Berger a 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15

Georges Lemaître Center for Earth and Climate Research

Formely Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics George Lemaître

Place L. Pasteur, 3

1348 Louvain-la-Neuve

Global warming slowdown 2002-2011 and ice melting

André Berger, Qiuzhen Yin, Hervé Nifenecker, Jean Poitou

Common Future, Session 1122, UPNC Jussieu, Amphi 15, 7 July 2015 (17-18:30)

Hansen et al., 2015 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

+0.68

Base period 1951-1980

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Karl et al. (2015) corr data Cowtan-Way Revised 2013 with Arctic data

10-year mean

Global annual mean temperature

Trend 2002-2011

-0.0031 HadCRUT4

0.0037 Cowtan-Way

Trend 2000-2014

0.0116 Karl et al.

Berger, Yin, Nifenecker, Poitou, 2015

Table SM1. Global surface temperature trend over different periods between 1984 and 2014

Period Trend °C/yr Source Period Trend °C/yr souce deceleration

°C/yr2

1984-1998 0,026 IPCC 1998-2012 0,005 IPCC 0,021

1984-1998 0,0266 HadCRUT4 1998-2012 0,0054 HadCRUT4 0,0212

1984-1998 0,0263 Cowtan-Way 1998-2012 0,0109 Cowtan-Way 0,0154

1984-1998 0,0266 HadCRUT4 1998-2012 0,0086 Karl et al.new 0,018

1984-1998 0,0266 HadCRUT4 1998-2014 0,0062 HadCRUT4 0,0204


1984-2002 0,0236 HadCRUT4 2002-2011 -0,0031 HadCRUT4 0,0267


1992-2001 0,0328 HadCRUT4 2002-2011 -0,0031 HadCRUT4 0,0359

1992-2001 0,0328 HadCRUT4 2002-2011 0,0037 Cowtan-Way 0,0291



2000-2014 is used for Karl et al. because their new data are not availble in details


Pre-industrial : 280 ppmv

1958 April : 315.3 ppmv

2014 : 398.6 ppmv

May 2014 : 401.78

May 2015 : 403.94

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Update Keeling

1 ppmv = 1 cm3 in 1 m3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

According to IPCC, hiatus might be related to

-bias in the surface air temperature data mainly in Arctic

(Cowtan-Way) and over ocean (Karl et al.)

-larger absorption by the ocean or larger transfer of heat into

the deep ocean (but see Dieng and Cazenave et al.)

-greater volcanic activity (see Robock, Rutgers) or weaker

solar activity (see NASA)

-natural variablity at the decennal time scale possibly linked

to the atmosphere-ocean interactions (El Nino, AO,

…England et al., Trenberth and Fasullo…)

-decrease in stratospheric water vapor (Solomon) or in

CFCs and methane emissions (Estrada et al.)

Unit: 106 km2


Table 3. Average ice loss and melt in Gt per year (IPCC, 2013; Marzeion et al, 2012; Massonnet et al., 2012 and 2013)

(all uncertainties are available in Berger et al. , Global warming slowdown and ice melting, 2015)

Ice loss Ice Melt

1992-2001 2002-2011 % of ice loss (2002-2011)-(1992-2001)

Gt per year GT per year 1019

per year2

Greenland 34 215 50 90

Antarctica 30 147 14 10

Glaciers 173 240 66 45

Sea ice Arctic 263 688 50 212

Sea ice Antarctica 81 -39* 50 -60

Total 581±130 1251±273 297±143

Energy for fusion19.4±4.3 41.8±9.1 9.9±4.8 1019 per year

* sea ice growth instead of loss or melt


Table 2. Decrease of the rate of warming between 1992-2001 and 2002-2011 and consequences

HadCrut4 Cowtan-Way Karl et al.

rate of warming 2002-2011 -0,0031±0,0095 0,0037±0,0137 0,0116±0,0067 °C per year

slowing down from 1992-2001 0,0359±0,015 0,0291±0,018 0,0212±0,013 °C per year2

energy left 18,4±7,7 14,9±7,9 10,9±6,7 1019 J per yr2

Equivalent ice melt 551±231 446±236 326±201 Gt per year

% of accelerated melt (297 Gt per yr) 186 150 110


CONSEQUENTLY

- The share of the energy gained by the atmosphere for the period

1971-2010 given by IPCC 2013 has to be adapted for the period

2002-2011 as follows:

1971-2010 2002-2011

- Total 685 900 1019 J per year

- Warm atmosphere 1% 0,21 to 0,66%

- Ice loss 3% 4,64%

- Ice melt due to atmos 2,27%

- Acceleration of ice melt 1,1%

- Deceleration of global warming 1,66 to 1,21%

- Finally, the slowdown disappears if the energy related to the melting

of mainly sea ice,Greenland and glaciers is added to the enthalpy of the

atmosphere as shown in the next figure


CONCLUSIONS

-the slowdown of the global warming going from 0.328 °C per decade

for 1992-2001 to between 0.212 to 0,291for 2002-2011 corresponds

to an enthalpy of 11±7 to 15±8 1019 J per year2 which has been used

for other than warming the atmosphere

-in particular, this is equivalent to a melting of between 326±201 and

446±236 Gt of ice per year which corresponds pretty well to the

acceleration of the ice melting of 297±143 Gt per year2

due to the atmosphere

-as a consequence, it is proposed that this acceleration of ice melting

between the periods 1992-2001 and 2002-2011 is at the origin of the

slowdown of the warming between these two periods. If this is the

only reason, the slowdown might continue as long as sea ice and

glaciers will melt


Berger a 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15

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