2010 Summer Operating

Expected Conditions

2010 Summer Operating

Expected Conditions

Bulk Power Operations

Power Coordination Center

Bulk Power Operations

Power Coordination Center

TOPICS

•2009 Review

•2010 SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area

Summer Weather Forecast

Peak Demand Forecast

Transmission Overview

Summer Preparations

The information contained in this presentation has been gathered from many

sources to provide a general overview of expected summer operating conditions.

While the data contained is believed to be accurate, Southern Companies assume

no responsibility for its accuracy or any use by other parties.

Review: 2009 Summer Forecast

• Summer 2009 Forecast– Not an abnormally hot summer in the Balancing Area (BA) .

– Slightly above normal in May and June, normal in July. August drier than June and July.

Tropical Cyclones 2009

– Outer Atlantic stays cool, limits hurricanes, below normal risk.

– 12 tropical cyclones; 6 hurricanes; 2 intense hurricanes.

– Bulk of hurricanes stay in Atlantic

• Loads Forecast 2009

– Projected 2009 SOCO BA Area Peak…45,842 MW… In August ?

– Adequate Reserves should be available at peak. Calls For Interruptible Customers not expected.

Review: What we actually saw in 2009

• Normal temperatures past summer

• Hurricanes remained mostly in the Atlantic

• Peak load of 42,846 MWs in the SBA

2009 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

SBA All-Time Peak on 8/22/07 48,008 MW

SBA All-Time Winter Peak on 1/11/10 43,874 MW

• Instantaneous Peak @15:14 42,846 MW

• Integrated Peak @16:00 42,696 MW

• SOCO Territorial Peak 34,768 MW

(w/o. OPC,MEAG,Dalton)

2009 Peak on June 23 w/ 42,846 MW

2009 SBA Peak Data(includes Dalton Utilities, MEAG, GTC ,SOCO)

Interchange

526

Interchange

-29 Interchange

Duke -1173

SCEG 184

SCPSA -236

Interchange

3333

42,746 MW 6/23/09 @ 15:14

VACAR

TVA

ENTERGY

FLORIDASBA Load (Inst.) 42,746 MW

Net Interchange 1,294 MW

Other (Dynamic Schedules,

Freq. Bias, etc) 982 MW

SBA Net Output @ Peak 46,315 MW

2009 Review: Peak Day

2009 Review: Peak Day Resource

Status Summary

Generation MW

Southern Generation CT’s Off-line 2609

Other Generation Owner in SBA Off-line 5707

35,415

39,81440,887

40,196

42,266

44,167 44,487

48,008

46,102

42,846

38,296

40,598

37,359 95

94

101

94

9394

90

95

92

99

9695

91

18,000

23,000

28,000

33,000

38,000

43,000

48,000

53,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103Instantaneous Peak Temp

- Historical Peak Data

TemperatureDemand

7/28 6/24 8/12 8/17 7/12 7/18 8/26 7/14 7/26 8/7 8/22 8/6 6/23

Hrs. SBA Load > 40,000 MW

264

123

27

290

Fewer hours at high loads in 2009...

178

11 days

29 days

48 days

56 days

40 days

8320 days

SBA Loads Overview

33,542 32,800

27,65625,512

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Average of Daily Peak Loads for the SBA

2008 2009 2010

14

16

18

20

22

24

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Millio

ns o

f M

WH

s

Sum of Hourly Loads for the SBA(Integrated data. Not metered values)

2008 2009 2010

2010 SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area

Summer Climate Forecast

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we

get.”

Mark Twain

2010 Soil Moisture Outlook

Southeast soil moisture forecast…End of May/July soil moisture forecast = Normal End of June/August soil moisture forecast = Wetter

Climate Parameter: System Precipitation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10

% o

f 30

-Yr

No

rma

l

Southern Company System Summer 2010 Outlook

ATL

BHM

MCN

MGM

MOB

SYS

Despite current dryness a wet pattern is forecast

Climate Parameters – System Temperature

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10

Te

mp

era

ture

An

om

aly

(D

eg

F)

Southern Company System Summer 2010 Outlook

ATL

BHM

MCN

MGM

MOB

SYS

Warmest May/June, coolest August

2010 Summer Forecast Summary

Slightly warmer than normal start to warm season (May/June) for

Southern Company.

Lengthy periods of excessive heat not indicated.

A wetter than normal summer is expected.

August is wet and slightly cooler than normal.

Impacts – direct or nearby – of tropical cyclones likely.

