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Prepared by ATB Financial, Economics & Research

January 2016

ALBERTA

ECONOMIC

OUTLOOK  

Q1 2016

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-1.0 -0.5 1.6 2.0

0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5

6.0 7.2 6.3 5.9

1.2 -0.3 1.8 1.1

4.195 4.248 4.303 4.364

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Sep'12 Sep'13 Sep'14 Sep'15

Alberta Canola and Wheat Prices

Source : Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 002-0043

    $   p

   e   r   m   e   t   r   i   c   t   o   n   n   e

canola

wheat

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Nov'11 Nov'12 Nov'13 Nov'14 Nov'15

Livestock Prices, Alberta

    d   o    l    l   a   r   s   p   e   r    h   u   n    d   r   e    d   w   e   i   g    h   t

Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM table 002-0043

cattle

hogs

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Dec'07 Dec'09 Dec'11 Dec'13 Dec'15

North American Lumber Prices*

Source: Random Lengths

* - compos ite price is a weighted average of 15 key framing lumber prices

   S   p   e   r   t    h   o   u   s   a   n    d    b   o   a   r    d    f   e   e   t

priced in $C

priced in $US

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Nov'12 Nov'13 Nov'14 Nov'15

Total Building Permits in Alberta

    $   m   i    l    l   i   o   n   s ,   s   e   a   s   o   n   a    l    l   y   a    d   j   u   s   t   e    d

Source : Statistics Canada, The Daily, Jan. 8, 2016 and CANSIM table 026-0006

residential

non-

residential

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-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15

Change in Employment in Alberta

Sou rce: Sta tistics Canada, The Daily, Jan. 8, 2016 an d CANSIM table 282-0087

   0   0   0   s    (   s   e   a   s   o   n   a    l    l   y   a    d   j   u   s   t   e    d    )

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec'12 Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15

Alberta Housing Starts

   0   0   0   s ,

   a    l    l   a   r   e   a   s ,

   S .   A .   A .   R .

Source : CMHC, Jan. 11, 2016 and Statistics Canada CANSIM table 027-0054

ave: 201440,539 ave: 2015

37,528

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(3.0)

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15

Alberta Average Weekly Earnings % Change

   a   n   n   u   a    l   %    c

    h   a   n   g   e

Source: St atistics Canada, The Daily, Dec.2 2, 2015 and CANSIM table 281-0063

12-month

ave:0.9%

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15

Alberta Retail Sales

    $    b   i    l    l   i   o   n   s    (   s   e   a   s   o   n

   a    l    l   y   a    d   j   u   s   t   e    d    )

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Dec. 23, 2015 and CANSIM table 080-0020

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4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15

Alberta Wholesale Trade

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Dec. 18, 2015 and CANSIM table 081-001 1

    $     b

   i    l    l   i   o   n   s    (   s   e   a   s   o   n   a    l    l   y   a    d   j   u   s   t   e    d    )

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Oct'13 Oct'14 Oct'15

Alberta Manufacturing Shipments

    $

   b   i   l   l   i   o   n   s   (   s   e   a   s   o   n   a   l   l   y   a   d   j   u   s   t   e   d   )

Source : Statistics Canada, The Daily, Dec. 15, 20 15, and CANSIM table 304-0015

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q3'08 Q3'09 Q3'10 Q3'11 Q3'12 Q3'13 Q3'14 Q3'15

Net Interprovincial Migration to/from Alberta

   n   e   t   i   n   t   e   r   p   r   o   v .   m   i   g   r   a   n   t   s

Source: St atisticsCa nada, The Daily, Dec. 16, 2015 and CANSIM table 051-0017

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