .

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Global Climate Change: Seeking Solutions that Work



I gratefully thank the photographers and illustrators whose work I have so freely used,

and all who have taught me.

Guy Dauncey, March 2007

Please send note of errors and corrections toguydauncey @ earthfuture.com


There are only two problems on Planet Earth.

The first is the sum total of all our social, economic, and environmental problems.

The second is the belief that we cannot solve them.


The whole universe is made of energy, starting with the Big Bang



We are just beginners, however, in learning how to use it.



Millions of years ago, the sun shone on Planet Earth.

Forests grew, with giant trees and ferns.

As they fell, their hydrocarbons were stored away underground.Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


The moral of this story:

“We are just beginners. We make mistakes.

We have unimaginable potential.”


85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


As we burn the fossil fuels…


But wait, there’s a second problem: Peak OilGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007


No new oil or gas is being made, by God or anyone.


Growing Demand + Shrinking Supply = Rising Prices, Energy Insecurity



“Burning all the world’s fossil fuels will dramatically raise global temperatures.”

New Scientist, March 4, 2006


The Age of Fossil Fuels is very short

So what comes next?


Shall we drink and be merry?


Eat another planet?

Alexey Soloviev


Or get on, and solve the problem?


The Next

Great

Energy

Revolution

The Next

Great

Energy

Revolution

2000 2100 2200 2300 240019001800170016001500

FirewoodCoal

Oil&

Gas

Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Biofuels

Nuclear

We are simply entering a new energy revolution



“Every time humankind has switched from an existing fuel to a newer one -

from wood to coal, coal to oil, oil to natural gas - the switch has been associated with

economic progress.

The same will be true for alternative energies such as wind energy, solar power,

cogeneration, and fuel cells.”

- Jim Woehrle and Julie BachMinnesotans for an Energy-Efficient Economy

Sweden plans to end its

dependency on oil by 2020

“No home will need oil for heating … no motorist will be obliged to use

petrol as the sole option available."

More use of biofuelsBiomass district heatingHybrid and ethanol cars

Renewable electricitySweden: 9 million people



“For us as a company, the debate about CO2 is over. We've entered a debate about what we can do about it.”

“You are from the United States. Why don't you join the Kyoto agreement?

You see an initial framework there and you can build on that for our future.”

Jeroen Van Der Veer, CEO Royal Dutch Shell, speaking to Americans attending the Arab Strategy Forum

Dubai, December 4th 2006


HEAT Can we keep warm with sustainable energy?

Super-Efficiency

Everything could use half as much energyGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Home efficiency retrofitUp to 50% energy savings



Solar hot water - evacuated tubes


Solar hot water on the Best Western Inn, Kelowna

www.swisssolartech.com


Solar wall heating



British Columbia goal of

100,000 solar roofs by 202010,000 by 2010

(30% PV, 70% Solar hot water)


Heat Exchange

A geo-floor being laid

Ground-source heatAir-source heatWater-source heatSewer-source heat


Ground Source Heat

2 million installations in 30 countries13% Growth rate pa$16,000 to $24,000


Air-Source Heat Pumps

Cost: $5,000 - $12,000

Energy gain in mild BC:1 unit in, 3 to 3.5 units out.


Water Source Heat-Pumps


Sewer Source Heat-Pumps

In Zurich, Switzerland, 200 metres of sewer

provides a third of the heat for

940 homes

1.5 metres of sewer heats one home

www.rabtherm.de


Solar Thermal 12 months a year

Solar heating 12 months a year


The Energy Centre

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels



BioHeat from Columbia Fuels is a fuel blend consisting of 20% biofuel combined with ultra-low sulfur home heating fuel that can be used in any existing furnace oil system without modification.


Biomass cogeneration

Beddington Zero Energy Development, Sutton, London, UK

Energy Centre


www.docksidegreen.ca

Dockside Green, Victoria

www.docksidegreen.ca


TRANSPORT



Automobile CO2 emissions

What are the Solutions?


The Amazing 1 Horse-Power Car?



Community Ride-Sharing?

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007



How to reduce our use of oil to zero

Step 1: Don’t travel at all


Step 2: Walking“These feet were made for walking,

and that’s just what they’ll do.One of these days these feet are going to

walk the way to school.”

Toronto Walking School BusToronto Walking School Bus

Step 3: Get them wheels rolling…

Guy DaunceyEarthfuture 2007


Too Pooped to Pedal? Go Electric!


