An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009

Jurgita BucyteAdviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs

ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010

Agenda

About Leaseurope About Leaseurope

Global Leasing Markets in 2009Global Leasing Markets in 2009

Evolution of the European Leasing MarketEvolution of the European Leasing Market

European Leasing Market in 2009: European Leasing Market in 2009:

- Asset Breakdowns- Asset Breakdowns

- Regional Performance- Regional Performance

- Client Sectors- Client Sectors

European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing Penetration

The European Leasing Market in H1 2010The European Leasing Market in H1 2010

About Leaseurope

The voice of leasing and automotive rental in Europe

It brings together 45 Member Associations

In turn representing more than 1 300 finance leasing firms & more than 780 short term rental companies

Leaseurope represents ~93%of the European leasing market

Leaseurope members

US

ELFA

124 bil€

Leaseurope

209 bil€

Japan

JLA

38 bil€

New equipment leasing volumes (Leaseurope volumes include real estate)ELFA figures do not include passenger car leasingAELA figures are for FY 2009Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey, local leasing associations, Leaseurope estimates

Brazil

ABEL

11 bil€Australia

AELA & AFLA

10 bil€

Global Leasing Markets in 2009

Canada

CFLA

20 bil€

China

CLBA

29 bil€

-10%

0%

-19%

-32%-20%

Global Leasing Markets in 2009: Europe

Total Real Estate Movables

686 €bil 211 €bil 475 €bil

NEW VOLUMES

OUTSTANDINGS

Leaseurope Annual Survey

725 €bilEstimated TOTAL Market

Total Real Estate Movables

209 €bil 25 €bil 185 €bilLeaseurope Annual Survey

231 €bilEstimated TOTAL Market

Source: Leaseurope estimates, Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey of European Leasing29 member associations in 24 countries reporting, figures include hire purchase products when reported by member associations

Results from Leaseurope’s 2009 Annual Enquiry

Evolution of the European Leasing Market

-32.5%

-31.0%

-32.3%

Movables

New volumes % 2008/9

Evolution of the European leasing marketNew business, annual % change (1995 – 2009)

Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year Growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations. When adjusted for exchange rates, total new leasing volumes decreased by 30.3% from ’08 to ’09.Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total New Volumes Real Estate

30.0%

15.3% 14.8%16.5%

-8.7%

12.4%

-0.7%- €100 bil

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Evolution of the European Leasing Market

Total New Volumes Real Estate Movables

Evolution of the European leasing marketNew business, annual % change

CAGR calculated for the 18 associations reporting from ’95-’09Growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to yearGrowth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

5.8%

3.8%

5.4%

CAGR(1995-2009)

Evolution of the European Leasing Market

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual SurveyGrowth rates are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsNote: AT domestic leasing business decreased by 23%

NANA

-25 to - 35%

-15 to - 25%

- 50% and lower

-35 to - 50%

Evolution of new business by countryNew vol, annual % change (2009/2008)

The European Leasing Market in 2009

54% Automotive

7%

10%

12%

38%

16% 18%

Machines & equip

Cars

CVs

ICT

Big/other

Real estate

Leased assetsTotal new volumes per asset category, %

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual SurveyFigures shown in pie charts may not add to 100% due to rounding

20092008

11%

11%

19%18%

35%6%

Based on figures reported in the 2009 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations

Leaseurope’s weight in the car sector (2009)

The European Leasing Market in 2009

14 211 500546 500units

Total ST rentalLeasing

Portfolio/fleet

13 665 000

871077€ (bil)

5 500 900704 4004 796 500units

Total ST rentalLeasing

Cars financed/purchased

new carsbusiness use

76%61%

of which:

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Machinery ICT

-36.8%

-18.7%

-30%

-35%

-40%

The European Leasing Market in 2009

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%Total

-32.3%-35%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%Real Estate Movables

-31.0%-32.5%

-30%

-35%

Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: 2009 Leaseurope Annual Survey

CVs

-38.5%

Cars

-26.7%

Big/other

-41.1%

European leasing volumes per asset categoryAnnual % change (2009/2008)

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Regional performance by movable asset categoryNew business growth - annual % change (2009/2008)

Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Machines & Equip VehiclesICT Big/Other

CEE MED. UK ITBE,NLAT,CHNordic DE FR

-49%

-26%-22%

-52%

-27% -30%

-20%

-30% -32%

-25%

-32%-28% -26%

-58% -56%

-40%

The European Leasing Market in 2009

NordicCEE MED. UKIT DE FRBE,NLAT,CH

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars

Regional performance – automotive sectorNew business growth - annual % change (2009/2008)

Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuationsSource: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

-62%

-45%

-38% -39% -37% -37%-31%

-25%

-56%

-38%

-28%-26% -25% -23%

-19%-16%

The European Leasing Market in 2009

Leasing clientsNew movables leasing volumes by sector & cluster(2009)

Source: Leaseurope 2009 Annual Survey

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

DE UK FR IT MED. CEE NordicBE,NLAT,CH

Businesses Consumers Public Other

European Leasing Penetration

Total Volumes Real Estate Movables

Lease penetration is the share of total investment (excluding residential real estate) financed by leasing Calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation for the 20 associations reporting from ’99-’09Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat (GFCF)

Evolution of leasing penetration in Europe20 countries (1999-2009)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

16%

7%

22%18%

12%

3%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

European Leasing Penetration

Leasing (excl RE) Investment (excl RE)

Why is lease penetration falling ?Leasing vs investment growth (excl real estate)Annual % change

Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat, Commission Spring Forecast, Global Insight

European Investment

Total Investment Public Investment

Why is lease penetration falling ?Total vs public investment (2001-2015, Western Europe)Annual % change

Growth rates are calculated based on EU-15 (excl LU) including NO and CHSource: HIS Global Insight

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

European Lease Penetration

NANA

20% to 25%

> 25 %

10% to 15%

15% to 20%

< 10 %

Share of total investment financed by leasing

Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate)Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat

15.5%

2008

European Lease Penetration

Share of total investment financed by leasing

12.2%

NANA

20% to 25%

> 25 %

10% to 15%

15% to 20%

< 10 %

Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation (excluding residential real estate)Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat

2009

H1 2010New volumes*

94 bil€

The European Leasing Market in H1 2010

Source: Leaseurope Member Associations*24 member associations reporting; growth rates not adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

H1 2010/09 %

+0.3%

NANA

0 to 10%

over 10 %

-25% and lower

-10 to 0%

-25 to - 10%CEE cluster: -8.3%

Concluding Remarks

What’s next ??

Source: IHS Global Insight

Investment – annual change (% YoY)

CEE Europe

-56%

CEE:

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total new volumes (% YoY)

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

An Overview of the European Leasing Market in 2009

Jurgita BucyteAdviser in Statistics and Economic Affairs

ALB National Conference, Bucharest18 November 2010