2012 RBC Fixed Income Conference Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer May 15, 2012.
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Transcript of 2012 RBC Fixed Income Conference Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer May 15, 2012.
2012 RBC Fixed Income Conference
Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer
May 15, 2012
2
TELUS Forward Looking Statement
Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating performance of TELUS that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future performance and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2012 annual targets), qualifications and risk factors (including TELUS proposed share consolidation and foreign ownership levels, the ability over time to sustain dividend growth of circa 10% per annum with semi-annual dividend increases to 2013, and CEO three year goals for EPS and free cash flow growth excluding spectrum costs to 2013) referred to in the Management’s discussion and analysis in the 2011 annual report, and in the 2012 first quarter report. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance.
3
About TELUS
TELUS is a leading Canadian national telecommunications company providing services including wireless, data, Internet protocol (IP), voice, television, entertainment and video
$10.5 billion of annual revenue 12.7 million customer connections including:
7.4 million wireless subscribers 3.5 million wireline network access lines 1.3 million Internet subscribers 553,000 TELUS TV customers
Enterprise value: $25 billion ($6.9 billion net debt) Shares - TSX: T, T.A; NYSE: TU
TELUS’ revenue and EBITDA profile
4
EBITDA LTM1
$3.8 billion
Wireless56%
Wireline44%
1 12 months ending March 31, 2012
Revenue LTM1
$10.5 billion
Wireless53%
Wireline47%
Wireless56%
Wireline44%
Wireless59%
Wireline41%
National growth strategy drives strong wireless asset mix
Wireless subscriber results
5
7.4M total
1.2Mprepaid
Total wireless subscribers
Postpaid net adds growth of 21% y/y Smartphones now 56% of postpaid base, up from 38% in prior year
84%
16%
6.2Mpostpaid
Q1-11
7.0M
Q1-12
7.4M6.6M
Q1-10
Strong smartphone adoption, ARPU growth continue
6
1Q 2012 Smartphone base up 63% to 3.5 million year over yearData ARPU expansion driven by 36% growth in data revenue
Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12
5.45.8 6.2
22%38%
56%
Postpaid subscribers (millions)
Smartphone % of postpaid
$13.14$17.71
$22.83
Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12
Wireless Data ARPU
Wireless data revenue
7
Q1-11
$366M
Q1-12
$498M
$254M
Q1-10
Industry leading data revenue growth of 36%Q1 data increased to 39% of network revenue
Blended ARPU analysis
8
Data
Q1-12
$58.87
Voice
$57.89
Q1-11
22.83
40.18 36.04
ARPU increase of 1.7% in Q1-12 led by dataSixth consecutive quarter of ARPU growth
17.71
$55.80
42.66
13.14
Q1-10
39%
61%
Industry Canada sets spectrum auction and telecom foreign ownership policies
9
Spectrum cap of 10 MHz for prime 700 MHz auction and 40 MHz for 2.5 GHz auction
700 MHz prime spectrum divided into 4 paired blocks of 10 MHz 2.5 GHz spectrum cap means TELUS should be eligible to
obtain up to 40 MHz of spectrum Auctions delayed to H1 2013 for 700 MHz and H1 2014 for 2.5 GHz Foreign ownership restrictions to be lifted for carriers with less than
10% national market share TELUS encourages government to continue to work towards full
liberalization to ensure level playing field
Policy announcement on spectrum auctions consistent with TELUS’ proposed recommendations to Government
TELUS TV customer growth
10
Total TELUS TV subscribers*
* Includes both IP TV and TELUS Satellite TV subscribers
Q1-12Q1-11
358K
553K
Momentum continues with TV net adds of 44K in Q1-12 and 196K in 2011 Total subscribers up 54% surpassing 550,000
Q1-10
199K
TV and High-Speed Internet loading exceedingresidential NAL losses for seventh consecutive quarter
Future Friendly Home - continued Optik momentum
11
TELUS TV net addsResidential access lines net adds
High-speed Internet net adds
-51K-39K -37K -33K -31K -30K
32K
53K66K 60K
72K58K
29K38K 48K 44K 46K 50K3K
15K18K 16K 13K
22K
Op
tik
La
un
ch
-37K -47K
60K
80K
56K44K
24K16K
Q1-11Q4-10 Q2-11 Q3-11Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-11 Q1-12
Q1 2012 consolidated financial results
12
($M, except EPS) Q1-11 Q1-12 change
Revenue (external) 2,531 2,631 4.0%
EBITDA1 986 1,009 2.3%
EPS (basic) 1.01 1.07 5.9%
Capex 409 441 7.8%
EBITDA less capex 577 568 (1.6)%
Free cash flow 162 358 121%
Strong revenue and earnings growth driven by wirelessFCF driven by lower DB pension funding and financing costs
1 Q1-12 adjusted EBITDA of $1,010M excludes a $1M equity loss for residential component of TELUS Garden real estate joint venture and Q1-11 adjusted EBITDA of $970M excludes a $16M non-cash gain on Transactel.
