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Transcript of Bridge to India_india Solar Compas_july 2013
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 1
Market DashboardA snapshot of the
market’s fundamentals
Latest Market InsightsAn analysis of the policies,
projects, industry and finance
Key Question Are tracking systems
viable in India?
OutlookProjection for the
Indian solar PV market
INDIA SOLAR
COMPASSJuly 2013 Edition
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013
DISCLAIMER© 2013 BRIDGE TO INDIA Energy Pvt. Ltd.All rights reserved July 2013, New Delhi
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© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013
CONTENTS1. Overview 01
2. Market Dashboard 02 2.1 Market Compass 02 2.2 Indian Solar Market Prices 02 2.3 Installed Capacity in India 03
3. Key Findings
4. Policies 06 4.1 National Solar Mission 06 4.2 Tamil Nadu Solar Policy 08 4.3 Andhra Pradesh Solar Policy 09
5. Projects 10 5.1 New installations (grid connected) 10 5.2 Status of on-going projects (PV) 12 5.3 Status of on-going projects (CSP) 14
6. Financing 16
7. Upstream Industry 17
8. Key question: Are tracking systems viable in 19 India?
8.1 Overview 19 8.2 Current scenario 19 8.3 Introduction to solar tracker technology 20 8.4 PV module tracker technologies 21 8.5 Comparison of tracking technologies 22 8.6 Factors influencing an investment decision 23 8.7 Financial analysis 24 8.8 Results for the financial analysis 26 8.9 Conclusion 26
9. Outlook 28 9.1 Coming quarter 28 9.2 Long-term outlook 29
10. Annexure 32
LIST OF FIGURESFigure 2-1: Market compass 02
Figure 2-2: Indian solar market prices 02
Figure 5-1: Grid connected solar projects installed in the previous 10 quarter – April 1st to June 20th 2013
Figure 5-2: Grid connected solar projects installed in the previous 10 quarters not covered in any of the previous editions of the India Solar Compass
Figure 6-1: A weakening Indian rupee against the US dollar 16
Figure 8-1: Solar angles with respect to a PV module installation 20
Figure 8.2: Types of PV module mounting techniques 21
Figure 8-3: Comparison of hourly generation curves with and without 23 trackers in Rajasthan
Figure 8-4: Variation in expected equity IRR for reduction 26 in the cost of axis tracking (as a % of the CAPEX)
Figure 9-1: Projected quarterly PV installations in India 28
LIST OF TABLESTable 4-1: Proposed schedule for allocations under batch one of 06 phase two of the NSM
Table 8-1: Projects in India using tracking technology 19
Table 8-2: Gain in yield for various axis tracking technologies 23
Table 8-3: Assumptions for financial analysis 25
Table 8-4: Variation in yield and CUF by technology 25
Table 8-5: Variation in CAPEX by technology 25
Table 8-6: Variation of parameters due to axis-trackers 25
Table 8-7: Variation of generation and EIRR with fixed tilt and 26 trackers
Table 9-1: Long term outlook of various policy based allocations 30 in India
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 01
1. OVERVIEW In the previous quarter (April 2013 to June 2013), the Indian solar market was predominantly focussed on new project allocations in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan and Karnataka. Each state allocation came with its own set of challenges. However, overall, they have been able to create a significant interest from developers and will fuel demand for components and EPC in the next year. The signing of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) has not been completed for most states, except Rajasthan, but it is expected that the total signed capacity will reach more than 1.5 GW. In the coming weeks, the market will eagerly await allocations for a capacity of 750 MW under the National Solar Mission (NSM), phase two batch one, the process for which is to begin in July.
The most worrying aspect of these allocations has been the kind of uncertainty that we have seen in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Both the states have had to resort to changing the allocation process significantly from what had originally been communicated. In both cases, this had been a result of a poorly planned and executed process. On the positive side, both states and the developers have shown resilience and a will to make it work. Tamil Nadu now expects to allocate a capacity of 690 MW. In the case of Andhra Pradesh, the arbitrary and ex-post changes in tariff identification will hurt investor confidence more permanently. The state is expected to allocate a capacity of around 300 MW as compared to the planned 1,000 MW, even after originally being oversubscribed.
The sudden influx of allocations helped reduce the intense bidding competition that had previously characterised the Indian market. Allocations in Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh were both undersubscribed and the average tariff quoted by the developers across all allocations was more than ` 8 (€ 0.12/$ 0.16)/kWh. This is significantly higher than the tariff of ` 6.45 (€ 0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh, currently offered in Rajasthan.
As most prominent developers in India have been allocated projects under one or multiple state policies, these allocations are also expected to reduce the level of competition for projects under the NSM. Adding to this, as developers can opt for project capacities as high as 100 MW under the NSM, informed smaller and new developers will most likely stay away from the bidding based competition.
In our 'Key Question' in this edition, we look at tracking technology. Only about 80 MW of the 1,746 MW solar PV capacity installed in India is using some form of axis tracking technology. The question we asked was: under Indian conditions, does an increased yield and revenue justify the additional investment for an axis tracking technology? We found that at current prices, the increase in the Equity Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) increases only marginally when using horizontal single axis and dual axis tracking systems. For vertical single axis tracking systems, the EIRR actually decreases. Even a marginal increase in EIRR probably does not justify the additional risk involved in adopting this technology. Therefore, the low adoption of axis tracking technology in India makes sense. In the future, the viability of tracking systems is expected to improve only in so far as their cost decreases as a percentage of the total plant cost.
A capacity of over 1.7 GW has already been installed in India and close to 1.5 GW of PV is currently under development. BRIDGE TO INDIA expects that India’s cumulative installed capacity will exceed 2 GW by the end of 2013. There's also a lot of momentum building up for new capacity additions in 2014, which could easily exceed 2 GW. This is expected to take India’s installed solar PV capacity to 4 GW by the end of 2014. Until now, 80% of India’s solar PV projects have been installed in Gujarat and Rajasthan. In future, the focus will shift from the West to the South (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and probably also Karnataka).
The market will eagerly awaits
allocations for a capacity of 750 MW
under batch one of phase two of
the National Solar Mission (NSM).
A capacity of over 1.7 GW has already been installed in India and close to 1.5 GW of PV
is currently under development. BRIDGE TO INDIA expects that
India’s cumulative installed capacity will
exceed 2 GW by the end of 2013.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 02
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Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
2. MARKET DASHBOARD 2.1 MARKET COMPASS
2.2 INDIAN SOLAR MARKET PRICES
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GROW
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Indication Trend PVLowest FiT ` 6.45/kWhInterst Rate 13%Average Capex ` 68 /Wc-Si modules (China, Taiwan) $ 0.63/W*Thin Film modules (US and Malaysia) $ 0.57/W*c-Si modules (Japan, Europe) $ 0.70/W*Thin Film modules (Japan) $ 0.70/W**$ rate has been used to avoid effect of currency fluctuationsAll prices are for a reference 10MW projectAll prices are without duties and taxes
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 03
2.3 INSTALLED CAPACITY IN INDIA
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 04
POLICY1. In the last quarter (April 2013 to
June 2013) we have seen several state allocations in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu drawing close to signing of PPAs.
2. Bidding has also been completed in the states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
3. MNRE has now decided to go ahead with the allocations for 750 MW based on VGF. The bidding process for these allocations is expected to begin in July 2013.
4. As an off-taker for NSM projects, SECI will be considered as a less bankable option than NVVN.
5. MNRE recently announced that it plans to allocate ‘mega-size’ projects, i.e., projects larger than 500 MW. The primary objective of these projects will be to significantly bring down the tariffs.
6. In Tamil Nadu, originally, the 52 currently selected developers had opted for a cumulative capacity of 293 MW. Out of this, 25 developers opted to increase their allocated capacity. This has led to a total allocation of 690 MW.
7. Andhra Pradesh is now looking to allocate a capacity of 350 MW. Of this, seven companies with a capacity of 53 MW have unconditionally agreed to the terms and tariff and another 27 companies with a capacity of 297 MW have given their conditional acceptance.
PROJECTS1. Mahagenco has commissioned
India’s single largest solar PV power plant in Maharashtra. This project has a capacity of 125 MW.
2. In the last quarter (April to June 2013) 159 MW of solar PV capacity and 50 MW of CSP capacity has been added in India.
3. Welspun has announced that it will be able to commission the entire
130 MW capacity (a 25 MW project and a 105 MW project) allocated to the company under the Madhya Pradesh allocations, by August 2013.
4. Out of the 52 project developers who have been issued a letter of interest in Tamil Nadu, 41 developers are from Tamil Nadu itself and most of them do not have prior experience of solar project development.
5. The average project size in Andhra Pradesh is around 10 MW. The state does not have big-ticket projects like the ones in Tamil Nadu.
6. A majority of the capacity in Punjab is being developed by experienced players such as Welspun, Azure, Essel Infraprojects, SolaireDirect, Moser Baer, Lanco and Punj Lloyd.
7. In Uttar Pradesh, a capacity of 135 MW is likely to be allocated to eight developers. Based on the financial bids submitted, it is likely that prominent developers such as Azure Power, Moser Baer, Essel Infra, Jakson Power and Refex Energy will receive allocations in the state.
