A Study on Impacts of Implementing Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day on Structure of Thai Economy

7/23/2019 A Study on Impacts of Implementing Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day on Structure of Thai Economy

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23 2554 1.8.2.

300 15,000 () (.)

(Steering Committee) 3

2555


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10 ()

300 2 1 ..2555 1 .. 2556 80 .. 2558

(1) () 300

(2) 3.2 30 8-10 0.6 (3)

(1) (2) (3) 1 (4) (5) 1,000 (6) ( InformalSector) (7) ( 8-10) 1.7

1. 2 300 ..2558

() 2. 300 18

.. 2556 52 .. 2557 ()


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300 15,000

2

3. 300 70 .. 2558 ( 300 ) 300

()

4.

5. .. 2555 10 .. 2558

.. 2556 300 70 () 1

6.

()

/

.. 2555-2556

15,000

15,000 .. 2556 .. 2557


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3

1) 7,791 100-2,700 100-3,320 .. 2556

2) 24,000 3.5 10

3) . 24 .. 2555 25 .. 2556

4) . .

5) . ( ) . ( 100,000- 150,000 )

1) (top up) . .

2) (performance-based payment)

3) 10,000 () 300,000 5


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Abstract

A Study on Impacts of Implementing Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day on Structure of

Thai Economy

Facts: the study found that the minimum wage has raised incongruently as far as the cost

of living together with labor productivity is concerned for a past decade. As a consequent, this

causes an economic status of all the labor forces to go down, risking them to the poverty anddebts. Take improper condition in the past 10 years; it is unable to keep up with the rising cost

of living. Furthermore, it is inconsistent with the increasing of labor productivity.

The implementing implementation on the policy of 300-baht daily minimum wage

increase took effect across Thailand on Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day policy, in

which was implemented on 1st April 2012 and the other round will be implemented on 1stJanuary 2013; is an 80-percentage point increase of the current minimum wage. This policy will

be continued untilminimum 300 Baht income per day will be implemented until the end of2015. The implementing the policy concerning the minimum 300 Baht income per day has an

impact in a wide range of Thai society. The Pros and Cons of this policy are as follows: can be

concluded as following;

Positive Pros (1) this policy does help all the labors nationwide to earn more income bygetting minimum wages up to 300 Baht a day. On one hand, higher income assists the labors to

improve their living status to be able to spend more money to stipulate the market. On the other

hand, the Revenue Department can collect more tax which, in turn, driving a country to have a

good economic. The labors in Thailand labor market have higher income from theimplementing of Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day policy. This policy helps improving the

economic status of these labors. There is the higher cash-inflow in the market and the

government is able to more tax revenue. Consequently, it leads to the better nationals economicstatus; (2) Approximately 3.2 million labors get the benefit of this policy, accounting for the

beneficiaries from this policy are approximately 3.2 million persons or it accounts for 30 per cent

of employees in private sector. The study points out that 8 10 percentage of labor productivityand the capability in manufacturing helps the expansion of Thailands economy around 0.6 per

cent; (3) the new minimum 300 Baht income per day helps to reduce social reconciliation,

especially low-income group and the labor from less bargaining power group.

Negative Cons (1) the minimum 300 Baht income per day will increase the cost of

production, particularly those labor-intensive industries, e.g. textiles, garment, sale andwholesale, rubber and plastic, and etc.; (2) the entrepreneurs need to take higher responsibility to

the additional over-time payment and provident fund of their employees; (3) the minimum 300

Baht income per day might cause a 1 percent increase in inflation rate in regards to a normalsituation. The study found that this policy led to a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation

rate; (4) this policy might reduce capability of Thailand to compete with other countries the

others because of the higher production cost; (5) the manufacturers are responsible for a dailyincrease in the production cost, around 1,000 million baht per day the employers have to


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responsibility for the increase of cost of productions, which is around 1,000 million Baht per

day; (6) there is the decrease of employment in SMEs sector and there is the increase of informalsector. The disguised unemployment will increase continually; (7) the Gross Product might

reduce more than 1.7 per cent if the entrepreneurs are unable to increase the labor productivity

and the capability in manufacturing.

Recommendations

1. The increase of minimum wage income per day twice until it is 300 baht in everyprovince and the policy not to increase this minimum wage income per day until 2015

may cause a reduction on the purchasing power of the labors to the reducing of

buying capability of labor. Thus, the government should at least adjust the cost ofliving in the year that there will not be the increase of minimum wage in every

province.

2. The government should reduce the burden of the entrepreneurs by initiate this policyin 18 provinces within 2013 and the other 52 province within 2014. Additionally, the

government should at least adjust the cost of living in the year that there will not be

the increase of minimum wage in every province. Or3. The government should eases relieve the burden of the entrepreneur by slowing down

the increase of minimum 300 Baht income per day in 70 provinces until 2015. The

provinces, which do not receive this rate in the first round, will receive the living costuntil 2015.

4. The government realizes on the impacts that might affect have impact towards theSMEs. Thus the government has support the financial policy and the tax revenue. The

government is required to increase the monitoring and evaluation of this project toensure that this can help all people.

5. The Ministry of Labor has the policies to reduce the impact that might happen to theemployers and employees. In 2012, there are 10 policies and these should beimplemented until 2015. Additionally, these are also importance for 2013 when the

government implements this policy in 70 provinces. The implementation of these

policies will have high impact. The government needs the monitoring and evaluationtowards the implementation.

6. The policies concerning to the consumption prices are necessary. The governmentshould monitor the entrepreneurs, who may leave push the burden to the consumer.

This is easier than increase labor productivity and the capability in producing.

Briefly, the implementing of Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day creates many changes,

especially the wages. This policy may suitable for the current situation, which Thailands labor

market is now facing the shortage of labor (labor-intensive sector). The high minimum wage

forces the entrepreneurs, especially SMEs to improve their capability and labor productivity.

Some entrepreneurs reduce and slow down the employment. Additionally, they increase thedependency on technology. The Ministry of Labor and stakeholders need to work in corporation

with the entrepreneurs, who need to improve their capability or lacking of labor. Furthermore,they needs to develop skill and increase capability in consistent with the demand of labor market

and reduce the unemployment rate. The Ministry of Labor needs to help fulfill out the

unemployed labor during the period between 2012 2013.

A Study on Impacts of Implementing Minimum 15,000 Salary per Month Policies on Structure

of Thai Economy


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Facts: This policy aims at increase the salary of the new government officials. The

principles of this policy are reducing the difference of the salary and creating the justice forgovernment officials, who receive the salary less than 15,000 Baht. This policy will guarantee

that the compensation for the government officials, who receive the salary less than 15,000 Baht,

will not be less than new government officials and the government officials who receive less

than salary. At first, this policy will be initiated in 2013; however it is postponed to January2014.

Impacts

1. The budget of the government will be increase from this policy. The increase of thebudget is about 7,791 million baht. In the first year, the salary of the government willincrease around 100 2,700 Baht per month and will increase up to 100 3,320 Baht

per month in 2013.

2. The government needs to prepare for the retirement pension fund. Nowadays, it isabout 24,000 Baht per Month. Within 10 years, it is estimated that there will be the

retirement around 3.5 thousand persons.

3. The contribution of the government to the Government Pension Fund will be increaseto 24 percent in 2012 and 25 percent in 2013.

4. This policy helps reduce the gap of income between government officials andemployees in private sector. Nowadays, the income of the government officials, whograduated Bachelor Degree, is less than employees in private sector. Thus, it rarely

finds out the people who graduate higher than Bachelor degree in government sector.

5. This policy might cause to the shortage of labor in semi-skilled because this canmotivate people to gain higher degree. In contrary, Thailand will face with theunemployment of labors, who graduated bachelor degree, which has around 100,000

150,000 persons nowadays.

Recommendations

1. The government should focus on competency based of each government by payingthe top up rather than increase the salary because it has an impact to all level of

government officials. Additionally, it will be the long-terms government budget. This

policy is improper nowadays because Thailand is now facing the high unemployment

for the labor who graduated bachelor degree.2. The increase of compensation of the government should be tighten with the

performance-based payment.

The government should motivate private sector to employ labor from vocational education at

10,000 baht per month because Thailands labor market needs semi-skilled (including secondaryeducation) at least 300,000 persons in the next 5 years.