Step 4: Share a Ride

Work-based green travel clubs

Community Ride-Sharing Club

www.carpool.ca

www.shareadrive.ca


liftshare: Britain’s national car-sharing company

Members registered with liftshare: 153,41Members obtaining a match: 32%

Trips registered for next 12 months: 33 million

Yukon equivalent would be 15,000 shared trips a year

www.liftshare.org

Step 5: Transit

1. U-Pass for all local residents, paid with municipal taxes2. Transit expansion funded by carbon tax3. Long distance: comfortable, on-board Internet, OJ

Boulder, ColoradoNeighborhood

Eco-Pass $50 to $130 a year



Automobile CO2 emissions

What are the Solutions?


Fuel Efficiency Standards have been frozen for 20 years



Fuel Efficiency versus “Safety”



To show what’s possible……..

Shell Eco-Marathon Fuel-Efficiency Challenge

2003 Team Microjoule, St Sebastien/Loire, France. 10,705 miles per gallon

Supermileage: UBC Contest winners: 3145 mpgGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Future vehicles:which method of propulsion?

Hydrogen?

Biofuel?

or Electric?



Option 1: Green Hydrogen

Use green electricity to produce hydrogen.Possible for cars, trucks, ships, & planes.

Problems: Time - infrastructure - CostNothing planned until 2020

Schatz Energy Research Center


Option 2:Bio-Fuels



Ethanol from cropssugar cane, switchgrass, corn, cellulose wastes


The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with ethanol could feed a person for a whole year.


Area required to power 50% of miles driven in US


Land needed if all vehicles used 10% biofuel:

USA: 30% of croplandEuropean Union: 72% of cropland

World: 35% of cropland



Biodiesel from waste fats

Restaurant fats, animal & fish wastes, crop wastes

Drawback: Limited amount of waste fats



In Zurich, 1200 cars run on Kompogas made from yard

waste & compostables

www.kompogas.chGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Biogas from sewage runs 30 buses in Stockholm

200 buses by 2010Stephen Salter, 2007


...plus ten taxis...Stephen Salter, 2007


...and 220 cars, ramping up to 1,500 in the futureStephen Salter, 2007


Another substitute for oil…..

Thermal Conversion Process

“Anything into oil…”

www.changingworldtech.com


1. Organic and inorganic matter

2. Heat

3. Depolymerization

4. Hydrolysis splits complex molecules into simpler units

5. InorganicMaterial storage

6. Separationof gases, biodiesel,Water and solids

7. Biodiesel storage

“The Thermal Conversion Process mimics the Earth’s natural geothermal process by using water, heat and pressure to transform organic and inorganic wastes into oils, gases, carbons,

metals and ash. Even heavy metals are transformed into harmless oxides.”


Agricultural wastesare almost 50% of the total yearly waste generation in the US: 6 billion tons

With TCP, the 6 billion tons could theoretically be converted into 4 billion barrels of oil.

Global oil consumption: 31 billion barrels a year

US oil consumption: 7 billion barrels a year


Top speed 130 kph (80 mph) Lithium Ion batteries, range 130-160km (75-100 miles)

Recharge in as little as 20-25’ using a 200-volt fast chargerHome recharging in up to 11 hours

Option 3: Electric Vehicles 2006: Mitsubishi MiEV


Tesla EV Roadster (2006)

0 to 60 in 4 seconds 250 miles per charge$92,000 US

1 cent per mile: 10,000 miles = $100/year = $8 per month= 25 cents/day www.teslamotors.com


Take a hybrid, such as the Prius….



Add extra batteries

= “Plug-In Hybrid EV”(PHEV) 100+ mpg

Reduce the Weight

2002 Prototype Volkswagen 1-Litre285 mpg

Weight: 290 kg Regular car: 1400 kg

80% less weight = 80% less fuelGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Hummer: 15 mpg $150/monthRegular car: 25 mpg $100/monthToyota Hybrid EV: 50 mpg $50/monthPlug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV): 100 mpg $25/monthLightweight PHEV: 600 mpg $4/month

= 15 cents a day10,000 miles a year

Wind-power charged @ 8 cents/kWh

“15 cents a day”


Can Electric Vehicles work in the cold?

“..with simple battery heating and insulation, the performance of electric cars is not significantly affected by

cold weather. A 1987 VW EV Jetta experienced a range reduction

of just 0.4% after cold-soaking for 42 hours at -17º C compared to its range at 20º Celsius.”

www.econogics.com

EV Solectria Force in Wisconsin at -17º Celsius

(6º F in the sun)


Car Sharing

What about commercial goods?