8. The good news from the CSP market is that a 50 MW CSP project by Godawari Power has recently been completed. The next project to be commissioned is by Reliance (100 MW).
FINANCING1. In the last quarter (April 2013 to
June 2013), the Indian rupee has lost over 10% of its value against the US dollar. Since January 2011, it has lost over 32%.
2. A weakening rupee increases the cost of imported equipment, of servicing un-hedged external debt and of future currency hedging.
3. Keeping the weakening currency in mind, the Reserve Bank of India has now decided to hold interest rate cuts.
3. KEY FINDINGS
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 05
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS1. The US has won the DCR case
against Canada, and Canada has had to remove its DCR regulations. This might have an impact on other DCR policies, including in India.
2. As per the draft guidelines, the allocations under the NSM will be divided into two parts : projects with a DCR and projects without a DCR.
3. Of the 2.5 GW capacity allocations expected in 2013 across India, including all state policies, only about 500 MW under the NSM is likely to have a DCR.
4. For anti-dumping duties, the last day for stakeholders to submit comments and counter briefs was 23rd April 2013. An interim order from the anti-dumping investigations is expected soon.
KEY QUESTION: ARE TRACKING SYSTEMS VIABLE IN INDIA?1. Out of the total 1,746 MW installed
in India, only approximately 80 MW are installed with tracking systems.
2. A seasonal tilt of modules can give an approximate increase in yield of 5% as compared to the standard fixed tilt systems.
3. The use of horizontal single axis trackers has reportedly increased the yield of a project in Rajasthan by 15% at an increased initial investment of 8% for the project.
4. Well known manufacturers of dual axis trackers claim that for dual-axis tracking systems in higher latitudes, there can be an increase in yield of 35% to 40% over the fixed tilt systems.
5. According to our analysis, the increase in EIRR is marginal while using horizontal single axis and dual axis tracking systems in India. For vertical single axis tracking systems, the EIRR actually reduces for Indian conditions.
6. We think that the marginal increase in EIRR does not justify the additional costs and risk involved in adopting tracking technology at the current cost for tracking in India.
OUTLOOK1. A capacity of 1.7 GW has already
been installed in India and close to 1.5 GW of PV is currently under development.
2. There is a lot of momentum building up for new capacity additions in 2014, which could easily exceed 2 GW.
3. A capacity of 750MW is expected to be allocated under the NSM this year. As the process is expected to start in July 2013 with PPAs signed only by October 2013, we do not expect any capacity addition in the next four quarters under the NSM.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 06
In the last quarter (April 2013 to June 2013), we have seen several state allocations in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu drawing close to signing of Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) after several ups and downs and a lot of confusion. Bidding has also been completed in the states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Due to the ample availability of projects, the bids were not as competitive. As we have seen in the past, developers in all states quoted an average tariff of over ` 8 (€ 0.12/$ 0.16)/kWh. The states were not ready for this kind of a response and Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh chose to alter the allocation process to try and keep the developers interested without going overboard with their anticipated budgets. Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh bids were undersubscribed, bringing the effectiveness of the competitive bidding process under question. With the highest bid in Uttar Pradesh at ` 15 (€ 0.23/$ 0.30)/kWh, which is double that of what most other policies are offering, it remains to be seen if Uttar Pradesh will also alter the allocation process to ensure that it does not end up signing the PPA at this tariff.
4.1 NATIONAL SOLAR MISSIONThe draft guidelines for phase two of the National Solar Mission (NSM) were published by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) on December 3rd 20121. According to the draft policy, the MNRE wanted to allocate 800 MW through a bundling of power mechanism (as in phase one of the NSM) and 750 MW through a VGF2 mechanism. For a large part of the first quarter (January to March 2013), the MNRE had been trying to arrange for unallocated power from the Ministry of Power (MoP) to carry out the tariff based bidding component of allocations based on bundling of power3. However, as there is only a limited amount of unallocated power available and all states demand access to this power, the MoP has been unwilling to provide it. As a result, the MNRE has now decided to go ahead only with the allocations for just 750 MW based on VGF. The bidding process for these allocations is expected to begin in July 2013.
4. POLICIES
----------------------1 Draft policy document: Phase two of the National Solar Mission (NSM)2 Refer to the October 2012 edition of the India Solar Compass3 Refer to the January 2013 edition of the India Solar Compass
Table 4.1 – Proposed schedule for allocations under batch one of phase two of the NSM
Event ScheduleNotice for the Request for Selection (RfS)
Zero date (expected in July 2013)
Submission of applications and techno-commercial bid opening
Zero date + 30 days
Short-listing of bidders based on techno-commercial eligibility and opening of financial bid
Zero date + 60 days
Evaluation of financial bids and issue of the Letter of Intent (LoI)
Zero date + 90 days
PPA signing Zero date + 120 daysFinancial closure Six months from the date of signing the PPACommissioning 13 months from the date of signing the PPA
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
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Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh bids were undersubscribed,
bringing the effectiveness of the competitive bidding
process under question.
The highest bid in Uttar Pradesh is at
` 15 (€ 0.23/$ 0.30)/kWh, which is double
that of what most other policies are offering.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 07
The draft methodology for the VGF based bidding process was released in May 20134. The allocation process, signing of PPAs and handing out of VGF will all be handled by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). According to the draft, a fixed tariff of ` 5.45 (€ 0.08/$ 0.11)/kWh will be awarded to projects not availing accelerated depreciation and a fixed tariff of ` 4.95 (€ 0.07/$ 0.10)/kWh will be awarded to projects availing accelerated depreciation. Over and above this, VGF will be provided with an upper limit of 30% of the project cost or ` 25m (€ 384,615/$ 500,000)/MW. The exact quantum of VGF will be determined by a reverse bidding mechanism.
SECI is expected to sign separate power sale agreements with various state power distribution companies across India. In the past, the solar power from NSM projects has been sold to the states in which projects are located. More than 80% of all NSM projects under phase one (batch one and two) will be located in Rajasthan. As Rajasthan is already meeting its solar Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO), it is unlikely that the state will continue to buy power from the NSM projects. Rajasthan has land and high irradiation and is therefore attractive for projects under phase two as well. SECI, however, will need to devise a way to sell power outside of the state.
Unlike its predecessor in phase one, the National Thermal Power Corporation Vidyut Vyapar Nigam (NTPC NVVN), SECI is not an AAA rated company and will be considered as a less bankable option. To counteract that SECI plans to set up a payment guarantee fund to cover three months of payments. For this, it will primarily depend on the National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF).
A key concern with regards to the implementation of the VGF is its impact on the long term performance of projects and the scope for developers to execute low quality
projects for short term gains (refer to the October 2012 edition of the India Solar Compass to read more on VGF). The MNRE has provided some safeguards to prevent this. As per the draft guidelines, it has been decided that a hand-out of the VGF amount will take place in three installments. The first installment of 25% will be handed out after the delivery of at least 50% of the equipment, another 50% will be handed out on successful commissioning of the project and the remaining 25% will be handed out after one year of successful commissioning. The draft also says that if the plant fails to generate any power continuously for one year during the course of the PPA period or the project is dismantled or its assets sold, SECI will have the right to claim assets equal to the value of VGF granted. However, no real safeguards have been provided to ensure the plant's performance in the long run. In the current scenario, the developers will place greater focus on reducing the capital expenditure (CAPEX) than on optimizing plant performance.
As per the draft methodology, the maximum aggregated capacity that a company can bid for under batch one of phase two of the NSM is 100 MW. However, the MNRE also recently announced that it plans to allocate ‘mega-size’ projects, i.e., projects larger than 500 MW. The primary objective of these projects will be to significantly bring down the tariffs. The timeline or methodology for such allocations has not yet been announced.
In the last quarter, the SECI has also carried out the second round of biddings for the implementation of large scale, grid connected rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems ranging from 100 kWp to 500 kWp for a total allocation of 11.1 MW. The projects will be spread across the cities of Bhubaneswar/Cuttack (1 MW) in Odisha, Gurgaon (1.5 MW) in Haryana, Hyderabad (2 MW) in Andhra Pradesh,
----------------------4 Link: Draft methodology for allocations under batch one of phase two of the NSM
Unlike its predecessor, SECI is not an AAA
rated company and will be considered as a less
bankable option.
A key concern with the VGF is its impact
on the long term performance of
projects.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 08
Jaipur (3.1 MW) in Rajasthan, Noida/Greater Noida (1.5 MW) in Uttar Pradesh and Raipur/Naya Raipur (2 MW) in Chhattisgarh. A developer can apply for multiple projects for a minimum allocation of 250 kWp and a maximum of 2 MWp. SECI has released the RfS document on 1st May 2013. The pre-bid meeting was held on May 8th 2013 in Delhi and the last date for the submission of bids was May 30th 2013.
The rooftop PV allocations are different from most policy-based allocations in that there is no Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) offered. Instead, SECI will provide a capital subsidy of 30%. This is similar to the off-grid capital subsidy scheme of the MNRE. The scope of work for bidder includes the identification and leasing of buildings suitable for rooftop plants. Bidders also need to obtain No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from the relevant distribution company (DISCOM) for connecting the projects to the grid. In addition, bidders are responsible for the complete design, engineering, manufacturing, supply, storage, civil work, erection, testing and commissioning of the grid connected rooftop solar PV project, including operation and maintenance (O&M) for a period of two years after commissioning of the plant.
