2009 Daily Fundamental Funda.pdf · months, sowing doubt about a U.S. Recovery. The dollar was was...
Transcript of 2009 Daily Fundamental Funda.pdf · months, sowing doubt about a U.S. Recovery. The dollar was was...
Daily Fundamental
Tuesday, September 01,
2009
Market at a Glance
Monsoon Watch
Top Gainers
Exchange Commodity Price Chg %
NCDEX MILD STEEL INGOTS Sep09 23340 1.92
NCDEX CARDAMOM FUTURE Sep09 854.25 1.09
NCDEX TURMERIC FUTURE Sep09 7669 0.87
MCX SILVER FUTURE Sep09 23822 0.12
MCX GOLD FUTURE Oct09 15125 0.03
Top Losers
Exchange Commodity Price Chg %
MCX CRUDE OIL FUT Sep09 3431 -3.41
MCX COPPER FUT (MCX) Nov09 307.15 -3.4
NCDEX GUARSEED JODPR FT Oct09 2115 -3.03
NCDEX GUAR GUM JDHPR FT Oct09 4600 -2.56
NCDEX SOYBEAN A FUTURE Sep09 2249.5 -2.53
♦ Yesterday’s cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal and
neighborhood has become a low pressure area at 0830 hours
IST of today and now lies over west central Bay of Bengal and
adjoining coastal Orissa.
♦ The axis of monsoon trough passes through Bikaner, Deesa,
Jabalpur, Raipur, Center of low pressure area and thence
southeastward to east central Bay of Bengal.
♦ Monsoon was active / vigorous over Orissa, Maharashtra,
Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during
past 24 hours.
♦ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Orissa,
Chhattisgarh, south Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra,
Marathwada, Vidarbha, north Andhra Pradesh, Konkan &
Goa and coastal Karnataka.
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banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed in-dustry source as saying in an article p u b l i s h e d o n S a t u r d a y . The U.S. dollar rose against the yen and euro in light trade on Friday as mixed economic reports from around the world left traders guess-ing about the underlying health of the global economy. Data showing Japanese deflation and unemploy-ment at record levels and a sharp slide in household spending kept the yen under pressure two days ahead of Japan's general election. Euro-pean shares closed at a 10-month closing high, while a rise in oil prices helped lift the Australian dollar to a two-week high, as did expectations that Australian interest rates will rise by year end. But the euro fell along with U.S. stocks, which dipped after data showed U.S. consumer confi-dence fell to its lowest level in four months, sowing doubt about a U.S. Recovery. The dollar was was down about 0.4 percent at $1.4296 against
the Euro. Separate U.S. data showed consumer spending rose as expected in July but incomes remained flat. Trad-ing conditions remained light as they have all week, with many desks thinly staffed for summer vacation, analysts said. Many added that next week should provide a better gauge of the economic situa-tion, with a reports on U.S. manufacturing and service sector activity and employ-ment due.
Today important data which includes ISM manufacturing as well as construction spend-ing will be declared. We ex-pect ISM manufacturing to rise which will be a positive indicator for the U.S econ-omy. This will also lead to gold prices rising. We con-tinue to hold $960 as our target for this week.
.Chicago PMI rises
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said on Monday its index of Midwest business activity rose in August to 50.0 from 43.4 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an August figure of 48.0.
Precious Metals
Events
Economic Calendar
Page 2 Da i ly Fundamenta l
Rise in Chicago PMI is
good news for U.S
economy.
Gold edged back above $950 an ounce on Tuesday, after falling 0.5 percent the previous day on selling by short-term investors due to caution in the face of tumbling Chinese equities and a fall in oil p r i c e s . U.S. gold futures for December delivery were at $952.30 an ounce. On Monday the contract fell $5.30 to $953.50 on the COMEX. The world's largest gold-backed ex-change-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , said holdings stood at 1,061.83 tonnes on Monday, un-changed since Aug. 25.
