最近の再生可能エネルギー市場の動向について2017-12-13 · 経済産業省...

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Transcript of 最近の再生可能エネルギー市場の動向について2017-12-13 · 経済産業省...

  • 2115

  • 2526242725

    1 1

  • 2

  • 25

    (232(25)

    25

    3

    43.2

    30.3

    14.9

    1.

    8.

    .

  • 2013IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries (2014 edition)

    , 20.9% , 26.4%

    , 13.6% , 6.2% , 4.7% , 2.2%

    , 3.2%

    , 13.1%

    , 1.3%

    , 6.4% , 12.5% , 8.5%

    , 47.5% , 14.8%

    , 36.8% , 40.2%

    , 4.3%

    , 30.3%

    , 2.4%

    , 5.2% , 1.2% , 1.2%

    , 1.1%

    , 14.9%

    , 10.6%

    , 20.3% , 27.1% , 26.9%

    , 3.1%

    , 43.2%

    , 15.5% , 20.2% , 20.0% , 19.2%

    , 74.3%

    , 1.0%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013)

    4

    24.1%

    39.5%

    14.9%

    17.2%

    10.7%

    ()

    12.6%

  • 10kW40/kWh36/kWh32/kWh10kW38/kWh37/kWh

    251.636/kWh

    26

    26

    10kW 10kW

    32 371

    20 10

    20kW 20kW

    22 55

    20 20

    ()

    1,000kW 30,000kW

    200kW 1,000kW

    200kW

    24 29 34

    20 20 20

    15,000kW

    15,000kW

    26 0

    15 15

    39 32 24 17 13

    20 20 20 20 20

    20kW

    36

    20

    ()2

    1,000kW 30,000kW

    200kW 1,000kW

    200kW

    14 21 25

    20 20 20

    130/kWh 2 5

  • 6

    26

    78

    269

    246

    24

    269

    269 269

    Wh

    W

    W

    Wh

    W

    W

    Wh

    247 2611

    ,,

  • 7

    278

    2410kW400kW263

    242718245kW123kW965kW

    123kW

    25268

    123kW 82

    6.6%

    965kW3,894

    51.7%

    536kW127,028

    28.7%

    2,821kW10,372

    63.6%

    24

    25

    1,332kW4,699 71.3%

    4,436kW451,497 100%

    1,615kW441,125

    36.4%

    1,868kW131,727 100%

    245kW 723

    13.1%

  • 8

    kW 2013

    2020

    2030 2030

    (20146)

    1,432 2,800 5,300 7,457

    271 500 1,000 381

    52 53 165 53

    4,745 4,925 5,560 4,777

    358

    6,500 8,278 12,025 13,026

    kWh

    2013

    2020

    2030 2030 (A)

    (20146) (B)

    2030(2030

    ) (B/A)

    921.0% 3082.9% 572 5.6% 8438.3% 147%

    490.5% 880.8% 176 1.7% 670.7% 38%

    260.3% 340.3% 103 1.0% 370.4% 36%

    8008.5% 8057.7% 1,073 (10.5%) 8228.1% 77%

    370.4% 1791.7% 217 2.1% 2512.5% 116%

    1,00410.7% 1,41413.5% 2,14021.0% 2,02019.8% 94%

    2013

    26930

  • 300kWh/ 2014547kWh80%

    9

    6500 27018

    0.75/kWh 3.12/kWh

    225/ 935/

    290H26 1364

    48kWh 1554

    755kWh 22174

    65kWh 782

    1kWh 34

    22kWh 346

    169kWh 2125 2.7

    26930

    9

  • 10

  • 46.8 46.6 45.2

    44.1 42.7

    41.5 40.3

    39.4 38.5

    37.8 37.2 36.6 36.4

    53.7 52.3

    51.1

    48.2 46.6

    45.8 44.9

    43.2 42.6 42.1 41.4 40.9

    40.1

    51.7 50.1 49.6

    47.2

    45.5 44.4

    43.2 41.7

    40.9 40.2 39.6

    38.7

    37

    30.0

    32.0

    34.0

    36.0

    38.0

    40.0

    42.0

    44.0

    46.0

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    23 1012

    24 13

    24 46

    24 79

    24 1012

    25 13

    25 46

    25 79

    25 1012

    26 13

    26 46

    26 79

    26 1012

    10kW

    11

    10kW262510-1238.5/kW

    22610-1236.4/kW

    24

    25

    26

    /kW

  • 10kW

    12

    10

    4122020

    203,600/kW/

    2520 4.2kW 20 3,600/kW/

    20

  • 13

    10kW

    26

    26 27

    38.5/kW 251012

    36.4/kW 261012

    3.6/kW/

  • 10kW

    2510-122610-12110-50kW4.3/kW50-500kW0.4/kW500-1,000kW 1.6/kW1,000kW1.7/kW

    /kW

    10-50kW 50-500kW 500-1,000kW 1,000kW

    247-9 47.0 913 37.1 40 32.6 7 32.0 19 2410-12 43.5 5,110 36.8 158 29.8 30 28.0 35

    251-3 40.9 9,468 35.4 707 30.7 182 29.4 162 254-6 38.7 8,729 33.6 475 30.4 128 29.3 110 257-9 37.4 8,968 33.2 486 29.9 250 30.3 238

    2510-12 36.5 8,482 32.3 347 30.0 186 30.3 229 261-3 36.2 10,325 32.5 485 30.2 232 30.4 299 264-6 34.7 8,339 30.8 328 28.4 141 27.8 135 267-9 34.1 7,191 31.3 315 30.2 150 29.3 170

    2610-12 32.2 2,925 31.9 100 28.4 62 28.6 66

    26 27.5

    4.3/kW 1.7/kW 1.6/kW 0.4/kW

    14

  • 24252425400kW

    26242510-121,000kW27.5/kW

    272527-9 2610-121,000kW29.0/kW

    15

    (1,000kW)