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i

1

1.1 1-11.2 1-21.3 1-21.4 1-21.5 1-3

1.6 1-3

2 300 15,000 2.1 2-12.2 2-42.3 300 2-102.4 15,000 2-28

2-1

3 300 15,000 3.1 3-13.2 3-13.3 3-23.4 3-63.5 (Conjecture) 3-143.6 3-15

4 4.1 4-24.2 4-114.3 4-16

4-1


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ii

5 15,000

5.1 5-25.2 5-75.3 15,000 5-9

5-1 15,000

6 6.1 300 6-16.2 15,000 6-66.3 300 6-8

6-1 300

6-2 1 6-3 2 6-4 3


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iii

2.1 Mean Median 2-4

2.2

2-5

2.3 .. 2534-2553 2-7 2.4 2-8 2.5

2-9

2.6 300 2-12 2.7

1 .. 25552-13

2.8 300 / : 2-22 2.9 300 2-23 2.10 (

) .. 2556 300 2-23

2.11 2-30 2.12 15,000 2-33 2.13 2-34 2.14 2-35 3.1 3-8

3.2 3-9 3.3 3-9 3.4 3-10 4.1 .. 2553 4-3 4.2

.. 25534-5

5.1 5-6 5.2 5-6 5.3 5-6

5.4 : 5-9 5.5 .. 2554 .. 2556 5-10 5.6 .. 2554 5-10 5.7 .. 2554 5-11 5.8 .. 2554 5-11 5.9 50-60

.. 25545-12


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iv

5.10 . 5-12 6.1 2 2

6-10

6.2 300 .. 2558 6-11


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v

2.1 Mean Median 2-5

2.2 2-8 2.3 2-10 2.4 2-19 2.5 300 2-20 2.6 2-21 2.7 2-31 3.1 (Real Minimum Wage) 3-2 3.2 GDP 3-3 3.3 3-3

3.4 () 3-4 3.5 30 3-10 3.6 3-11 3.7 : Vulnerable Sectors 3-12 3.8 : Secured Sectors 3-12 3.9 : Vulnerable Sectors 3-13 3.10 : Secured Sectors 3-13 3.11 3-14 4.1 .. 2529-2553 4-2

4.2 .. 2530-2553 4-4 4.3 Kernel Density Distribution Log Log .. 2539

4-7

4.4 Kernel Density Distribution Log Log .. 2553

4-8

4.5 .. 2529-2553 4-9 4.6 ( .. 2552) ..

2528-25534-9

4.7 .. 2529-2553 4-10

4.8 .. 2529-2553 4-10 4.9 Quantile

() OLS4-16

4.10 Quantile () InstrumentalVariable

4-16


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vi

4.11 Quantile

() OLS4-17

4.12 Quantile () InstrumentalVariable (Preferred Specification)

4-17

4.13 ()

4-18

5.1 5-1 5.2

5-2

5.3 5-3 5.4 5-3 5.5 5-4 5.6

5-4

5.7 5-5


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1

..

1.1

23 .. 2554

1.8.2. 300 15,000 1

(Domestic Consumption Expenditure)

300

() 1.8.2 300 15,000 2 /

1 23 .. 2554 8


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300 15,000

1-2

(.)

.

1.2

1.2.1 300

1.2.2 15,000

1.2.3

1.3

1.3.1 300 15,000

1.3.2 ()

1.3.3

1.4 3

10-12

1.4.1 300 40-80

1.4.2 15,000


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1

1-3

1.5 3

3

1.5.1

1.5.2

1.5.3 1.5.1 1.5.2 300 11.5.4 1.5.1 1.5.2

15,000 2

1.5.5 1.5.1 1.5.4 2

1.5.6 2

1.5.7 1 1.6

1.6.1 300

300 300

300

300 /

15,000

15,000


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300 15,000

1-4

300 2

1.6.2 15,000

Lifetime Income


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2 300

15,000 ..

300 175.8

(Big Push) 300 15,000

2.1 .. 2541 5

(International Labour Organization ILO)

(Poverty Safety Net) (Fair Wage) ( ,2554)


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300 15,000

2-2

(Minimum Wage) ( , 2554)

103 (

) 16 .. 2515 2 (4) ()

14 .. 2516

( , 2554 23) 16 .. 2516 17 .. 2516

2516 12 312 4 100,000

13 .. 2517 6 1 .. 2520

.. 2517-2526 1 () 1 1 ()

1 1

2540 (IMF) 14 .. 2540


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2 300 15,000

2-3

" " (Asian DevelopmentBank: ADB) .. 2541

3 ( .. 2541-31 2543) ( , 2554)

.. 2541 .. 2541 103

6 .. 2541 3 ( 3) .. 2551

2.1 .. 2541 87

87 .. 2541

87

.. 2544 ( , 2554) 3 1 5 2 3 63 32 221 215 159 ( , 2554 14)


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300 15,000

2-4

2.2

2.2.1

(Minimum Wage) .. 2544 / 4.9 43.1 10 4.3 12.5

( 2.1)

2.1 Mean Median

(Min wage)

(Mean)

(Median)

Min wage Mean

Min wage Median

2544 4,980,776 6,574,351 43.1 136.7 253.1 150.0 54.0 91.22545 4,896,783 6,710,452 42.2 137.0 220.3 153.9 62.2 89.0

2546 5,004,736 7,305,454 40.7 138.3 230.1 153.9 60.1 89.92547 5,448,484 7,745,134 41.3 139.7 236.2 153.9 59.1 90.82548 5,316,229 8,348,276 38.9 145.6 258.7 164.6 56.3 88.42549 4,569,956 8,906,565 33.9 149.4 261.4 178.9 57.1 83.52550 5,038,712 8,514,696 37.2 154.0 277.6 191.0 55.5 80.62551 4,763,745 9,061,832 34.5 159.0 269.7 192.3 58.9 82.72552 4,788,132 9,026,892 34.7 162.1 268.4 192.3 60.4 84.32553 4,430,330 9,613,376 31.5 165.3 270.6 202.9 61.1 81.52554 4,301,078 9,641,474 30.8 175.8 291.7 220.0 60.3 79.9

: 1, (2554)

9.6 199,126 13.8 50.3 23.1 75.3 28.2 72.5 11.6 58.8 ( 2.2)


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2 300 15,000

2-5

2.2

1 2

. 6 9.6-36.9 6 6 20 13.8-50.3 20 19 17 23.1-75.3 10 4 19 28.3-72.5 14 11 14 11.6-58.8 14 14

() 76 - 64 54: 1 (Mean) 2 (Median): 2-1

() 2544 55 60 .. 2554 (Median) 2 .. 2544 91 79.9 .. 2554 ( 2.1 2.1)

2.1 Mean Median

: 2-1

()

0

20

40

60

80

100

2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 2554

Mean Median


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300 15,000

2-6

4 10 6 ( 4.98 4 .30 )

(Fair Wage) 300

(2554)

1.

421

2. ( 2) .. 2551 1 (International Labour Organization: ILO)

3. ( )

(Aging Society) 12 20 25


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2 300 15,000

2-7

1 8-9

1.

2. CPI (Lagging Indicator) (Leading Indicator)

2.2.2

(Fair Wage) (Consumer Price Index: CPI) 2.3 10 .. 25442554 CPI CPI

2.3 .. 2534-2553 (% ) ( 2544-2554)

CPI () 2540-2553 2544-2553

2.46 3.73 3.73 2.31 3.48 3.19 3.06 3.69 3.50 3.33 3.70 3.42 3.03 2.95 2.66 2.84 3.25 3.01

:

2.3 3 (1) (2) (3) 3 2.2 .. 25492553 5


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300 15,000

2-8

2.2

: (), , FAQ Issue 38 30 2554;

2.4 10 1 32 276 1

2.4

1 ()1 .. 2545 0 692 .. 2546 1 441 .. 2547 8 281 .. 2548 0 01 .. 2548 1 01 .. 2549 1 401 .. 2550 0 01 .. 2551 10 191 .. 2551 0 01 .. 2553 11 31 .. 2553 0 731 .. 2554 0 0 (-) 32 276

:

1


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2 300 15,000

2-9

1.1 2.5 283 302 18 18 ( 6 ) 21 643 /

2.5

() ()1.

1.1) 8,495 2831.2) 1.1+ 9,586 3201.3) 1.2+ 11,713 390

2. 2.1) 9,048 3022.2) 11,070 369

3. 3.1) (1.12.1) -553 -183.2) (1.22.2) +538 +183.3) +643 +21

: (1) (2) 1,139,218 : , (2554)

2.2.3

Real GDP 10 10 20 70 2.3

10


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300 15,000

2-10

2.3 ( : .. 2544)

: 15-24 3 26 : 3, (2554)

2.3 300

23 .. 2554

1.8.2. 300

15,000 2

(Domestic Consumption Expenditure)

17 .. 2554 300 5 .. 2554 2

2 23 2554 8

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553

15-24 Real GDP Norminal GDP


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2 300 15,000

2-11

1. 300 2 40 7 1 .. 2555 300 1 ..2556

2. 300 4

17 .. 2554

16 .. 2554 6

40 7 300 215 221

1 .. 2555

70 300 300 ..2556 300 .. 2558

22 .. 2554

.. 2555

63-85 1 .. 2555 3-6 1 .. 2555

1. 79 221 300 35.7

2. 85 215 300 39.7

3. 70 39.5 2554


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300 15,000

2-12

4. 70 3 300 1 .. 2556 300

5. .. 2557 .. 2558 300

.. 2557 .. 25583

2.6 300

23 .. 54

300 15,000 22 .. 54

1 .. 2555 3-6 1 .. 2555

24 .. 55 300 1 2555 (7) 2556

2.3.1 300

(Multiply Inflation) (,2554)

(Foreign Direct Investment: FDI)

3 2-2 1 .. 2555


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2 300 15,000

2-13

1. 4 (.)

