2014 Economic Outlook Briefing

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing

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Chris BarnesChair, Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of

Commerce Board of Directors

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Mark Vitner Managing Director and Senior Economist

U.S. & N.C. Economic Outlook: What’s Ahead for 2014

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior EconomistMarch 13, 2014

Economic Outlook 11

Key Macroeconomic Trends

LessUncertainty

Deals on the federal budget and debt ceiling, along with the uneventful start of Fed tapering have removed some of the uncertainty hanging over the economy.

Slower Growth in the Near-term

Despite stronger GDP growth during the second half of 2013, we expect economic growth to slow during the first half of 2014 and remain below its long-run trend. Expectations have been reset lower.

UnconventionalMonetary Policy

QE has boosted asset prices more than it has the economy’s underlying fundamentals. Income and wealth inequality remain potent issues.

Global Economy

Despite rumblings in some developing economies, the global economic outlook remains positive, with global growth expected to improve in 2014.

Growth is Uneven Energy and technology have been two notable

bright spots in this otherwise disappointing economic recovery.

Economic Outlook 12

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q4 @ 3.2%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 2.7%

Forecast

U.S. GDP

After a surprisingly strong second half of 2013, real GDP growth will likely

decelerate during the first half of 2014.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economic Outlook 1313

Manufacturing

Manufacturing activity is cooling off as business strive to reduce inventories.

Source: ISM, Census and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Capital Goods OrdersISM

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

ISM Manufacturing Composite IndexDiffusion Index

ISM Manufacturing Index: J an @ 51.3

12-Month Moving Average: J an @ 53.8 -60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Ex-AircraftSeasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Averages

3-Month Annual Rate: Dec @ 3.2%

Year/Year Percent Change: Dec @ 6.0%


Consumer

Rising stock prices have helped bolster household finances at a time when real incomes are barely growing. Rising asset prices have helped bolster economic

activity at the upper end. Conditions for the vast middle remain bogged down by sluggish wage and salary growth.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Personal IncomeHousehold Wealth

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Household AssetsTrillions of Dollars

Financial Assets: Q3 @ $63.9 Trillion

Household Real Estate Holdings: Q3 @ $19.0 Trillion

Other Tangible Assets: Q3 @ $8.0 Trillion

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

PI vs. PI Less Transfer PaymentsYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average

PI Less Transfer Payments: Dec @ 0.4%

Personal Income: Dec @ 1.6%

Client/Prospect Name

Percent change in Personal Income Q3 2012-Q3 2013

KS4.8

SD8.6

OH3.8

WI4.4

IL3.5

NE3.9

MO4.0

IA4.6

MI4.0

IN2.2

MN2.8

ND6.5

ID4.8

AZ4.5

MT4.1

NV4.3

CO4.8

CA3.4

UT5.2

NM2.9

WA4.1

OR4.1

WY3.8

AK2.2

HI4.1

ME3.0

NH3.7

PA3.1

VT4.2

NY3.0

CT3.5

MA3.5

NJ3.3

RI3.3

AR 3.5

AL3.6

MS4.6

OK4.8

GA3.6

FL4.1

LA2.1

VA2.4

TX4.9

NC3.2

KY3.1

TN3.0

WV2.8

SC3.0

DE5.4MD2.4

DC3.2

U.S. = 3.6%

Greater than 4.5%

Less than 3%

4.1%–4.5%3.6%–4.0%3.0%–3.5%

WEST MIDWEST NORTHEAST

SOUTH

PACIFIC

PACIFIC


Consumer

Job growth holds the key to improvements in consumer confidence.

Source: Conference Board , U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Consumer ConfidenceHires v. Unemployment Claims

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

3.5

3.8

4.1

4.4

4.7

5.0

5.3

5.6

5.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Th

ou

san

ds

Th

ou

san

ds

Hires v. Unemployment Claims3-Month Moving Average, Millions

Hires: Dec @ 4.48M (Left Axis)Initial Unemployment Claims: Feb @ 0.3M (Right Axis)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Consumer Confidence IndexConference Board

Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: J an @ 38.1%Confidence: J an @ 80.712-Month Moving Average: J an @ 75.1


FOMC

Most FOMC members currently expect short-term interest rates to remain on hold until 2015.

