Addressing Critical Skills Issues at the Addressing Critical Skills Issues at the NWS Climate Prediction Center: NWS Climate Prediction Center:

Agrometeorology Agrometeorology

Douglas Le ComteDouglas Le Comte

OFCM WorkshopOFCM Workshop

23 September 200923 September 2009

Introduction to CPCIntroduction to CPCCPC Mission and VisionCPC Mission and Vision

VisionVision

• To be the world’s best and most trusted To be the world’s best and most trusted climate service center, using partnerships climate service center, using partnerships to develop cutting-edge climate products.to develop cutting-edge climate products.

MissionMission

• We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the and property and the enhancement of the economy.economy.

Operations and Development BranchesOperations and Development BranchesOPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES:OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES:

1.1. Prepare long-range outlooks from one week to one year; improve forecasts; verify Prepare long-range outlooks from one week to one year; improve forecasts; verify forecasts.forecasts.

2.2. Stratospheric monitoring; UV forecastsStratospheric monitoring; UV forecasts

3.3. Disseminate global data for monitoringDisseminate global data for monitoring

4.4. Operate with USDA the Joint Agricultural Weather FacilityOperate with USDA the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

5.5. Produce assessments for the USAID Famine Early Warning SystemProduce assessments for the USAID Famine Early Warning System

DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES:DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES:

1.1. Perform applied researchPerform applied research

2.2. Monitor the state of the ocean-atmosphere climate systemMonitor the state of the ocean-atmosphere climate system

3.3. Develop prediction techniquesDevelop prediction techniques

PredictPredict the Physical Environment “from the Sun to the Sea”the Physical Environment “from the Sun to the Sea”

NWS and USDA Responsibilities at NWS and USDA Responsibilities at JAWFJAWF

:

NWS meteorologists provide globalweather data, products, and expertise in interpretation of forecast models.

USDA agricultural meteorologistsmerge the NWS information with climatological analyses and global agronomic data to arrive at the weather impact on agricultural production.

The FEWS ProjectThe FEWS Project

Produce weekly hazards assessments for Africa, Central America/Hispaniola, and Afghanistan

Designed to provide a “heads up” on conditions that could lead to food shortages

Critical Skills Needed for Agricultural Critical Skills Needed for Agricultural Weather MonitoringWeather Monitoring

• Knowledge of ClimateKnowledge of Climate

• Normal precipitation in crop areasNormal precipitation in crop areas

• Normal temperatures in crop areasNormal temperatures in crop areas

• Knowledge of climate extremesKnowledge of climate extremes

• Knowledge of AgricultureKnowledge of Agriculture

• What are the crops and where are they grown?What are the crops and where are they grown?

• Agronomic information: soil types, insects/diseases Agronomic information: soil types, insects/diseases

• Crop calendars: planting, pollination, growth stages, harvestingCrop calendars: planting, pollination, growth stages, harvesting

• Livestock vulnerabilities (heat, cold, snow)Livestock vulnerabilities (heat, cold, snow)

• Knowledge of DataKnowledge of Data

• What data is available and how quickly?What data is available and how quickly?

• How good is it?How good is it?

• How can I get more pertinent data and information?How can I get more pertinent data and information?

• Knowledge of Forecasting (Models: short term and long range)Knowledge of Forecasting (Models: short term and long range)

• CommunicationCommunication

• Ability to create maps and graphsAbility to create maps and graphs

• Verbal and written skills, use of the InternetVerbal and written skills, use of the Internet

Skill Gaps and ShortagesSkill Gaps and Shortages

• Most new meteorologists have little to no experience or Most new meteorologists have little to no experience or knowledge of agricultural meteorologyknowledge of agricultural meteorology

- - Few universities have meteorology/agriculture departments that Few universities have meteorology/agriculture departments that teach thisteach this

- Workers usually come from jobs not related to agriculture- Workers usually come from jobs not related to agriculture

Mission ImpactsMission Impacts

Minimal ImpactsMinimal Impacts

• Workers readily pick up required knowledge from co-workers Workers readily pick up required knowledge from co-workers and reference documents and reference documents

• Lack of knowledge and experience increases the time needed Lack of knowledge and experience increases the time needed to train new workersto train new workers

• USDA has a greater need for workers with degrees and USDA has a greater need for workers with degrees and experience in agmet to fulfill their missionexperience in agmet to fulfill their mission

Addressing ShortagesAddressing Shortages

Universities usually do not provide sufficient Universities usually do not provide sufficient practical training and experiencepractical training and experience

SoSo

• CPC and USDA provide informal on-the-job trainingCPC and USDA provide informal on-the-job training

• Retention at JAWF has been a problem: USDA is seen to Retention at JAWF has been a problem: USDA is seen to provide more career enhancement opportunities than NWS/CPCprovide more career enhancement opportunities than NWS/CPC

• With recent changes at JAWF (on-site NWS personnel removed), With recent changes at JAWF (on-site NWS personnel removed), the retention problem may not be as much of an issuethe retention problem may not be as much of an issue

• Similar retention problem with contractors working on the FEWS Similar retention problem with contractors working on the FEWS project—they seek more stability and opportunityproject—they seek more stability and opportunity

• ““Virtualization” of CPC JAWF activities takes advantage of Virtualization” of CPC JAWF activities takes advantage of efficiencies in software and communicationsefficiencies in software and communications

RecommendationsRecommendations

• Consider developing WEBINAR and COMET training in Consider developing WEBINAR and COMET training in agricultural meteorology and climatologyagricultural meteorology and climatology

• Support mentoring for new workers so that experienced Support mentoring for new workers so that experienced workers can impart their knowledge to new recruitsworkers can impart their knowledge to new recruits

• More collaboration between NWS and USDA and agricultural More collaboration between NWS and USDA and agricultural users (seminars, meetings, joint projects, data/product users (seminars, meetings, joint projects, data/product exchange, etc.)exchange, etc.)

• Enhance prediction capabilities at all time scalesEnhance prediction capabilities at all time scales