Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast, 2015- Business Aircraft Market Forecast, 2015-2024
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MARKET FORECAST2015-2024BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFTBUSINESSAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and rail industry, political instability and force majeure), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, retirement benefit plan risk, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A the Corporations financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statement set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as may, will, expect, intend, anticipate, plan, foresee, believe, continue, maintain or align, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation refer to the respective Guidance and forward-looking statements sections in Overview, Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier Transportation sections in the Managements Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) in the Corporations financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
All amounts in this presentation are expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Global 5000, Global 6000, Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 40, Learjet 45, Learjet 70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85, Challenger 350, Challenger 650, Bombardier, Bombardier Business Aircraft, Bombardier Vision and The Evolution of Mobility are either Unregistered or Registered Trade-Mark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
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1. INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT OVERVIEW
3. BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET DRIVERS
4. BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST
5. FORECAST BY REGION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTIONBombardier Business Aircraft is pleased to present its 2015 edition of the Business Aircraft Market Forecast, debuting at the European Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition in Geneva. The forecast provides an in-depth look at how six primary market drivers (wealth creation, globalization of trade, emerging markets, new aircraft programs, replacement demand and accessibility) will shape the future of business aviation over the next 10 years.
This analysis focuses specifically on aircraft categories in which Bombardier competes: Light, Medium and Large, as well as major world regions.
THE BUSINESS JET MARKET IN 2014In 2014, the business jet industry continued its path towards recovery, led by the strengthening North American economy. North American business jet orders and deliveries in the markets where Bombardier competes were strong in 2014, driven by solid domestic business investment, a thriving stock market and sustained consumer spending. However, orders and deliveries lagged in other regions as a result of several challenges which held back a broader recovery in the world economy. European GDP growth remained sluggish overall but gained some momentum in the later part of 2014.
Chinas growth decelerated while Russia ended the year on the brink of recession due to falling oil prices and significant economic restrictions imposed by the western world.
Last year the industry reached 601 aircraft deliveries, a 6% increase from 2013. Demand for long range business travel continued to grow, though at a slower pace, which resulted in a total of 200 deliveries for Large category aircraft. Medium category aircraft had 212 total deliveries, a modest recovery expected to accelerate as world GDP growth improves in upcoming years. Light category deliveries amounted to 189 aircraft, less than half the level of deliveries seen when the market peaked in 2008.
Having secured more aircraft orders and deliveries since the downturn in 2009 than any other manufacturer, Bombardier Business Aircraft continues to hold its position as industry leader. In 2014, Bombardier Business Aircraft delivered 204 business aircraft, amounting to 34% delivery market share.
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Our 10-year delivery forecast predicts 9,000 business aircraft deliveries valued at $267 billion. In the following sections, we present our detailed forecast and analysis of the business jet industry for key regions across the world.1In a series of studies conducted between 2009 and 2013, NEXA Advisors evaluated the impact of business jet ownership on small to large companies, as well as government agencies. Its most recent study on business aviation and the worlds top performing companies concluded that companies using business jets were likely to outperform non-users on revenue growth, innovation, employee satisfaction and market share.
BUSINESS JET VALUE PROPOSITION AND LONG-TERM VISION FOR THE INDUSTRY Business jets have proven to be a cost-effective, fast, and safe method of travel1. The benefits of business travel include on-demand flight scheduling, the ability to conduct business privately during flights, direct access to company sites and reduced travel time. While we acknowledge the slow growth facing the industry today, we believe the strong value proposition for business jets remains uncontested. In the long term, with continued wealth creation in mature markets and increased penetration of business jets in emerging markets, the overall market for business jets will show strong growth. As a result, our long-term forecast remains relatively unchanged from the forecast published last year.
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34%DELIVERY MARKET SHARE
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT Strength in numbers
10TH CONSECUTIVE YEAR AS A LEADER1
CHALLENGER 300 SERIES
LEARJET 40/45/70/75 SERIES
1 Delivery unit leader in those segments where Bombardier competes. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 6
The evolution of these drivers will shape the outlook of the industry
Demand generated from the retirement
Alternatives to full business jet ownership
Expansion of economic activity in the world, measured by Gross Domestic Product
Expansion of trade from interregional partners
to a globally connected economy
Growth of the worlds developing markets and
the convergence of business jet adoption towards mature market
Introduction of new and technologically advanced aircraft models into the
BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET DRIVERSDrivers have a positive relationship with the business aircraft ma