We expect Fed communications on interest rate policy to shift over the course of this year.

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Target Fed Funds RateTiming of Firming

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2014 2015 2016

Appropriate Timing of Policy FirmingNumber of Participants

December Release

September Release

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Appropriate Pace of Policy FirmingTarget Federal Funds Rate at Year-End

September Projection

December Projection

2014 2015 2016 Longer Run


Housing Market Metrics

Despite some recent setbacks, we continue to look for a gradual recovery in homebuilding. Apartments are playing a larger role than in previous building

cycles.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic Case Shiller and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Home PricesHousing Starts

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Th

ou

san

ds

Housing StartsMillions of Units

Multifamily StartsMultifamily ForecastSingle-family StartsSingle-family Forecast

Forecast

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

-24%

-18%

-12%

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index vs. Homeownership Rate

National Home Price Index: Q3 @ 11.2% (Left Axis)

Homeownership Rate: Q4 @ 65.2% (Right Axis)


Small Business Confidence

Small businesses remain cautious but recent surveys show some improvement.View on capital spending and hiring continue to gradually trend higher.

Source: Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Capital Spending GapSmall Business Confidence

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Wells Fargo Small Business SurveyPresent Situation

Present Situation: Q1 @ 16

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Capital Spending Allotment GapDifference Between "Increase" and "Decrease" Over Past 12 Mo.

Allocated Capital Spending Gap: Q1 @ -1


North Carolina – Labor Market

North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen markedly over the past year.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

UnemploymentEmployment

December 2013

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Information

Other Services

Construction

Financial Activities

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacturing

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Educ. & Health Services

Government

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Total Nonfarm

North Carolina Employment Growth By IndustryYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA

Number of Employees

Less

More

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

North Carolina vs. U.S. Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate: Dec @ 6.9%

United States: J an @ 6.6%

Economic Outlook 21

Construction

Information

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Educ. & Health Svcs.



Trade, Trans. & Utilites

Manufacturing

Government

Other Services

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

3-M

on

th A

nn

ualiz

ed P

erc

en

t C

han

ge

Year-over-Year Percent Change

North Carolina Employment Growth by Industry3-Month Moving Averages, December 2013

Percent of Total Employees

10% to 20%5 % to 10%Less than 5%

Recovering Expanding

Contracting Decelerating

North Carolina


Economic Outlook 22

Raleigh-Cary

Winston-Salem

Hickory

Fayetteville

Charlotte

Durham-Chapel Hill

Asheville

Burlington

Greensboro

Wilmington

Greenville

JacksonvilleRocky Mount

Goldsboro

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

3-M

onth

Annualiz

ed P

erc

ent

Change

Year-over-Year Percent Change

North Carolina Employment Growth3-Month Moving Averages, December 2013

Population

500 Thousand +

200 - 500 Thousand

100 - 200 Thousand

Recovering Expanding

Contracting Decelerating

North Carolina



North Carolina

With steady population growth, residential construction is slowly regaining strength

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Housing PermitsPopulation

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

North Carolina Population GrowthIn Thousands

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Thou

sand

s

Thou

sand

s

North Carolina Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Single-Family: J an @ 29,700Single-Family, 12-MMA: J an @ 34,531Multifamily, 12-MMA: J an @ 14,357

Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968


Durham-Chapel Hill – Labor Market

Employment gains have been seen across most sectors.



-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Information

Nat. Res. & Construction

Other Services



Manufacturing

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Educ. & Health Services

Government

Total Nonfarm

Durham-Chapel Hill MSA Employment Growth By Industry

Number of Employees

Less

More

Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA

December 2013

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Durham-Chapel Hill MSA Unemployment Rate


12-Month Moving Average: Dec @ 6.5%

Seasonally Adjusted


Durham-Chapel Hill– Housing Market

The multifamily sector has led Durham-Chapel Hill's housing recovery, though the single family market is still well below historical norms. Prices are slowly

bouncing back but don’t have far to go before reaching prerecession highs.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Housing PermitsHome Prices

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

CoreLogic Home Price Index: Durham-Chapel Hill, NCIndex, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC: J an @ 137.9

United States: J an @ 165.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Thou

sand

s

Thou

sand

s

Durham-Chapel Hill MSA Housing Permits



Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate


Raleigh-Cary – Labor Market

The employment situation in Raleigh-Cary may be slightly understated, and the unemployment rate continues to fall.