Simple cash flow by segment
13
2001
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20081
(0.3)
Wireless
0.3
1.61.8
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9
EBITDA less capex ($billions)
1.4
2009
1.9
2010 2012E*
2.05
Wireline
* Using mid-points of 2012 targets. See forward looking disclaimer caution
1.0
1 2008 cash flow incl. $882M for wireless spectrum. Excl. spectrum cost, 2008 cash flow was $1.9B
1.9
2011
TELUS generating strong cash flows from operations
2012 annual targets*
14
Expecting revenue and earnings growth driven by wireless and data
2012 guidance y/y change
Revenue (external) $10.7 to 11.0B 3 to 6%
EBITDA $3.8 to 4.0B 1 to 6%
EPS (basic) $3.75 to 4.15 0 to 10%
Capex Approx $1.85B
* See forward looking disclaimer caution
TELUS’ strong balance sheet & credit policies
15
Long term policies & guidelines Q1-12 Met
Net debt to EBITDA(excluding restructuring)
1.5 to 2.0X 1.8X √
Available liquidity minimum $1 billion $1.12 billion √
Credit Rating BBB+ to A-BBB+/A-,
stable trend √
Dividend payout ratio guideline of 55 to 65% of sustainable net earnings on a prospective basis
Decade long track record of meeting prudent financial policies
Canadian Telco comparison
16
TELUS Rank
Net debt to EBITDA #1
Consolidated revenue growth #1
Wireless external revenue growth #1
Wireless EBITDA growth #1
Total wireless subscriber net adds #1
Wireless postpaid net adds #1
ARPU #1
Blended wireless churn #1
TV subscriber net adds #1
High-speed Internet net adds #1
Residential NALs erosion #1
TELUS is executing in the marketplace
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+
Appendix – long term debt maturities
C$ billions
0.3
1.1
0.6
1.6
0.7
1.0
0.20.4
1.0
Accounts receivable securitization
Commercial paper
Notes and debentures
As at March 31, 2012
Average term to maturity of debt is 5.7 years with staggered maturity profile
Appendix – TELUS free cash flow1 history
19
2009 - impacted by increased capex, pension and restructuring costs, and cash taxes
2010 - reflected reduced capex and restructuring costs, partially offset by higher cash taxes
2011 - after $200M voluntary pension contribution
2012 - after $100M voluntary pension contribution
FCF after spectrum purchases and before dividends
Wireless spectrum purchased 1,443
2003
776
2004
1,167
2006 2007
1,388
2002
2009
485
2008
361
1,243
(910)
2001
(1,266)
2005
1,345
1,336
(249)
2000
144
2010
939
2012E FCF before dividends
1,200 to 1,400
2012E*
($ Millions)
1 see “Appendix – definitions” for Free cash flow definition / 2012E derived from 2012 targets (Dec. 16, 2011)* See forward looking statement
2011
997
Net cash interest
EBITDA
($M)
Other2
Free Cash Flow (before dividends and spectrum)
Capex
Net cash tax payment1
Cash pension contribution (including DB pension recovery)3
Free Cash Flow(before dividends and spectrum)
Appendix – 2012E free cash flowAppendix – 2012E free cash flow
1 Midpoint used to calculate FCF range2 Includes restructuring payments (net of expense), and share based compensation (net of expense)3 Includes ~$175M cash pension contributions and pension recovery included in reported in EBITDA
~(350)
2012E
$3,800 to 4,000
~(45)
~(1,850)
1,380 to 1,580
(150) to (200)
~(180)
1,200 to 1,400
20* As provided December 2011. See forward looking disclaimer caution
Appendix – definitions
EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Capital intensity: capital expenditures divided by total revenue
Cash flow: EBITDA less capex
Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of share-based compensation expense over share-based compensation payments, subtracting the non-cash gain on Transactel, cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, restructuring payments and employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans.
Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented as a percentage of network revenue