ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS & CLIMATE WORKSHOP

ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS & CLIMATE WORKSHOP

GUAM

Chip Guard

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Weather Forecast Office Guam

Purpose of the Workshop

Familiarize you with tropical cyclone hazards, characteristics, and behavior

Familiarize you with the tropical cyclone program and products for Guam

Discuss typhoon risks & vulnerabilities for Guam Familiarize you with causes of weather around Guam Familiarize you with other weather and ocean hazards,

including rip currents, tsunamis, volcanoes Familiarize you with Guam’s climate Provide an opportunity for you to ask questions on

weather- or climate-related topics

Tropical Cyclone Topics

Tropical Cyclone Characteristics, Behavior and Hazards

NWS Tropical Cyclone Program NWS Tropical Cyclone Products Timing of Products

Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Tropical Cyclone Structure and

Behavior

Hazards Associated with a Tropical Cyclone—The Triple Threat

What Is A Tropical Cyclone?

It’s a large area of clouds with a warm core low pressure center, which usually forms over tropical waters and has an organized circulation.

It is like a pancake!

Stages of Tropical Cyclones

TROPICAL CYCLONE...a general term that includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons

TROPICAL DEPRESSION...a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less

TROPICAL STORM...a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds within the range 39 to 73 mph

TYPHOON...a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater

SUPER TYPHOON...a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater

Different Stages of Tropical Cyclone Development

Different Shapes and Sizes of Tropical Cyclones

Necessary Ingredients a pre-existing disturbance warm ocean water...temperature at least

80 degrees F down to a depth of 150 ft light upper level winds...little or no wind

shear

Typhoon Structure

THE TRIPLE THREAT

Winds

Storm surge and surf

Heavy rain producing floods and

mudslides

Winds: Sustained and Gusts

wind dir

07 11 15 19 23 03 07

85(100)

70(80)

50(60)

35(40)

17(20)

0(0)

105(120)

ktmph

29.770

29.495

29.220

28.945

28.670

28.395

28.120

stn pres

direction

pressure

speed

Tropical Cyclone Winds

TERRAIN INFLUENCES ON WINDWIND SPEEDS (MPH)

LEESIDESHADOWING

BEHIND PEAKS

FUNNELINGBETWEEN PEAKS

(E)80 G 150 (D)

130 G 160

(A)125 G 150

(F)125 G 150

(C)105 G 150 (B)

115 G 150

130 G 150

120 G 150

Most tourists stay here

Most People

Live Here

Few People Live Here

15 feet-----

700 feet--

---1300 feet

150

Types of Wind Damage

Wind Damage

Wind Asymmetry Associated With Tropical Cyclones

“Right side of the storm" is defined with respect to the storm's motion: if the cyclone is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the cyclone is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc.

In general, the strongest winds are found on the right side of the cyclone because the motion of the cyclone also contributes to its swirling winds.

Wind Intensity and Distribution in a Tropical Cyclone

Strongest winds are located in right quadrant because of effect of speed of movement is added to wind distribution. (Likewise, winds are weaker in left quadrant because effect of the speed of movement is subtracted from the wind field. )

Therefore, if cyclone passes south or west of island, then winds may be stronger than forecast. Or, if a cyclone passes north or east of island, then winds may be weaker than forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Asymmetries

100 MPH

60 MPH

75 MPH

125 MPH

60 MPH

75 MPH

100 MPH

125 MPH

60 MPH

75 MPH 100 MPH

125 MPH

60 MPH

75 MPH

100 MPH

125 MPH 60 MPH

75 MPH

100 MPH

125 MPH

(a) (b)

(d)(c)

Wind Direction if a TC Passes North or East or North of Your Island

Bay Ballot’s Law: Face into wind and low pressure is to your right (in the northern hemisphere)

If winds are from the NE, the TC is SE of island If winds are from the N, the TC is E of island If winds are from the NW, the TC is NE of island If winds are from the W, the TC is N of island If winds are from the SW, the TC is NW of island

Wind Direction if a TC Passes South or West of Your Island

Bay Ballot’s Law: Face into wind and low pressure is to your right (in the northern hemisphere)

If winds are from the NE, the TC is SE of island If winds are from the E, the TC is S of island If winds are from the SE, the TC is SW of island If winds are from the S, the TC is W of island If winds are from the SW, the TC is NW of island

HIGH SEAS—Small Craft Stay in Port!!!!Inter-Island Travel is Dangerous!!!!