-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Raleigh-Cary MSA Nonfarm Employment

QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: J un @ 2.7%Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 2.2%Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 0.9%

3-Month Moving Averages

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Raleigh-Cary MSA Unemployment Rate


12-Month Moving Average: Dec @ 6.9%

Seasonally Adjusted


Raleigh-Cary – Housing Market

Raleigh-Cary's housing market continues to post solid gains with home prices nearing their prerecession peak. However, a surge in multifamily homebuilding

has been followed by pullback recently.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Housing PermitsHome Prices

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

CoreLogic Home Price Index: Raleigh-Cary, NCIndex, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted

United States: J an @ 165.0

Raleigh-Cary, NC: J an @ 128.6

0

5

10

15

20

0

5

10

15

20

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Thou

sand

s

Thou

sand

s

Raleigh-Cary MSA Housing Permits



Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Economic Outlook 28

China Slowdown

Drought in the Western States

Credit Availability & Financial Reform

ManufacturingCompetitiveness

Geopolitical Events

Deleveraging

Immigration ReformEnergy/Commodity

Price Swings

Issues to Watch

Economic Outlook 29

Our Forecast

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Real Gross Domestic Product 1 1.1 2.5 4.1 2.4 1.0 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.4 3.1

Personal Consumption 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.5

Inflation Indicators 2

PCE Deflator 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.9

Consumer Price Index 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.1

Industrial Production 1 4.1 1.2 2.5 5.5 1.6 6.0 5.1 4.3 3.4 3.6 2.6 3.8 4.9

Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 2.1 4.5 5.7 5.0 4.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 7.9 7.0 4.3 5.2 5.9

Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 76.2 77.5 75.2 76.4 76.8 77.5 78.3 78.8 70.9 73.5 75.9 77.8 79.4

Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.5 6.1

Housing Starts 4 0.96 0.87 0.88 1.02 0.95 1.04 1.10 1.16 0.61 0.78 0.93 1.07 1.22

Quarter- End Interest Rates 5

Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.44Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.57 4.07 4.49 4.46 4.60 4.76 4.83 4.98 4.46 3.66 3.98 4.79 5.2310 Year Note 1.87 2.52 2.64 3.04 2.90 3.10 3.15 3.33 2.78 1.80 2.35 3.12 3.69

Forecast as of: March 12, 20141 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency I ndex, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages

2014

ForecastActualForecastActual

2013

Appendix

Economic Outlook 31

Recent Special Commentary

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

To view any of our past research please visit:

http://www.wellsfargo.com/economics

To join any of our research distribution lists please

visit:http://www.wellsfargo.com/

economicsemail

Date Title Authors

March- 06 Divergence in Consumer Confidence and Spending Alemán, Brown & ZacharyMarch- 06 What Inventories Giveth… Quinlan & HouseMarch- 06 Is the Fed Funds Target Rate Effective? Silvia, Iqbal & ZacharyMarch- 05 Growth: Defining Top Line Economic Opportunites as Fundamental Inputs to Decision Makers SilviaMarch- 05 California Economic Outlook: February 2014 Vitner, Wolf & MillerMarch- 03 Some Potential Economic Implications of the Ukrainian Crisis BrysonMarch- 03 Indian GDP Continued to Grow in Q4, but at a Sub- Par Pace Bryson

