2008 Summer Operating Expected Conditions

2008 Summer Operating Expected Conditions

Bulk Power OperationsPower Coordination Center

Bulk Power OperationsPower Coordination Center

TOPICS

•2007 Review

•2008 SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area

Summer Weather Forecast

Peak Demand Forecast

Transmission Overview

Summer Preparations

The information contained in this presentation has been gathered from many sources to provide a general overview of expected summer operating conditions. While the data contained is believed to be accurate, Southern Companies assume no responsibility for its accuracy or any use by other parties.

2007 Review: Summer Forecast

• Summer 2007 Forecast– About 1 degree above normal in SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area.– Hot May, June, early July with Drought relieved by moisture from tropical storms late July and August.

• Tropical Cyclones 2007– Forecast for Big tropical cyclone year. Focus on Atlantic Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico.– 15 tropical cyclones; 9 hurricanes; 4 intense hurricanes.

• Loads Forecast 2007– Projected 2007 SOCO BA Area Peak…44,650 MW… In July?– Adequate Reserves should be available at peak. Calls For Interruptible Customers not expected.

2007 Review: What we actually saw in 2007

• Extreme Heat late summer into fall: August [+30] 13 days above 1000, September [+30], and October [+40].

• No hurricanes in service territory Extreme Drought, no relief in Fall months.

• New Peak load of 48,008 MWs in the SBA, 15 Days above 2006 Peak.

Set new peak on 8/22/07 48,008

MW

2007 Review: Peak Day

2007 SBA Peak Data(includes Dalton Utilities, MEAG, GTC ,SOCO)

Interchange -1478

Interchange -414

Interchange +250 Duke-50 SCEG+100 SCPSA

Interchange+3198

48,008 MW 8/22/07 @ 15:19

VACAR

TVA

ENTERGY

FLORIDASBA Load (Inst.) 48,008 MW

Net Interchange 1,585 MW

Other (Dynamic Schedules,Freq. Bias, etc) 47 MW

SBA Net Output @ Peak 49,640 MW

(Not for billing purposes)

2007 Review: Peak Day

2007 Review: Peak Day

(Not for billing purposes)

 Generation

Output at Peak Reserves

Base Generation 36634 1301

     

FP&PA 0 185

   

Hydro 2223 2037

CT's 1851 1940

   

IPP's 11075

 

Total 51783 5463

33,998

39,81440,598

38,296

40,88740,196

42,266

44,167 44,487

48,008

37,359

34,781 35,415

30,538

101

94

93

94

90

92

95

92

96

10099

95

9192

18,000

23,000

28,000

33,000

38,000

43,000

48,000

53,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103Instantaneous Peak Temp

- Historical Peak DataTemperatureDemand

8/30 8/18 7/22 7/28 6/24 8/12 8/17 7/12 7/18 8/26 7/14 7/26 8/7 8/22

(Not for billing purposes)

45,96446,578 47,008 47,155

46,08445,420

46,83246,343

44,903

48,008

46,28147,318

44,487

47,628

45,857

47,682

95

101

96

94

99

99

101

95

99

96

99

97

100 99

96

96

18,000

23,000

28,000

33,000

38,000

43,000

48,000

53,000

2006 6-Aug

7-Aug

8-Aug

9-Aug

10-Aug

11-Aug

13-Aug

14-Aug

15-Aug

16-Aug

17-Aug

20-Aug

21-Aug

22-Aug

23-Aug

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103Instantaneous Peak Temp

- 15 Days above 2006 PeakTemperatureDemand

(Not for billing purposes)

Hrs. SBA Load > 40,000 MW

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

# of Hours

264

123

27

290

Lots of hours at high loads...

(Not for billing purposes)

SBA Loads Overview

Highest Peak Loads for the SBA

39,91337,869

33,081 29,196

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2006 2007 2008

Average of Daily Peak Loads for the SBA

31,86429,409

26,744 26,333

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

2006 2007 2008

Sum of Hourly Loads for the SBA(Integrated data. Not metered values)

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mill

ions

of M

WH

s2006 2007 2008

2008 SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area Summer Weather Forecast

“The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.” Patrick Young

1. Interior Southeast Drought Continues but with “likely improvement” expected.

2. Summer thunderstorm regime and tropical rains should ease drought.

3. Climate Impact Company expects subtropical/tropical rainfall events to prevent drought intensification this summer season.

2008 Drought Outlook

1. Lack of super-dry regime leading into summer season.

2. Increasing summer thunderstorms and tropical moisture will suppress summer heat.

Southern Company APR-SEP 2008

Climate Parameter: System Precipitation

1. Forecast considerably less hot than 2007.

2. Summer 2008 extreme heat regime rated “near normal” as opposed to record heat last year.

Southern Company Extreme Heat

# of Days Forecast above 940

June

3

8

17

3 3

11

0

5

10

15

20

ATL BHM MGM# o

f d

ays a

bo

ve 9

4 d

eg 2007

2008

July

1 26

4 3

11

0

5

10

15

ATL BHM MGM

# o

f d

ays

abo

ve 9

4 d

eg

August

1924 24

2 410

0

10

20

30

ATL BHM MGM

# o

f d

ays

abo

ve 9

4 d

eg

• Slightly warmer-than-normal summer.

• Warmest month compared to normal is June. July/August close to normal.

• Much different from last summer, lacking month-to-month extremes and lack of (record) heat.

• Key is rainfall that suppresses heat and eases affect of drought on the temperature pattern.

• If subtropical/tropical rainfall events fail to occur, a hotter summer is likely.