Japanese hybrid truck 30% reduced fuel use

Plug-In hybrid = 70% reduced fuel on local trips



Hydrogen made with excess electricity from the alternator injected straight into the combustion

chamber reduces fuel use by 22%

Coming soon…

This could lead to the Hydrogen Enhanced

Plug-in Hybrid EV

Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com


How will airplanes fly?


Hydrogen?The A 310 Airbus designed for hydrogen

With 23,000 flights a day, where will all the hydrogen come from?


Solar ?

The Solar ImpulseOne person - 30,000 ft - 6 layers thermal underwear


Helium and biodiesel?

Slow, but possible


Teleconferencing

Coming soon to every Mac and PC


This assumes

Green Electricity

as the main power for most transport backed with biofuels or hydrogen.

Where will it come from?


#1: EFFICIENCYGreat potential for saving energy

With the best policies, tax credits, and incentives,

we could reduce our demand for power

by 50%.


LED lights only use

1 to 5 watts



#2: SOLAR

Solar Energy40% growth pa50 cents/kWh

Global Potential: Enormous


Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com 12 kW solar shingles, MontanaGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


Muhlhausen Solar Farm, Bavaria, Germany10 MW, 9,000 homes, 30 acres

The Solar Future


Solar PV WallFreiburg,Germany


Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


#3: GEOTHERMAL


MIT Study of deep rocks geothermal electricity

Potential resource: “Truly vast”

Drilling technologies needed: oil and gas industry

Potential commercial scale: 10 to 15 years

Cost of electricity: $3.6 to 9.2 cents kWh


2004 Geothermal Map of

North America


Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark

#4: WINDGlobal potential: Enormous



2005: 60,000 MWGlobal potential: 72 million MW40 x today’s global power needs



Installed capacity:

Germany: 17,000 MWSpain: 10,000 MWUS: 8,000 MWIndia: 4,000 MWCanada: 1,050 MW

www.canwea.org


Pearl River tower Guangzhou, China 69 stories high

Will produce more energy than it uses Wind, solar, natural cooling

Heat from rainwater and humidity

Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Chicago


Tidal energy

BC’s potential: 2,500 MW

Global potential:18% of world’s power needs



500 kW Limpet, Islay, Scotland Pelamis, off Portugal

Wave energy9 cents kWh


Micro-hydroBC’s Potential:

2,530 MW


Biomass power5-12 cents/kWh


Biogas16 million household digesters

12 - 20 cents kWh

Anaerobic digestion and co-generation creates electricity, heat, and fertilizer


Investment in Renewable Energy

1995: $7 billion

2004: $30 billion

= 20-25% of total power investment


Today 2020

Wind (onshore) 3 - 5 2 - 3

Wind (offshore) 6 - 10 2 - 5

Solar PV 20 - 80 4 - 10

Wave 8 - 20 5 - 7

Tidal 8 - 15 8 - 15

Biomass 5 - 15 4 - 10

Geothermal 2 - 10 1 - 8

US cents per kWh

The Price of Sustainable Energy



When the wind’s not blowing, how

can we firm up intermittent

power?


1. Reservoir Storage

When wind turbines generate more power than needed,

hydro generation is cut back and the surplus wind power

Is stored behind the dams.


2. Flow Batteries

A regular battery is “full” when its chemicals have absorbed all the charge.

A flow battery allows the charged chemicals to flow into a storage tank, enabling the battery to store more power.

On King Island, near Tasmania, south Australia, this has enabled the increased use of wind in the grid from 10% to 40%.


3. Cold Storage

Refrigerated warehouses use power day and night.

When the temperature of stored frozen products is allowed to vary by 1º C,

the warehouses can act as a 50,000 MWh batterystoring more than twice the projected average hourly

wind power production in the EU by 2010.

Night Wind project, Netherlands


4. Electric Cars (Vehicle to Grid V2G)

1 million V2G vehicles could generate up to 10,000 MW of electricity = 20 power plants2001 study by AC Propulsion, EV maker in San Dimas, Calif.

Tying it all Together: The Distributed Grid

Bonneville Power Administration, WA



What About Coal?

