Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Toronto September 11, 2003.
Europe investor meetings January 2007 Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer.
Transcript of Europe investor meetings January 2007 Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer.
Europe investor meetingsJanuary 2007
Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer
Forward looking statements
All dollars in C$ unless otherwise specified
2
This meeting and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events including 2007 targets, competition, financing, financial and operating results, and regulation that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions and other forward looking statements will not prove to be accurate so do not place undue reliance on them.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include but are not limited to: competition; capital expenditure levels (including possible spectrum purchases); financing and debt requirements (including share repurchases and debt redemptions); tax matters (including deferral of payment of significant cash taxes); regulatory developments (including local forbearance, local price cap regulation and wireless number portability); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports.
There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. For a full listing and description of the potential risk factors and assumptions, please refer to the TELUS 2005 annual report and updates in the 2006 quarterly reports (see Section 10 Risks and Risk Management in Management’s discussion and analysis), 2007 targets news release issued on Dec. 14, 2006 and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (sedar.com) and the United States (sec.gov).
About TELUS 4 Strategy 5 Operational update 10 Financial update 29 Investor considerations 39 Appendix 47
slides starting
Table of contents
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About TELUS Executing national growth strategy focused on data, IP & wireless
2006 guidance update1:
Revenues $8.65 to $8.70B 6 to 7% EBITDA $3.55 to $3.6B 6 to
9% EPS (basic)2 $3.15 to $3.25 38 to 40% Capex approx. $1.625B 20%
Enterprise value: ~$24B (equity ~$18B) Daily Trading: ~2.4M (Recent 90 day avg.) Listings: Common: TSX T; non-voting: TSX T.A; NYSE TU Reporting segments: wireless and wireline
4
2007 targets reflect healthy performance expected in wireless
1 Provided or re-affirmed on December 14, 2006
2 EPS includes $0.42 YTD Q3-06 of unbudgeted positive tax-related adjustments
Leading the way with a proven strategy
Strategic imperatives Focusing on growth markets of data and wireless Building national capabilities Providing integrated solutions Investing in internal capabilities Partnering, acquiring and divesting as necessary Going to market as one team
strategic intent… to unleash the power of the Internet to deliver the best solutions to Canadians at home, in the workplace and on the move.
Consistent strategy and execution 2000 2007
5
Strategic journey highlights
purchase of Quebec Tel purchase of national wireless operator Clearnet divestiture of non-core assets (real estate and directories) completion of national IP backbone & fibre network first in N.A. to launch Next Generation Network, enabling IP based
solutions for customers won national managed data solutions contract for TD Bank Verizon divested 20.5% ($2.2B) equity interest #1 or #2 North American wireless operator for past 8 quarters five year (2010) progressive collective agreement ratified staged launch of TELUS TV® in certain western markets wireless merger into customer facing business units won landmark Government of Ontario managed network contract valued
at $140 million over 5 years
2000
20076
Wireless Jan 2000 today1
• PoPs covered (millions) 7 31
• Mike (iDEN) (millions) - 26
• Generation 1G 3G
Wireline
• Ont/Que cities 3 41
• Co-locations 2 94
• Customer POPs 5 904
• Fibre lit (km) 0 14,000
• Platform Stentor TELUS
• Network Circuit-based Next Generation (NGN)
National transformation
1 as of September 30, 2006
7
8
87%Wireline 13% 49%
Wireline
51%Wireless
TELUS infrastructure today
$8.5B
20062Revenue
20001
Data and wireless now represent 63% of TELUS revenue
$5.7B
Wireline local27%
LD10%
Wireline Data19%
Wireless Voice
41%
Wireless Data
3%
LD23%
Wireline local49%
Wireless
18%
10%
Data
1 12 months ending Jun. 2000 2 12 months ending Sep. 2006
TELUS’ strategic focus on data and wireless
Operational update
Advance TELUS’ leadership position in the Consumer market
Advance TELUS position in the Business market
Advance TELUS position in the Wholesale market
Drive improvements in productivity and service excellence
Strengthen the spirit of the TELUS team and brand, and develop the best talent in global communications industry
2006 priorities support national growth strategy
Continued on strategy execution for benefit of investors11
TELUS total subscriber connections
Connections increased 1 million due to wireless and Internet
12
Wireless
High-speed Internet
Dial-up Internet
Res NALs
Bus NALs
(millions)
Q3-06Q3-05Q3-04
10.510.0
9.5
Total wireless subscribers
Postpaid 81%
Prepaid 19%
Net additions
Total subscribers up 14% and strong postpaid mix
13
4.9 million total
3.9M
925K
Q3-05 Q3-06
80%81%
282K283K
349K354K
Wireless subscriber results