• Risk of affects from tropical cyclones at above normal risk this year.

2008 Summer Forecast Summary

Weather Terminology (en Español )

Neutral Phase ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation) Indicates periods of low westerly shear across the North Atlantic tropics enhancing tropical cyclone development and intensification.

The leading indicator of tropical cyclone activity is the Neutral ENSO phase.

Cyclones is a catch-all term for all tracked tropical storms.

El Nino (ENSO warm phase) Pacific warmer, T-showers heat upper atmosphere, increased westerly shear in Atlantic tropics.

Current cycle 1995 to 2020. Warmer Atlantic. Absent El

Nino, more storms likely.

La Nina (ENSO cold phase) Pacific cooler, fewer T-showers, less shear in Atlantic tropics.

Western shear

Stronger westerly winds at upper atmospheric levels can shear the tops from developing storms.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

Cyclones

Hurricanes

Intense Hur.

Annual Tropical Activity during 1995-2007(2005 was Neutral ENSO)

• Probability of a major hurricane striking the Gulf and East Coast is lowering from above normal to slightly above normal.

• Probability of AL/GA being affected by a tropical cyclone is above normal. Risk of major hurricane lowers.

• Forecast trend is toward normal.

• Key #1: Risk of weak El Nino developing has increased late summer/early autumn.

• Key#2: Weak El Nino increases upper shear limiting seasonal activity amount (toward long-term normal). The long-term normal is 11 storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes.

2008 Storm Forecast

“You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows.” Bob Dylan

Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2008

Year Observed

Tropical

Cyclones

Forecast

Tropical

Cyclones

Observed

Hurricanes

Forecast

Hurricanes

Observed

Intense

Hurricanes

Forecast

Intense

Hurricanes

1999 12 11 8 7 5 4

2000 14 12 8 6 3 3

2001 15 13 9 8 4 4

2002 12 8 4 4 2 1

2003 16 12 7 6 3 2

2004 15 14 9 7 6 2

2005 27 13 15 8 7 3

2006 9 16 5 9 2 4

2007 15 14 6 8 2 5

2008 13 7 3

Hurricane Season Forecast versus Actual

• Summer 2008 Forecast– Slightly warmer than normal in Southern Balancing Authority Area.– Warmest month compared to normal is June. July/August close to normal.– Drought relieved by summertime thunderstorm regime and eventually affects from

tropical cyclones.

• Tropical Cyclones 2008– La Nina has ended and risk of weak El Nino late summer/early autumn has

increased. Forecast exceeds all historical climatology.– 13 tropical cyclones; 7 hurricanes; 3 intense hurricanes.– Early season activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Bulk of hurricanes during August –

September period.

2008 Summer Weather Forecast Highlights

46,308 MW

Based On The Current Summer 2008 Weather Forecast & 950 F

Augustearly

The Projected 2008 Summer Peak Demand

for the Southern Balancing Authority Area Is: :

To occur on :

2008 SBA Peak Demand Forecast

2008 Total Transfer Capability (TTC) / ATC Imports(Southern Company Ownership Share. Posted values as of 5-6-08)

June: 2073 / 1218July: 2013 / 1158August: 1700 / 845

June: 1774 / 209July: 1766 / 151August: 2026 / 511

June: 1168 / 358July: 1212 / 374August: 1107 / 338

June: 620 / 427July: 620 / 427August: 620 / 427

Southern Company

VACAR

TVA

ENTERGY

FLORIDA

(units in MW)

New Homeland-Kettle Creek 230 kV TL

Reconstruct tie line between Gulf and Progress Energy (FPC)

Sinai-Woodruff 115 kV (new tie line)

Replaces Scholz-Wooduff 115 kV

New Sinai Cemetery 230/115 kV transformer

Continued Improvements (~$400-500 million/year)

Note: Conasauga – Bradley (TVA) 500 kV is the new tie line between Georgia and TVA Replaces Conasauga -Sequoyah 500 KV tie line

2008 Notable Transmission Additions

• Interruptible Service Summit– Scheduled for May 27 to ensure Readiness for

Summer.

• Reliability Alert Simulation Exercise:– Held April 30 to ensure Readiness for Summer.– Communication Systems and Backups are tested.– PCC Initiates and Conducts with Plants, TCC’s, Fleet

Ops, and Neighboring Control Areas.

• Simulation Includes:– Loss Of Normal Communication Systems.– Load Shed Simulation.

2008 Summer Preparations

• Operator Training– Reliability Desk Meeting was held on April 28.– Nuclear Grid Training, Southeastern Sub-region Black

Start, Bugout drills, OASIS training.– 32+ hours of emergency training.

• Drought Preparations– Arrangements w/Regulatory Agencies in place, if

needed.– Reduced Hydro considered in Modeling Analysis.

• Tool Enhancements– New check-out tool in place.

• OPCO Critical Maintenance

2008 Summer Preparations (cont’d)

– Loads will be large, but handled proficiently.• Projected 2008 SBA Peak…46,308 MW… In August?• Operators monitor the system continuously and are prepared to respond with

appropriate operating procedures.

– Interfaces are heavily utilized and will be busy.• Occasional Import reductions possible, especially if significant outages or fuel

(dispatch) volatility. • Export capability is available if market develops.

– Adequate Reserves should be available at peak.• Assuming 3% EFOR and hydro available. 950 day.• Prolonged drought may limit hydro and may lead to temperature limits at some

plants. • Purchases expected to supplement designated resources.• Calls For Interruptible Customers not expected.

Summary: 2008 Summer Preparations

QUESTIONS???