Bridge to India India Solar Compass April 2014 Final

8/11/2019 Bridge to India India Solar Compass April 2014 Final

1/201 BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2014

INDIASOLARCOMPASS

April 2014

Quarterly updateon the Indiansolar market

BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2014Illustration by tiffinbox



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April 2014, New Delhi

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GlossaryAD Accelerated Depreciation

APPC Average Pooled Purchase Cost

CAPEX Capital Expenditure

CSP Concentrated Solar PowerDCR Domestic Content Requirement

EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction

GBI Generation Based Incentive

IPP Independent Power Producer

LOI Letter of Intent

NSM Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission

NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation

OPEX Operational expenditure

PPA Power Purchase Agreement

PV Photovoltaic

REC Renewable Energy Certificate

RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation

SECI Solar Energy Corporation of India

TANGEDCO Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation

TNERC Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission

VGF Viability Gap Funding



1 Executive Summary a tepid start to 2014

The Indian solar market continues to rely heavily on policy driven projects

to meet capacity targets. Distributed generation market, constituting morethan 50% of total solar capacity in most countries around the world, has not

yet taken off in India primarily because of complex/ unviable open access

regulations, resistance from utilities and direct/indirect subsidies provided to

conventional power supply. Policy initiatives are (slowly) moving in the right

direction but to turn solar power into a true game changer, we need an urgent

overhaul of policy framework and transparent pricing of grid power.

Project Allocations

The highlight of the last quarter (January 2014 March 2014) was allocation

of solar PV projects under batch one, phase two of National Solar Mission(NSM). ACME, Azure Power and SunEdison emerged as the big winners with

100 MW each. Prominent players who missed out included Green Infra, Tata

Power, Mahindra Solar, Welspun (except for 5 MW), Renew Power and First

Solar amongst others. The bid levels were broadly as expected although quite

aggressive in our view. Our key takeaways and observations are as follows:

Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) has been a failure costing in

excess of M10 million/MW as local manufacturing has not gained anything

meaningful for the long-term. For the manufacturing sector to thrive,

we need investment in infrastructure, R&D, tax/labor reform and bigger

volumes.

Extremely competitive bidding means there will be too much pressure

on costs ie poor project quality. Although the Viability Gap Funding (VGF)mechanism has been a relative success, a more performance focused

regime such as Generation Based Incentive (GBI) is far more favorable in

our view.

Considerable interest shown by foreign project developers and

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) is very welcome as it brings more

credibility to the market and hopefully, will result in much needed

international expertise in project execution and deliverability.

On the state policy front, 482 MW of new power purchase agreements

(PPAs) have been signed across four states in the last quarter - 42 MW in

Andhra Pradesh (against a target of 150 MW), 80 MW in Karnataka (after adelay of six months), 110 MW in Uttar Pradesh (towards the tail end of the

preceding quarter) and 250 MW in Punjab. These projects are evenly split

between experienced and first time developers. A significant number of these

experienced players have in-house EPC capabilities, leaving lesser room for

pure-play EPC companies, which continue to struggle.

Another 300 MW of projects are expected to be allocated in UP after the

general elections in May. Madhya Pradesh expects to sign PPAs for 100 MW

solar PV projects in the ensuing quarter.

482 MW of PPAs

have been signed acrossstate policies and 750 MW

under the NSM in the

last quarter



Capacity Addition

In the first quarter of 2014, India added just 89 MW of new capacity - the lowest

since Q3 2012. Out of this, 55 MW has come from three state level projects with

the balance 34 MW being primarily driven by captive or third party sale projects

relying on accelerated depreciation (AD) and Renewable Energy Certificate(REC) incentives.

Rajasthan: 20 MW project by Essel Mining (commissioned on time)

Madhya Pradesh: 25 MW project by EDF backed ACME

Andhra Pradesh: 10 MW renewable purchase obligation (RPO) project

by NTPC

As the REC market has failed to take off (around 6% of RECs managed to find

buyers on the Indian Energy Exchange in the first quarter of 2014), project

developers have moved away from selling power to local utilities at APPC

(typically M2.50-3.00/ kWh, $0.04-0.05/kWh) to finding private consumers with

tariffs in the range of M6 9/ kWh ($0.1-0.15/kWh). As an example, a 6 MW

project has been set up by a textile company for captive use and SunEdison

has set up an 18 MW solar park in Tamil Nadu. We expect this market to grow

rapidly as election fever subsides (reducing political pressure to keep tariff

increases low) and grid parity is attained across more states.

Distributed Generation

The rooftop market is slowly gaining momentum1with Delhi and Kerala

(following on from Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) announcing net metering

policies in the last quarter (Delhi policy is still in draft stage). Keralas plan

of setting up 10,000 off-grid rooftop solar power plants by December 2014

appears to be well on track with around 6,000 sites already commissioned2.