300 5 1.712.33 1.21-1.41

6.0-9.5 6.6-9.0 (Labour Intensive) 2,1252,936 21.71-29.99 2 465851 7.8214.32 8361,308 7.0110.98 1,8753,286 5.299.28 5881,203 3.316.78

2.7 1 .. 2555

1,210,363 1,412,381 2,125,419,057 2,936,879,887 21.71 29.99 1,707,836 2,326,301 1,875,061,784 3,286,858,487 5.29 9.28 663,514 904,582 836,049,305 1,308,836,328 7.01 10.98

602,597 953,604 588,050,536 1,203,062,573 3.31 6.78

72,910 98,899 112,776,671 183,461,918 3.39 5.51

387,980 514,473 465,392,088 851,719,270 7.82 14.32

18,563 28,533 15,457,455 41,463,214 1.66 4.45 5,174,055 6,961,187 6,752,954,330 11,079,021,305 6.19 10.15

: .

11.05-18.13 10.7-17.76 8.8715.41

9.7114.91 (Labor Intensive Industry) 3.147.67 2.094.26

4 300 15,000 35 : http://social.nesdb.go.th/


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300 15,000

2-14

.. 2554 6 3.2 29.3 257 . ( 800,000 )

. . 23

(1)

30-40 (2)

300 Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)7 GEM55

(Real GDP) 1.7 1 (Big Push)

1. 2.

3.

6 : 26 2555,

7 (Thai Labour Market, Wages. And Implications on MacroeconomicPolicies: (2555)


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2 300 15,000

2-15

4. 5.

6.

(2554) 8 300

300 15,000 4

GDP 6-6.5

1.1) 219,000 6 .57

62-65 GDP 5.5 15

3-4 200

( , 2554)

28 ( 31.52

26.10)1.2)

300 ( 2 ) 8.5 (Cost push Inflation Effect)

8 : www.fti.or.th


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300 15,000

2-16

10 (Inflation Multiplier)

FTA1.3)

300

300

1.4)

(FDI) () 5-7 0.7-0.8 ( 2.3 )

(Japanese Chamber of Commerce: JCC) (Creative Economy) 3-4 (Productive Industry)

1.5)

300 260 50-60 5.2

60-70 4.3 70 3.7 ( 1.0 ) 3.8 8.9


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2 300 15,000

2-17

2.

4.0 37.52 26.5

(...) .. 2554 300 16.9 68.5 9.0 5.60 .. 2554 ... 513 40 5

1. 10-20 300

19.70 20.54 27.33

2. 31.68 18.81 18.64 15.66 11.76 ()

3. (/) 90.29 2.91 94.06 3.24

92.54 6.21 90-94

4. (/) 98 96 95 90 89 90-98

90-92 ( ) 3-6 70 . . . 200 211 205 246 157


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300 15,000

2-18

49.7 167 250 26.34 186 235 25 161 201 19 166 147

... () ... () 12 .. 2554

() 300

1) (

)

2) 300

3) 300

4)

5)

6) 300 4 300

7) 6.3 ILO


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2 300 15,000

2-19

8)

9

. 300 1 0.16 ( 6.4) 1.03 215 300 85 ( 2,200 /) 39.5 2.4

2.4

0.4%

SME99.6%

,545,098

,

1,383,391

,983,610

10.5 77.8

SMEs I/O Table SMEs 16.2

:

25 100,000 3.3 300 6.4 2 .5

9 300 /, (.), 2555


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300 15,000

2-20

2.5 300 :

:

10 300 () 90 300

800

300 5 10 ( 1-2 2 ) 1 .. 2555 GDP 0.2-0.3 1.1-1.3 140,000

10 , . 20 2554 300

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

010203040506070

8090


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2 300 15,000

2-21

2 78.4 97.1

300 3 ( 2.6) IMD WorldEconomic Forum (WEF)

2.6 :

: 28 2554

: , http://bit.ly/HSekV6 www.nwpc.dole.go.ph

3

1

2

2.0

2.5

3.0

5.0

8.4

9.6

9.7

61.7

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0


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300 15,000

2-22

3. 300 11

300 300

3 300 1.58 ( 2-3) /

1 200 ( 30 ) 150 100

40 300 7 (/)

2.8 300 / :

(/)

(40%)

(2555)

300

(2556)

2555 2556

() 256.2 311.4 386.89 55.2 75.5 () 79,934 97,157 120,710 17,223 23,553

: 2-3

300 256.2 40 1 .. 2555 ( .. 2555) 311 55.2 / 17,223 1 300 386.89 / 75.5

( .. 2555) 23,553

12

300 / 40,776 (17,223+23,553) ( .. 2554)

11 12


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2 300 15,000

2-23

300 2 (1) 40 7 2555 (1 ) (2) 300

1 .. 2556 2.9

2.9 300

2555 ()

()

()

()

1. 7 1 2555 () 8.65 1,665.70 2,169.16 503.462. 300 1 2556 () 8.65 2,169.50 2,596.14 426.97 () - - - 930.43 () - - - 290,160

: (.) : .2-4

300

.. 2555 503.4 .. 2556 426.9 .. 2556 300 930.4 ( 2.10)

2.10 () 2556 300

() 2555 2558

503.46 426.97 930.43 55.2 75.5 130.70 558.66 502.47 1,061.13

: .2-4

4. ()

300 13 2-4 ..2554 1,278 300

13 300 5 .. 2554


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300 15,000

2-24

/

300

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)

300

14 300

3 435 5 546 1 2 3

15 .. 2555 52 36 37

35 8 20 51 37 8 7 4

14 27 .. 2555

15 26 .. 2555


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2 300 15,000

2-25

2.3.2 /

24 .. 2555 16 2 1) 2)

7,325 1. 5

1.1) (Productivity Improvement Loan) (.) 2 2

2 . 1,805

7 5 2 2

MLR-3 3 MLR 5 2

1.2) Portfolio Guarantee Scheme 4 (.) 2.4 . 18

5 2,220

1.3) Portfolio Guarantee Scheme . 2 1

. 4.8 7 3,300

1.4) 0.1 42,000 4 570

1.5)

10,000 4

2.8 8.6

16 25 2555


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300 15,000

2-26

2. 2.1)

5 30

2.2) ..2555 100

2.3) 1.5 300 1.5 300 1 .. 2555 2

1) 5 30 200,000 2) 40 (5) (6) (7) (8) 500,000

17

300 1. .. 2555 2 1.1) 1 -30 .. 2555 (6 )

5 2 3

1.2) 1 -31 .. 2555 (6 ) 5 1 4

2. Refinance

10,000 () () ()

17 http://www.thaichamber.org


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2 300 15,000

2-27

3.

232,700

3.1) 22,700 9 9 1 ( 6 )

3.2) 300 135,500

() 9 9 ()

3.3) 75,000 OTOP / () 9 9 e-commerce () (/)

4.

45 110 300 (Matching)


46/168

300 15,000

2-28

5. / IT

6. 300

300

7. 0.1 42,000 4

30 23 .. 2555 20 .. 2556 1 .. 2555 ( 11 .. 2554)

()

1.

2. PGS 43. GPS New/Start-up

4. 1.5

2.4 15,000

23 .. 2554 15,000 (..) (.) ..

20 .. 255418 (...) .. ... ( )

18 (..)


47/168

2 300 15,000

2-29

15,000 ( ) 9,000 ( ) .. .. 2555

. .

1.

2. ()

()

3. ( 15,000 . 9,000 ) 2

1 .. 2556

4.

4.1)

- 2 1 ..2555 1 .. 2556

- 2 10

4.2)

.. 2555


48/168

300 15,000

2-30

5. 1 1 .. 2555 2 1 .. 2556

..

.. ..