Guam

STORM SURGE Storm surge is the increase is sea height above the normal tide level,

caused by the tropical cyclone’s low pressure and strong winds. Low pressure component...1.5 ft elevation per 50 mb drop in pressure Wind component…strong winds cause water to pile up in the right front

quadrant. Inundation is the water that penetrates into normally dry land. Depends

on speed and duration of the wind; TC size, speed of motion; shape of coast, slope of bottom, width of the reef; and tidal state (high or low) are all important. The storm surge plus the tide is the storm tide.

Storm Surge: Affects of Reefs

Storm Surge

Surf and Storm Surge

Heavy Rainfall

Rainfall produced by cyclones can be highly variable Amounts depend on the size of the storm, the speed at

which it is moving, and the location of its rain bands Typically 6 to 12 inches of rain can fall as a storm passes Rain rates can be 6+ inches per hour, 20+ inches total Coastal flooding will occur when the ocean level is

elevated and rain cannot flow back to the sea Flash flooding many occur as streams and rivers overflow Mudslides may result due to saturated soils and wind

stress on trees and foliage

Heavy Rainfall Producing Floods and Flash Floods

Heavy rains are rapidly directed to the base of the mountain causing flash floods

Elevated sea levels prevent rains from draining to the sea causing coastal flooding

Heavy Rainfall Contributes to Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding

Heavy Rainfall Producing Mudslides


Estimated Critical Parameters ~ 15” rain falls in 36 hours continued 1” per hour rain

We Will Issue a Special Weather Statement for Mudslides When:

~ 10” rain falls in 36 hours or less rainfall greater than 0.50” per hour is expected to

continue


Most Vulnerable Areas

where a slide occurred before, but bedrock is not exposed

the steeper areas made of clay

where vegetation has been removed

How Do Tropical Cyclones Get Named?

JTWC used to name them Now the World Meteorological

Organization names them through

the Japan Meteorological Agency Five lists of names taken from 12

countries Does anyone know the Chamorro

names?

How Do Tropical Cyclones Get Named?

Does anyone know the Chamorro names?

Roke, Francisco, Maria, Vicente

Break Time

WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE (WFO) GUAM’S TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAM FOR GUAM

Weather Forecast Office Guam

Guam’s Area of Responsibility

WFO Guam Tropical Cyclone Warning Points

TROPICAL CYCLONEPROGRAM Tropical cyclone watch and

warning procedures

Tropical cyclone program products/messages

Products schedule

Warning Process

Starts with the Products of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii

Weather Service Forecast Office in Guam Analyzes JTWC Products and Issues Watches and Warnings

Weather Forecast Office Guam Notifies Guam Civil Defense

Warning ProcessHomeland Security/Office of Civil Defense Works with the Governor’s Office to set CORs

Warning ProcessCivil Defense informs the general public and government agencies, and provides preparedness instructions

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC):

Located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii; area of responsibility is 110 million square miles

Consists of a team of Navy and Air Force meteorologists who use numerous tools to analyze TC location, intensity and wind distribution, and computer models to help predict the future movement

JTWC responsible for all US tropical cyclone forecasting in the Northwest Pacific

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC):

Monitors region for developing tropical weather systems—Significant Tropical Weather Advisory

Alerts that systems are showing the potential for development into SIGNIFICANT tropical cyclones within the next 12 to 24 hours—Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

Issues track and intensity forecasts for all tropical cyclones (30 mph and stronger) in the region—Tropical Cyclone Warnings

NWS WFO Guam:

Monitors Area of Responsibility (AOR) for weather systems showing signs of developing into tropical cyclones—Satellite Interpretation Message.

Maintains direct communications with JTWC regarding these areas of disturbed weather.