At the central level, SECI continues to provide capital subsidies for rooftop

projects - it has allocated 25 MW till date and aims for a further 50 MW during

the year.

The policy support to the rooftop segment needs to be much bolder, especially

considering its future potential. Based on a study carried out by BRIDGE TO

INDIA for Greenpeace, Delhi alone has a rooftop solar potential for 2 GW3.

----------1 BRIDGE TO INDIA, along with Prayas, is working on a report on grid-connectivity issues for

distributed generation projects. This report is likely to be released in April 2014.2 BRIDGE TO INDIA blog on the Kerala rooftop scheme, http://bit.ly/OzhHoS3 Read our report: Rooftop Revolution: Unleashing Delhis Solar Potential

In the first quarter

of 2014, India added just

89 MW of new capacity
http://www.bridgetoindia.com/our-reports/indian-solar-policy-briefs/http://www.bridgetoindia.com/our-reports/indian-solar-policy-briefs/



2 Trends

2.1 Module Prices

In the last quarter (January 2014 March 2014), module prices have increased2-3% in India (c-Si, Chinese). This increase has been driven by a rise in global

demand (especially in China). This development follows a 7-9% increase in

module prices in the last year that was driven mostly by the depreciation in the

Indian rupee. Since the second quarter of 2013, prices for thin film modules

have remained constant in dollar terms but have risen in Indian rupee terms.

Figure 2.1: Chinese C-Si and thin film module prices over

the last four quarters4

2.2 Inverter Prices

In 2013, the initial decline in the inverter market was triggered by the strategic

pricing by international players such as Hitachi. This decline in central inverter

prices continued in the first quarter of 2014 as well. Many companies, which

were previously holding on to their higher prices, have joined the bandwagon

and have reduced their prices to compete in the market. Going forward, the

prices are not expected to go down further significantly until and unless thesize of the order exceeds 100 MW. With orders of this size, industry players

believe that the prices can go down to levels as low as M3.0/Wp ($0.05/ Wp).

----------4 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA analysis and industry interviews, PVinsights.com



Figure 2.2: PV central inverter prices over the last four quarters5

2.3 Tariffs

The only new additions in tariffs bid for were under the Madhya Pradesh state

policy and the NSM. The tariffs in the Madhya Pradesh policy, although on

the lower side, are higher compared to the Karnataka phase II bidding even

though Madhya Pradesh has a better irradiation compared to Karnataka. The

average VGF bid for in the NSM, if seen in terms of tariff increase, translates to

an additional M1.05/kWh ($0.018/kWh) and M2.05/kWh ($0.034/kWh) under the

open and DCR categories respectively6.

Figure 2.3: Average tariffs across state policies in the last four quarters7 8

----------5 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA analysis and industry interviews6 Assumptions: Cost of power plant under open category INR 65 million/MW (USD 1.1 million/MW)

Cost of power plant under DCR category INR 75 million/MW (USD 1.3 million/MW) Analysis done for projects not availing AD benefit7 Source: State policies8 Levelized tariff offered in Tamil Nadu has been calculated considering 5% escalation for

10 years. Discount rate of 15% has been assumed. Average tariff offered under various policiesare not weighted averages



2.4 Capacity Addition

The capacity addition has been quite dismal, with just 89 MW added in the

previous quarter. Cumulative, India added 586 MW in the last four quarters.

In comparison, for the financial year of 2012-13 (April 2012 to March 2013),

India had installed a cumulative 994 MW. This was largely fuelled by thecapacity addition of 500 MW in Gujarat. However, what is encouraging is that

the non-policy market accounted for more than one third of the capacity added

in the last four quarters. It is commendable that a capacity of 214 MW has

been commissioned without any policy support. As the fundamentals for this

segment continue to improve, this segment cannot go anywhere but up.

Figure 2.4: Quarterly installations in the last four quarters9

----------9 Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA project database



2.5 Installed Capacity In IndiaFigure 2.5



3 Policy Outlook

Table 3.1: Projects delayed beyond original deadlines

Policy name Karnataka Phase I Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan SECI phase IAllocation date Apr-12 May-12 Mar-13 Apr-13

Allocated capacity 60 MW 225 MW 75 MW 5.5 MW

Delayed projects 42 MW 25 MW 55 MW ~1 MW

Scheduled date of

commissioning

Oct-13 Jun-13 Mar-14 Apr-14

Expected

commissioning

date

Q2 and Q3 of 2014 Q2 of 2014 Q3 of 2014 Q3 of 2014

Remarks No penalties are beinglevied on delayedprojects

No projects have beencommissioned in the Q1of 2014

Projects are delayed byupto a year

Penalties to be leviedonly in cases wherethe developer is notable to justify the timeextension

A 25 MW project byMoserbaer is still

pending completion

A 25 MW project by MKsolar energy has beencancelled

Most of the projects arebehind schedule

Only a 20 MW project byESSEL Mining has beencommissioned in time

While 1 MWprojects have beencommissioned,3.5 MW are expectedto be commissioned byApril 2014

Project developers arefinding it increasinglydifficult to procureprojects under the OPEX

model

* All details are based on information received from state authorities or project developers.