February- 28 Swedish Economy Solid But Not as Robust as Q4 GDP Suggests BrysonFebruary- 28 An Inventory Story: Why Canadian GDP Is Not All Good News QuinlanFebruary- 28 Housing Data Wrap- Up: February 2014 Vitner & KhanFebruary- 28 Does Deflation Threaten the Eurozone? Bryson, Iqbal & MillerFebruary- 27 Strong Imports Weigh on Swiss GDP Growth in Q4 BrysonFebruary- 27 Brazilian Economy Avoided a Recession, Surprised Markets AlemánFebruary- 25 Florida's Consumer Sentiment Sits Tight Vitner & WolfFebruary- 21 Mexican Economy in 2013: A Year To Forget AlemánFebruary- 18 Consumer Loan Vortex, but Underlying Data More Soothing Silvia & ZacharyFebruary- 18 Growth in Peru Remained Strong in 2013 AlemánFebruary- 17 Southern States: 2014 Economic Outlook Vitner,Wolf & MillerFebruary- 17 J apanese GDP Growth Falls Flat; Details More Encouraging QuinlanFebruary- 17 Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation: An Ordered Probit Approach Silvia, Iqbal & ZacharyFebruary- 14 Modest Recovery in the Eurozone Continued in Q4 BrysonFebruary- 13 Should Developing Economics Worry Us? Part II Bryson, Alemán & GriffithsFebruary- 10 Inflation Chartbook: February 2014 Bullard & HouseFebruary- 07 Natural Gas Prices Pose Only Small Challenge to Consumers House & BrownFebruary- 05 What's Next for Argentina After the Devaluation? AlemanFebruary- 05 Brazilian Industrial Production Took a Nosedive in December AlemanFebruary- 03 Charlotte Metro Area: A Delicate Balance Silvia & BrownFebruary- 03 The Russian Economy Slows Down Considerable in 2013 Aleman

J anuary- 29 California's Recovery Remains Solidly On Track Vitner & WolfJ anuary- 29 FOMC: Improving Economy, Low Inflation, Tapering Persists SilviaJ anuary- 29 Should Developing Economies Worry Us? BrysonJ anuary- 29 Florida's Economy Continues to Heat Up Vitner & MillerJ anuary- 29 Taiwan Enjoyed Modest, But Broad- Based, Growth in Q4 BrysonJ anuary- 28 Texas Keeps on Truckin' Vitner & WolfJ anuary- 28 British Economy Continues to Post Solid Growth BrysonJ anuary- 27 Is the European Sovereign Debt Crisis Solved? Bryson & MillerJ anuary- 27 Mexican Economy Continued to Struggle Late in 2013 AlemanJ anuary- 24 Argentina Is in the News Again AlemanJ anuary- 24 Are U.K. Rate Hikes in the Cards? BrysonJ anuary- 23 The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part IV Silvia & Brown

A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary

Client/Prospect Name

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

32

John E. Silvia … ...................... . … [email protected]

Global Head of Research and Economics

Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected] Head of Research & Economics

Chief Economist

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . .

[email protected]

Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….

[email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]

Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……[email protected]

Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… ………….

[email protected]

Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . [email protected]

Senior Economists

Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Economists

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………[email protected]

Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………[email protected]

Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist [email protected]

Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … [email protected]

Sarah Watt House, Economist …………… …………[email protected]

Michael T. Wolf, Economist ………………… … .

[email protected]

Economic Analysts

Administrative Assistants

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. (“WFS”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“WFBNA”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2014 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.

SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE

Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients

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mailto:[email protected]



















2014 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY RESULTS

Aaron Nelson, President and CEO

How has the recession affected your organization?

Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 20140.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

43.6%

56.4%

39.0%

51.9%

31.6%

50.4%

38.6%

49.4%

30.7%36.2%

6.1% 5.0%

11.6%

17.4%

31.9%

Negatively Not Much Positively

Has the current economic environment negatively affected your plans for growth over the next 12 months?

Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

55.6%

75%

49.5%53.3%

40.4%44.4%

25%

50.5%46.7%

59.6%

YES NO

Which answer most closely matches your current perception of the economic environment over the next 12 months?

I'm Selling and Moving

Environment is declining and expect my organization to contract

Environment will staty the same and I do not expect to improve of decline

Environment is improving and I expect my org to do well

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1.1

7.9

24.7

66.3

0

7

23.9

69

0%

9.5%

31%

59.5%

Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2012

Do you have plans to increase or reduce your workforce in the next 12 months?

Add workers No reduction or addition Reduce Workforce0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

35.8%

58.9%

5.3%

39.7%

58.9%

1.4%

29.8%

70.2%

0%

Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014

How do you think the Affordable Care Act will impact your business?

Very positively

Positively

No impact

Negatively

Very negatively

Unsure or too soon to tell

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

4.3%

19.6%

34.8%

10.9%

19.6%

10.9%

If you could change one thing locally (other than general economic conditions) to help your organization thrive, what

would it be?