Under the new mechanism, the bidder quotes a consolidated cost in `/Wp terms for providing a turnkey solution. Based on this bid price, SECI will provide a capital subsidy of 30% to the winners. The disbursement of the subsidy is linked to the performance of the plants: 20% will be disbursed at the time of commissioning after the project can prove a performance ratio of a minimum of 75%. A further 5% will be disbursed at the end of the first year, and another 5% at the end of the second year of generation of the plant, if the project can prove a minimum Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) of 15% for the two years.
The sale of power and the negotiation of the tariff is the developer’s responsibility. The generated power is expected to be consumed by the
rooftop owner first, after which any excess power can be exported to the grid.
According to BRIDGE TO INDIA, the new allocation process holds the potential to improve on the existing process for disbursing the MNRE subsidy as (a) it is competitive, which means that the cost to the government exchequer will be minimized; and (b) the disbursement of the subsidy is tied to the performance of the plant, which will ensure that the subsidy is released only for well executed projects. If SECI can allocate such subsidy-based projects on a monthly basis and not limit the allocations to some particular cities, the process can become an effective and transparent replacement of the existing MNRE capital subsidy.
4.2 TAMIL NADU SOLAR POLICYIn December 2012, Tamil Nadu had announced a bidding process for a capacity allocation of 1,000 MW. Issues such as low bankability of the PPA, limited time available for planning and commissioning and the need for developers to meet the lowest quoted tariff (L1 tariff) for successful allocation caused the allocations to be undersubscribed. Bids were received for only 499 MW. Developers were subsequently asked to meet the lowest submitted tariff which came out at ` 5.97 (€ 0.09/$ 0.12)/kWh with an escalation of 5% per year for 10 years – an unattractive tariff for most developers. To avoid a failure of the process, the state then decided to offer a ‘workable’ tariff of ` 6.48 (€ 0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh with an escalation of 5% per year for 10 years. Even at this tariff, initially, interest was limited. In February 2013, the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (TANGEDCO) cleared proposals for the first batch of bidders with a cumulative capacity of 226 MW.
Due to the poor response, TANGEDCO provided additional time until May 31st 2013 to developers who originally
Under Under the new mechanism, the bidder
quotes a consolidated cost in `/Wp terms for
providing a turnkey solution. Based on this bid price, SECI
will provide a capital subsidy of 30% to the
winners.
If SECI can allocate subsidy-based projects on a monthly basis and
not limit allocations to particular cities,
the process can become an effective
and transparent replacement of the
existing MNRE capital subsidy.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 09
chose not to accept the offered tariff and PPA terms. Some new developers expressed interest and many of the existing developers submitted their proposal to increase the capacity allocated to them. Originally, the 52 currently selected developers had opted for a cumulative capacity of 293 MW. Out of this 25 developers opted to increase their allocated capacity (read the projects section to know more). This led to a total allocation of 690 MW.
No specific changes have been made to the PPA or any other term for agreement that make these projects more bankable. Under the bidding process, the maximum capacity for project size was limited by the evacuation capacity listed for each district in a list put out by the Tamil Nadu Energy Development Authority (TEDA). Based on that, most projects were planned for a capacity between 1 MW and 10 MW with just one project that was as large as 50 MW. However, the newer projects had enough time to scout for evacuation capacity on their own. The larger capacity has potentially made these projects financially feasible for the developers. Other key reasons for the new response could be availability of more planning and commissioning time and no uncertainty with regards to tariff determination through a bidding process.
Apart from this, new interests were also invited through a public advertisement. All new interests were to be made to the Chief Engineer (CE) at TANGEDCO. Companies such as Reliance Power and Shinsung Solar Energy (Korea) are known to have submitted their proposals. The capacity allocated to these projects, if any, will be over and above the current 690 MW allocated capacity.
4.3 ANDHRA PRADESH SOLAR POLICYLike Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has also planned an L1 process for the final tariff determination but in Andhra Pradesh’s case, the lowest bid is to be considered at the substation level as compared to the state wise L1 in Tamil Nadu. (This takes into account different land costs and irradiation levels across the state.) Based on this, 330 companies participated in the bidding process and bid for a cumulative capacity of 1,712 MW. However, in a sudden change of process, after the bidding process was complete, the state last week announced that it could only offer the overall L1 tariff across the state instead of the substation level L1 tariff. This meant that all developers, irrespective of their project size and location were offered the same tariff. The L1 tariff was quoted by SunBorne Energy for a 5 MW project with ` 6.49 (€ 0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh. The state’s cabinet sub-committee on power fixed this benchmark price at its meeting on April 23rd 2013.
At this tariff, the state is now looking to allocate a capacity of 350 MW. Of this, seven companies with a capacity of 53 MW have unconditionally agreed to the terms and tariff and another 27 companies with a capacity of 297 MW have given their conditional acceptance.
Andhra Pradesh also allowed developers to re-negotiate the capacity. However, unlike in Tamil Nadu, where 25 developers chose to increase their allocation capacity, only three developers chose to increase their allocated capacity while six developers chose to decrease their allocated capacity (read the projects section of this report for more analysis).
In Tamil Nadu, the 52 currently selected
developers had opted for a cumulative
capacity of 293 MW. Out of this 25 developers
opted to increase their allocated capacity. This led to a total allocation
of 690 MW.
The L1 tariff was quoted by SunBorne
Energy for a 5 MW project with ` 6.49 (€
0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 10
5. PROJECTS 5.1 NEW INSTALLATIONS (GRID CONNECTED)
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Figure 5-1: Grid connected solar projects installed in the previous quarter (April 1st to June 20th 2013)
Figure 5-2: Grid connected solar projects installed in the previous quarters, that were not covered in previous editions of the India Solar Compass
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RAJASTHAN
Size - 125 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - Captive RPODeveloper -
Mahagenco
Size - 20 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - Industrial captiveDeveloper -
EMMVEE
MAHARASHTRA
JHARKHAND
GUJARAT
UTTAR PRADESH
ANDHRA PRADESH
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR
MADHYA PRADESH
TAMIL NADU
Size - 2 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Deepak Spinners
Size - 0.5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
M/S Gupta Sons
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Omega Renk Bearing
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Star Delta Trans-formers
Size - 5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - State policyDeveloper -
Avatar Solar
Size - 23 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - State policyDeveloper -
Ujjawala Power
Private Limited
Size - 5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - State RPODeveloper -
NTPC
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - RPSSGPDeveloper -
Noel Media and
Advertising Pvt. Ltd.
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
SWELECT Energy
Systems Limited
Size - 50 MWTechnology - CSPOff-take - Developer - Godavari Green Energy
NSM Phase 1, Batch Off-take - Third-party sale of power Developer - EMMVEE
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
Island Electrification
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR
TAMIL NADU
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 11
In the last quarter (April to June 2013), 159 MW of solar PV capacity has been added in India through just three new projects. The largest capacity addition of 125 MW was achieved in Maharashtra through a single project by Mahagenco. A 20 MW project for third-party sale of power
has come up in Andhra Pradesh. The remaining capacity of 14 MW has been added in Jharkhand through a single project. This project has been funded by a central grant given to the state specifically for this project that will provide power to Jharkhand’s rural and Naxal5 -affected areas.
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Aman Home Appli-
ance
Size - 2.5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
BMD
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Chartered Global
Financial Services
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Dindyal Commodi-ties
Size - 1.5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Impact Solar
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Jakson Power (Allocation 1)
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Jakson Power
(Allocation 2)
Size - 3 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
KC (India)
Size - 2 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Lahoti Overseas
Size - 15 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
DJ Malpani
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Lexicon Vanijya
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
LEPL Projects
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
NVR Infrastructure
Size - 5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Pokaran Solaire
Energy
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Raj Overseas
Size - 2 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Rajasthan Patrika
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Sai Maithili Power Company
Size - 5 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Sunborne Energy Services
Size - 2 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Sanjeev Prakashan
Size - 10 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - NSM Phase 1, Batch 2Developer -
Symphony Vyapar
Size - 1 MWTechnology - PVOff-take - REC MechanismDeveloper -
Vinay Corporartion
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----------------------5 Naxal, Naxalite and Naksalvadi are generic terms used to refer to various militant communist groups operating in different parts of India under different organizational envelopes. They are mostly concentrated in the eastern states of the mainland India (Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha).
RAJASTHAN
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
APPC/Open access + RECs
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 12
With the capacity additions in the last quarter, India has reached a total installed solar PV capcity of 1,746 MW.
A 50 MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) project has also been commissioned in Rajasthan in the last quarter. This is the only CSP project to have come up under the NSM allocation till date. It takes India’s total installed capacity for CSP to 55.5 MW.
5.2 STATUS OF ON-GOING PROJECTS (PV)Madhya PradeshA capacity of 225 MW had been allocated in Madhya Pradesh in May/June 2012. Projects were awarded to Acme Telepower (25 MW), Alpha Infra Properties (20 MW), MK Solar (25 MW), Moser Baer (25 MW) and Welspun (25 MW and 105 MW). The 25 MW projects had to be commissioned by June 2013. The 105 MW project by Welspun has June 2014 as the commissioning deadline.
