9 April 2023

Q1 2014 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey overview

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MEOS Q1 2014 Summary

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) for the Q1 2014 is based on responses from 2,100 UK employers and asks whether they intend to increase or reduce the size of their workforce in the coming quarter

The National Employment Outlook (derived by subtracting the % employers anticipating an increase in staffing levels from those expecting a decrease) has fallen marginally to +5% from +6% last quarter.

While optimism has declined slightly, the Outlook is still firmly in positive territory and suggests a net increase in hiring in the first three months of 2014.

There has been remarkable consistency over the last five quarters – the Outlook has been respectively 6, 6, 5, 6, 5.

Finance and Business Services is the the most positive sector – yet again.

For the first time in six years, all nations and regions are in positive territory.

Large companies are the most optimistic – for the first time in three years.

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MEOS: The last five years

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-3

-6

-5

-1

1 1 1 1

2 2

3

1

0

2 2

3

6 6

5

6

5

National NEO

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Size breakdown

Companies of all sizes show positive hiring intentions. Large businesses are the most optimistic for the first time in three years – the

NEO is +15% Medium businesses positivity fell by three points to +12%. Small business

optimism rose one point to +10%. Micro businesses report a two point drop in hiring intentions.

-1

-2

+1

-3

+3

QoQ change

Large

Medium

Small

Micro

National

12

15

11

3

6

15

12

12

1

5

1Q '14 4Q '13

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Sector breakdownQoQ change

National

Business/finance services

Utilities

Transport & comms

Manufacturing

Farming, forestry, fishing

Mining & quarrying

Public & social

Wholesale, retail etc

Construction

-1

-4

-4

+3

+3

+2

-2

n/c

-4

-1-5

4

4

7

4

3

4

13

15

6

-6

0

4

5

6

6

7

9

11

5

1Q '14 4Q '13

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Public/private sector breakdown*

Private sector hiring intentions (+3%) remain stronger than public sector intentions (0%), but private sector intentions have fallen more sharply.

Optimism among not-for-profits fell further, to +1% from +5%.

-1

-5

-1

-4

QoQ change

*Data not seasonally adjusted

Not for profit

Public sector

Private sector

National

5

1

8

6

1

0

3

5

1Q '14 4Q '13

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2011 2012 2013

Public/private sector breakdown*

Public sector

Private sector

*Data is not seasonally adjusted

2014Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

3

5

3

-2

3

5 55

6 6

8

3

-7

-2-2

-6-6

0 0

-3

76

10

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Regions and nations summary

• Hiring intentions in the East of England fell by 2 points but are still top of the regional leader board at +11%.

• Yorkshire and Humberside rose 10 points from -1% in the previous quarter to +9% this time – its highest level in over three years.

• Optimism remained strong in the North East at +7%, though this represents a 3 point fall compared to the previous quarter. It holds onto its spot as the UK’s third most upbeat region.

• Fourth in the regional pecking order is the South West, where the Outlook fell marginally to +6% this quarter from +7% last time.

• The East Midlands, West Midlands, North West and South East are all on +5% this quarter. Except for the North West – where confidence has dropped sharply from +14% last quarter – all the other regions showed relatively small declines in optimism.

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Regions and nations summary continued

• Northern Ireland is also on +5%, but this represents a sharp increase from -2% in Q4, 2013 when it was the least optimistic region.

• Scotland and Wales recorded small falls in optimism. Wales fell 3 points to +1% (making it equal most pessimistic region), while Scotland dropped a single point to +2%.

• London recorded perhaps the most surprising Outlook this quarter, with optimism falling from +3% to +1%. Only six months ago the capital was one of Britain’s most upbeat regions on +11%, but employer confidence has taken a battering since then.

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Regions and nations breakdownQoQ change

Total

East

Yorks & Humberside

North East

South West

Northern Ireland

West Midlands

South East

North West

East Midlands

Scotland

Wales

London

-1

-2

+10

-3

-1

+7

-1

+1

-9

-1

-2

-3

-23

4

3

6

14

7

6

-2

7

10

-1

13

6

1

1

2

5

5

5

5

5

6

7

9

11

5

1Q '14 4Q '13

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UK employment intention heat map

+1

+2

+7+5

+5+9

+1 +5+5

+5+6

+11

+13

Outlook

-10>

-9 to -10

-7 to -8

-5 to -6

-3 to -4

-1 to -2

0

1 to 2

3 to 4

5 to 6

7 to 8

9 to 10

10<