7/27/2019 AAF Battleground Survey on Continuing Resolution & Obamacare

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Memorandum

To: Doug Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum

From: Wes Anderson

Date: September 30, 2013

Re: Battleground SurveyThe CR Fight & Obamacare

METHODOLOGY

The following survey was commissioned by American Action Forum and conducted by OnMessage Inc.

within 18 congressional districts. Telephone interviews were conducted September 25-26, 2013. This

survey consists of 1,200 likely voters. Interviews were stratified by previous election results to reflect

historic voter trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.82%.

We recently came out of the field with a survey for American Action Forum of 18 congressional districts

across the United States. These districts were broken into three groups to gain an understanding of the

views of different parts of the population. The groupings were as follows: conservative districts (PVI

from R+6 to R+10), districts held by Republicans where Romney garnered less than 47% (R in D seats-

PVI from D+1 to D+3), and pure swing districts (PVI from D+1 to R+1).

Key Findings

A strong majority of voters in the battle ground now oppose Obamacare. More importantly, a majority of

voters in the swing districts and 60% of Independents now oppose Obamacare.

Based on everything that you have seen, read and heard, do you favor or oppose President Obamas health care law,also known as Obamacare? (IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK: And would you say you strongly favor/oppose or just

somewhat favor/oppose?)

36% TOTAL FAVOR

22% Strongly Favor14% Somewhat Favor

57% TOTAL OPPOSE

46% Strongly Oppose10% Somewhat Oppose

7% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ)

GOP I nd Dem Con Di st GOP in D Swing

Total Favor 6 33 74 27 39 44Total Oppose 90 60 17 66 54 50

7/27/2019 AAF Battleground Survey on Continuing Resolution & Obamacare

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Fifty-five percent of respondents say they would favor Republican efforts to delay the individual mandateby one year through the Continuing Resolution. Again, the strength of this effort is broad, with 52% of

the voters in swing districts favoring the one year delay in the individual mandate.

As you may know, the Obama Administration has delayed for one year the provision in Obamacare that mandates that

companies provide healthcare for their employees. However, the Obama Administration has not delayed the individualmandate that requires all adults to buy health insurance or pay a penalty. Some Republican Congressmen want to

include a provision in the government funding bill to delay the Obamacare individual mandate for one year. Do youfavor or oppose Republican efforts to use the funding bill to delay the Obamacare individual mandate? (IFFAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK: And would you say you strongly favor/oppose or just somewhat favor/oppose?)

55% TOTAL FAVOR

38% Strongly Favor17% Somewhat Favor

35% TOTAL OPPOSE

24% Strongly Oppose11% Somewhat Oppose

10% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ)

GOP I nd Dem Con Di st GOP in D Swing

Total Favor 81 56 26 62 51 52Total Oppose 11 31 67 28 37 40

When asked about the appropriateness of negotiating spending in reference to the CR, voters side with

Republicans by a five point margin. This question certainly polarizes along party lines. That said, it

should be noted that the question remains very close in both the GOP in D and Swing districts.

Thinking about the bill to fund the government and keep it from shutting down, which of the following statements comesclosest to your opinion?(ROTATE)

43% Republican leaders in the House say its right to use every opportunity Congress has to defund or delayObamacare and Democrats are the ones threatening to shut down the government because they refuse any

negotiations over delaying or fixing Obamacare.38% Democrat leaders in the Senate say Republicans should pass a clean funding bill instead of threatening to

shut down the government over funding Obamacare, which would delay checks to seniors, veterans andactive military personnel.

4% Both (DO NOT READ)

7% Neither (DO NOT READ)9% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ)

GOP I nd Dem Con Di st GOP in D Swing

Republicans say 73 39 13 48 43 37

Democrats say 11 34 72 32 41 42

Conclusion

While the potential of a government shutdown is likely to consume much of the news this week its

important to remember that Obamacare continues to become less popular by the day. In addition, a strongmajority of the voters in the battleground favor a one year delay of the individual mandate. Clearly mostvoters see such a delay as nothing more than common sense given the fact that the Administration hasalready delayed the corporate mandate.

Wes Anderson is a leading GOP pollster with 20 years of experience in opinion research. As a founding partner, Wes now leads the polling

divisions of OnMessage Inc. and OnMessage Sports, providing political and corporate clients with a full spectrum of quantitative and qualitative

opinion research products. You can read more about Wes Anderson at onmessageinc.com.