1.1 .. 2555 4,000 15,000 .. 2556 1.7 2 1-10 .. 2556 10 (, 24 2555)

10 .. 4 15,000 9,600 10,300 2 12,000 3 13,500 4 15,000 10 (, 24 2555)

31 .. 2555 .. 15,000 .. 4 2

2.11

1 2554(/)

1 2555(/)

1 2555(/)

. 6,410/6,800 7,620/8,080 9,000/9,900. 7,670/8,140 9,300/9,860 10,500/11,550 9,140/9,690 11,680/12,390 15,000/16,500 12,600/13,360 15,300/16,220 17,500/19,250 17,010/18,040 19,000/20,140 21,000/23,100

: 1 2555 15,000 (...) 15,000 12,285 ... 1,500 12,285 1,500 9,000

9,000 .. 2548

: (2554) (2555)


49/168

1 9,000 9,300 9,860 1 15,000

1 15,300 19,250

45 17,000

(, 31

2.7

: (2555)

(...) (, 25 2555)

2

. 7,620 8,080 9,900 . 1 2 10,500 11,680 12,390 16,500 6,220 2 17,500

2 64 12,000 2 1 2

10 2555)

15,0 9,000 .. 2548

. 24%

. 45%

. 64%

300 15,000

2

11,550 2

9,140 24

00


50/168

300 15,000

2-32

10 .. 2555 (..) . . 31 .. 2555 1 1 .. 2555 15,000 . 1.8 .. .. .. 20 .. 2555 2 2 ( 1 .. 2557) 15,000 1 ( 1 .. 2556) 13,300 . 2 11,500 1 10,200 ( . ) . 2 9,400 1 8,300 ( . .) 1 .. 2556 . 8,300 .10,200 13,300 16,400 20,000 1 .. 2557 . 9,400 . 11,500 15,000 17,500 21,000 2 1 2 10 ( 1 10 )

. 2556-2557

1 ( 1 .. 2556) 5,010 2 ( 1 .. 2557) 7,135 (.) .


51/168

2 300 15,000

2-33

20 30 137,129 .. 2556-2557 6,634

2.12 15,000

23 .. 54 300 15,000

20 .. 54 (...) .. ... ( ) .. 1

31 .. 55 .. 15,000 .. 4 2

10 .. 55 1 2557

: 15,000 9,000

2.4.1 15,000 19

(..) 15,000

. 20 .. 2554 ..

1.

1.1)

() ( 6-10 )

19 15,000


52/168

300 15,000

2-34

1.2)

1.3)

1.4) . . . .

1.5)

2.

2 1 2555 1 ..2556

1. .. 2555

(12 ) 8,000 .. 2555 ( 9

.. 2555) 6,030 5,660

2.13

() 1,145 674 1,209 1,497 128 0.87 626 379 5,666

: .. (2555)


53/168

2 300 15,000

2-35

. . 6-8 1.28 2 .. 11 ,68012,390 2 15,000-16,500 15,300-16,220 2 17,500-19,250 21,000-23,100 (, 26 2555)

1 2554 6 82

2.14 2.14

() ()

. 9,000 59,030 13,678 361,532 148 40 1,120. 10,500 157,261 18,817 591,992 542 65 2,170 15,000 871,003 31,310 755,606 5,070 156 4,390 17,500 91,527 1,616 21,148 407 15 100 21,000 664 - 1,484 2 - 11

- 1,179,485 65,421 1,731,762 6,169 276 7,791: 1, (2554)

2. (/) 15,000

300

15,000


54/168

300 15,000

2-36

3. 20 15,000

(. ) . .

4.

5.

( 500 )

20 : http://humanrevod.wordpress.com/2011/09/12/salary-effect-education/


55/168

2 300 15,000

2-37

. 2555. 26 2555.

. 2554. : . Symposium 34 . .

. 2554. 300 . 19 8 2554.

. 2554. 300 . 5, 2554.

. 2554. . FAQIssue 38, May 30, 2011.

. 2555. .. 23, 2555.

. . . 2 / 1.7 / 1.5 .. 24, 2555.

__________. . . . . 24,2555.

_________. 31 .. 1.5 ... . 26, 2555._________. 300 7 . .

27, 2555.

_________. 7 300. . 25, 2555.

. 2555. . 26, 2555.

. 2554. . :http://www.mol.go.th/employee/interesting_information/4131 22 2555.

. 2554. . :http://prachatai.com/journal/2011/09/36783 22 2555


56/168

300 15,000

2-38

. 2554. . : www.bit.ly/HsekV6 28 2554.

. 2554. 300 . : www.fti.or.th

22 2555. . : .

14 2554. :http://www.oknation.net/blog/talkwithMetha/2011/07/15/entry-1 20 2554.

. 2554. .. (23 2554) :http://www.mua.go.th/~bpp/developplan/download/news/policy-yingluk.pdf 22 2555.

. 2555. 300 :. : http://social.nesdb.go.th/ 19 2555.

. 2555. 300 /. : http://www.sme.go.th/Pages/Article/view7.aspx 18 2555.

. . 1 2555. . 31, 2555. :http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1327989389&grpid=01&catid=0305

_________. 15,000 . 12,2554 : http://humanrevod.wordpress.com/2011/09/12/salary-effect-education/ 31 2555.


57/168

2 300 15,000

2-39

2-1

2-1 Mean Median 2554

(Min

wage)

(Mean)

(Mean)

Min wage Mean

Min wage

Median

199,126 1,867,832 9.6 164.0 543.9 346.2 30.2 47.4 71,976 443,646 14.0 165.0 408.3 307.7 40.4 53.6 26,620 249,810 9.6 173.0 536.0 326.9 32.3 52.9 37,128 208,346 15.1 166.0 388.8 307.7 42.7 54.0 51,232 193,743 20.9 169.0 283.9 250.0 59.9 67.6 17,640 51,333 25.6 165.0 265.0 230.8 62.3 71.5 72,216 135,562 34.8 171.0 231.9 192.3 73.7 88.9 16,445 32,842 33.4 167.0 248.2 192.3 67.3 86.8 34,403 33,953 50.3 167.0 183.0 165.4 91.3 101.0 46,605 144,490 24.4 165.0 303.3 230.8 54.4 71.5 67,172 307,268 17.9 163.0 330.7 269.2 49.3 60.5 25,916 161,925 13.8 166.0 389.1 300.0 42.7 55.3 35,123 76,501 31.5 166.0 254.0 230.8 65.3 71.9 17,295 41,000 29.7 183.0 251.4 192.3 72.8 95.2 57,950 133,592 30.3 166.0 280.5 230.8 59.2 71.9 55,588 73,413 43.1 160.0 220.4 192.3 72.6 83.2 15,349 42,659 26.5 162.0 230.5 192.3 70.3 84.2 45,665 54,730 45.5 163.0 190.6 173.1 85.5 94.2 252,466 377,874 40.1 171.0 235.1 192.3 72.8 88.9

181,375 100,048 64.4 180.0 153.3 153.9 117.4 117.0 99,411 140,063 41.5 162.0 184.4 184.6 87.8 87.7 99,641 50,311 66.4 163.0 158.8 138.5 102.6 117.7 74,918 134,572 35.8 165.0 206.6 192.3 79.9 85.8 25,888 34,837 42.6 169.0 239.1 176.9 70.7 95.5 56,029 55,766 50.1 166.0 182.3 162.0 91.1 102.5 28,514 24,088 54.2 161.0 161.2 153.9 99.9 104.6 44,371 40,075 52.5 159.0 171.6 153.9 92.6 103.3 143,585 280,351 33.9 163.0 211.1 184.6 77.2 88.3 90,675 187,728 32.6 165.0 219.3 192.3 75.3 85.8 41,730 44,787 48.2 163.0 187.9 173.1 86.7 94.2 47,718 67,331 41.5 168.0 193.8 177.7 86.7 94.5 41,099 104,410 28.2 166.0 207.9 192.3 79.8 86.3 82,822 117,613 41.3 163.0 182.8 180.8 89.1 90.2 71,964 39,998 64.3 163.0 158.7 138.5 102.7 117.7 72,607 68,327 51.5 166.0 191.3 161.5 86.8 102.8 51,577 19,534 72.5 168.0 134.8 115.4 124.7 145.6 30,533 20,838 59.4 171.0 149.9 140.0 114.0 122.1 203,352 227,178 47.2 170.0 212.8 192.3 79.9 88.4 44,828 61,743 42.1 172.0 213.3 173.1 80.6 99.4


58/168

300 15,000

2-40

(Min

wage)

(Mean)

(Mean)

Min wage Mean

Min wage

Median

73,425 89,778 45.0 176.0 200.6 173.1 87.8 101.7 24,405 32,397 43.0 173.0 197.3 173.1 87.7 100.0

59,537 43,706 57.7 184.0 174.6 153.9 105.4 119.6 20,772 18,374 53.1 175.0 177.4 153.9 98.6 113.7 46,242 37,358 55.3 186.0 169.1 153.9 110.0 120.9 108,407 127,148 46.0 173.0 177.7 173.1 97.3 100.0 17,733 5,805 75.3 221.0 156.1 115.4 141.6 191.5 45,497 151,754 23.1 173.0 217.9 196.2 79.4 88.2 8,178 14,551 36.0 174.0 210.2 192.3 82.8 90.5 51,831 73,513 41.4 185.0 199.0 183.1 92.9 101.0 60,009 32,313 65.0 172.0 156.4 115.4 110.0 149.1 53,035 31,949 62.4 179.0 158.9 153.9 112.6 116.3 51,832 65,343 44.2 193.0 208.4 173.1 92.6 111.5 30,740 43,918 41.2 196.0 190.1 173.1 103.1 113.2 94,204 63,075 59.9 169.0 166.3 153.9 101.6 109.8 81,597 184,250 30.7 170.0 239.7 192.3 70.9 88.4 93,360 107,342 46.5 183.0 212.9 190.0 86.0 96.3 53,771 91,542 37.0 189.0 210.8 192.3 89.7 98.3 105,433 180,506 36.9 173.0 302.7 230.8 57.2 75.0 84,246 147}894 36.3 181.0 281.9 218.0 64.2 83.0 11,126 41,549 21.1 172.0 254.1 230.8 67.7 74.5 30,448 76,001 28.6 179.0 232.7 200.0 76.9 89.5 38,076 78,845 32.6 180.0 230.8 192.3 78.0 93.6 92,168 197,901 31.8 172.0 259.0 230.8 66.4 74.5 18,945 58,747 24.4 167.0 244.0 230.8 68.5 72.4