YTD
14
Fostering continued data growth
Launched wireless high speed (EVDO) 24+ major urban markets
Cool applications
Music downloads and video games
Watch 15 channels on Mobile TV
Five times faster
Wireless data growth opportunity
Industry ARPU comparison
$61
$49
$63
$55
$51
TELUS Rogers Wireless BCE Wireless
review of operations – wireless
Increased usage and data driving positive industry trend usage
15
YTD Q3-05
YTD Q3-06
$51
Wireless data growth opportunity
$2.85
$5.11
$6.23
TELUS Rogers Wireless
review of operations – wireless
TELUS Q3 data ARPU up 79%
16
Q3-05
Q3-06
$4.60
T-mobileUSA
2.9%
17
YTD Q3-06 wireless churn
low churn relative to global peers
SprintNextel
2.2%
1.8%
Cingular
1.60%
RogersWireless
1.86%
BCE
1.33%
TELUS Verizon
1.2%
2.3%
OrangeFrance
1.70%
T-mobileGermany
1.1%
TIMItaly
2.4%
KPNMobile
2.8%
VodafoneUK
Source: Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix Q3 2006
TELUS wireless EBITDA & cash flow growth
2000¹
173
(360)
356
2001²
(288)
535
75
2002
815
455
2003
1,142
788
2004 2005
¹ Pro forma acquisition of Clearnet
² EBITDA (excluding restructuring) for 2001 & 2002
1,443
1,038
EBITDA ($M)
EBITDA less Capex ($M)
1,737
1,275
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1,975
2007E4
1,427
³ Midpoints of 2006 targets. See forward looking statement caution. 4 Midpoint of 2007 targets normalized for pre-tax option expense of $50 million.
2006E3
Wireless profitability and economic growth
review of operations
TELUS a North American leader
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Source: Company Reports, using total revenue
TELUS
46%
US avg.Other CdnYTD Q3-06
EBITDA margin 42% 32%
Capex intensity
Cash flow yield 35%
11% 12% 16%
16%30%
Increasing Canadian industry wireless penetration
review of operations
4 to 5 million net additions expected in Canada over 3 years
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Source: Industry analysts
2003
42%
2009E*
~70%
2006 (Sep)
54%Penetration:
13.4M ~23M17.8MSubscribers:
* See forward looking statement caution
Exclusive arrangement and investment
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Amp’d Mobile responsible for marketing, freshest and exclusive entertainment content, and optimized handsets
TELUS responsible for managing sales and distribution, billing, client care, network options and pricing
Targeting 18 to 35 age demographic and lifestyle
Exclusive licensing and service agreement – not a traditional MVNO
Amp’d Mobile is a premium brand with high ARPUs focused on mobile media (not traditional voice) and postpaid
TELUS Ventures investing US $7.5M in Amp’d Mobile, Inc.
Amp’d Is Mobile Media
2005 2006E1
632650-675
EBITDA ($M)Revenue ($M)
2004
561
2005 2006E1
21
~30
2004
(22)2003
555
2003
(29)
Non-ILEC (Ontario and Quebec) revenue & EBITDA
1 December 14, 2006 guidance. See forward looking statement caution.
Continued focus on profitable, long-term growth in Central Canada
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1.1 million total
Total Internet subscribers
High-speed81%
Dial up19%
High-speed Internet subscriber growth
46K
109K
High-speed Internet net additions
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Q3-05 Q3-06
872K
206K
Continued strong net addition growth due to effective marketing
YTD
Rolling out TELUS TV
financial review
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Offering customers differentiated entertainment
Choice of 200+ digital stations
Customized channel packaging
Interactive programming guide
Video on demand
myTELUS channel
Call display
Operating on ADSL2+ platform
Launched in Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver
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TELUS TV
CloseIncoming call from Kim Smith (604) 555-1234
Price Cap Regulatory Framework
Competitive Intensity
Technological Substitution + +
Non-ILEC Growth
Future Friendly
Home
Organization Effectiveness+ +
Strive to hold wireline EBITDA (before restructuring) flat over medium term
=Growth in revenues and EBITDA from wireless business
Continued improvements in consolidated results
growth opportunities challenges
Short-term dilutive
wireline
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Framework for long term growth
Financial update
2006 Consolidated guidance summary
$1.5 to $1.55BCapex
$1.55 to $1.65BFree cash flow
$2.40 to $2.60EPS (basic)4
EBITDA3
Revenue
$3.5 to $3.6B
$8.6 to $8.7B
Overall positive revisions to original guidance throughout year
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Original 2006 guidance 1
Updated 2006 guidance 2
approx. $1.625B
$1.6 to $1.65B
$3.15 to $3.25
$3.55 to $3.6B
$8.65 to $8.70B
On track
1 Provided on December 16, 2005 2 Provided or re-affirmed on December 14, 20063 Original targets included restructuring & workforce reduction costs of approx. $100M, vs. up to
$80M for re-affirmed guidance
4 EPS includes $0.42 YTD Q3-06 of unbudgeted positive tax-related adjustments
2007 Consolidated targets summary
approx. $1.75BCapex
Revenue $9.175 to 9.275B
2007 targets reflect healthy performance expected in wireless
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2007 targets change
8%
6 to 7%
1 Restructuring and workforce reduction costs are estimated to be up to $80 million in 2006 and approximately $50 million in 2007.
