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Air Force Weather Agency

AFWA Data Assimilation Efforts

related to JCSDA

Maj Lee ByerleHQ AFWA/A8T

2 May 07

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Overview

Background

Motivation

Current Data Assimilation Approach

Recent Collaboration

AFWA DA Priorities

Follow-on Actions

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Background

To address COPC AI 2006.2.9, “AFWA will assess the direction of data assimilation (DA) development at NCAR as it relates to development at JCSDA and take steps to converge the efforts.”

To advocate community partnerships that leverage the entire R&D community for tech transition to operations

Vision: Foster a community DA approach

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Motivation

Establish data assimilation (DA) program which: Delivers optimum required capability to the warfighter

addressing specific deficiencies Land/Sfc Interactions Clouds Dust Transport

Promotes national unity of effort between operational modeling centers

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AFWADA Course of Action

Continue community DA approach through AFWA investment in NCAR Maximize leverage through increased NCAR and JCSDA

collaboration and integration work

Enables AFWA to: Execute 5-year DA plan: NPOESS prep, next-gen DA Work closely with NCEP/JCSDA to add radiance data

sets to existing systems Work with NASA to add ESMF-compliant land-surface

model

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NCAR and JCSDA scientists collaborated on WRFVAR (Dec 06); incorporated JCSDA-derived: Community Radiative Transfer Model AMSU-A/B bias-correction algorithms Radiance data thinning algorithms

NCAR connecting DTC with JCSDA efforts Evaluating hybrid DA techniques (Dr. Barker)

Collaborating with NCEP & NASA on land surface modeling (LSM) DA issues Plan to merge radiance assimilation into LSM for WRF

Recent Collaboration

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Radiance Data Assimilation in WRFVAR to improve characterization for Warfighters Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) (FY07)

NCAR leverage JCSDA Improved characterization—100x increase in vertical resolution

Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) (FY07/08) NCAR leverage JCSDA Fills voids, characterizes ocean surfaces better

Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) (FY08) NCAR leverage JCSDA Improved vertical moisture/temperature characterization—over

land, through clouds

AFWA DA Priorities

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European Space Agency’s MetOp (FY08/09) NCAR Improved vertical moisture/temperature characterization—over

land, through clouds Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) (FY09/10)

NCAR collaborate with JCSDA Characterization of cloud optical properties to improve cloud

model forecasts Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) (FY10/11)

NCAR collaborate with JCSDA Characterization of cloud optical properties to improve cloud

model forecasts Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)

(FY11/12) NCAR collaborate with JCSDA Characterization of cloud optical properties to improve cloud

model forecasts

AFWA DA Priorities

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Hybrid Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter/ 3-D Variational (EtKF/3DVar) DA Technique Improved initial conditions Cheaper (fewer CPUs) than 4D-VAR

Investigate cloudy radiance assimilation w/NPOESS data Improved CFLOS/representation of clouds in

models

AFWA DA Priorities

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AFWA Statements of Work will require NCAR to exploit/reuse JCSDA research/completed DA techniques when possible

Improve two-way communication between JCSDA and AFWA Codify AFW representation at JCSDA

Request JCSDA increase scope to COAMPS and WRF modeling systems

Follow-on Actions

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Questions?