9,013 42,017 17.7 167.0 306.9 269.2 54.4 62.0 9,330 68,846 11.9 190.0 335.3 307.7 56.7 61.8 25,872 197,073 11.6 182.0 311.6 269.2 58.4 67.6 13,288 20,998 38.8 193.0 214.7 196.2 89.9 98.4 13,220 76,923 14.7 176.0 267.8 230.8 65.7 76.3 64,247 255,294 20.1 174.0 313.1 230.8 55.6 75.4 14,434 37,013 28.1 215.0 245.5 192.3 87.6 111.8 53,184 99,710 34.8 215.0 230.1 200.0 93.4 107.5 20,216 66,978 23.2 215.0 237.3 230.8 90.6 93.2 68,188 69,682 49.5 215.0 187.4 173.1 114.7 124.2 12,118 41,509 22.6 215.0 245.6 230.8 87.5 93.2 108,330 75,806 58.8 215.0 160.7 153.9 133.8 139.7: 1


59/168

2 300 15,000

2-41

2-2 1 .. 2555

300

243

273 241

269 240

265 239

264 237

259 236

258 234

257 233

255

232

254

230

252 229

251 227

250 226

246 225

244 223

222 : (2554)


60/168

300 15,000

2-42

2-3 2555 2556

:/

2555

2555

2556

2555

2555- 2556

256,190,043 311,412,828 386,894,800 55,222,785 75,481,972 85,327,220 105,314,800 105,314,800 19,987,580

62,335,935 73,684,200 84,894,700 11,348,265 11,210,500 10,560,005 11,771,850 14,270,100 1,211,845 2,498,250 9,405,060 11,212,500 12,823,600 1,807,440 1,611,100 13,316,775 15,995,550 18,175,900 2,678,775 2,180,350 3,813,515 4,384,800 5,174,300 571,285 789,500 25,240,580 30,319,500 34,450,800 5,078,920 4,131,300

47,992,657 58,034,046 85,993,300 10,041,389 27,959,254 1,652,600 2,098,850 2,829,200 446,250 730,350 229,550 269,225 431,500 39,675 162,275 1,342,804 1,617,988 2,441,000 275,184 823,012 168,020 206,170 307,700 38,150 101,530 86,722 91,078 171,200 4,356 80,122 1,770,536 2,131,688 3,132,400 361,152 1,000,712 15,393,148 19,180,624 26,261,000 3,787,476 7,080,376 6,046,307 6,921,032 11,182,900 874,725 4,261,868 1,258,178 1,498,300 2,320,200 240,122 821,900 2,768,900 3,157,500 5,317,400 388,600 2,159,900 3,442,635 4,209,855 6,017,100 767,220 1,807,245 727,028 872,180 1,321,000 145,152 448,820 497,750 592,555 938,900 94,805 346,345 782,742 847,614 1,521,600 64,872 673,986 3,426,400 4,234,735 6,169,700 808,335 1,934,965 1,997,105 2,309,860 3,721,100 312,755 1,411,240 1,146,668 1,384,532 2,170,800 237,864 786,268 1,260,012 1,606,540 2,295,800 346,528 689,260 757,016 906,400 1,392,000 149,384 485,600 3,238,536 3,897,320 6,050,800 658,784 2,153,480

19,918,524 24,673,375 36,162,100 4,754,851 11,488,725 10,488,240 14,264,943 17,784,900 3,776,703 3,519,957 903,658 1,143,652 1,671,200 239,994 527,548 193,440 215,280 376,800 21,840 161,520 79,722 92,138 154,400 12,416 62,262 80,295 97,255 153,700 16,960 56,445 79,839 92,575 155,300 12,736 62,725 111,996 127,368 219,600 15,372 92,232 1,958,584 2,270,368 3,766,000 311,784 1,495,632 135,166 140,414 268,200 5,248 127,786 753,026 898,952 1,435,300 145,926 536,348 40,772 41,036 81,400 264 40,364 674,240 768,620 1,297,000 94,380 528,380 3,554,354 3,597,042 7,092,700 42,688 3,495,658 94,160 108,720 181,600 14,560 72,880


61/168

2 300 15,000

2-43

2555

2555

2556

2555

2555- 2556

190,481 221,649 368,300 31,168 146,651 124,043 134,347 243,900 10,304 109,553

456,508 459,016 911,800 2,508 452,784 3,995,458 4,701,209 7,453,700 705,751 2,752,491 1,875,797 2,304,845 3,358,300 429,048 1,053,455 181,962 218,724 346,100 36,762 127,376 159,442 181,266 310,700 21,824 129,434 37,140 38,652 73,800 1,512 35,148 225,597 246,473 438,300 20,876 191,827 45,854 57,008 86,300 11,154 29,292 99,345 117,090 190,500 17,745 73,410 7,686 9,094 14,800 1,408 5,706 65,653 68,132 129,900 2,479 61,768 21,360 24,220 41,400 2,860 17,180

206,600 206,600 413,200 206,600 133,970 152,330 256,600 18,360 104,270 235,388 273,196 445,200 37,808 172,004 139,859 160,696 267,900 20,837 107,204 49,900 56,300 97,200 6,400 40,900 103,282 128,164 194,500 24,882 66,336 53,970 61,230 104,200 7,260 42,970 115,396 128,992 224,200 13,596 95,208 131,012 142,907 256,900 11,895 113,993 106,245 125,290 203,700 19,045 78,410

36,620,249 45,005,198 67,076,200 8,384,949 22,071,002 690,546 692,547 1,379,700 2,001 687,153

1,254,952 1,530,746 2,253,000 275,794 722,254 1,281,252 1,404,038 2,441,400 122,786 1,037,362 1,955,884 1,956,200 3,911,200 316 1,955,000 11,448,580 15,000,900 20,598,600 3,552,320 5,597,700 5,650,155 6,977,514 10,027,500 1,327,359 3,049,986 3,761,185 4,580,245 6,968,300 819,060 2,388,055 6,409,296 8,059,266 11,592,900 1,649,970 3,533,634 333,071 396,107 623,500 63,036 227,393 1,302,575 1,593,824 2,394,100 291,249 800,276 98,614 106,638 191,800 8,024 85,162 1,337,680 1,386,858 2,646,000 49,178 1,259,142 857,844 1,077,280 1,573,700 219,436 496,420

238,615 243,035 474,500 4,420 231,465: 1) 11 ( MOU) 9 MOU ( ) ... .. 2551 2) 9 MOU ( :Memorandum of Understanding) 3 2 3) 9 MOU : MOU () 2555


62/168

300 15,000

2-44

2-4 300 2555 2556

40 300

300 / 300 / 1

(1) (2) (3) (2)-(1) (3)-(2) 42,137 6,269,897 8,653,849 12,640,973 2,383,952 3,987,125 32,491 5,675,878 7,677,938 9,747,325 2,002,061 2,069,387 48,502 8,339,479 11,008,208 14,550,639 2,668,728 3,542,431 62,989 10,341,207 13,909,622 18,896,592 3,568,415 4,986,970 70,770 13,828,637 18,221,251 21,231,118 4,392,615 3,009,867 40,343 5,634,528 7,676,039 12,102,922 2,041,510 4,426,883 156,986 28,898,757 38,660,116 47,095,668 9,761,359 8,435,553 85,051 13,833,140 18,362,327 25,515,186 4,529,186 7,152,860 249,712 45,955,509 60,313,620 74,913,472 14,358,111 14,599,852 55,767 10,728,125 13,895,109 16,730,040 3,166,983 2,834,931 120,702 20,882,448 27,923,589 36,210,577 7,041,141 8,286,988

31,662 5,465,955 7,292,775 9,498,566 1,826,820 2,205,791 121,840 21,098,777 28,308,633 36,551,899 7,209,856 8,243,266 421,337 83,019,083 109,000,000 126,000,000 25,980,917 17,000,000 190,909 31,317,037 42,219,239 57,272,811 10,902,202 15,053,572 77,655 12,295,355 16,484,247 23,296,474 4,188,892 6,812,227 148,227 25,009,383 32,760,101 44,468,148 7,750,718 11,708,047 26,442 4,020,261 5,386,170 7,932,591 1,365,909 2,546,422 139,253 24,344,387 32,138,517 41,775,965 7,794,130 9,637,449 314,214 58,923,868 77,271,931 94,264,087 18,348,063 16,992,156 82,831 10,964,701 14,965,024 24,849,286 4,000,323 9,884,262 20,631 3,277,009 4,466,037 6,189,419 1,189,027 1,723,382 124,372 21,156,340 28,406,717 37,311,628 7,250,377 8,904,912