• Warmest anomalies on

record - hurricane region…El Nino still present…

Tropical Pacific & Atlantic…Tropical Pacific & Atlantic…

CIC 2010 Tropical Cyclones

2010 Projected Tracks for Aug/Sept/Oct

2010 Projected Tracks for Aug/Sept/Oct

2010 Projected Tracks for Aug/Sept/Oct

2010 Projected Tracks for Aug/Sept/Oct

Year Observed

Tropical

Cyclones

Forecast

Tropical

Cyclones

Observed

Hurricanes

Forecast

Hurricanes

Observed

Intense

Hurricanes

Forecast

Intense

Hurricanes

2001 15 13 9 8 4 4

2002 12 8 4 4 2 1

2003 16 12 7 6 3 2

2004 15 14 9 7 6 2

2005 27 13 15 8 7 3

2006 9 16 5 9 2 4

2007 15 14 6 8 2 5

2008 16 13 8 7 3 3

2009 11 12 3 6 2 2

2010 (Long Term

Normal 11)17 (Long Term

Normal 6)10 (Long Term

Normal 3)5

Hurricane Season Actual versus Forecast

Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2010

• A big year! One of 5 most active since 1950.

• 2 hurricane threats to Gulf; major hurricanes

threaten East Coast.

• Southern Company will be affected either

directly or indirectly with heavy rain/flooding

the primary issue.

• Primary threat time is September and October

• Summer 2010 Forecast

– Slightly warmer than normal start to season, excessive heat not indicated..

– Trending wetter as summer begins, a dry summer is not expected.

– August is wet and slightly cooler than normal.

• Tropical Cyclones 2010

– A big year ! One of the 5 most active since 1950.

– 17 tropical cyclones; 10 hurricanes; 5 intense hurricanes.

– 2 hurricanes threat to Gulf.

– Primary threat time is Sept/Oct..

2010 Summer Weather Forecast Highlights

44,325 MW

Based On The Current Summer 2010 Weather Forecast & 950 F

The Projected 2010 Summer Peak Demand

for the Southern Balancing Authority Area Is: :

To occur on :

2010 SBA Peak Demand Forecast

Jack McDonough –

Smyrna 230 kV line

Sinai Cemetery (fall

2010) and Laguna

Beach (in service)

230 kV Reactors

Continued Improvements

2010 Notable Transmission Additions

East Pelham 230/115 kV

400 MVA substation

Brentwood

230/115 kV Auto

#2

Silverhill

series bus tie

breaker

Logtown

230/115 kV

400 MVA

Auto (old 246

MVA auto to

Carriere for

2011

operation)

Klondike – Ola 230

kV line

Thomson – Warthen 500 kV

line and associated Augusta

area projects

2010 Total Transfer Capability (TTC) / ATC Imports

(Southern Company Ownership Share. Posted values as of 5-06-10)

June: 1900 / 1177

July: 2093 / 1367

August: 1403 / 680

June: 1921 / 588

July: 2071 / 738

August: 1530 / 197June: 1184 / 435

July: 1132 / 384

August: 1282 / 533

June: 621 / 427

July: 621 / 427

August: 621 / 427

Southern Company

VACAR

TVA

ENTERGY

FLORIDA

(units in MW)

• Interruptible Service Summit– Held May 11 to ensure Readiness for Summer.

• Energy Alert Simulation Exercise:– May 12 to ensure Readiness for Summer.

– Communication Systems and Processes are tested.

– PCC Initiates and Conducts with Plants, TCC’s, Fleet Ops, and Neighboring Control Areas.

– Test Load Shed Plans

• Hurricane Conference Call Drill in May using Alert Find.

2010 Summer Preparations

• Operator Training– Reliability Desk Meeting on May 17.

– Balancing Desk Meeting on May 10.

– Bugout drills( 2 during Spring ), OASIS training.

– 32+ hours of emergency training

• Tool Enhancements– Visibility to Fleet Admiral Data on EMS

portal

– Unit Commitment Viewer on EMS portal

– Improved Reserves Calculation on EMS

– New Must Run Apps

– Contingency Sensitivity in OPNA

• OPCO Critical Maintenance

2010 Summer Preparations (cont’d)

– Load Factor is beginning to recover.• Projected 2010 SBA Peak…44,325 MW… In July?

• Operators monitor the system continuously and are prepared to respond with appropriate operating procedures.

– Interfaces are heavily utilized and will be busy.• Occasional Import reductions possible, especially if significant outages or fuel

(dispatch) volatility.

• Export capability is available if market develops.

– Adequate Reserves should be available at peak.• Assuming 4.5% EFOR and hydro available. 950 day.

• Local purchases expected to supplement designated resources.

• Calls For Interruptible Customers not expected.

• Fuel cost shifts could result in challenges (abnormal generation patterns?)

Summary of 2010 Summer Preparations

QUESTIONS???