2 EBITDA normalized for expected 2007 pre-tax option expense of $200 million consolidated ($150 million in wireline and $50 million in wireless). Reported EBITDA in 2007 would be $3.525 to $3.625 billion consolidated, $1.625 to $1.675 billion in wireline, and $1.90 to $1.95 billion in wireless .
3 EPS normalized for $0.40 for expected 2007 cash settlement option expense. Reported EPS in 2007 would be $2.85 to $3.05.
Normalized EBITDA1 $3.725 to 3.825B2 4 to 7%
Normalized EPS $3.25 to 3.453 17 to 24%
2007 Wireline targets
approx. $1.2BCapex
Revenue $4.85 to 4.9B
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2007 targets change
-
1 to 2%
1 Restructuring and workforce reduction costs are estimated to be up to $80 million in 2006 and approximately $50 million in 2007.
2 EBITDA normalized for expected 2007 pre-tax option expense of $200 million consolidated ($150 million in wireline and $50 million in wireless). Reported EBITDA in 2007 would be $3.525 to $3.625 billion consolidated, $1.625 to $1.675 billion in wireline, and $1.90 to $1.95 billion in wireless.
Normalized EBITDA1 $1.775 to 1.825B2 (1) to (3)%
High-speed sub. net adds more than 135,000 -
2007 Wireless targets summary
approx. $550MCapex
Revenue $4.325 to 4.375B
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2007 targets change
12 to 13%
1 Restructuring and workforce reduction costs are estimated to be up to $80 million in 2006 and approximately $50 million in 2007.
2 EBITDA normalized for expected 2007 pre-tax option expense of $200 million consolidated ($150 million in wireline and $50 million in wireless). Reported EBITDA in 2007 would be $3.525 to $3.625 billion consolidated, $1.625 to $1.675 billion in wireline, and $1.90 to $1.95 billion in wireless.
Normalized EBITDA1 $1.95 to 2.0B2 12 to 15%
29%
Wireless sub. net adds more than 550,000 -
2007 Consolidated revenue targets ($B)
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Revenue growth of 6 to 7% driven by 12 to 13% wireless and modest wireline growth
2006E1 2007E
~8.675 9.175 to 9.275
2005
8.143
2004
7.581
1 Midpoint of updated 2006 guidance
2007 Consolidated EBITDA target ($B)
35
Target represents normalized EBITDA growth of 4 to 7% due to 12 to 15% growth in wireless
2006E1 2007Ereported
~3.575 3.525 to 3.625
2005
3.295
2004
3.091
1 Midpoint of updated 2006 guidance 2 2007 EBITDA target normalized for cash settlement option expense of $200M
2007E2
normalized target
3.725 to 3.825
2007 EPS ($)
36
1 Midpoint of updated 2006 guidance
2006E1 2007E
~3.202.85 to 3.05
2005
1.96
2004
1.58
Reported 2007 EPS down 5 to 11%
2007 EPS continuity
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Strong normalized EPS growth of 17 to 24%
2006E1
~$3.20
42¢
Higher dep.
Lowerfin.
costs
Decr. in avg o/sshares
EBITDA growth
Tax- related adjust.
~$2.78
2006E normal.
35 to 55 ¢
9¢
11¢
10 to 15¢
2007E
$2.85 to 3.05
40¢
Cashsettlement for options
1 Midpoint of updated 2006 guidance
$3.25 to 3.45
2007E normal.
2007 free cash flow detail ($B)
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2007 Free Cash Flow expected to remain high
1 Midpoint of updated 2006 guidance
2006E1 2007E
~1.6251.45 to 1.55
Free cash flow (2006 definition)
20052004
1.47
1.30
Investor considerations
Renewed 24 million share repurchase program in Dec. 2006
Authorized to repurchase up to 12M common and 12M non-voting (up to 7% of total shares outstanding)
Introducing cash settlement for vested options - mitigates shareholder dilution
Dividend increased by 36% to 37.5 cents per quarter for Jan 1, 2007, consistent with dividend growth approach
Annualized dividend in line with targeted payout ratio guideline of 45 to 55% of sustainable net earnings
Annualized dividend now at all time high of $1.50
40
Return of capital summary
41
1
2
3
4
2003 2004 2005 20061 2007E2,3
0.60
3.30 3.43Dividends
Share repurchases
$ per share
1 Actual dividend, plus share repurchases for year ended December 31, 2006
0.82
Strong record of returning capital
0.801.10
1.50
3.83
2 Annualized dividend, plus share repurchases in 2006 as estimate for 20073 See forward looking statement caution. Assumes continuation of share repurchase program.
