Asheim, L.J., Zabron, C.N., Mwaseba, D. and EIK, L.O. Modeling economics of carbon sequestration in...

Asheim, L.J., Zabron, C.N., Mwaseba, D. and EIK, L.O.

Modeling economics of carbon sequestration in Tanzanian farm production systems

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SYNOPSISSYNOPSIS

Production systems in Mgeta and Njombe

Challenges, problems and opportunities

Method

Progress farm modeling (Mgeta)

Further model development

Parameterization

Conclusion

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Vegetables in very steep slopes or terraces

Manual field work that can`t be mechanized

Two season cycles are important:

Rain:Sept.-May-270days & dry:Jun.-Aug.95days

Crop-livestock integrated production system

Dairy goats, >1500 of Norwegian breed

Pork, indigenous meat goats, and poultry

Production System in Mgeta Production System in Mgeta

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Manual field work – can be mechanized

Only one rain season (February-May)

More land with opportunities for forests

Crop-livestock dominant agricultural system

Dairy cows (Friesian, Ayshire, Jersey)

Pork, indigenous cows, goats, and poultry

Production System in NjombeProduction System in Njombe

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ChallengesChallenges

Climate change, increased population, intensive production systems, reduced land use, competition for water, poverty and malnutrition!

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Environmentally disastrous production system

Agricultural productivity can be increased:

Dairy goats and cows can milk more

Improved feeding

Improved veterinary services

Grass and multipurpose trees (MPPT) for:

Increased soil carbon sequestration

Management of erosion

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Problems and opportunities (Mgeta)Problems and opportunities (Mgeta)

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Linear programming (LP) model to identify activities with maximum objective function, not violate constraints, no negative activity

Max Z = c’x, subject to Ax≤b, x≥0

Z = objective function, farm gross marginc’ = a vector of marginal activity gross margins

x = a vector of activity levels

A = a matrix of activity resource requirements

b = a vector of resources e.g land, work h

Built in Excel, price level 2012, assumed certainty

MethodMethod

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MgetaMgeta

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Cropping homestead land (0.28 ha):

Tomatoes, potatoes, cabbage, both seasons

N-fixing: beans, green peas, both seasons

Grass, MPPT, permanent

Cropping distant farm land (0.34 ha):

Beans and maize, both seasons

Grass and MPPT, permanent (haymaking)

Both areas: Fruit trees in between

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Activities (Mgeta)Activities (Mgeta)

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Communal land: Grass and MPPT

Feed purchase: Maize bran in both seasons

Animals:

Dairy goats, for milk sale or self-sufficiency

Meat goats or pork for meat and manure

Laying hens for self-sufficiency

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Activities cont.Activities cont.

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Using mineral fertilizers and manure for crops

Adding cost of land maintenance

Hiring workers, dry and rain season

Consuming vegetable, dry and rain season

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Activities cont.Activities cont.

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Terracing and land maintenance

Terracing and land maintenance

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Categories of land according to season

Allowable number of fruit trees/ha

Allowable amounts of communal land feed

Mineral fertilizer < purchased amounts

Manure use < farm produced + purchased

Intercropping:

Potatoes < green peas in both seasons

Maize < beans in both seasons

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ResourcesResources

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Energy in feed (MJ) < produced each season

Protein in feed (kg AAT) < produced each season

Work < available time + hired each season

Family energy need (MJ) < produced each season

Protein need (kg) < produced each season

Vegetable consumed < produced amounts each season

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ResourcesResources

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Options for increased soil C sequestration:

Limit vegetable crops (e.g. only for family)

Increase grass & MPPT (e.g. 50% of area)

More purchased feed adding more manure to soils

Is less feeding of crop residues efficient for C sequestration?

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Further model developmentFurther model development

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Policy instruments:

subsidies for feed purchase,

investment support in yoghurt production

payment for permanent grassland & MPPT

support for purchase of mineral fertilizers

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Model development: cont.Model development: cont.

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Mgeta model based on questionnaire to farmers (Cuthibert N. Zabron)

Njombe questionnaire (Nina Lande)

Other areas (Haydom) and techniques (CA)

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Model parameterizationModel parameterization

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In Mgeta we basically end up with a study of economics of a changeover from vegetable crop systems to specialized dairy goat and more permant grass systems with MPPT

Njombe has not come so far, but it will be dairy cows instead of goats and forest planting for C sequestration is an issue

Other areas (Haydom) and techniques (CA) is not decided yet

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ConclusionConclusion

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Thanks for listeningThanks for listening

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Asheim, L.J., Zabron, C.N., Mwaseba, D. and EIK, L.O. Modeling economics of carbon sequestration in...

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