Table 3.2: Ongoing Allocations

Policy name Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh

phase II

NSM

Allocation date Jun 2013 Jun 2013 Feb 2014 Feb 2014

LOIs signed 708 MW 600 MW 100 MW 750 MW

PPAs signed as on

March 2014

0 180 MW(138 MW in Q4 2013 and42 MW in Q1 2014)

0 750 MW

PPAs expected to be

signed in the next

quarter

No clarity 100 MW 100 MW 0

Remarks 226 MW PPAs are

awaiting approval

Quarter over quarterthere is no clarity onwhat is happeningunder the Tamil Nadusolar policy

PPAs were signed ata tariff of M6.48/kWh($0.11/kWh)

The Tamil NaduElectricity Regulatory

Commission (TNERC)has proposed a tariffrevision to M5.78/kWh($0.1/kWh)

Tamil Nadu Generationand DistributionCorporation(TANGEDCO) is stillawaiting the approvalfor the tariff of M6.48/kWh ($0.11.kWh) bythe TNERC

The PPA signing

process has been quiteslow compared to whatthe officials had earlierforecasted for Q1 2014(42 MW as against150 MW)

19 companies had

participated in the bid

Himgiri EnergyVentures quotedthe lowest tariff ofM6.475/kWh ($0.11/kWh), followed byToday homes andinfrastructure M6.48/kWh($0.11/kWh)

Renew Power managedto secure a 30 MWproject at a tariff of

M6.97/kWh ($0.12/kWh)

Leading projectdevelopers that did notwin any projects includeAzure, Acme, IL&FS,Sunedison, Esselinfraprojects, Welspunand Solairedirect

A total of 122 bids

totaling 2,170 MW werereceived

Prominent developerswhich were allottedprojects include Acme(100 MW), Welspun (5MW), Azure (100 MW),Sunedison (100 MW),Solairedirect(20 MW),IL&FS (40 MW)

More than half of theprojects chose their

location as Rajasthan(~360 MW). Surprisinglythe second mostpreferred location wasMadhya Pradesh ( ~200MW) instead of Gujarat(~50 MW)

The average bid underthe open categorywas M10.1 million/MW ($0.17 million/MW) and DCR categorywas M20.1 million /MW

($0.33 million/MW)

TATA power rejected apartial allocation underthe DCR category (hadbid for 40 MW but wasoffered part allocationof 25 MW)



Table 3.3: Projects under scheduled deployment (utility scale)

Policy name Punjab Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Andhra Pradesh

Allocation date Jun-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Jun-13

PPAs signed as

on March 2014

250 MW 110 MW 80 MW 180 MW

Expected date

of procurement

for projects

Q4 of 2014 and

Q1 of 2015

Q4 of 2014 and

Q1 of 2015

Q1 of 2015 Q4 of 2014 and

Q1 of 2015

Expected date

of procurement

for projects

April September

2014

March - August 2014 April September

2014

Ongoing

Remarks In case of delays there

are penalties in place

There are two types of

grace periods:

1stgrace period

-December 2015

(Bank guarantees

will not be returned

by Punjab Energy

Development Agency);

2ndgrace - March 2015

(Liquidation damages

taken by the state

utility)

Most of the projects

are owned by project

developers that do

their own EPC. This

might lead to earlier

commissioning of

projects and relatively

better returns.

100 MW project by

National Hydro Power

Corporation is in the

concluding stages of

finalizing shareholder

agreements

Out of the 130 MW

allocation, PPAs have

only been signed for

80 MW.

There was a delay

in PPA signing due

to confusion in the

lowest bids received

(please refer to

India Solar Compass

October

2013 edition)10

42 MW PPAs signed

in the current quarter.

Out of the 180 MW, a

70 MW project is by a

JV between Premier

Solar and New

Generation Power

(USA)

----------10India Solar Compass October 2013 edition http://bit.ly/1hLVfRD



Table 3.4: Projects under scheduled deployment (rooftop)

Policy name SECI phase II SECI phase III

Allocation date Jul-13 Dec-13

PPAs signed as

on March 2014

11.3 MW 8.75 MW

Expected date

of procurement

for projects

Q3 and Q4 of 2014 Q1 of 2015

Expected date

of procurement

for projects

Ongoing April October 2014

Remarks As several projects under SECI

phase I have been delayed, timely

completion of the phase II is also

unlikely

Allocations in new cities such as

Noida, Bhubhaneshwarand Raipur.