96,111 16,631,497 22,276,381 28,833,174 5,644,884 6,556,792 195,932 32,833,718 43,725,730 58,779,649 10,892,012 15,053,920 40,450 5,784,787 7,793,887 12,135,106 2,009,100 4,341,219 58,430 9,991,420 13,364,347 17,529,077 3,372,927 4,164,730 71,644 10,857,515 14,559,534 21,493,279 3,702,019 6,933,745 85,661 13,669,691 18,258,475 25,698,390 4,588,784 7,439,914 44,332 7,665,336 10,287,232 13,299,585 2,621,896 3,012,354 74,199 13,392,864 17,842,717 22,259,552 4,449,852 4,416,835 133,825 24,446,481 32,611,761 40,147,466 8,165,281 7,535,705 77,159 12,301,516 16,549,283 23,147,720 4,247,767 6,598,437 104,753 17,354,222 23,364,705 31,425,950 6,010,483 8,061,245 116,413 18,393,848 24,899,209 34,924,038 6,505,362 10,024,828

20,643 4,110,347 5,372,663 6,192,941 1,262,316 820,278 172,894 29,548,550 39,499,344 51,868,068 9,950,794 12,368,724 124,254 20,684,960 28,072,546 37,276,109 7,387,586 9,203,563 38,268 7,680,764 9,754,046 11,480,380 2,073,282 1,726,335 199,303 38,735,369 50,388,742 59,790,928 11,653,374 9,402,186 42,971 8,160,735 10,693,112 12,891,447 2,532,376 2,198,335 46,640 9,629,154 12,196,932 13,992,136 2,567,778 1,795,204 130,173 24,421,988 32,064,097 39,052,023 7,642,109 6,987,926 33,770 7,002,607 9,003,759 10,131,149 2,001,152 1,127,390


63/168

2 300 15,000

2-45

40 300

300 / 300 / 1 (1) (2) (3) (2)-(1) (3)-(2)

79,155 15,290,650 19,840,570 23,746,643 4,549,920 3,906,073 47,179 11,054,589 13,555,886 14,153,574 2,501,297 597,688

65,085 13,466,757 17,282,629 19,525,625 3,815,872 2,242,996 203,262 41,617,752 54,269,659 60,978,567 12,651,907 6,708,908 31,517 5,735,954 7,477,171 9,455,133 1,741,217 1,977,962 98,538 21,828,417 27,243,428 29,561,361 5,415,011 2,317,933 91,438 18,108,275 23,520,496 27,431,511 5,412,221 3,911,015 132,409 27,502,499 35,222,648 39,722,657 7,720,148 4,500,009 185,796 41,627,833 52,390,779 55,738,878 10,762,946 3,348,099 43,908 8,222,604 10,920,426 13,172,354 2,697,822 2,251,928 46,636 9,338,589 12,406,180 13,990,866 3,067,590 1,584,686 90,679 17,457,009 23,120,232 27,203,551 5,663,223 4,083,320 101,070 21,643,405 27,629,305 30,320,851 5,985,900 2,691,545 79,814 12,768,798 17,028,513 23,944,213 4,259,715 6,915,700

162,168 29,097,524 38,730,453 48,650,325 9,632,929 9,919,872 98,769 19,030,173 25,112,518 29,630,580 6,082,345 4,518,062 78,077 15,253,774 20,061,155 23,423,226 4,807,381 3,362,071 209,122 39,070,053 52,297,714 62,736,453 13,227,661 10,438,739 43,171 8,736,439 11,404,491 12,951,376 2,668,052 1,546,885 131,347 24,428,184 32,040,264 39,404,147 7,612,080 7,363,883 54,548 9,042,937 12,267,322 16,364,325 3,224,385 4,097,003 148,867 32,241,834 41,215,541 44,660,068 8,973,707 3,444,527 143,933 29,942,216 38,482,031 43,179,984 8,539,815 4,697,953 124,505 26,624,357 34,157,494 37,351,526 7,533,137 3,194,033 42,722 7,617,501 9,928,045 12,816,645 2,310,543 2,888,601 49,955 9,547,898 12,210,907 14,986,479 2,663,008 2,775,572

178,350 40,275,851 50,990,148 53,504,862 10,714,296 2,514,714 68,376 16,028,534 19,687,569 20,512,902 3,659,034 825,333 152,390 36,297,022 44,540,564 45,716,963 8,243,542 1,176,399 224,185 52,145,762 65,966,486 67,255,598 13,820,724 1,289,112 162,174 36,085,236 47,584,002 48,652,348 11,498,766 1,068,346 711,945 164,000,000 203,000,000 214,000,000 39,000,000 11,000,000

8,653,738 1,665,705,558 2,169,164,184 2,596,137,144 503,458,626 426,972,960


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.

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() ()

- (agenda) -

/

- /

-

15,000

3.2

1. 2.

3.

4. (Conjecture) Jump Process /


65/168

300 15,000

3-2

3.3

3.3.1

2 (

3.1)

3.1 (Real Minimum Wage)

:

:

.. 1989/90-1996-1997 .. 1989/90-1996-1997 GDP 40 (Labor-to-Capitalratio)

. . 1997 GDP ( 3.2) ..1998-2007 ..1998-2002

Real Minimum wage (Baht year 2007) 1981-2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-81

Jul-81

Jan-82

Jul-82

Jan-83

Jul-83

Jan-84

Jul-84

Jan-85

Jul-85

Jan-86

Jul-86

Jan-87

Jul-87

Jan-88

Jul-88

Jan-89

Jul-89

Jan-90

Jul-90

Jan-91

Jul-91

Jan-92

Jul-92

Jan-93

Jul-93

Jan-94

Jul-94

Jan-95

Jul-95

Jan-96

Jul-96

Jan-97

Jul-97

Jan-98

Jul-98

Jan-99

Jul-99

Jan-00

Jul-00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Year

Baht/day

Krabi Bangkok

Kanchanaburi Kalasin

Ka mp ha en g Ph et Kh on K aen

Chanthabu ri Chachoengsao

Chonburi Chainat

Chaiyaphum Chumphon

Chiang Rai Chiang Mai

Trang Trad

Tak Nakorn Nayok

N ak orn P ath om N ako rn Ph ano m

Nak ho n Rat ch as im a Nak or ns ri th am ma ra t

Nakornsawan Nonthabu ri

Narathiwat Nan

Burirum Pathum Thani

P ra ch au bk ir ik ha n P ra ch in B ur i

Pattani Ayutthaya

Phayao Phang Nga

Pattalung Phichit

Phisanulok Phetchaburi

Petchaboon Phrae

Phuket Mahasarakham

Mugdahan Mae Hong Son

Yasothon Yala

Roi-ed Ranong

Rayong Ratchaburi

Lop Buri Lumpang

Lamphun Loei

Srisaket Sakonnakorn

Songkha Satoon

Samut Prakan Samut Songkhram

Samut Sakhon Sa Kaeo

Saraburi Singburi

Sukhothai Suphan Buri

Surat Thani Surin

Nongkhai Nong Bua Lampoo

Ang Thong Amnatchareon

Udonthani Uttraradit

Uthaithani Ubon Ratchathani


66/168

3 300 15,000

3-3

3.2 GDP:

:

( 3.3) .. 1997

3.3

: Magruder (2011)

..1999 .. 1998

(Macro Economics) (Labor Economics)

0

5

10

15

20

2530

35

40

45

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Nominal

Real


67/168

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3.3.2

4-5

(

( )

(Minimum Wage Hike) Wage) 5

3.4 1)

:

2)

:

0

1

2

3

4

2550 2551

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2550 2551

300

(/)

3.4)

() ( 300

()

2552 2553 2554

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

2552 2553 2554

GDP

)

(Actual


68/168

3.4 (F)3)

:

4)

: 5) 50

: : Saovanee Chantapong , e-mailBank of Thailand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2541 2542 2543 2544 2545

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2541 2542 2543 2544 2545

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

2549 2550

3

: [email protected] Research Department, Monetary

546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553

546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553

551 2552 2553

12

300 15,000

olicy Group,


69/168

300 15,000

3-6

3.4

3.4.1

1. 1) (Minimum Wage: MW)

(Actual Wage profile: AW): MW/AW) 2) MW/AW 3) (Substitutability) (Knowledge-based) Big Push

2. (Inflation Expectation)3.