None of the 25 MW projects have been commissioned as of 20th June 2013.
In May 2013, Welspun had announced that it will be able to commission the entire 130 MW capacity (a 25 MW project and a 105 MW project) by August 2013, which is significantly ahead of the June 2014 deadline for its 105 MW project. It is expected that Welspun will opt for a part commissioning of its 25 MW capacity to avoid delays for this project.
KarnatakaKarnataka had allocated 60MW of solar PV capacity in April 2012. The projects were allocated to Essel Infrastructure (10 MW), GKC Projects (10 MW), Helena Power (10 MW), Jindal Aluminium(10 MW),SaiSudhir Energy (10 MW), United Telecom (3 MW) and Welspun (7 MW). Projects are to be commissioned no later than October 2013. Given that the deadline is right after the monsoons and Karnataka is experiencing excess
rainfall, projects that have not begun the construction work early, might struggle to commission on time.
RajasthanThe financial bids for an allocation of 100 MW of solar PV projects in Rajasthan were opened on February 11th 2013. A total of 25 bids worth over 200 MW had been received. The lowest bid had been submitted at ` 6.45 (€ 0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh by Essel Mining and Industries Ltd.Other bidders were asked to meet this tariff. Based on this process, an allocation of 75 MW has since been announced by the Rajasthan Renewable Energy Corporation Limited (RRECL). These projects include Essel Mining and Industries (20 MW), Sidhidata Solar Urja (5 MW), Arjun Green Power (5 MW), Star Solar Power (5 MW), Sungold Energy (5 MW), Energo Engineering Projects (10 MW) and Roha Dyechem (25 MW).
Essel Mining Industries and Roha Dyechem have previously developed projects in India while the remaining are first time developers.
All these projects are to come up in the Bhadla solar park, Jodhpur, demarcated by Rajasthan Solarpark Development Company Limited, (a subsidiary of RRECL). The park will provide a common evacuation infrastructure for all the projects.
The planned time period for commissioning of these projects is 12 months from the date of signing of the PPAs. This means that these projects would have to achieve financial closure by the end of 2013 to then be commissioned by May 2014.
Tamil NaduIn Tamil Nadu, 52 project developers have been issued an LoI for setting up a cumulative capacity of 690 MW under the state solar policy. As mentioned in the policies section, 25 developers chose to increase their allocation capacity from the earlier capacity that they had bid for (read the policy section
A capacity of 225 MW had been allocated in
Madhya Pradesh in May/June 2012.
Karnataka is experiencing excess
rainfall, projects that have not begun the construction work
early, might struggle to commission on time.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 13
of this report to know more about the allocation process and the reasons for increase in the allocation capacity). Mohan Breweries & Distilleries, a project developer from Tamil Nadu, has increased its capacity from 10 MW to 110 MW. Similarly, Welspun doubled its allocation capacity from 30 MW to 60 MW and United Telecoms increased its allocation capacity from 5 MW to 100 MW.
Out of the 52 project developers who have been issued an LoI, 41 developers are from Tamil Nadu itself, most of whom do not have prior experience of solar project development. Lack of previous project development experience is expected to lead to sales and contracts being driven primarily with a focus to reduce capital costs and we can expect a time delay and a sub-standard project execution for some projects.
Given the poor bankability of the off-taker, most projects are likely to be financed by recourse.
Andhra PradeshIn Andhra Pradesh, seven project developers with a cumulative capacity of 53 MW have unconditionally accepted the tariff and terms of the PPA. These projects are by developers such as Enerparc from Germany (5 MW), SunBorne Energy (5 MW) and Essel Mining and Industries (35 MW) and a number of smaller, first time project developers.
Apart from this, 27 projects with a cumulative capacity of 297 MW have conditionally accepted the terms of agreement. These projects have requested for a change in conditions such as a change in location, an increase or decrease in capacity and in some cases, even an increase in tariffs, if possible. It is expected that some of these projects will not end up signing the PPA. Five developers, who account for eight projects out of these 27 projects, have previous project development experience and, like Tamil Nadu, the remaining developers
are first-time developers. The financial viability of projects in Andhra Pradesh is significantly lower than that in Tamil Nadu as. Unlike Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh is not offering an escalation in tariffs.
The average project size in Andhra Pradesh is around 10 MW and the state does not have big-ticket projects like the ones in Tamil Nadu. In the wake of the weakening Indian rupee against the US dollar, projects, especially of capacities under 5 MW, that are not availing accelerated depreciation are unlikely to be financially viable at the tariff of ` 6.49 (€ 0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh (read the financing section of this report to understand this better).
Like in Tamil Nadu, a lack of previous project development experience is expected to lead to sales and contracts being driven primarily with a focus to reduce capital costs and we can expect a time delay and a sub-standard project execution for some projects.
PunjabA capacity of 250 MW is likely to be allocated under the Punjab policy to 27 developers. The average project size per developer in the state is 13 MW but most projects are between 1 MW and 4 MW. Unlike Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, a majority of the capacity in Punjab is being developed by experienced players such as Welspun, Azure, Essel Infraprojects, SolaireDirect, Moser Baer, Lanco and Punj Lloyd. The tariffs in the state are also financially more feasible: The lowest tariff in the state is ` 7.20 (€ 0.11/$ 0.14)/kWh and the average tariff across the selected projects is ` 8.22 (€ 0.13/$ 0.16)/kWh. These tariffs are without any escalation and for a period of 25 years.
Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) companies will get very limited access to project capacities in Punjab as most of the developers are likely do the EPC work in-house. Due to the high land costs in the state, it is likely that most projects
In Tamil Nadu, given the poor
bankability of the off-taker, most projects
are likely to be financed by recourse.
Engineering, Procurement and
Construction (EPC) companies will get very limited access
to project capacities in Punjab as most of
the developers are likely to do the EPC
work in-house.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 14
would opt for the more efficient crystalline module technology over thin-film technology.
These projects will now begin looking for finance and are expected to be commissioned by July 2014.
Uttar PradeshIn Uttar Pradesh, a capacity of 135 MW is likely to be allocated to eight developers. Given the condition for previous project experience in the state, all the developers are likely to be known solar players.
Based on the financial bids submitted, it is likely that prominent developers such as Azure Power, Moser Baer, Essel Infraprojects, Jakson Power and Refex Energy will receive allocations in the state.
Like in Punjab, tariffs in Uttar Pradesh are also likely to be high, with an average tariff of over ` 8 (€ 0.12/$ 0.16)/kWh. The tariffs in Uttar Pradesh are without any escalation and for a period of 12 years (read more about the shorter PPA time period in the June edition of the India Solar Handbook). Most of the capacity in Uttar Pradesh will be allocated to the developers who would be undertaking the EPC work in-house.
Given that in both Punjab and Uttar Pradesh most projects have been allocated to the developers who will carry out the EPC work in-house, EPC providers looking to bag contracts should focus on the south Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Projects in these states are evenly distributed among developers with varied experience and in-house capabilities.
Third-party sale of power with REC benefitsIn the first two quarters of 2013, the capacity of REC based projects has gone up from 2.5 MW to 85 MW. While a significant part of this capacity is still based on sale of power at the average
pooled purchase cost (APPC), most of the new capacity that is now being added is for third-party sale of power, typically to industrial consumers. The power for such agreements is being sold at tariffs between ` 4 (€ 0.06/$ 0.08)/kWh to ` 6.5 (€ 0.10/$ 0.13)/kWh. A large part of new planned capacities under this business model is expected to come up in Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Madhya Pradesh, with one of the lowest open access (and related) charges, has already seen an installation of five projects with a cumulative capacity of 6.5 MW under this business model. Tariffs being offered for third-party sale in Madhya Pradesh are around ` 4.5 (€ 0.07/$ 0.09)/kWh. These projects rely heavily on accelerated depreciation and revenue through the sale of RECs until 2017. Failure to sell a significant portion of the RECs until 2017 can make these projects unviable at the given tariffs.
Several such projects are being planned across various states in India. According to market sources, developers such as Kiran Energy, SunEdison, Moser Baer and Welspun are keen on the market for third-party sale of power. First Solar has also announced that it is looking to develop such projects in India. In the past, we have already seen projects by M&B Switchgear in Madhya Pradesh and EMMVEE in Andhra Pradesh selling power directly to industrial consumers.
5.3 STATUS OF ON-GOING PROJECTS (CSP)The MNRE has decided to defer the penalties that are to be levied on the delayed solar thermal (CSP) projects by 10 months. A capacity of 470 MW was allocated under phase one of the NSM in December 2010 and these projects were to be commissioned in May 2013. However, none of the projects have met this deadline.
Like in Punjab, tariffs in Uttar Pradesh are
also likely to be high, with an average tariff
of over ` 8 (€ 0.12/$ 0.16)/kWh. The tariffs
in Uttar Pradesh are without any escalation
and for a period of 12 years.
Tariffs being offered for third-party sale in
Madhya Pradesh are around ` 4.5
(€ 0.07/$ 0.09)/kWh. These projects rely
heavily on accelerated depreciation and
revenue through the sale of RECs until 2017.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 15
A 50 MW project by Godawari Power has recently been completed. The next project to be commissioned is by Reliance (100 MW), which is expected to be commissioned in the next couple of months.
