February 12, 2010 Q4 2009 TELUS investor conference call Darren Entwistle President & CEO Robert...
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Transcript of February 12, 2010 Q4 2009 TELUS investor conference call Darren Entwistle President & CEO Robert...
February 12, 2010
Q4 2009 TELUSinvestor conference call
Darren EntwistlePresident & CEO
Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer
Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating results of TELUS that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2010 targets), qualifications and risk factors (including those associated with the deployment and operation of the new national high-speed packet access network and associated introduction of new products, services and systems) referred to in the Management’s discussion and analysis in the 2008 annual report, and in the 2009 quarterly reports. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance.
TELUS forward looking statementsTELUS forward looking statements
Wireless and wireline segment review Consolidated financial review Updates
New TELUS TV developments Broadband build update Defined benefit pension assumptions update
2009 summary Questions and answers Appendix
3
AgendaAgenda
($M) Q4-08 Q4-09 Change
Revenue (external) 1,188 1,225 3.1%
Operational expenses 697 794 14%
Restructuring costs 6 3 n.m.
EBITDA 492 435 (12)%
Capex 236 192 (19)%
As expected EBITDA impacted by higher retention costs to support smartphone adoption
As expected EBITDA impacted by higher retention costs to support smartphone adoption
4
Wireless segment – Q4 2009 financial resultsWireless segment – Q4 2009 financial results
19%
Wireless subscribers1
81%
Totalnet additions
6.5 million total
5.3M
1.2M
High quality postpaid net adds reflected 89% of subscriber mix compared to 80% a year agoHigh quality postpaid net adds reflected 89%
of subscriber mix compared to 80% a year ago
Q4-08
148K
5
Wireless subscriber resultsWireless subscriber results
Q4-09
122K
109K119K
Postpaid
Prepaid
1 Opening balances for postpaid and total wireless subscribers for Q4-09 were reduced by 11K to reflect prior period reporting adjustments.
Smartphone subscriber base increased 61% and expected to be a positive factor for future ARPU
Smartphone subscriber base increased 61% and expected to be a positive factor for future ARPU
6
Smartphone mixSmartphone mix
Smartphone subscribers represent 20% of postpaid base compared to 13% a year ago
Post HSPA network & device launch on November 5: More than 40% of gross postpaid loading came from
smartphones More than 100% increase in retention subscriber
upgrades to smartphones
Data
Q4-09
$57.38
Voice$62.16
Q4-08
7
Q4-09Q4-08
% of ARPU
Wireless ARPUWireless ARPU
11.17
ARPU lower due to continued voiceerosion partially offset by data growthARPU lower due to continued voice
erosion partially offset by data growth
50.9944.78
12.60 22%18%
82%78%
Data growth of 20% driven by continued smartphoneadoption and to be enhanced with HSPA smartphonesData growth of 20% driven by continued smartphone
adoption and to be enhanced with HSPA smartphones8
Q4-08
$203M
Wireless data revenue Wireless data revenue
Q4-09
$243M
$131M
Q4-07BlackBerryBold
Q4-08 Q4-09 Change
Gross adds (000s) 441 431 (2.3)%
Churn 1.62% 1.60% (0.02) pts
COA per gross add ($) 372 380 2.2%
COA expense ($M) 164 163 (0.6)%
Retention expense ($M) 105 133 27%
Increased investments in retention focused on continued smartphone adoption
Increased investments in retention focused on continued smartphone adoption
9
Wireless marketing and retentionWireless marketing and retention
Note: Measurement of costs of acquisition and retention refined in 2009. Prior year comparisons restated.
($M) Q4-08 Q4-09 Change
Revenue (external) 1,266 1,218 (3.8)%
Operational expenses1 824 826 0.2%
Restructuring costs 32 74 n.m.