By 2012:China: 562 new plantsIndia: 213 new plantsUSA: 72 new plants

Total: 327,000 MW

1200 - 2700 MT of CO2 a year for 60 years

+ 58 other nations are planning

340 more plants


The Coal-Fired Inferno

2700 MT of CO2 a year =

5 times more than the planned Kyoto reductions

… for 60 years

Clean Coal?Carbon Capture & Sequestration

1. Separate the CO2 emissions from the waste gases2. Transport the CO2 by pipeline3. Bury it away underground, hopefully for ever4. But will it produce yet more CO2 from oil? (see 3)5. Will it pollute underground aquifers? (see 2)



Norway’s Statoil Sleipner CO2 sequestration

Cost of CCS: $20 to $70 per tonne of CO2Norway’s carbon tax: $50 per tonne


“Clean Coal”Carbon Capture & Sequestration

Existing projects:Algeria: In Salah Gas, 1 MT a year underground, EORCanada: 70 Enhanced Oilfield Recovery (EOR) projectsGermany: Ketzin, CO2 storage experiment (60,000 tonnes)Norway: Sleipner underground storage (since 1996)CO2 Capture Projects: 8 leading global energy companies

Planned projects:Britain: Centrica, North Sea storage California: Thornton CO2 storage experiment (4000 lbs) Germany: Vattenfall, Underground burial?

Nothing likely at any serious level until 2030US DoE - not commercially practical for 15+ years

What about Nuclear Power?



1. The private sector won’t touch it2. The tax-payer is on the tab for insurance3. Same $$ spent on efficiency does more4. Wastes are radioactive 250,000 years5. Uranium is a limited resource6. Cooling fails during hot summers7. Rising sea levels flood ocean plants8. Constant links to cancer9. Nukes can lead to nuclear bombs 10.Nukes and terrorists….

10 Reasons why Nuclear is not a Good Idea


How could BC advance the renewable energy

revolution?


How much sustainable, green electricitycould British Columbia generate?

Today: 60,000 GWh MW GWh/yr Cents/kWh Jobs

Wind 5000 11,000 6-12 31,250

Microhydro 2530 11,108 4-9 5,700

Wood waste biomass 215 1800 4-9 484

Geothermal 1070 9,000 5-9 7,000

Tidal 2225 13,000 11-25 13,906

Landfill gas 15 85 4-5 20

Solar PV 6000 12,000 60 - 20 210,000

Total potential power

58,000

Efficiency n/a 12,500 3-6 145,200

Solar Hot Water n/a 10,000 n/a [60,000]

GeoExchange Heat n/a 3,750 n/a [21,420]

Total +84,250

413,560


Motor Vehicles in BC: EV Power Demand Canada B.C. kWh per

16,000 kmGWh per yearpower demand

Total vehicle registrations, 2004 25,100,296 2,707,940

Total road motor vehicle registrations 19,081,478 2,410,482

Vehicles weighing less than 4500 kg 17,920,360 2,273,461

(a) Super Lightweight 1,000,000 1500 1500

(b) Medium weight 1,000,000 3000 3000

(c) Normal weight 273,461 6000 1640

Vehicles weighing 4500 kg to 14999 kg 389,810 78,622 10,000 786

Vehicles weighing 15000 kg or more 285,154 14,198 15,000 213

Buses 77,447 8,201 15,000 123

Motorcycles and mopeds 408,706 35,999 1,000 36

Trailers 4,492,733 268,241 2,000 536

Off-road, construction, farm vehicles 1,526,083 29,216 6000 175

Total 8,000

BC’s current electricity use: 60,000 GWh/yr

Statistics Canada + EV power data. Guy Dauncey August 2005


www.bcsea.orgGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

In Europe, the best policy is the

Advanced Renewables Tariff(aka Feed Laws/Standard Offer)

1. All R.E. providers have guaranteed access to grid2. Guaranteed price per kWh3. Tariffs secure for 20 years4. Possible size limit for each technology5. Cost shared by all utility ratepayers

Ontario Power Authority, under 10 MW:• Wind, microhydro, biomass: 11 cents kWh• Solar: 42 cents kWh

BC could do likewiseGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com


110,000 PV systems

2,000 biomass plants

6,000 small hydro

16,500 wind turbines

45,000 jobs in wind

Germany’s policy has led to:


Grow local organic food

Travel by foot and bike

Make your home super-efficient

Share rides, use biodiesel

Become active

Put solar on your roof

What can I do?

Organize a small climate group



What is your Carbon Footprint?

Driving: 1 litre of gas = 2.34 kg of CO2 10,000 km (1000 litres) = 2.34 tonnes of CO2

Flying: Victoria to Calgary return = 250 kg of CO2

Electricity (diesel): 10,000 kwh = 6 tonnes of CO2

Heating Oil: 1 litre= 2.6 kg of CO2

Gas: 1 gigajoule= 52 kg of CO2


Become Carbon Neutral

Solar Electric Light Fund: www.self.org

Solar PVin place of keroseneas carbon offsets$10 US per tonne



What Can Your Business Do?Five Step Program

Step 1: Form a Climate Solutions Team.