Some of the common reasons cited by project developers for not meeting the deadline are: a delay in laying of a water pipeline by the Rajasthan government, delays in procurement of heat transfer fluid (HTF) and other components for the plant and delays in achieving financial closure. However, according to industry sources, the main, unstated cause of delay is the incorrect solar resource assessment for the projects at the time of planning. The extension is likely to allow some projects that had been delayed due to reasons such as delay in procurement of HTF or delay in getting water are likely to come up. Other projects are expected to be cancelled.
Under phase two of the NSM, it is expected that a capacity of 1,080 MW will be allocated for new CSP projects in 2014. The new process will draw from the learning of the 470 MW projects of the phase one. The complexity of setting up CSP plants has been systematically underestimated so far. It is unlikely that these issues will be resolved and lessons will be learnt by 2014, especially considering that the previous projects would have just come up (if at all). Given the issues that the developers have faced in the first phase of the allocations, interest for the new project allocations, if they happen next year, is expected to be fairly low.
Under phase two of the NSM, it is expected that a capacity of 1,080
MW will be allocated for new CSP projects in
2014.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 16
In the last quarter (April 2013 to June 2013), the Indian rupee has lost over 10% of its value against the US dollar. Since 2011, it has lost over 32% of its value. For the Indian solar market, a weakening rupee has a severe impact as it increases the cost of imported equipment, of servicing of un-hedged external debt and of future currency hedging.
The prices for international modules, which account for most of the imported equipment in Indian projects, have more or less stabilized over the past quarter. However, the continuing weakening of the Indian currency is now expected to lead to an increase in the cost of imported equipment in rupee terms. Considering a per MW capital cost of ` 70m (€ 1.07 m/$ 1.4 m) and assuming that 45% of the project cost is from imported material, the project cost in India should have directly increased by approximately ` 3m (€ 46,153/$ 60,000)/MW in the last quarter just because of the rupee depreciation.
A capacity of over 1.5 GW is expected to be allocated in the states of Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. The weak rupee is likely to impair the viability of these projects.
A capacity of more than 300 MW in India has been financed using cheaper international debt. Developers such as Green Infra, Mahindra Solar, Azure Power, SunEdison India, Acme
Telepower, Azure Power, Mahindra Solar, Reliance, Punj Lloyd, Tatith Solar Energy and Universal Solar Systems are known to have worked with international financing. Some projects currently under operation, specifically those under the batch one of phase one of the NSM and those under the Gujarat solar policy, are known to be operating without a currency hedge. For these projects, the principal and interest payments are to be made in the currency of the loan and the revenue is in the weakening Indian rupee. This nullifies the cost advantage they enjoyed through a lower cost of capital. Developers looking to avail finance in any international currency often hedge against such currency risk.
Many developers thought that the rupee was already at an ‘all-time low’ back in 2012, when the currency hit ` 50 per $ and thus decided against fully hedging an international debt.The ‘all-time low’ rhetoric has been there since and from there we have seen a further downturn to ` 55 per $ and now to ` 60 per $.
Keeping the weakening currency in mind, the Reserve Bank of India has now decided to put a hold on interest rate cuts. Due to this, on one hand, the developers will be wary to opt for international debt because the rupee depreciation is not halting and on the other hand, the cost of debt is expected to remain high in the domestic market.
6. FINANCING
Figure 6-1: A weakening Indian rupee against the US dollar
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For the Indian solar market, a weakening
rupee has a severe impact as it increases
the cost of imported equipment, of servicing
of un-hedged external debt and of future currency hedging.
The prices for international modules,
which account for most of the imported
equipment in Indian projects, have more or
less stabilized over the past quarter.
404244464850525456586062
Jan-
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Apr
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Jul-1
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Jan-
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Jul-1
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Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul -1
3
Val
ue o
f 1 U
SD in
IN
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Exchange rate - USD vs INR
INR/USD
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 17
India currently has close to 2 GW of module manufacturing capacity, including Moser Baer’s 200 MW of thin-film capacity. Much of this 2 GW capacity is underutilized.Many Indian manufacturers are not able to offer prices competitive with leading global manufacturers, primarily from China. The MNRE has been trying to promote domestic manufacturing by enforcing a Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) on projects being set up under the NSM. The MNRE hopes that such protection from international competition will give Indian manufacturers room to grow and become competitive.
In February 2013, the US filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against DCR under the NSM. Similarly, the US had earlier filed a case against Canada’s DCR for renewable energy projects in its Ontario program. The US has won the case and Canada has had to remove its DCR regulations. Even though India is concerned about a pending WTO decision, it is expected to go ahead with DCR for projects allocated under batch one of phase two of the NSM. As per the draft guidelines, the allocations will be divided into two parts. Project developers will have the option to either bid for projects with DCR or to bid for projects without a DCR. In April 2013, a senior official had made a statement that 500 MW of the 750 MW would not have a DCR, leaving 250 MW with a DCR. In a recent statement in June 2013, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, the Minister for New and Renewable Energy, stated that the DCR component would likely be 75%. Final clarity on the subject is still pending. However, it is clear that this time the DCR will be extended to thin film modules as well.
Of the 2.5 GW capacity allocations expected in 2013 across India (refer to the outlook section of this report to read more), including all state policies, only about 500 MW are likely to have a DCR. This in itself will not suffice to change the fortunes of the existing 2
GW manufacturing capacity in India. Given that the DCR will extend to cells, only the manufacturers with cell manufacturing capability are expected to benefit. In India, only eight out of the 21 manufacturers have a cell manufacturing capability.
Given the uncertainties about implementation and extent of the DCR, Indian manufacturers have explored a further regulatory route: they have filed an anti-dumping petition with the Directorate General of Anti-Dumping Duties (DGAD) under the Ministry of Commerce for the imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese, American, Malaysian and Taiwanese suppliers (read a complete analysis of anti-dumping duties and its impact on the Indian solar market in the January 2013 edition of the India Solar Compass).
The last day for stakeholders to submit comments and counter briefs was 23rd April 2013. An interim order from the anti-dumping investigations is expected soon.
Europe has recently imposed a duty of 11.8% on imports of all Chinese solar products. The duty is set until August 6th, after which it will increase to 47.6%. The European Commission defined this percentage as the level required to remove the harm caused by the dumping to the European manufacturing industry.
Like in Europe, suppliers in India are also expecting an interim duty for six months, followed by a final duty. If anti-dumping duties are enforced, they will have a severe impact on the financial viability of all recently allocated projects, including those in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Developers have planned with a low pre-duty price of imported modules at the time of bidding (to read more on how it will impact these projects, read the January edition of the Indian Solar Compass).
7. UPSTREAM INDUSTRY
The DCR will be extended to thin film
modules for phase two of the NSM.
Of the 2.5 GW capacity allocations expected in 2013 across India,
only about 500 MW are likely have a DCR.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 18
The largest manufacturing capacity in India is by Moser Baer of around 250 MW as compared to several manufacturers in China who are operating a capacity of over 2 GW a year. In the current scenario, a lower capacity utilization of plants in India, at under 15%, has reduced the volumes further for the domestic manufacturers and made it even more difficult for them to compete with leading Chinese manufacturers who are operating at more than 10 times the volumes. With often hefty loan repayments and dwindling company finances, there has been
little or no room for investments into upgrading manufacturing capabilities and improving competitiveness. As a means to sell their modules and keep the production lines running, many Indian module manufacturers have integrated downstream into providing EPC services or even development of projects. Even though the EPC segment has low margins, the manufacturers are sometimes able to sell their own modules and keep the production line operating. Vikram Solar, Waree, EMMVEE Solar and Tata Power Solar are examples.
As a means to sell their modules and keep
the production lines running, many Indian
module manufacturers have integrated
downstream into providing EPC services.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 19
8.1 OVERVIEWTracking systems for solar PV power plants generate more electricity than fixed tilt systems during the early hours of the morning and during the late afternoon. This excess generation leads to an increased yield and an increased CUF for the project. However, tracking systems increase the project cost. The question is; is the additional investment worth the increase in yield and revenue? Until now, very few projects in India have used tracking systems. The adoption rate is significantly higher in mature markets, especially Europe. In this analysis, we will evaluate the financial viability of axis tracking systems in India.
8.2 CURRENT SCENARIOMost projects in India use fixed-tilt structures with no tracking. Out of the total 1,746 MW installed in India, only approximately 80 MW6 are installed with tracking systems. High initial capital costs and a lack of local experience and expertise for installation and support have acted as the key deterrents to the adoption of the technology. This situation may change as the cost of tracking systems comes down, the familiarity with the technology increases and companies start to manufacture and supply the technology locally.
Projects in India that are using axis-trackers are listed below:
8. KEY QUESTION:
ARE TRACKING SYSTEMS
VIABLE IN INDIA?
----------------------6 Collated from MNRE,“Net exported power-summary” accessed here and communications with tracker suppliers. 7 MNRE,“Net exported power-summary”, Oct 2012-April 2013 accessed here.