Will issue Special Weather Statements to cover areas not yet warned on by JTWC. We may change to a Tropical Disturbance Advisory

NWS WFO Guam:

Evaluates JTWC warnings for potential effect upon specific islands within the AOR. Based on assessments, WFO Guam sets tropical cyclone watches and warnings, and issues other products.

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories (WTPQ31-35 PGUM)

Typhoon Local Statements (WTPQ81-85 PGUM)

We watch out for Micronesia and will deviate from the JTWC warnings if we deem it necessary.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH AND WARNING PROCEDURES

DEFINITIONS

ISSUING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE ISLANDS

CANCELING WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Definitions Damaging Winds: Sustained surface winds of 39 mph or

more (averaged over a 1-minute period).

Destructive Winds: Sustained surface winds of 60 mph or more (averaged over a 1-minute period).

Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement for specific islands that a tropical storm or developing tropical storm (winds 39 to 73 mph inclusive) poses a possible threat generally within 48 hours.

Typhoon Watch: An announcement for specific islands that a typhoon or developing typhoon (winds 74 mph or more) poses a possible threat generally within 48 hours.

Definitions

Tropical Storm Warning: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including 1-minute sustained surface winds within the range of 39 to 73 mph, that are expected at specified islands within 24 hours or are occurring.

Typhoon Warning: A warning that typhoon conditions, including 1-minute sustained surface winds of 74 mph or more, are expected at specified islands within 24 hours or are occurring.

Issuing Watches and Warnings

The goal of timing the typhoon warning on initiation of 39 mph winds is to provide the people about 24 hours—12 hours of daylight—to complete preparations before weather conditions begin to deteriorate significantly.

If we issued the warning 24 hours prior to the expected start of typhoon force winds (74 mph or more), final preparations might not be completed before the arrival of damaging winds, exposing people to dangerous conditions. This could happen with a typhoon that speeds up or rapidly intensifies.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible

within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible

within 48 hours.

A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected

within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph to 73 mph) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected

within 24 hours.

A Typhoon Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify into a typhoon.

Issuing Watches and Warnings Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24

hours.

Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch: If the forecast winds are being produced by a typhoon passing at some distance, the pre-existing typhoon watch is also maintained (remains in effect). (Note that the Typhoon Watch indicates that typhoon strength winds are still possible at the location but not currently expected.) Thus, a Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch may be in effect simultaneously for an island.

Canceling Watches and Warnings

WATCHES are canceled when the threat of the tropical storm or typhoon ends, either by moving away or by dissipating

WARNINGS are canceled when damaging winds (39 mph) cease and the potential for coastal flooding/inundation by the sea has subsided or when damaging winds are no longer expected.

In either case, there is close coordination with HS/OCD.

Canceling Watches and Warnings

A typhoon warning will not normally be stepped down to a tropical storm warning as winds diminish to below typhoon intensity at an island. Rather, the typhoon warning will remain in place until winds are less than damaging (below 39 mph), and coastal flooding has ended.

A typhoon warning may be downgraded to a tropical storm warning only if a typhoon changes direction or weakens significantly, and typhoon conditions are deemed no longer possible.

Conditions vs. Watch/Warnings

Based on onset of damaging winds…

Condition 4: within 72 hours Condition 3: within 48 hours Condition 2: within 24 hours Condition 1: within 12 hours

Watch: within 48 hours Warning: within 24 hours

Summary

Watch indicates damaging winds (39 mph) are possible within 48 hours or less.

Types of watches: Tropical Storm (39 to 73 mph) or Typhoon (74 mph or greater); provides an indication of the tropical cyclone’s possible sustained wind threat.

Warning indicates damaging winds (39 mph) are expected

within 24 hours or less.