(Productivity) (1) (Higher Relative Price) (2)

4. Big Push 3 CP (High Wage, High Price, High Tech)

5. (Income Distribution) NewBusiness Model

3.4.2 :

Neumark and Washer (2008) 50 ..1990 (Human Capital)

Gary Becker (1995)


70/168

3 300 15,000

3-7

3.4.3 :

Card and Kruger (1994) New Jersey ..1992 20 1 Pennsylvania Card and Kruger

(EquilibriumEmployment)

Joseph Stiglitz (2002)

Acemoglu& Pischke (2001) (Training)

3.4.4 : Big Hike/Big Push

..1990-1997 Magruder (2011) Industrialization (Informal Sector) (Domestic Demand) (Local Demand)

Magruder (2011) ..1997 (Control)

( Big Push)

1979 (Wage Correction Policy) (Big Push Model) ( ..1980-84) ..1985 (High Minimum Wage)

..1986-87 Big Push


71/168

300 15,000

3-8

3.1

3.1

/

,

-/ (/)

/ //

(Wage-PriceSpiral)

(HumanCapitals)

:

3.4.5 :

(2555) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) 300 ( 4.5) (Productivity)

(2555)1 15-39

Big Push1"" SMEs 1.2 http://www.prachachat.net/news_detail.php?newsid=1336496782&grpid=&catid=04&subcatid=0402


72/168

3 300 15,000

3-9

3.4.6 :

(Formal Sector)

(Elasticity) - 36.3 7 ( 3.2) 61.5 ( 3.3) 10-20 ( 3.4)

3.2 :

7 2.1 1.7 1.7 (Own Account) 10.8 21.4 19.6 4.7 13.1 11.7- 4.3 5.1 5.0- 0.7 0.3 0.4- 36.3 15.7 19.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 5.2 5.6 7.0 5.4 5.6/ 7.2 7.6 7.5/ 1.1 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.7 15.8 22.1 21.0 100.0 100.0 100.0: .. 2554,

3.3 :

7 3.5 2.9 3.0

(Own Account) 18.4 37.4 34.1 8.0 22.8 20.3- 7.3 8.9 8.6- 1.2 0.5 0.6- 61.5 27.4 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0: .. 2554,


73/168

300 15,000

3-10

3.4 :

(/) HH HH (HH ) 6.1 6.1- 13.4 19.5

- 7.1 26.6- 1.9 28.5-10,000 13.1 41.510,000-50,000 56.1 97.650,000-100,000 2.1 99.7100,000-250,000 .3 100.0250,000+ .0 100.0 100.0 100.0: .. 2554,

(Domestic Market) (Growth Engine) Big Push (GrossDomestic Product: GDP) (Real Minimum Wage)

( 3.5-3.6)

3.5 30 ( Gini .. 2519-2552)

:

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

2519

2524

2529

2531

2533

2535

2537

2539

2541

2542

2543

2544

2545

2547

2549

2550

2551

2552

FF

F


74/168

3 300 15,000

3-11

3.6

:

(Demand for Labor) (Survival Probability) Input-Output Table (I-O Table) 100 100

4 5, 10, 20, 30 40

(Vulnerable Sectors) ( 3.7) (Secured Sectors) ( 3.8)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(K)

(K+A)

+ (L+A)

(L)


75/168

300 15,000

3-12

3.7 :Vulnerable Sectors( 4 )

: I-O Table 2005

3.8 : Secured Sectors( 4 )

: I-O Table 2005

VulnerableSector ( 3.9) Secured Sector ( 3.10)

0%50%

100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%

5% 10% 20% 30% 40%

0%1%2%3%4%5%

6%7%8%9%

10%

5% 10% 20% 30% 40%


76/168

3-13

:

I-OTable2005

3

.10

:SecuredSectors

(

4)

:

I-OTable2005

(SupplyE

lasticity)

(AsianEconomic

Comm

unity:AEC)..2558

AEC

15,000

,

5

10

20

30

40

0 5 10 15 20 25()

5

10

20

30

40


77/168

300 15,000

3-14

010203040506070

Daily USd Monthly PPP

AEC 300 AEC CapitalReallocation (Labor Demand) (Sectors)

3.11

: National Wages and Productivity Commission

( 3.11) 40

3.5 (Conjecture) (Jump Process)

.. 2533-2540 40 3 (RealMinimum Wage)

1. (domestic demand)

2. (Vulnerable Sector) 3. 4.


78/168

3 300 15,000

3-15

5. Big Push (Growth Engine)

6. (Productivity) (Imbalance)

7.

5 Growth Catch-up

8. AEC AEC ( Decile 6 th) ( 4)

3.6

1.

()

(Vulnerable Sectors) 2. (Monitoring Unit)

3. Modern SME SME

AEC (Regional Production Network) (Supply Chain) (High Technology)

4. (MainGrowth Engine)

5. Wage-Price Spiral


79/168

300 15,000

3-16

3.7

Jump Process /

Capture

15,000

-


80/168

3 300 15,000

3-17

( 2555), 300 : (General Equilibrium Model), Economic Seminar , , 2555.

Acemoglu, Daron and Pischke, Jorn-Steffen (2001),"Changes in the Wage Structure, FamilyIncome, and Children's Education",Open Access Publications from London Schoolof Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School ofEconomics and Political Science, 2001.

Card, David and Krueger, Alan B. (2000), Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Studyof theFast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply, American

Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 5, pp. 1397-1420, December 2000.Card, David and Krueger, Alan B. (1994), Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study

of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, American EconomicReview, Vol. 84, No. 4, pp. 772-793, September 1994.

Becker, Gary S. (1995) "It's Simple: Hike the Minimum Wage, and You Put People out ofWork", Business Week Column, Mar 6, 1995, p. 22.

Stiglitz, Joseph E.(2002), Employment, Social Justice and Societal Well-Being,International Labour Review, Vol. 141 (2002), No. 1-2.

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/revue/download/pdf/stiglitz.pdfMagruder, Jeremy R. (2011), Can MinimumWages Cause a Big Push? Evidence from

Indonesia, September 21,2011.http://www.econ.yale.edu/conference/neudc11/papers/paper_272.pdf

Neumark, David and Wascher, William L.(2008), Minimum Wages, Cambridge, MA: MITPress.http://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262141024


81/168

4

.

2529-2553 1 2 (Wage Distribution) (Labour Force Participation) 2

() 2540

60 10-99 /

1

300 7

1 2555 .. 2556


82/168

300 15,000

4-2

2 .. 2529-2553

3 4 5

4.1

25 .. 25292553 4.1 4 1) (Unpaid Family Workers)2) (Self-employed) 3) (Salaried Workers) 4)

4.1 ..2529-2553

.. 2529 41 31 4.1 72 .. 2529 52 .. 2547

54 .. 2553 27 ..2529 44 .. 2553

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%80%

2529 2532 2535 2538 2541 2544 2547 2550 2553

self unpaid employer salaried self+unpaid


83/168

4

4-3

4.1 .. 2553All Self-employed Unpaid Salaried Employer

Agriculture0.392 0.550 0.712 0.123 0.235

(0.488) (0.498) (0.453) (0.329) (0.424)

Fishing

0.009 0.013 0.010 0.005 0.009

(0.093) (0.115) (0.101) (0.068) (0.094)

Mining0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.001

(0.029) (0.011) (0.013) (0.042) (0.025)

Manufacturing0.135 0.046 0.029 0.254 0.119

(0.342) (0.210) (0.167) (0.435) (0.324)

Electricity, gas, and water0.003 0.000 0.000 0.006 -

(0.051) (0.006) (0.007) (0.077)

Construction0.055 0.008 0.006 0.106 0.182

(0.228) (0.091) (0.078) (0.308) (0.386)

Wholesale and retail trade0.158 0.197 0.156 0.125 0.255

(0.364) (0.398) (0.363) (0.330) (0.436)

Hotels and restaurants0.067 0.096 0.072 0.042 0.090

(0.250) (0.295) (0.258) (0.201) (0.286)

Transport and communication0.028 0.043 0.002 0.031 0.025

(0.164) (0.202) (0.045) (0.172) (0.157)

Financial0.010 0.001 0.000 0.022 0.002

(0.099) (0.031) (0.016) (0.146) (0.041)

Property0.021 0.010 0.005 0.036 0.044

(0.144) (0.100) (0.070) (0.187) (0.206)

Public administration and defense0.043 - - 0.099 -

(0.203) (0.298)

Education0.034 0.001 0.000 0.078 0.003

(0.182) (0.031) (0.018) (0.267) (0.054)

Health and social work0.019 0.003 0.001 0.039 0.006

(0.135) (0.057) (0.024) (0.195) (0.075)

Other services0.026 0.031 0.007 0.033 0.029

(0.160) (0.172) (0.086) (0.179) (0.169): (Standard Deviation)

4.1 () .. 2553 40 56 72 13


84/168

300 15,000

4-4

3 1) 10 2) 10 3)