Table 8-1: Projects in India using tracking technology7
Owner/EPC Location/State
Project size
(MW)
Module type/ Supplier
Tracking technology
Tracker supplier
Reliance Solar/ Reliance Solar
Khimsar/ Rajasthan
0.032 Monocrys-talline/ Reliance
Dual Axis tracking
Deger-energie
Sripower/ Solarsis
Anantapur/ Andhra Pradesh
0.375 CdTe/Abound Solar
Single axis Horizontal
Smart-trak
Clover Solar/ Clover Solar
Baramati/ Maharash-tra
0.82 Monocrys-talline/ SunPower
Single axis Horizontal
Sun-Power
Gildemeister/ SunCarrier Omega
Bhopal/ Madhya Pradesh
0.8 Crystalline Vertical Single Axis tracking
Sun-Carrier Omega
Mahindra Solar/ Mahindra Solar
Phalodi/ Rajasthan
5 Polycrys-talline/ SunPower
Single axis Horizontal
Sun-Power
Backbone Enter-prises/ InSolare Energy
Kutch/ Gujarat
5 Thin Film/ Nexpower
Single axis Horizontal
SatecEn-vir Engi-neering
Millenium Syn-ergy/Sun Edison
Charanka/Gujarat
5 Thin film/ First Solar
Vertical Single Axis tracking
Idee-matec GmbH
Millenium Syn-ergy/ L&T
Suren-dranagar/ Gujarat
9.2 Polycrystal-line/ Trina, Solarfun
Vertical Single Axis tracking
Idee-matec GmbH
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The adoption rate for axis tracking systems is significantly higher
in mature markets, especially Europe.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 20
8.3 INTRODUCTION TO SOLAR TRACKER TECHNOLOGYPV modules generate electricity using global horizontal irradiation (GHI), a combination of direct normal irradiation (DNI) and diffused irradiation. The DNI component is uniform in the atmosphere and is captured only perpendicular to the absorbing surface. The diffused component is captured in all the directions and is non-uniform. Solar module efficiency and the amount of incident irradiation govern the yield from a PV module.
Solar angles for PV module installationsThe angle θs in Figure 8-1 defines the position of the sun with respect to the module surface. As the sun moves through the sky, this angle changes during the day and also over the course of the year. Tracking systems can rotate about the azimuth8 angle α or change their inclination9 (tilt) angle β with respect to ground or perform both these movements simultaneously. This movement along the sun path allows PV modules to capture more
global horizontal irradiation and thereby increase the yield.
Sun tracking principlesTracking systems can operate according to two different principles11:
Astronomically guided tracking
This is based on astronomical data. The controller software stores the sunrise and sunset timings along with angles of incidence of sun rays at a location for the whole year. The trackers align themselves based on this data. Astronomical tracking is useful in locations where the irradiation remains constantly high and skies are more or less cloudless throughout the year. This does not consider the real time weather conditions or parameters relevant to the energy yield like reflection from nearby water bodies or rocks.
Intelligent tracking
This is based on light detection at a location. The sensors align the modules towards the brightest spot in the sky. Its major advantage is in locations which have considerable period of cloudy conditions in the year. This takes into account the diffused sunlight available at any instant.
----------------------8 Azimuth is the compass direction from which sunlight is coming. At noon in northern hemisphere, the sun is directly south and considered at azimuth angle α= 0 degree9 The angle from ground in the vertical plane at which modules are tilted10 Castillo JE, Russo JM, Kostuk RK, Rosenberg GA; Thermal effects of the extended holographic regions for holographic planar concentrator. J. Photon Energy accessed11 The Alternative Energy eMagazine
Figure 8-1: Solar angles with respect to a PV module installation10
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South
s ZenithSurface’s Normal
Astronomical tracking is useful in locations
where the irradiation remains constantly high and skies are
more or less cloudless throughout the year.
Intelligent tracking is based on light
detection at a location. The sensors align the modules towards the brightest spot in the
sky.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 21
8.4 PV MODULE TRACKER TECHNOLOGIESThere are three approaches to install PV modules in a solar power plant:
Fixed TiltThe module mounting structures are installed at a fixed inclination with respect to the ground. The optimum angle for fixed tilt installations depends on the latitude of the location and the season.
Module mounting structures in such installations are the easiest to install and are the most stable against wind loads. They are also the the most inexpensive type of installation in terms of material costs, design, fabrication and input labor costs.
Some installations allow module output optimization in a certain period of the year by adjusting the tilt seasonally. The provision for adjustment is present in the mounting structures and the change in tilt can be made manually on the site. Seasonal tilt can give an approximate increase in yield of 5% as compared to the standard fixed tilt systems.
Single Axis TrackingA single axis tracking mechanism follows the daily path of the sun from east to west (azimuth tracking) resulting in an increase in yield from the modules. Single axis trackers
are further classified into two sub categories based on the axis of rotation relative to the ground:
Horizontal Single Axis Tracking
A horizontal axis-tracking system rotates about an axis that is parallel to the ground. The modules are mounted on rows of steel tube sections running north to south. The rotational motion required for tracking is controlled by a drive mechanism13. The additional cost of materials in horizontal axis trackers is primarily because of the linkages, the central arms and the drive mechanisms. The number of rows and the length of a row controlled by the drive mechanism are decided by the module rating, wind speed and soil conditions at the site. It is desirable to have lesser motors to keep the failure and maintenance points to a minimum. The structures and the drives must be robust and capable of withstanding harsh weather conditions.
Single axis horizontal tracking systems are an optimum solution for locations where land area utilization has to be optimized in a project either due to high land costs or scarcity of land. In the early hours of the morning and in the late evening, adjacent rows of modules can cause shading on each other. The backtracking feature corrects the tilt angle in such instances and prevents any loss in yield due to shading. This also allows a high density of modules to be accommodated in a unit area of land.
Fig 8-2: Types of PV module mounting techniques12
----------------------12 SolarGIS database13 The drive could be mechanical (gears), electrical (motors) or hydraulic.
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S
Fixed Singly-Axis-Trackers - Dual-Axis-Trackers -
S Sss sE
EE
E
NNNNN
WWW W N
EE
Single axis horizontal tracking systems are an optimum solution
for locations where land area utilization
has to be optimized in a project either due
to high land costs or scarcity of land.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 22
Example installation in India
SunPower has installed a horizontal tracking system in Mahindra Solar’s 5 MW project in Rajasthan.
Each electric motor of the tracking system is capable of controlling module movement of around 250-300 kW. However, this is project specific subject to detailed engineering. The trackers also have a backtracking mechanism. According to SunPower India, the use of trackers has increased the yield by 15% at an increased initial investment of 10% for the project.14
Vertical Single Axis Tracking
Vertical axis-trackers are a better alternative for sites having slopes or uneven contour. This is because the trackers are not interconnected and can operate in isolation. Each tracker rotates about a mounting structure supported on a foundation, which is generally made of concrete. Such systems use the astronomical tracking principle. A drive motor adjusts the position of the modules as per the movement of the sun at periodic intervals. The inclination (tilt) angle can be optimized for maximum yield annually or in a particular season of the year.
Example installation in India
SunCarrier Omega has installed an 800 kWp solar PV system in Bhopal. The pitch (tilt) of the SunCarrier tracker is fixed at 30 degrees and the module surface moves from east to west every day as per movement of the sun. The controller automatically adjusts the drive motor to a new position every ten minutes. The drive can operate with a three stage planetary gear or it can work with an electric motor with an anti-derailing mechanism. According to a SunCarrier Omega official, the yield of vertical single axis trackers
is approximately 40%15 more than an equivalent fixed tilt system16.
Dual Axis TrackingThey combine the advantage of both horizontal and vertical single axis trackers. The trackers can rotate about the horizontal and also change tilt as required. This technology is very efficient in higher latitudes (above 40 degrees), where the position of the sun changes substantially with respect to season resulting in highly uneven duration of daylight in summer and winter.
Fixed tilt systems generate only marginal output in cloudy conditions. On the contrary, dual axis trackers, that operate on the intelligent tracking principle, are capable of pointing to the brightest point in the sky at any instant and deliver a better yield. Dual axis-tracking systems generate a substantially greater output in all weather conditions. In a large project having multiple dual axis trackers, it is possible that at a given point in time, each tracker is pointing in slightly different directions.
Well known manufacturers of dual axis trackers claim that for dual-axis tracking systems in higher latitudes, there can be an increase in yield upto 40%17 over the fixed tilt systems.
8.5 COMPARISON OF VARIOUS TRACKING TECHNOLOGIESAn hourly generation curve with all types of mounting systems was generated using PVSyst© software. Installed capacity for this simulation has been assumed at 1 MW for a location in Rajasthan. This simulation
----------------------14 As per communications with SunPower India representative. BRIDGE TO INDIA has not verified the actual plant performance data.15 SunCarrier Omega presentation16 The figure is based on the claims of SunCarrier representatives and the actual plant data has not been verified by BRIDGE TO INDIA17 DEGERenergie brochure accessed here; Mecasolar, accessed here.
According to SunPower India, the use of
trackers has increased the yield by 15% at an increased initial
investment of 8% for the project.
Dual-axis tracking systems in higher
latitudes can lead to an increase in yield of
35% to 40% over the fixed tilt systems.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 23
is for a typical summer day. The graph helps us understand the comparative generation between various technologies on a given day. The actual generation from a similar 1 MW plant would vary according to the location, irradiation data, weather conditions, modules used, inverters used, etc.