A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commod-ity derivative trades provoked an-ger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent. The State-owned Assets Supervi-sion and Administration Commis-sion, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enter-prises (SOEs), told six foreign
Date Time Event Survey Prior
09/01/2009 07:30:00 PM US ISM Manufacturing 50.6 48.9
09/01/2009 07:30:00 PM US Pending Home Sales MoM 1.70% 3.60%
09/01/2009 07:30:00 PM US ISM Prices Paid 57.3 55
09/01/2009 07:30:00 PM US Construction Spending MoM -0.10% 0.30%
09/01/2009 07:30:00 PM US Pending Home Sales YoY 1.70% 9.20%
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Base Metals
Energy
Copper dropped the most in two weeks, tracking losses in New York and Shanghai after a plunge in Chinese stocks raised concern about weakening demand from the world’s largest metals consumer.
Copper fell as much as 3.6%, pac-ing a decline in industrial metals on the LME, as it resumed trading after a holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped the most in 15 months yesterday and entered a bear market on concern slower lending growth may derail a rebound in the world’s third-largest economy.
The LME is catching up with the losses we saw in New York and Shanghai yesterday. The markets were overdue for a correction after such an extended rally and this is exacerbating the decline.
The measure may fall another 25% as China’s economic recovery isn’t sustainable.
China stocks fluctuated, following the Shanghai Composite Index’s biggest decline since June 2008, as a drop by commodity producers on lower metal prices countered a gain by banks.
Investors are watching to see what the government’s policies on liquidity will be. China’s econ-omy appears to be recovering, but any sign that the pace of recovery is slowing would leave the market very vulnerable.
There’s some panic in the copper and zinc markets after China’s equities plunged. Expanding in-ventories also raised speculation that zinc production may outpace demand for the metal used to galvanize steel.
Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed by 1.8% to 117,499 tons last week, the highest since intro-duction of the contract in 2007.
Investors and producers are turn-ing cautious due to signs of weaker fundamentals, and have stepped up selling.
Early gains in the dollar also hurt commodities Monday, making them more expensive for foreign buyers. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped $2.78, or 3.8%, to $69.96 a barrel.
Zinc fell to the lowest in more than a week in Shanghai as ex-panding inventories raised specula-tion supply may outpace demand for the metal used to galvanize steel.
There’s some panic in the
copper and zinc markets
after China’s equities
plunged. Expanding
inventories also raised
speculation that zinc
production may outpace
demand.
Page 3 Da i ly Fundamenta l
U.S. crude futures fell further below $70 , after sliding almost 4 percent the curb in Chinese bank lending dented recovery and a pick-up in energy de-mand.
NYMEX delivery was down 10 cents at $69.86 a barrel by, after settling down $2.78 on Monday, as worries about the global economy's health grew after a plunge in Chinese equi-ties. China's key stock index dived 6.74 percent on Monday to a three-month low, prompted by concern that China's government is trying to moderate economic growth and choke off some specula-tion in its stock market by tightening bank lending. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) next meets to consider oil out-put policy on Sept. 9 in Vienna. Bulging global oil inventories remain a major concern for OPEC member states, even as
signs of a possible global eco-nomic recovery grow, and will likely be a topic at the gather-ing, Iran's OPEC governor said on Monday. The Interna-tional Energy Agency (IEA) said in its August report, stocks in developed countries stood at around 61.7 days of forward cover at the end of June, unchanged from the previous month and only just below a peak of 62.4 days at t h e e nd o f Ma r c h . OPEC members have in the past said they would be much more comfortable if stock levels came back to a five-year average of around 52 days and Khatibi reiterated that. U.S. crude inventories likely fell 400,000 barrels last week, a preliminary poll of analysts showed ahead of weekly supply data. The poll showed that analysts think gasoline stocks declined and distillate supplies increased.
The American Petroleum Insti-tute (API), an industry group, will release its inventory report on later on Tuesday, while the U.S. Energy Information Ad-ministration, a government or-ganisation, will release its own data on Wednesday.