Types of warnings: Tropical Storm (39 to 73 mph) or Typhoon (74 mph or greater); provides an indication of the expected sustained winds at an island as the tropical cyclone passes.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS

JTWC Bulletin

Public Advisory

Local Statements

Position Estimates

WTPN32 PGTW 200300 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z2 --- NEAR 12.0N3 135.1E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 135.1E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 12.6N9 133.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 13.4N8 131.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 14.2N7 130.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS ---

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SynopticpositionMovement

Max winds

12-hr fcst

24-hr fcst

36-hr fcst

35 kt radius

50 kt radius

35 kt radius

JTWC Bulletin

JTWC Bulletin (cont’d) EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 15.1N7 128.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 16.8N5 125.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ---REMARKS:200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.2N5 134.7E5. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE EXISTS OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1, 201500Z8, 202100Z5 AND 210300Z6.//

NNNN

48-hr fcst

50 kt radius

35 kt radius

72 hr fcst

50 kt radius

35 kt radius

Remarks

JTWC Warning

Tropical Cyclone Public AdvisoryPrimary source of cyclone information

Public Advisory Used to issue and cancel all tropical

cyclone watches and warning

Provides essential information about tropical cyclone:

Location; movement; intensity

Gives general forecast information: timing of damaging and typhoon winds, storm surge height, and precipitation amounts

Provides general call to action statements/ precautions that the public should take

Types of Public Advisories Standard Public Advisory:

Issued every 6 hours (2 pm, 8 pm, 2 am, and 8 am) after receipt of new JTWC warning

Used to place an island in under a watch or warning Intermediate Public Advisory

Issued between Standard Advisories (11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm, and 5 am) Used to update TC location and track information May be used to clear watches and warnings

Special Public Advisory Issued to provide significant TC forecast changes (can be any time

except Standard Public Advisory times) May be issued to set new watches or warnings between Standard

Advisory times

Public Advisory Layout

...HEADLINE... SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS

IN EFFECT CALL TO ACTION STATEMENTS LOCATION, MOVEMENT & CURRENT

INTENSITY FORECAST INFORMATION NEXT ADVISORY TIME

WTPQ31 PGUM 012200BULLETINTROPICAL STORM YANCY PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 04NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU8 AM GUAM LST WED AUG 02 1996

...TROPICAL STORM YANCY BATTERS WOLEAI AND ACCELERATES TOWARD SOROL...

A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND ULITHI AT 8 AM GUAM TIME...2200Z. A TYPHOONWARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOROL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FORWOLEAI.

RESIDENT OF WOLEAI SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTER UNTIL ADVISED BY YAP DISASTER CONTROL. RESIDENTS OF SOROL SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY ANDPREPARE TO MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER. RESIDENTS OF YAP AND ULITHI SHOULD CONTINUEPREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM YANCY.

A 7 AM GUAM TIME...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM YANCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.1 DEGREES NORTHLATITUDE AND 143.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI.

TROPICAL STORM YANCY HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 12 MPH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ANDCONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS COURSE FOR 24 HOURS. YANCY MADE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH SOUTH OF WOLEAI NEAR 1900Z AND IS MOVING AWAY. CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO SOROL WILL BE TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. CLOSEST POINT OFAPPROACH TO ULITHI ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO YAP ON THURSDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM YANCY CONTINUES TOINTENSIFY AND IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHESSOROL. DAMAGING WINDS...39 MPH OR MORE.. EXTEND OUTWARD 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER ANDWILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WOLEAI FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BEGIN AT SOROLEARLY THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO TYPHOON INTENSITY...74 MPH...BY MIDNIGHT. DAMAGINGWINDS WILL BEGIN OVER ULITHI LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT YAP...DAMAGING WINDS BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE OF 2 FT WITH SURF OF 20 FT ON OUTER REEFS IS POSSIBLE AT SOROL AS YANCY PASSES. AT YAP...SURGE OF 3 FT IS POSSIBLE OVER OPEN REEFS AND 9 FT IN SMALL BAYS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS YANCY PASSES.

REPEATING...A 7 AM GUAM TIME...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM YANCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 143.3E ORABOUT 46 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH ANDINTENSIFYING.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 11 AM GUAMTIME FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM.