EBITDA 445 354 (20)%
Capital expenditures 395 322 (18)%
10
EBITDA impacted by higher restructuring and pension costs EBITDA impacted by higher restructuring and pension costs
Wireline segment – Q4 2009 financial resultsWireline segment – Q4 2009 financial results
1 Excluding defined benefit pension expenses from both periods, operating expenses down 3.2%
($M) Q4-08 Q4-09 Change
EBITDA 445 354 (20)%
Defined Benefit pension expense/(recovery)
(23) 6
Restructuring costs 32 74
EBITDA normalized 454 434 (4.4)%
11
Wireline segment – EBITDA normalizedWireline segment – EBITDA normalized
Significant restructuring investment impacted Q4 profitability but expected to lower 2010 cost structure
Significant restructuring investment impacted Q4 profitability but expected to lower 2010 cost structure
1.2 million total
Internet subscribersHigh-speed Internet net additions
Q4-08 Q4-09
1.1M
87K19K
11K
12
High-speed93%
HSIA net adds lower YoYHSIA net adds lower YoY
Internet subscribersInternet subscribers
TELUS TV net additions1
Q4-08 Q4-09
15K
33K
13
TTV continues to show strong results with net adds up 120% and total subscriber base up 118%
TTV continues to show strong results with net adds up 120% and total subscriber base up 118%
TELUS TV subscribersTELUS TV subscribers
Q4-08 Q4-09
78K
170K
TELUS TV subscribers1
1 Includes both TELUS IP TV and TELUS Satellite TV subscribers
14
In Q4/09 TELUS TV and Internet loading exceeded residential NAL losses
In Q4/09 TELUS TV and Internet loading exceeded residential NAL losses
Stabilized residential NAL lossesStabilized residential NAL losses
Q3-09
-41K-41K-41K
Q2-09Q1-09Q4-08
-42K
Q4-09
-41K
44K
31K20K
34K34K
TELUS TV & high-speed Internet
Residential NAL’s
15
Building the future of TELUS TVBuilding the future of TELUS TV
15
Microsoft Mediaroom launched Feb. 2 across various B.C. and Alberta communities
PVR Anywhere – record and watch on any connected TV
Multiple TV’s in a home with multiple HD streams
Superior picture quality
Enhanced channel guide with picture in picture display
Instantaneous channel changing
Faster Internet speeds
Introducing innovative new features that differentiates against cable-TV
Introducing innovative new features that differentiates against cable-TV
16
Broadband build updateBroadband build update
16
Continued ramp-up in broadband coverageContinued ramp-up in broadband coverage
Expanded FTTN coverage to > 75% of households in top 48 communities in Western Canada at YE 2009
Greater Vancouver coverage increased to >70% in Q4
Expect coverage of up to 90% of households in top 48 communities in Western Canada by YE 2010
Cost effective upgrade to VDSL2 technology underway
Provides data download speeds of up to 30 Mbps
Enables expanded IPTV coverage and features
Continuing FTTH to new developments and FTTB to MDU’s
($M excluding EPS) Q4-08 Q4-09 Change
Revenue 2,454 2,443 (0.4)%
Operating expenses 1,479 1,577 6.6%
Restructuring costs 38 77 n.m.
EBITDA 937 789 (16)%
EPS 0.90 0.49 (46)%
Capital Expenditures 631 514 (19)%
Consolidated results in-line with most recent guidanceConsolidated results in-line with most recent guidance
17
Consolidated – Q4 2009 financial resultsConsolidated – Q4 2009 financial results
($M) Q4-08 Q4-09 Change
EBITDA 937 789 (16)%
DB pension expense/(recovery) (25) 5
Restructuring costs 38 77
EBITDA (normalized) 950 871 (8.3)%
18
Consolidated – EBITDA normalizedConsolidated – EBITDA normalized
Normalized EBITDA impacted by lower legacyvoice revenues and increased wireless retention costs
Normalized EBITDA impacted by lower legacyvoice revenues and increased wireless retention costs
Investing in operational efficiencyInvesting in operational efficiency
Increased restructuring costs reflect an accelerated emphasis on operational efficiency initiatives
Increased restructuring costs reflect an accelerated emphasis on operational efficiency initiatives
19
Total restructuring costs ($M)
2008 2009
190
59
* See forward looking statement caution
2010E*
75
2007
20
Improving overall efficiency and cost competitivenessImproving overall efficiency and cost competitiveness
YE 2008 YE 2009 Change
Total (domestic)1 27,900 25,750 (2,150)
TELUS International 7,950 8,700 750
Black’s Photography 850 850
Total 35,850 35,300 (550)
Breakdown of full time equivalent employeesBreakdown of full time equivalent employees
20
1 Total (domestic) excludes 850 FTE’s from the Black’s Photography acquisition.
Quarterly domestic FTE reductionsQuarterly domestic FTE reductions
Q1-09
500
Q2-09
400
700550
Q3-09 Q4-09
Approx.1,000
2010E*
2,150 domestic FTE reduction in 2009Targeting approx. 1,000 reduction in 2010
2,150 domestic FTE reduction in 2009Targeting approx. 1,000 reduction in 2010
* See forward looking statement caution 21
2009
2,150
($M) 2008 2009 Change
Salaries, benefits* & employee-related expenses
1,944 1,792 (7.8)%
Other operating expenses 1,474 1,485 0.7%
Subtotal opex 3,418 3,277 (4.1)%
DB pension expense (91) 20
Restructuring costs 51 178
Total operating expenses 3,378 3,475 2.9%
22
Wireline segment – annual operating expensesWireline segment – annual operating expenses
Employee-related expenses down 8%Employee-related expenses down 8%
* Excluding defined benefit pension plans
EPS continuity ($)EPS continuity ($)
(0.18)
(0.09) (0.06) (0.01) 0.24
Excl. Tax Adj.
0.90
0.49
0.80Excl. Tax
Adj.
1 Normalized EBITDA excludes restructuring and pension costs.
Per guidance, EPS impacted by debt redemption, restructuring and pension costs
Per guidance, EPS impacted by debt redemption, restructuring and pension costs
Q4/08 reported
Q4/09 reported
2009 debt redemption
Normalized EBITDA1
Restr.costs
Pension costs
Dep & Amort. and other
23
Tax Adj.