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Page 4 Da i ly Fundamenta l
Palm Oil & Mustard / RM Seed Spot prices of mustard seed fell
by Rs.10 per quintal to trade at
Rs.2,710 per quintal in Jaipur
today. Sluggish demand in the
physical market pulled down the
prices. However, traders are
expecting prices to rise in up-
coming days due to poor rainfall
in key mustard seed cultivating
region. Export of rapeseed has
declined to 3.52 lakh tonnes in
April-July 2009 from 3.55 lakh
tonnes during the same period in
2009. Arrivals were reported at
Maize
Soy Bean
India corn futures for June deliv-
ery fell Wednesday on poor ex-
port demand.
Some enquiries from overseas had
supported futures early in the
session but no actual orders had
been signed by the end of the day.
India has exported about 300,000
tonnes of corn so far in 2008/09
marketing year which began in
October. It exported about 3 mil-
lion tonnes of the commodity in
2007/08.Exports are being
pinched by lower-priced offerings
from competitors like the U.S
and Brazil amid the demand
slowdown in major economies.
At close, the most-active June
contract NMZM9 on the Na-
tional Commodity and Deriva-
tives Exchange was 0.53 per-
cent down at 841.5 rupees per
100 kg.
lakh hectares against 91.31 lakh
hectares in 2008-09. Arrivals
were reported at 400 to 500 quin-
tals in Indore Mandi on the
morning of 25 August 2009.
Spot prices of soya bean seed
fell by Rs.15 per quintal to trade
at Rs.2,329 per quintal in In-
dore Mandi today. Demand was
reported to be moderate in the
physical market. However, trad-
ers are expecting prices to re-
main firm as lower rainfall in
August may affect crops in the
oilseeds growing region. Ac-
cording to Agriculture Minis-
try's latest Crop Weather Watch
Report, soya bean sowing for
2009-10 has increased to 93.68
30,000 to 35,000 sacks in Ra-
jasthan on the morning of 25
August 2009. Stock of mustard
seed at NCDEX accredited
warehouses remain at 71,553
tonnes as on 24 August
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Pepper
Chilli & Turmeric
Jeera (Cumin)
Pepper prices traded on a weaker note during yester-day’s trading session. This was on the back of profit booking and speculative sell-off.
Spot prices traded steady at Rs.145-46 levels. In the inter-national market Indonesia was said to have quoted $2700 a tonne (c&f). Indian parity has gone up to $2900 a tonne (c&f). Brazil was re-portedly not aggressive and was offering B Asta at $2500-2600 a tonne (c&f).
In case of Vietnam local prices were reported to be trading at 4 0 0 0 0 D O N G f r o m 36000DONG and Malaysia pepper at 8500MR both the origin trading upbeat.
But prices on Indian comexes trade weak on the back of profit booking, speculative sell-off and revival of rains.
Going further prices are ex-pected to show upbeat move due to tight supply situation as traders don't want to part with their stocks and Vietnamese
farmers are not willing to part with their stocks on expectation of better prices.
Chilli prices traded on a weaker note during yesterday’s trading session. Market opened on a steady note with some upside but after which prices slumped and closed in negative trajec-tory.
This was primarily on the back of revival of rainfall in Andhra Pradesh which is the major producing belt for chilli in In-dia. Spot market reported trade on a positive note due to lim-ited arrivals and crop concern.
Going further markets will be taking cues from further devel-opment in rains.
Turmeric prices traded on a weaker note during yesterday’s trading session. Market opened on a steady note with some upside after which prices slumped and closed in negative trajectory. This was on the back of revival of rains and some profit booking.
On the spot front prices were reported to be trading upbeat on the back of weak supply and domestic demand.
At present futures are trading well below spot prices and we expect markets to trade upbeat to converge with spot prices on expiry.
“ S p i c e s c o u n t e r
recovers on the back of
short covering and on
expectation of revival in
demand”
Page 5 Da i ly Fundamenta l
Jeera prices traded on a weaker note during yesterday’s trading session. This was on the back of profit booking.
Spot market reported arrival of about 7000bags same as previ-ous day and as a result prices were reported to trade on a steady note.
In futures prices opened on a
steady note with some upside but later slumped to closed in negative trajectory.
Overall prices could get sup-ported on the back of forth-coming demand, but export demand is expected to be lim-ited on the back of better crop from middle eastern countries.
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Monsoon - Update
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