    10kW

    /kW

    261-3 30.4 30.9 42 264-6 30.6 29.4 68 267-9 29.1 29.0 175

    29.7 29.4 285

    26 27.5

    25400kW 26924251018

  • 2510-26910kW13.0%14.0%1,000kW13.6%15.0%

    2714%

    16

    10kW

    2622411-2510

    %

    10kW 1,000kW

    2411 2510 13.0 13.6

    2510 269 14.0 15.0

    26 13

  • 261,000kW0.4/kW

    261-32610-121,000kW1.39/kW0.92/kW0.36/kW0.00 /kW

    20.36/kW260.4/kW)

    10kW

    1 /0

    2 /

    /kW

    10-50kW

    50-500 kW

    500-1,000 kW

    1,000kW

    1 2.38/0.31 2.15/0.70 1.82/1.04 1.89/1.39 2.27/0.36

    1 1.95/0.00 1.56/0.00 1.37/0.38 1.35/0.92 1.78/0.00

    2 3,758/28,775 399/1,228 334/585 496/672 4,987/31,260

    26

    0.4

    17

  • 26251.35/kW

    261-32610-121,000kW0.45/kW0.17/kW0.44/kW0.11/kW26

    99

    18

    10kW

    /kW

    10-50kW

    50-500kW

    500-1,000 kW

    1,000kW

    0.87/0.70 0.64/0.60 0.45/0.43 0.47/0.45 0.84/0.69

    0.59/0.34 0.30/0.27 0.15/0.14 0.18/0.17 0.53/0.31

    23,057/28,775 1,144/1,228 554/585 646/672 25,401/31,260

    26

    1.35

    1 /0 2 /

  • 0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    2.0

    2.2

    2.4

    2.6

    2.8

    3.0

    3.2

    3.4

    3.6

    3.8

    4.0

    4.2

    4.4

    4.6

    4.8

    5.0

    19

    261-32610-121,000kW0.8/kW/0.6/kW/260.8/kW/

    20.6/kW/

    10kW

    /kW/

    10-50 kW

    50-500 kW

    500-1,000

    kW 1,000

    kW

    0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6

    0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3

    3,737 797 328 397 5,259

    26

    0.8

    ,kW

    /kW/

  • 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    10 30 50 70 90 110

    130

    150

    170

    190

    210

    230

    250

    270

    290

    310

    330

    350

    370

    390

    410

    430

    450

    470

    490

    510

    530

    550

    570

    590

    610

    630

    650

    670

    690

    710

    730

    750

    770

    790

    810

    830

    850

    870

    890

    910

    930

    950

    970

    990

    20

    261-32610-121,000kW242//153//26150//

    27153//

    10kW

    ,kW

    //

    //

    10-50 kW

    50-500 kW

    500-1,000kW

    1,000kW

    218 195 190 242 219

    155 150 145 153 152

    588 66 98 206 958

    26

    150

  • 21

    10kW

    26 2,000kW 27

    27.5 /kW 29.0/kW 0.4/kW 1.35/kW

    150//

    0.8/kW/ 0.6/kW/ 13% 14%

    26

  • 25 500k

    271,000kW100

    10-50kW1,000kW/kW3/kW

    /kW

    2510-12

    /kW

    2610-12 1,000kW 267-9 kW kW

    10-50kW 2207.3 656,079 414.2 188,748 36.5 32.2

    50-500kW 310.3 12,682 143.1 6,409 32.3 31.9

    500-1,000kW 388 5,548 153 2,109 30.0 28.4

    1,000kW 3678.8 8,741 321.8 1,693 27.5 29.0

    269 1,000kW2610-12 1,000kW267-9

    9/kW 3/kW

    10-500kW

    22

  • 10-500kW

    10-50kW32.21,000kW29.0

    500kW500kW

    10-50kW0.70500-1,000kW0.43/kW1,000kW0.45/kW0.

    /kW

    /kW/

    10-50kW 32.2 0.00 0.70 0.3

    50-500kW 31.9 0.00 0.60 0.3

    500-1,000kW 28.4 0.38 0.43 0.4

    1,000kW 29.0 0.93 0.45 0.6

    1kW

    1,000kW2610-12 1,000kW267-9

    23

    261-32610-12

    261-32610-12

    2610-12

  • 10-500kW14%IRR

    2632/kWh10kWIRR6%10-50kW48%50-500kW31

    10kWIRR3.2%IRR3%10-50kW10%50-500kW6

    10-50kWIRRIRR6%10kW1,000kW

    IRR 2610-1232/kWh

    24

    10- 50kW 50- 500kW 500- 1,000kW 1,000kW IRR3% 10% 6% 5% 3% IRR6% 48% 31% 31% 36%

    10-500kW

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    20%

    10kW 50kWn=2,699

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    20%

    50kW 500kWn=99

    0%5%

    10%15%20%

    20%

    500kW 1,000kWn=59

    0%5%

    10%15%20%

    20%

    1,000kWn=66

  • 25

    26500kW

    247

    10-50kW0.7/kW50-500kW2.4/kW500kW

    (/kW)

    (/kW)

    10-50kW 38.1 37.5 27 37.4

    50-500kW 30.9 30.0 130 33.3

    500-1,000kW 33.8 33.2 34 30.0

    1,000kW 31.2 30.8 28 29.7

    (n=219)

    2472612

    0.7/kW

    2.4/kW

    10-500kW

  • 26

    500kW194101500kW283165

    500kW10170500kW16499

    (500kW n=101) 500kWn=194)

    10-500kW

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    020406080

    100120140160180

    10-500kW 500kW-

  • 27

  • 20kW

    47