At noon, when the sunlight is perpendicular to the ground, all systems generate equally. Tracking systems generate more electricity than fixed tilt systems in the early hours of the morning as well as in the late afternoon. This excess generation on a daily basis results in higher annual generation and an increased CUF of the plant using such trackers.
8.6 FACTORS INFLUENCING AN INVESTMENT DECISION INTO TRACKING MECHANISMSA developer‘s decision to opt for tracking systems in any project depends on its financial viability. An effective way to determine if tracking system makes financial sense is to evaluate the change in Equity Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of a PV installation with tracking systems as compared to without a tracking system. If the EIRR increases appreciably then the additional investment (CAPEX and OPEX) can be justified. In the case that the EIRR change is negligible (<1%) or
Fig 8-3: Comparison of hourly generation curves with and without trackers in Rajasthan for a 1MW system size
Table 8-2: Gain in yield for various axis tracking technologies for a system size of 1 MW
Tracking Technology Total generation18 (MWh) % gainFixed tilt 5,967 Base caseHorizontal single axis 6,642 11.3Vertical single axis 7,370 23.5
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----------------------18 Values from PVSyst report
Tracking systems generate more
electricity than fixed tilt systems in the early
hours of the morning and in the evening or
late afternoon.
An effective way to determine if tracking
systems make financial sense is to
compare Return of a PV installation with
a tracking system to without a tracking
system.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Hou
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Time of Day (Hours)
Hourly generation comparison Fixed Tilt
Horizontal SAT
Vertical SAT
Dual axis tracker
11%
23%
36%
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even negative, then the additional investment for tracking systems might not make sense.
The extra investment for a tracking system includes the cost of the tracking device, cost of additional materials used for mounting structures, additional cost of the foundation and installation, additional cost of the additional land required, cost of the additional BoS required and the additional man-hours required. Galvanized steel channels mounted on simple foundations are sufficient for fixed tilt installations, horizontal trackers involve modified mounting structures with linkages and a drive mechanism19 to control the rotation of modules and the vertically mounted single axis-trackers and dual axis-trackers are designed to withstand high wind speeds of up to 18020 km/hr . This results in added cost of civil works (foundation structures) and installation.
The spacing required between adjacent rows of modules determines the additional land area required for a solar power plant. PV power plants with single axis and double axis-trackers require more land than a fixed tilt installation. This is primarily to avoid shadowing due to the rotating modules at different times of the day. An increased area also means more expenses on land area, electrical equipment; wiring and mounting structures used in the project (refer to the financial analysis section below to understand the CAPEX variation).
Tracking systems incur an additional O&M cost. Each tracker design is unique leading to different maintenance costs. For instance: SunPower’s T0 trackers use one motor to drive up to 400 kW of modules whereas Raytracker believes in a more distributed actuation21 using several
smaller motors22. This implies different O&M costs for two trackers belonging to the same technology.
It is important to avoid common mistakes during the initial installation of tracking devices as it can have a significant impact on the future O&M costs. For example: any misalignment while installing the foundations for trackers could lead to additional costs in maintenance over the lifetime of the project. This would reflect poorly on the tracking technology even though the problem lies in the workmanship of the installation. There exists a myth in the industry that trackers involve too many moving parts and therefore are not technically reliable. However, parts like gears and electric motors are commonly used in many engineering applications and it may not be correct to dismiss the viability of trackers based on this factor alone.
8.7 FINANCIAL ANALYSISGujarat and Rajasthan have seen maximum PV installations in the past three years in India. Until now, most projects in Rajasthan use fixed tilt systems and have reported a CUF of 18%-20%23. For the purpose of this analysis, a location at 20-degree latitude having daily global irradiation of 5.5 kWh/m2 and an average CUF of 19%24 has been considered.
Performance data of projects with tracking systems in various projects in India has been collected from tracking system suppliers and the performance data available from government sources. As there is very little data available for dual axis tracking systems, the values used in the analysis for dual axis trackers are an approximation based on information provided by experts in the solar industry.
----------------------19 The drive mechanism could be electrical, mechanical or hydraulic20 Ideematec GmbH21 The drive mechanism of the tracker could be actuated electrically, mechanically or hydraulically.22 Solar Pro, “PV Trackers, Smith; Stephen”, July 201123 MNRE,“Net exported power-summary”, Oct 2012-April 201324 Average CUF of a solar PV power plant in India using 14%efficiency C-Si modules
PV power plants with single axis and double axis-trackers require
more land than a fixed tilt installation.
Any misalignment while installing
the foundations for trackers could lead
to additional costs in maintenance over the
lifetime of the project.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 25
Table 8-4: Variation in yield and CUF by technology
Tracking technology Annual genera-tion (MWh/year)31
CUF of power plant (%)32
Increase in yield(%)
Fixed tilt 1.66 19 -Horizontal single axis 1.92 22 15Vertical single axis 2.01 23 22Dual axis 2.27 26 35
Table 8-5: Variation in CAPEX by technology
Tracking technology Increase in CAPEX 33(%) Increase in cost34 (` per Wp)
Fixed tilt - -Horizontal single axis 11 7Vertical single axis 18 12Dual axis 30 20
Table 8-6: Variation of parameters due to axis-trackers
Tracker type Fixed tilt
Single Axis (Horizontal)
Single Axis (Vertical)
Dual Axis
CUF (%) 19 22 23 25Land Area35 (acres )36 4.5 37 5.0 6.0 7.0CAPEX38 (` millions) 70 77 82 90Annual O&M (` millions) 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6
----------------------25 Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), ”Petition No. 242/SM/2012”, October 201226 CERC, “Petition No. 243/SM/2012”, October 201227 An approximation based on Tamil Nadu’s workable tariff of ` 6.48 @5% escalation and Andhra Pradesh’s lowest bid of ` 6.58. 28 Based on prices in solar PV industry in India in May 2013 29 IFC, “Utility Scale Solar Power Plants”, February 201230 CERC, “Petition No. 243/SM/2012”, October 201231 BRIDGE TO INDIA analysis32 As per the data obtained from industry sources.33 Average increase in CAPEX calculated from data obtained from industry sources in June 201334 Based on the % increase in CAPEX35 Approximate land area for a 1 MW solar PV power plant using C-Si modules.36 1 acre = 4,046 m236 CERC, ”Petition No. 242/SM/2012”, October 201238 Evaluated from assumptions in Table 5.1 and 5.3
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
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Table 8-3: Assumptions for financial analysis
Parameter AssumptionModule efficiency C-Si (%)25 14CUF of fixed tilt system (%)26 19Tariff (INR/kWh)27 6.60Escalation (%) 3CAPEX (INR in millions)28 70 O&M costs (INR/Year in 1st year/MW) in millions29 0.8 O&M escalation (%)30 5.72Debt: Equity ratio 70:30Interest rate (%) 13.00
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 26
8.9 CONCLUSIONThe increase in EIRR is marginal when using horizontal single axis and dual axis tracking systems. For vertical single axis tracking systems, the EIRR actually reduces for Indian conditions. The marginal increase in EIRR does not justify the additional costs and risk involved in adopting tracking technology at the current cost for tracking in India.
Installing tracking systems for utility scale projects requires a more detailed technical and financial due-diligence. Given the stringent deadlines for PV projects in most policies, developers find it convenient to avoid tracking systems and opt for fixed tilt systems.
As the industry matures and there is an influx of global EPC companies with prior experience in setting up large solar power plants with trackers in developed markets, the merits and de-merits of axis-tracking technology in India will become clearer.
In the future, the key driver for adoption of tracking technology will be the indigenization of components and local manufacturing that will help bring down costs. It is expected that the cost of tracking systems will continue to decrease as there is a significant scope for price reduction that still exists. However, the viability of tracking systems will only improve if the cost of tracking systems decreases as a percentage of the total CAPEX (refer to the figure below).
Table 8-7: Variation of generation and EIRR with fixed tilt and trackers39
Tracker type Fixed tilt Single Axis (Horizontal)
Single Axis (Vertical)
Dual Axis
EIRR (%) 14.5 15.0 14.2 14.9
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013
Figure 8-4: Variation in expected Equity IRR for reduction in the cost of axis tracking (as a % of the CAPEX)
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013
8.8 RESULTS FOR THE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
13.814
14.214.414.614.8
1515.215.415.615.8
Equi
ty IR
R
Different equity IRRs for different cases
Base case: Fixed tilt
Case 1: If the cost of horizontal single axis tracking is 10% of the CAPEX
Case 2: If the cost of horizontal single axis tracking is 7.5% of the CAPEX
Case 3: If the cost of horizontal single axis tracking is 6% of the CAPEX
The increase in EIRR is marginal when using horizontal single axis
and dual axis tracking systems. For vertical
single axis tracking systems, the EIRR
actually reduces for Indian conditions.
In the future, the key driver for
adoption of tracking technology will be
the indigenization of components and local
manufacturing that will help bring down costs.
----------------------39 BRIDGE TO INDIA financial model
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 27
Additionally, the NSM and some state policies also include an upper and lower limit on the CUF that a solar power plant can have. This means that a plant can generate only a quantum of power that is within a CUF range, based on the capacity allocated. This is a deterrent for the developers and leads to an even lower preference for trackers for their projects.