Projects located in Coimbatore,

Chennai and Delhi

New project developers include

Ravano Green Energy, Waaree

Energies, Mahindra EPC and Enrich

Energies

First deadline to submit DPRs

was March 11th, this deadline has

been missed by most of the project

developers. An extension of one

month has been given by SECI.

Table 3.5: Expected Future Allocations

Policy name Uttar Pradesh Karnataka

phase III

SECI phase IV Haryana Uttarakhand

Expected allocation

date

Q3 of 2014 Q3 of 2014 2014 2014 2014

Expected allocation

capacity

300 MW 50 MW 50 MW 50 MW 50 MW

Expected PPA

signing date

Q1 of 2015 Q1 of 2015 Not known Not known Not known

Expected

commissioning date

Q2 of 2016 Q2 and Q3 of 2016 Not known Not known Not known



4 Projects OutlookProjected quarterly PV installations in India (in MW)



5 Things we got wrong inthe last four quarters

5.1 Our projections across previous editionsof Solar Compass compared to actual marketperformance over the last four quarters

Despite our best efforts, the solar PV landscape in India is usually difficult

to forecast due to policy uncertainties. In the figure, we have depicted our

quarterly projections over various editions benchmarked against actual

capacity additions. In certain quarters our projections have been close, while

on certain occasions, we have been wrong with significant margins. The

rationale behind the misjudged predictions has been mentioned in the table.

Having learnt from our misjudgments in the past, our endeavor is to do better

in the future.

Historically, we have found that projects for parity with or without

REC benefits tend to exceed our expectations, projects under the NSM are

usually on target and projects under various state policies are inevitably

behind schedule even though we have been fairly pessimistic about them to

begin with.



Policy Rationale for variation

Parity based projects

with or without REC

benefits

In the preceding quarters, we witnessed renewed interest inthese projects and forecast another 60 MW capacity to comethrough. Typically, revenue from such projects is combinedwith AD benefits and/or RECs. Over the past quarter, around29 MW of such projects were commissioned, lower than the 60MW we forecast in the previous edition of the solar compass.Projects for about 100 MW continue to be under deployment.

RPO projects In the previous edition of the solar compass, we had forecastthat 40 MW of RPO projects will come up in the first quarter.This was based on the presumption that the NTPC wouldat least partially commission its 50 MW project in MadhyaPradesh (EPC contracted to TATA Power Solar) which was dueto be commissioned by the end of March 2014. Only 10 MWof NTPCs project in Andhra Pradesh has been commissioned(updated as on 20thMarch 2014).

State Policies No projects were commissioned under the state policy inKarnataka where we expected 12 MW to come up during thequarter.

As mentioned previously, under the Karnataka state policy,deadlines were extended without penalties. Until and unlessthe delayed projects are fined with strict time bound penalties,the delays can be expected to be a regular phenomenon.



Our Blogs From The Last Quarter

National-level solar initiatives Acme, Azure Power and SunEdison get the biggest share of the NSM

How will financing of NSM projects work? Indias subsidy scheme for de-centralized solar to stay subdued in 2014

as well

National Solar Mission to miss capacity targets for the year by

a significant margin

State-level solar initiatives Keralas rooftop programs - Lessons for other states

Kerala announces a draft net-metering policy

Is solar in Tamil Nadu back?

Tamil Nadu solar market in peril

Jammu & Kashmir signs an agreement for a 7,500 MW solar power plant

Market analysis As international solar manufacturing companies boom, India gets

left behind

Solar Power Developers Association meets Dr. Farooq Abdullah

Should Indian developers be worried about rising solar costs in 2014?

Restricting open access power purchase- a regressive move?

Thought leadership Indias energy future BPs thoughts and ours

What are Indias strategic energy options? Part 1: The energy demand

What are Indias strategic energy options? Part 2: Comparisons with the

US, Germany and China

What are Indias strategic energy options? Part 3: Cost trajectories of fossil

and renewable energy

What are Indias strategic energy options? Part 4: A game changing shift

to solar
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19/20

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BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consulting

company with an entrepreneurial

approach based in New Delhi and

Munich. Founded in 2008, the

company focuses on renewable energy

technologies in the Indian market.

BRIDGE TO INDIA offers market

intelligence, strategic consulting and

project development services to Indian

and international investors, companiesand institutions. Through customized

solutions for its clients, BRIDGE TO

INDIA contributes to a sustainable

world by implementing the latest

technological and systemic innovations

where their impact is the highest.

Contact us at:

[email protected]

www.bridgetoindia.com

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Bridge to India India Solar Compass April 2014 Final

Documents

Transcript of Bridge to India India Solar Compass April 2014 Final