11 th JCSDA Science Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation
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11th JCSDA Science Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation
Latest Developments on the Assimilation of Cloud-Affected Satellite Observations
Tom AulignéNational Center for Atmospheric Research
Acknowledgments: Gael Descombes, Greg Thompson, Francois Vandenberghe, Dongmei Xu (NCAR)Thomas Nehrkorn, Brian Woods (AER)Funding provided by the Air Force Weather Agency
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Introduction
Approaches for the use of cloud-affected radiances
• Nowcasting• COP + advection• 3D cloud fraction + WRF dynamical transport
• Oklahoma U. / GSI-RR cloud analysis
• Expansion of analysis control variable• Total water + linearized physics• Microphysical variables
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Introduction
Approaches for the use of cloud-affected radiances in NWP
• Nowcasting• COP + advection• 3D cloud fraction + WRF dynamical transport
• Oklahoma U. / GSI-RR cloud analysis
• Expansion of analysis control variable• Total water + linearized physics• Microphysical variables (WRF Data Assimilation)
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Outline
• Control Variable Transform• Multivariate Background Error
Covariances• Hybrid Ensemble/Variational• Displacement Analysis
• Processing of Cloudy Satellite Observations
• Experimental Demonstration
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Outline
• Control Variable Transform• Multivariate Background Error
Covariances• Hybrid Ensemble/Variational• Displacement Analysis
• Processing of Cloudy Satellite Observations
• Experimental Demonstration
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Pseudo Single Observation Test (PSOT)
• Multivariate covariances for qc, qr, qi, qsn• Binning option: dynamical cloud mask• Vertical and Horizontal autocorrelations via Recursive Filters• 3D Variance 6
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Outline
• Control Variable Transform• Multivariate Background Error
Covariances• Hybrid Ensemble/Variational• Displacement Analysis
• Processing of Cloudy Satellite Observations
• Experimental Demonstration
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NEW ALGORITHM: update of the ensemble perturbations inside the Variational analysis
through Lanczos minimization(without external EnKF)
Ensemble covariance included in 3D/4DVar through state augmentation(Lorenc 2003, Wang et al. 2008, Fairbairn et al., 2012)
Ensemble/Variational Integrated Localized (EVIL)
with
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Outline
• Control Variable Transform• Multivariate Background Error
Covariances• Hybrid Ensemble/Variational• Displacement Analysis
• Processing of Cloudy Satellite Observations
• Experimental Demonstration
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ForecastCalibration &Alignment
Hurricane Katrina OSSE
Synthetic observations(TCPW)
Balanced displacement
Nehrkorn et al., MWR 2013 (submitted) 10
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Outline
• Control Variable Transform• Multivariate Background Error
Covariances• Hybrid Ensemble/Variational• Displacement Analysis
• Processing of Cloudy Satellite Observations
• Experimental Demonstration
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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Observation
Background
Radiance(GOES imgrchannel 4)
• AIRS, IASI, AMSU-A, AMSU-B, MHS, HIRS, SSMI/S BUFR files from NCEP
• MODIS HDF files (Terra & Aqua) from NASA
• GOES Sndr ASCII files (E & W) from Uwisc.
• GOES Imgr NetCDF files from NCAR/RAL
Cloud-Affected Radiances
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Observation
Background
Log10(COD)(GOES imgr)
• GOES Imgr NetCDF files from Uwisc.• MODIS NetCDF files from AFWA
with (Benedetti and Janiskova, MWR 2008)
€
Log10(COD)
€
rlog = log10(1+ε r2)
Cloud Optical Properties
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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Huber Norm: robust observation errors
Figure from Fisher (2008)
Innovations
Normalized Obs Weight
Distribution of innovations18
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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Satellite Field of View (FoV) interpolation
• Calculate polygons (ellipses)
• List model grid points inside ellipse
• Use average input for CRTM• Currently testing for AIRS and IASI
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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• Unified processing for Radiances and COP Retrievals
• VarBC: Variational Bias Correction (unchanged predictors)
• Revisited QC: extended Gross and First-Guess check
(to conserve cloudy data)• Huber Norm: robust definition of
observation error• Land Surface: Tskin introduced as a sink variable• Field of View: advanced interpolation scheme• CRTM Jacobians: rescaled base state
(floor and ceiling values for cloud parameters)
• Middle Loop: Multiple re-linearizations of obs. operator
Unified Processing of Cloud-affected Satellite data
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Cost Function
First Guess Second Guess Third Guess
First Analysis Second Analysis
AIRS Window Channel #787
3DVar Middle loop
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First Guess Second Guess Third Guess
Observation
Update of qcloud, qice in WRF
ObservationsAIRS Window Channel #78725
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Outline
• Control Variable Transform• Multivariate Background Error
Covariances• Hybrid Ensemble/Variational• Displacement Analysis
• Processing of Cloudy Satellite Observations
• Experimental Demonstration
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WRF-ARW model, CONUS 15km, Thompson microphysicsFirst Guess = Mean of 50-memb ens. from EnKF expt
(Romine)
Single analysis at 20012/06/03 (12UTC), 5 middle-loops
GOES-Imager: Radiances (Thompson) & COD (Uwisc.)
• CTRL no DA • COD Cloud Optical Depth (3DVar)• FCA Cloud Optical Depth
(Displacement)• 3DVAR Radiances (3DVar)• EVIL Radiances (Hybrid)
Experimental Framework
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Incremental fit to obs
Cloud Optical Depth
3DVar
EVILRadiances
Obs
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qcloud
Level 10
Analysisincrements
COD FCA
3DVAR EVIL
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qcloud
Level 10
Analysisincrements
COD FCA
3DVAR EVIL
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0.12°0.25°0.5°
1° 2° 3°
Multi-scaleverification
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Multi-scale verification
Analysis Forecast
EVIL3DVARCTRL
Impact of all-sky radiances on forecast up to 3-4h Best forecast with EVIL system
EVIL3DVARCTRL
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Conclusion
• Expansion of analysis vector to clouds• Multivariate, flow-dependent background errors
• Displacement pre-processing• Updated processing of cloud-affected satellite data (bias correction, QC, interpolation, RTM, middle-loop)
• Sustained impact in short-term forecast
• More work required…
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