Considering that module prices will remain stable in the medium term (two to three years), a decrease in the price
of horizontal single axis trackers from ` 7 (€ 0.11/$ 0.14) per Wp to a range of ` 4-5 (€ 0.06-0.07/$ 0.08-0.10)per Wp can result in a 1% gain in EIRR compared to an equivalent fixed tilt installation.
Such a decrease in initial cost of trackers could change the perception of tracker technologies and improve adoption. A more competitive price for tracking technology is required for the tracker market to pick up and become relevant in India.
A more competitive price for tracking
technology is required for the tracker market to pick up and become
relevant in India.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 28
9. OUTLOOK
Until now, 80% of India’s solar PV projects have been installed in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Now, a capacity of 690 MW that is to be allocated in Tamil Nadu, 350 MW in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka is also expected to allocate projects soon. If even 800 MW finally comes up in these states, it would be a substantial shift from the western states to the southern states of India.
A capacity of 1.7 GW has already been installed in India and close to 1.5 GW of PV is currently under development.BRIDGE TO INDIA expects that India’s cumulative installed capacity will exceed 2 GW by the end of 2013. There is a lot of momentum building up for capacity additions in 2014, which could easily exceed 2 GW. This would take India’s installed solar PV capacity to 4 GW by the end of 2014.
9.1 COMING QUARTERThe coming quarter (July 2013 to September 2013) is expected to see around 80 MW of projects
being commissioned. In terms of installations, this is the slowest in the last one year. Two projects of 25 MW each, allocated under the Madhya Pradesh solar policy, are expected to be commissioned.The remaining capacity should come from a combination of RPO, REC and third-party sale type of projects.
Until the end of 2012, India’s installed capacity of REC based projects was just 2.5 MW. In the first two quarters of 2013, we have then seen a capacity addition of over 82 MW under the REC mechanism. This upward trend is expected to continue as the capacity of accredited projects40 now stands at over 160 MW. The primary reason for the growth in the REC market has been the lack of policy based project opportunities in the second half of 2012, which led developers to look at other avenues. Many of these projects are expected to sell power to third-party consumers under private PPAs instead of selling it to the power distribution companies at APPC.
Figure 9-1: Projected quarterly PV installations in India
----------------------40 The permission granted by the state agency in the form of an accreditation certificate that allows the developers to sell renewable power to the state and be eligible to avail RECs.
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80 245 175 630
0 40 20 0
Q3-2013 Q4-2013 Q1-2014 Q1-2014
30 50 80 100
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
NSMRajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
OthersTotal
0
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0 0 50 250
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Punjab0 0 0 50
0 0 0 100
50 155 25 0
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0 0 0 0
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(MW
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A capacity of 1.7 GW has already been
installed in India and close to 1.5 GW of PV
is currently under development.
The primary reason for the growth in the REC
market has been the lack of policy based
project opportunities in the second half of 2012.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 29
Andhra PradeshAndhra Pradesh is in the process of signing PPAs with developers who have been issued LOIs. It is expected that PPAs will be signed for a capacity of a little under 300 MW. These projects will be given one year for completion, but Andhra Pradesh is offering the developers an incentive for early commissioning. Based on the list of developers who were issued LOIs, we expect a capacity of around 80 MW to come up in the second quarter of 2014.
Tamil NaduUnlike Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu is not offering an incentive for early commissioning, but as there was a requirement for bidding, most developers have already tied up for land and arranged for permissions for grid inter-connection. This is expected to reduce the project development time. Also, due to a significant delay in allocations, many developers have had enough time for planning their projects before signing the PPA. For this reason, we expect some developers to commission their project in the next 10-11 months. The key hurdle for early commissioning of these projects will be access to finance. Only developers with recourse are expected to get finance without delays. Based on this understanding and after seeing the list of LOIs issued, we expect a capacity of 250 MW to come up in the second quarter of 2014.
NSMA capacity of 750 MW is expected to be allocated under the NSM this year. As the process is expected to start in July 2013 with PPAs signed only by October 2013, we do not expect any capacity addition in the next four quarters under the NSM.
KarnatakaThe deadline for commissioning of the 60 MW capacity allocated in the first phase of the Karnataka policy is in October 2013. Based on industry
information, we expect 40 MW of this capacity to be commissioned before the deadline and the remaining 20 MW capacity to spill over to the next quarter.
Madhya PradeshThe deadline for commissioning of the five 25 MW projects allocated in the first phase of the Madhya Pradesh solar policy was in June 2013. None of the projects have been commissioned as of 20th June 2013. Based on industry information, we expect at least two projects to be commissioned in the coming quarter and the remaining three projects in the quarter after that. Apart from that, a 105 MW project has been allocated to Welspun (in addition to one of the 25 MW projects). The deadline for commissioning of the 105 MW project is in June 2014. However, based on an announcement by the company, it is expected that this project would also be completed in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Other projectsThese projects are typically RPO, REC or parity driven. Apart from the various REC accredited projects that are yet to be commissioned, some projects are being set up to meet the RPO of various obligated entities directly. For example, Maharashtra’s power distribution company, Brihan Mumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking (BEST), has signed an agreement with Welspun to set up a 20 MW project to supply solar power that will help meet the RPO for the power distribution company.
9.2 LONG-TERM OUTLOOKInitially 4.5 GW of capacity was planned for allocation in India in 2013 under various state and national policies. However, now that half the year has passed, the expectation has come down to 2.5 GW. More capacity might fall through (refer table).
Only developers with recourse are expected to get finance without delays in Tamil Nadu.
Maharashtra’s power distribution company,
Brihan Mumbai Electric Supply and
Transport Undertaking (BEST), has signed an agreement with Welspun to set up
a 20 MW project to supply solar power
to meet its RPO .
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 30
Table 9-1: Long term outlook of various policy based allocations in India
Policy Initially announced capacity al-location (as of January 2013)
Current scenario (as of June 2013)
Expected capacity as of June 2014
Reason for the expected capacity
NSM phase two
1,600 MW 750 MW likely to be allocated in the next few months
0 MW The deadline for commissioning is expected to be in or after the third quarter of 2014
Tamil Nadu 1,000 MW LOIs issued for 690 MW
300 MW Some projects are expected to be completed before the deadline as they have a head start before signing of the PPA
Andhra Pradesh
1,000 MW LOIs issued for 350 MW, out of this, over 200 MW has provisionally agreed to the terms
80 MW Some projects are expected to be commissioned before the deadline as there is a fiscal incentive for commissioning before the deadline
Rajasthan 100 MW A capacity of 75 MW has been allocated
50 MW These projects are expected to be commissioned within the deadline
Uttar Pradesh
200 MW Financial bids received for 135 MW. No clarity on whether LOIs will be issued as, due to an undersubscribed tender, some of the tariffs quoted are very high
50 MW Some experienced developers are expected to be able to commission the projects a couple of months before the deadline
Punjab 500 MW The state came out with a tender for 300 MW but only 250 MW has been issued an LOI
100 MW Some experienced developers are expected to be able to commission the projects a couple of months before the deadline
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Karnataka 40 MW was expected as per the policy
An allocation for 130 MW is under process
0 MW The deadline for commissioning of these projects is expected to be in or after Q3 2014. A capacity of 60 MW from the first round of biddings is expected to be commissioned this year
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10.1 GLOSSARY OF TERMSAPPC – Average Pooled Purchase Cost
BEST – Brihan Mumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking
CAPEX – Capital Expenditure
CE – Chief Engineer
CERC – Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
CSP – Concentrated Solar Power
CUF – Capacity Utilization Factor
DCR – Domestic Content Requirement
DISCOM – State Distribution Company
DNI – Direct Normal Irradiation
DGAD – Directorate General of Anti-Dumping Duties
EPC – Engineering, Procurement and Construction
EIRR – Equity Internal Rate of Return
FiT – Feed-in-Tariff
GHI – Global Horizontal Irradiation
HTF – Heat Transfer Fluid
LoI – Letter of Intent
MNRE – Ministry for New and Renewable Energy
MoP – Ministry of Power
NCEF – National Clean Energy Fund
NOC – No Objection Certificate
NSM – Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
NTPC – National Thermal Power Corporation
NVVN – NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam
O&M – Operation and Maintenance
PV – Photovoltaic
PPA – Power Purchase Agreement
REC – Renewable Energy Certificate
RfP – Request for Proposal
10. ANNEXURE
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 33
RPO – Renewable Purchase Obligation
RRECL – Rajasthan Renewable Energy Corporation Limited
SECI – Solar Energy Corporation of India
TANGEDCO – Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company
TEDA – Tamil Nadu Energy Development Authority
VGF – Viability Gap Funding
WTO – World Trade Organization
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 34
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 35
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BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consulting company with an entrepreneurial approach based in New Delhi, Munich and Hamburg. Founded in 2008, the company focuses on renewable energy technologies in the Indian market. BRIDGE TO INDIA offers market intelligence, strategic consulting and project development services to Indian and international investors, companies and institutions. Through customized solutions for its clients, BRIDGE TO INDIA contributes to a sustainable world by implementing the latest technological and systemic innovations where their impact is the highest.
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