0.25Tax Adj.
TELUS refinancing update TELUS refinancing update
In December, successfully issued $1B senior unsecured notes 5.05% 10 year notes, maturing December 2019
Proceeds used to fund partial redemption of notes due in June 2011 Redeemed US$577M (Cdn$607M) of 8% US$1.925B notes Paid $315M to terminate associated cross-currency interest
rate swaps As expected, recorded pre-tax charge of $99M for early partial
redemption and associated swaps After-tax impact of $69M or 22 cents per share
Completed successful $1B debt issue in DecemberCompleted successful $1B debt issue in December
24
Defined Benefit pension assumptions updateDefined Benefit pension assumptions update
25
2009 2010E*
Discount rate 7.25% 5.85%
Long-term expected return 7.25% No change
Pension expense ($M) $18 $28
Pension funding ($M) $179 $143
99% fully funded99% fully funded
* See forward looking statement caution
SummarySummary
Invested strategically in 2009 for enhanced competitiveness and future growth Launched 3G+ wireless network Expanded wireline broadband reach Improved organizational cost efficiency through accelerating OEP
initiatives to address J-curve dilution and recessionary impacts Benefits from strategic investments in 2010*
Leverage 3G+ wireless network to accelerate data and roaming growth Leverage enhanced broadband network and Mediaroom for TV growth Lower cost structure with estimated EBITDA savings of $135M Targeting $400M reduction in capital spending Estimating 50%+ growth in free cash flow due to decrease in capex,
despite peak year of cash taxes
26
Expect significant FCF growth in 2010Expect significant FCF growth in 2010
* See forward looking statement caution
Questions?
investor relations 1-800-667-4871telus.com [email protected]
Appendix Free cash flow – Q4 and 2010E 2010 targets 2010 corporate priorities Definitions
2009Q4
2008Q4C$ millions
Appendix – Q4 free cash flowAppendix – Q4 free cash flow
EBITDA 937 789
Capex (631) (514)
Net Employee Defined Benefit Plans Expense (Recovery) (27) 8
Employer Contributions to Employee Defined Benefit Plans (26) (45)
Interest expense paid (includes income tax interest income)* (192) (296)
Cash Income Taxes and Other (2) 4
Non-cash portion of share-based compensation 14 7
Restructuring payments (net of expense) 30 51
Donations and securitization fees included in other expense (8) (7)
Free Cash Flow (before share-based compensation payment) 95 (3)
Share Based Compensation Paid (34) (32)
Free Cash Flow (per current public guidance methodology) 61 (35)
Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB) (6) -
Dividends (144) (151)
Working Capital and Other (7) 46
Funds Available for debt redemption (96) (140)
A/R Securitization 50 100
Net Issuance (Repayment) of debt 14 47
Increase (Decrease) in cash (32) 7
* Includes debt redemption charge of $99 million. Excluding the impact FCF would increase 4.9% to $64 million.
~(450)
2010E*
Net Cash Interest
$3,500 to 3,700EBITDA
($M)
~(80)Other1:
Free Cash Flow
1 Includes restructuring expense (net of cash payments), share based compensation (net of cash payments) and cash payments related to charitable donations and securitization fees
~(1,700)Capex
865 to 1,065
Net cash tax payment (385) to (425)
Cash pension contribution (in excess of expense) ~(115)
Free Cash Flow (incl. cash pension contribution) 750 to 950
30
Appendix – 2010E free cash flowAppendix – 2010E free cash flow
2009
(513)
$3,491
51
(2,103)
660
(266)
(160)
500
* See forward looking statement caution / Provided December 15, 2009
($B, excl. EPS) 2010 targets* Change
Revenue $9.8 to $10.1 2 to 5%
EBITDA $3.5 to $3.7 0 to 6%
EPS1 $2.90 to $3.30 3 to 17%
Capex Approx $1.7 (19)%
* See forward looking statement caution / Provided December 15, 2009
31
Appendix - 2010 targets*Appendix - 2010 targets*
1 EPS change excludes 55 cents of positive income-tax related adjustments and 22 cents for a loss on early partial redemption of long-term debt in 2009.
Appendix - 2010 TELUS corporate prioritiesAppendix - 2010 TELUS corporate priorities
Capitalize on the full potential of TELUS’ leading wireless and wireline broadband networks
Enhance TELUS’ position in the Small and Medium Business (SMB) market
Deliver on our future friendly brand promise to clients
Continue to improve TELUS’ operational efficiency to effectively compete in the market and fund future growth
Invigorate TELUS Team engagement and continue to drive the philosophy of “Our Customers, Our Business, Our Team, My Responsibility
32
Opportunity to build value fromstrategic investments made in 2009
Opportunity to build value fromstrategic investments made in 2009
EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue
Cash flow: EBITDA less capex
Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, net
employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of
share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting
cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments,
employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans, and cash related to
Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees
Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented
as a percentage of network revenue
TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measuresTELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures
Appendix – definitionsAppendix – definitions