Five Step Program

Step 2: Hold a series of brown bag lunches. Talk about what your business could do.


Five Step Program

Step 3: Organize a Trip Reduction Programwith rewards for staff who reduce the most.


Five Step Program

Step 4: Organize a “Let’s Save Energy Campaign”

Appoint an Energy Manager for each building to be in charge of demand reduction and cost savings.


Five Step Program

Step 5: Calculate your greenhouse gas emissions.Set a target to reduce, and start planning.


What Can Your Community Do?

Be a champion for your region

Set clear goals, as many cities have done

Engage other people, and their creativity


Squamish

Feb 6, 2007: Global Warming Action Plan Unanimous approval

12 Step Pledge to Reduce GHGs“Municipal leaders and governments have the extraordinary ability to change the current trend of global warming at the grassroots level. Municipalities can do this by finding and facilitating innovative and practical examples, and positively influencing the behaviour and attitudes of their employees and citizens.”

- Councillor Patricia Heintzman


Squamish’s 12 Step Pledge to Reduce GHGs

• Do inventory of emissions, set targets, create an action plan

• Adopt and enforce anti-sprawl land-use policies

• Promote green transport options

• Encourage and increase use of green energy.

• Building Code improvements

• Energy Star equipment & appliances for municipal use

• Increase efficiency of municipal facilities• Increase average fuel efficiency of municipal fleet• Evaluate opportunities to increase water/wastewater

efficiency• Increase recycling rates• Maintain and encourage healthy urban forests• Educate the larger community about reducing global

warming.

Show how it can be done efficiently, economically and sensitively.


Squamish Existing Initiatives

Smart Growth concept plan for Downtown.

OCP under review for smart growth.

Policies and bylaws to implement smart growth

Biodiesel Pilot Program Idling Reduction Policy 30-year energy planWind Energy feasibility analysis

Energy Savings Plan to help residents Recreation Centre energy retrofit


Oak Bay, Victoria

Climate Action Task Force just established

USA: 490+ cities striving to meet the Kyoto goal


Mayne Island, BC“Cool Islands” initiative

Community educational workshops


One Planet

Many sectors

Many technologies

Many policies

Science Education Investment

Political will

Personal will


Form a CRD Climate Action Team

Choose a clear goal: 33% reduction by 2020or 60% reduction by 2020

Establish a Local Carbon Tax

Use 50% of the income to reduce taxes50% to reduce emissions


Local Carbon Tax

BC: 195,000 barrels of oil a day = 71 million barrels a year 1 barrel = 119 litres

71 million barrels = 8,450 million litres a year

CRD = 330,000 people = 8% of BC

8% of 8450 million litres = 676 million litres a yearCarbon tax at 20 cents/litre = $135 million a year

50% as tax break on municipal taxes = $450 per household50% for a Climate Solutions Fund

$67 million = $184,000 a day


BuildingsHome retrofit program (tax credits, grants, loans)

Solar hot water as a utility program

Energy upgrades as a utility program

Incentives for geothermal home heating

All buildings to be Energuide 80 by 2020

All homes to be upgraded each time they are sold

Energy and water efficiency certificates to be sold on the market - no building permits unless certificates are bought and retired.


Transport

CRD-wide Ride-Share program

All motor dealers to display vehicle efficiency data

Community bulk order for Plug-in Hybrids

Video-conferencing for many more meetings

Incentives for cycling - 40 cents/km allowance

Community challenge to reduce single occupancy commuting


Farming in the CRD

More food grown locally = less trucked flown inOrganic cultivation stores carbon in the soil

More fresh, healthy food

Together forever save the earth Anggi Dito Dwi Septian, Age 8

Al Amanah Elementary School Jakarta (Indonesia)



Do we sit back and wait for the sea level to rise…



Or do we get to work,

and build the world

we want?



"Ignoring climate change will be the most costly of all possible choices,

for us and our children."

Peter Ewins, British Meteorological Office

Thank you


Stormy Weather:101 Solutions to Global

Climate Changeby Guy Dauncey

with Patrick Mazza

New Society Publishers 2001 $27.95

CWMA Discount: $25

www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey 2007 Global Climate Change: Seeking Solutions that Work Guy Dauncey 2007 .

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