0.60
2.33
0.22
2.50
2.33
Positive step toward reliance on competitive market forces
42
Recent regulatory development
Forbearance policy announcement by Minister of Industry:
ILEC deregulation test
Residential – ILEC, unaffiliated wireless, and cableco
Business – ILEC plus unaffiliated facilities-based competitor
Winback and promotions restrictions to be eliminated
Geographic forbearance areas reduced (e.g. local exchanges)
Quality of Service indicators reduced
a reduction from 14 to 9 required to be met
Expect to obtain forbearance in major urban ILEC markets in second half of 2007
Cash flow1
EBITDA
Revenue
20052004Growth in
EPS
2003
1 EBITDA less capital expenditures. See forward looking statement caution
Source: Bloomberg and TD Securities data on major global incumbent telecoms
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Leading global telecom performance
#1
#1top 25%
top 25%
#1
- top 25%
top 25%
top 25%
#1
top 25%
#2
TELUS performing well relative to global telecom peers
2006
top 25%
top 25%
top 25%
top 50%
Annual Report on Annual Reports TELUS 2005 AR ranked 1st in world
Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA) Best Corporate Governance Disclosure in Canada (December 2006) 2005 Annual Report received Award of Excellence
Corporate Reporting - Communications & Media sector 12 consecutive years of recognition
IR Magazine (Canada) awards 2006: Best 2004 annual report & disclosure policy 2005: Best mgmt. communications & web site
Dow Jones Sustainability Index Only North American telco in global index
e.ComReport Watch
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Excellence in disclosure and governance
Strong revenue growth with high exposure to wireless
EBITDA growth driven by wireless
Continued wireless and Internet subscriber growth
Focus on investment in growth areas
Track record of returning capital to investors
Excellence in reporting, transparency and governance
investor considerations summary
45
2007 targets consistent with TELUS growth model
Appendix
47
Share repurchase programs
Total cost ($M) $78
Track record of share repurchases
48
2004
$1,800
1 percentage of 25.5 million share repurchase program Dec. 20, 2004 to Dec. 19, 2005
2 percentage of 24 million share repurchase program Dec 20, 2005 to Dec. 19, 2006
Total Shares (M) 2.2 39.4
% of total program
2005 2006 Total
$892 $800
20.8 16.4
85%1 73%2 79%
2007 free cash flow detail ($B)
49
2007 Free Cash Flow expected to remain high
2 Expected cash impact due to option cash settlement of approximately $100M midpoint
2006E 2007E2
~1.6 1.525 to 1.625
normalized Free cash flow
(2007 definition1)
1 2007 definition of FCF subtracts cash payments related to Other expenses
50
2007E free cash flow detail
$1,425 to 1,525
~(430)
~200
$3,525 to 3,625
2007E
Free Cash Flow
Net Cash Interest
Add back: cash settled option expense
EBITDA
($M)
~(20)Other1:
1 Includes restructuring expense (net of cash payments), net cash taxes, other share based compensation (net of cash payments) and cash payments related to Other expenses
2 Cash settled option payments are tax deductible and reduce treasury share issuance
$3,725 to 3,825EBITDA normalized
~(1,750)Capex
Free Cash Flow (before cash settled option pmt.) $1,525 to 1,625
Cash settled options paid2 (75) to (125)
TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures
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Definitions EBITDA: Earnings, after restructuring and workforce
reduction costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue
Cash flow: EBITDA less capex
Free Cash Flow (2006): EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, and cash restructuring payments
Free Cash Flow (2007): Consistent with FCF above and subtracting cash payments related to Other expenses such as charitable donations and A/R securitization expense
TELUS Corporation
Agency Rating Outlook
DBRS BBB (high) Stable trend
S&P BBB+ Stable outlook
Fitch BBB+ Stable outlook
Moody’s Baa2 Under Review for upgrade
Solid investment grade
Credit rating overview
52
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Robert G. McFarlaneExecutive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer
Appointed TELUS CFO in late 2000 and assumed corporate strategy and M&A responsibilities in 2005
Formerly EVP, CFO and secretary-treasurer of Clearnet Communications Inc. from its 1994 IPO until its acquisition by TELUS.
Vice-chair of Business Council of British Columbia and a member of its Economic Policy Committee. Director and Chair of Audit Committees of Royal & SunAlliance Insurance Company of Canada and Ascalade Communications Inc. Serves on Vancouver Advisory Board of Salvation Army, British Columbia Division.
Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree from Queen’s University in 1983 and MBA from Richard Ivey School of Business at University of Western Ontario in 1985.