AHS Hotel Market Outlook Q1 2012 Summary
17
AHS © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Hotel Market Outlook Australian Key cities Q1 2012
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AHS Advisory presents our forecasts for hotel occupancy, average rate and RevPAR movements in Australia for the next three years
Transcript of AHS Hotel Market Outlook Q1 2012 Summary
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Hotel Market Outlook
Australian Key cities
Q1 2012
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
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Residents Departing Tourists Arriving Net Tourist Exchange
International Arrivals and Departures
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$20
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50.0%
52.0%
54.0%
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
All Australia – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
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$200
$225
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68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Sydney Inner – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
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66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Melbourne Inner/Sbnk/Dlds– Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
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60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
82.5%
85.0%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Brisbane City – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
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52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Gold Coast – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$15
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$135
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$195
$210
40.0%
42.5%
45.0%
47.5%
50.0%
52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
TNQ – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Adelaide City – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
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55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend RHS)
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Perth Inner – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
$0
$25
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$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
82.5%
85.0%
87.5%
90.0%
92.5%
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Canberra – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
$0
$25
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$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
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p-9
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p-0
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0
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p-1
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
$120
$135
$150
$165
$180
$195
$210
50.0%
52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
82.5%
85.0%
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Ma
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p-0
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Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Darwin – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
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Ma
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9
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p-9
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Ma
r-0
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p-0
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Ma
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Ma
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Ma
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p-0
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Se
p-0
5
Ma
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6
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p-0
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Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
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Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
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Se
p-1
0
Ma
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Se
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Ma
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Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
Comparison – Occ%
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
Ma
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Ma
r-9
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Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
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p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
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p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
Comparison – Average Room Rate Growth
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
Comparison – Average Room Rate
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Comparison – RevPAR
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Sydney
Rutger Smits Ron de Wit
[email protected] [email protected]
0414 414 513 0414 860 207