ZIOBRO

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HeadlinerWarnings ineffectCall-to-action

Location

Movement

Intensity

Forecast Info

Repeat location

Next bulletin

Forecaster

Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

Detailed bulletin containing tropical cyclone information

Local Statements Provides detailed local information regarding the

expected magnitude and timing of the tropical cyclone’s threat to each affected island

Lists all watches and warnings in effect Provides evacuation and other information from OCD Presents storm specific information: location, movement

and intensity Wind information: current wind, onset time of damaging

and typhoon winds, maximum wind, potential damage from forecast winds, ending times

Storm surge, surf, and inundation information Expected precipitation amounts and potential for flooding

and mudslides

Local Statement Layout ...HEADLINE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT STORM SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS:

PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS (EMO PROVIDED COR/EVACUATION INFO)

STORM SURGE/SURF INFORMATION WIND INFORMATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST

NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUANCE TIME

WTPQ81 PGUM 012300HLSPQ1TROPICAL STORM YANCY LOCAL STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU9 AM LST WED AUG 02 1996

...TROPICAL STORM YANCY HEADING TOWARD SOROL...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND SOROL. A TROPICAL STORMWARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI.

AT 7 AM GUAM TIME...01/2100Z...TROPICAL STORM YANCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.1N DEGREES NORTHLATITUDE 143.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE... OR ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI...210MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOROL...320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI...390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OFYAP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. YANCY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTAT 12 MPH...AWAY FROM WOLEAI AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF SOROL TOWARD THURSDAYMORNING.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN FOR WOLEAI...SOROL...ULITHI...YAP... ANDNGULU.

FOR WOLEAI......PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...DISASTER CONDITION 1 REMAINS IN EFFECT. ALL RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN IN SAFESHELTER UNTIL NOTIFIED CONDITIONS ARE SAFE BY YAP DCO.

...WIND INFORMATION...DAMAGING WINDS...39 MPH AND MORE...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WOLEAI UNTIL EARLY THISAFTERNOON AS YANCY MOVES AWAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS YANCY MOVES AWAY. SURF OF 10 TO 15 FTWILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR SOROL......PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS..ETC....WIND INFORMATION...ETC....STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...ETC....PRECIPITATION INFORMATION...ETC.

FOR ULITHI......ETC.

FOR YAP......ETC.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

MUNDELL

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HeadlinerWarnings ineffect

Cyclone Info

IslandForecast

Next bulletin

Forecaster

IslandForecast

Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) or Zulu (Z) Time

What is UTC or Z time? It is the time at Greenwich, England

It is the time on the Zero (0o) Meridian It is 12 hours from the Date Line (180o) Meridian Why use UTC or Zulu time?

So we can compare times anywhere in the world.

How does Guam/Chamorro time differ from UTC? We are 10 hours ahead. 00 UTC = 10 am; 12 UTC = 10 pm; 14 UTC = 12 am the next day; 20 UTC = 6 am the next day

Product Schedule

Tropical cyclone warnings are valid at:

00Z (10 am), 06Z (4 pm), 12Z (10 pm), and 18Z (4 am)

Tropical cyclone warnings are issued at:

03Z (1 pm), 09Z (7 pm), 15Z (1 am), and 21Z (7 am)

Product Schedule

Position Estimates

Position Estimates Only issued when tropical cyclone is within radar

range (230 miles) and radar info is reliable Short bulletin that updates the center location Lat/long info and as a distance and bearing from one

of the Mariana Islands (typically Guam) Updated hourly This position data will be used as the location

information in succeeding Public Advisories and Local Statements

Position Estimates

Position Estimates

USER BEWARE! Short term

variations may not be indicative of changes in overall motion of the tropical cyclone

Product Schedule

WFO Guam Office Information OPERATIONS HOURS: OPEN 24 HOURS

IMPORTANT PHONE NUMBERS:

Warning Coordination Meteorologist: (671) 472-0946 Guam Duty Forecaster: (671) 472-0950 Guam FAX: (671) 472-7405 Guam HS/OCD (671) 475-9600

WFO GUAM INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam http://www.weather.gov/guam

JTWC PRODUCTS: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Any Questions?

Now HS/OSD Will Discuss Its Operations and Coordination

LUNCH BREAK

ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS & CLIMATE WORKSHOP

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Transcript of ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS & CLIMATE WORKSHOP