3 .. 2530-2553 4.2

.. 2530 10 45 .. 2540 35

4.2 .. 2530-2553

10 30 .. 2530 46 2540 .. 2545 47 .. 2551 43 .. 2553 4.2

10

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%35%

40%

45%

50%

2530 2532 2534 2536 2538 2540 2542 2544 2546 2548 2550 2552

private less than 10 private 10+ govt


85/168

4

4-5

4.2 .. 2553

Private less than 10 Private 10+ Government

Agriculture0.296 0.046 0.024

(0.456) (0.209) (0.154)

Fishing 0.008 0.005 0.000(0.087) (0.070) (0.010)

Mining0.000 0.004 -

(0.018) (0.060)

Manufacturing0.119 0.471 0.004

(0.324) (0.499) (0.063)

Electricity, gas, and water0.000 0.001 0.025

(0.016) (0.026) (0.156)

Construction0.193 0.092 0.013

(0.395) (0.289) (0.113)

Wholesale and retail trade 0.189 0.150 0.001(0.391) (0.357) (0.038)

Hotels and restaurants0.066 0.050 -

(0.248) (0.217)

Transport and communication0.020 0.040 0.029

(0.140) (0.195) (0.166)

Financial0.006 0.033 0.019

(0.078) (0.179) (0.138)

Property0.027 0.053 0.020

(0.161) (0.225) (0.139)

Public administration and defense- - 0.435

(0.496)

Education0.006 0.025 0.282

(0.076) (0.156) (0.450)

Health and social work0.008 0.011 0.140

(0.087) (0.106) (0.347)

Other services0.062 0.020 0.009

(0.242) (0.142) (0.093): (Standard Deviation)

4.2 .. 2553 10 30 10 5 10 ( Kernel Density Distribution)


86/168

300 15,000

4-6

Log Log () () 3 .. 2539 .. 2553 4.3 4.4

.. 2539 40 10 62 10 35

.. 2553 24 10 20 10

43 10

4.3 4.4 .. 2529 .. 2553 4.5 .. 2529 .. 2540 ( 4.6 ) .. 2540 8 .. 2548 24 .. 2553


87/168

4.3 Kernel Density Distribution Log Log

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.81

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5


88/168

300 15,000

4-8

4.4 Kernel Density Distribution Log Log

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

10

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5


89/168

4.5

4.6

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

2529 2532 2535 2538 2

.. 2529-2553

( .. 2552)

41 2544 2547 2550 2553

4

.. 2528-2553


90/168

300 15,000

4-10

4.7 .. 2529-25533

15-65

.. 2529-2553 4.7 6 (SP) 68 .. 2529 29 .. 2553 6 (SC) (CO) 2.18 2.74 .. 2529 5.34 12.18 .. 2553

4.8 15-24 (young) 34 .. 2529 13

.. 2553

4.8 .. 2529-2553

3 6 (1) SP (Some primary and below) 6 (2) UP (Upper primary graduate) 6 (3) SHS (Some high school) 6 (4) HS (High school graduate) 6(5) SC (Some college) 6 (6) CO (College graduate and above)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2529 2532 2535 2538 2541 2544 2547 2550 2553

SP UP

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2529 2532 2535 2538 2541 2544 2547 2550 2553

SHS HS SC CO

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

2529 2532 2535 2538 2541 2544 2547 2550 2553

young prime old


91/168

4

4-11

15-65 15-24 (young) 25-55 (prime age) 56-65 (old)

4.2

2 4.2.1) (Wage Distribution) ( 15-65 35 ) 4.2.2) () ()

15-65 15-24 25-55 56-65

2 10 4.2.2 3

4.2.1 (Wage Distribution) Autor, Manning, and Smith (2010)

Lee (1999)

50

50 50 50

(1)

50 log

log 50 (Counterfactual Latent WageDistribution) 50 log log Lee (1999) (Proxy Variable) Lee (1999) Effective Minimum


92/168

300 15,000

4-12

Lee (1999) 4.5

50 (1) Lee (1999)

1. (Median) (Standard Deviation)

Normalize 50 0

2.

|

(1) ( (2)) 50 50 50

(2)

Autor, Manning, and Smith (2010) (2) Lee (1999) () Autor, Manning, and Smith (2010)

Province Fixed Effects Time Trends Allegretto, Dube, and Reich (2011) log log

50

. 50 50 (3)

Borjas (1980) Division Bias (3) 50 50 50 Endogeneity 50 (3)

(Inconsistent)


93/168

4

4-13

Autor, Manning, and Smith (2010) log (Instrument) 50 (3) Two-StageLeast Squares (2SLS) 50

50 Autor, Manning, and Smith (2010) (Fitted Value) 2SLS4 50 (3) Wooldridge (2002)section 9.5.2 Forbidden Regression Inconsistent

50 50 (3) 2SLS

65 (2)

65 65 65 65

(4)

(4) 65 Fixed Effects Time Trends (3) 65 (3)

4.2.2

1. Fixed Effects

Sabia (2009) Allegretto, Dube, andReich (2011) Sabia (2009) (State)Provincial Level Panel

4 2SLS 50 (Time Dummy) (Province Fixed Effects) Time Trend (Provincial Time Trend)

(Instrument)


94/168

300 15,000

4-14

(5) log

(Control Variables) log

25-55 ( 6 Endogenous Regressors) 15-19 56-65

Province Time Fixed Effects 1) (Employment-to-

Population Ratio) 2) (Labour Force Participation) 3) 4) (UnpaidFamily Workers) 5) (Self-employed) 6) 10 7) 10-99 8) 100 9) 10) log

Provincial Fixed Effects trend

Allegretto, Dube,

and Reich (2011) ADR Trend

Shock ADR

. (6) . (Linear) Time Trend

(6) .

2. Lagged Dependent Variables (Arellano & Bond)

Fixed Effects Dynamic Model Lagged Dependent Variable Model


95/168

4

4-15

(Labour Market Inertia)

, . (7) 1, ,

(7) 1 ,

, . (8) (8) Province Fixed Effects

(8) 1

, (9)

, (9)

(Ordinary Least Squares OLS) , , , , (Correlated)

(Inconsistent) Anderson Hsiao (1981) Arellano Bond(1991)5 , (Instrument) , ,

Lagged Dependent Variable 1 (9) , , 2

(8)

25-55 EndogenousRegressors Lagged Dependent Variables 2 (9)

5 Arellano Bond (1991) lagged dependent variables , 2 (instrument) ,


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4.3

4.3.1

35

2 2 (OLS) 2SLS Instrumental Variable (IV)

(3) Linear Time Trend . 2 (3)

4.9 Quantile () OLS

4.10 Quantile () Instrumental Variable

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Quantile

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Quantile


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4-17

(Marginal Effects) Quantile 1 4-1 4.9 4.10 OLS IV ( 95) 2 4-2 4.11 4.12

4.11 Quantile () OLS

4.12 Quantile () Instrumental Variable(Preferred Specification)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Quantile

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Quantile


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Logarithm 2 Instrumental Variable 4.13 ( Quantile )

4.13 ()

4.13 Spill Over 60 15

1 0.85 ( 4-2 0.85 exp0.6151) 4.13

4-1 4-2 60 IV 2SLS 2 85 90 65

OLS 65 (4) Division Bias

-1.0

-

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75

Wage Percentile


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4.3.2

15-65 3

Fixed Effects Arellano & Bond

4-3 6 4-3 10-99 ()

( Disguised Unemployment) 10 -0.048

15-24 4-4 10 81.3 ( .. 2553) 78.4 83.2 ( .. 2553 ) 81.5 -0.074

25-55 74 .. 2553

4-5

6 4-3 1 0.457 -3.306 ( -0.457/0.138 0.138

4-7)


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/ / ( 4-6) 12 .. 2553


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4-21

4-1

4-1 ( 4.9 4.10)

OLS 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

Marginal Eff 0.741*** 0.730*** 0.749*** 0.708*** 0.675*** 0.632*** 0.582*** 0.528*** 0.453***(0.042) (0.033) (0.028) (0.024) (0.021) (0.020) (0.019) (0.018) (0.018)

OLS 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95Marginal Eff 0.365*** 0.244*** 0.127*** -0.021* 0.006 0.078** 0.197*** 0.352*** 0.551***

(0.016) (0.012) (0.009) (0.012) (0.022) (0.031) (0.034) (0.041) (0.047)

IV 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45Marginal Eff 0.882*** 0.559*** 0.649*** 0.622*** 0.657*** 0.624** 0.545** 0.573** 0.318*

(0.258) (0.181) (0.172) (0.201) (0.245) (0.286) (0.230) (0.270) (0.163)

IV 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95Marginal Eff 0.326** 0.203** 0.075 -0.016 -0.033 -0.151 -0.137 -0.226 -0.418

(0.159) (0.096) (0.057) (0.091) (0.123) (0.166) (0.179) (0.238) (0.362)

Notes: Delta method standard errors in parentheses. *** p


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Employment by Industry/Population (15-65 years old

A Study on Impacts of Implementing Minimum 300 Baht Income per Day on Structure of Thai Economy

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