1224691022 kotler mm_13e_basic_04
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Conducting Marketing Research and
Forecasting Demand
Marketing Management, 13th ed
4
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Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-2
Chapter Questions
• What constitutes good marketing research?
• What are good metrics for measuring marketing productivity?
• How can marketers assess their return on investment of marketing expenditures?
• How can companies more accurately measure and forecast demand?
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Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 4-3
What is Marketing Research?
Marketing research is the systematic design, collection, analysis, and
reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing
the company.
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Types of Marketing Research Firms
• Syndicated service
• Custom
• Specialty-line
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The Marketing Research Process
• Define the problem• Develop research plan• Collect information• Analyze information• Present findings• Make decision
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Step 1: Define the Problem
• Define the problem
• Specify decision alternatives
• State research objectives
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Step 2: Develop the Research Plan
• Data sources• Research approach• Research instruments• Sampling plan• Contact methods
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Research Approaches
• Observation• Ethnographic• Focus group• Survey• Behavioral data• Experimentation
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Research Instruments
• Questionnaires
• Qualitative Measures
• Technological Devices
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Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
• Ensure questions are free of bias
• Make questions simple• Make questions specific• Avoid jargon• Avoid sophisticated
words• Avoid ambiguous words
• Avoid negatives• Avoid hypotheticals• Avoid words that could
be misheard• Use response bands• Use mutually exclusive
categories• Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions
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Question Types - Dichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact American Airlines?
Yes No
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Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
No one
Spouse
Spouse and children
Children only
Business associates/friends/relatives
An organized tour group
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Question Types – Likert Scale
Indicate your level of agreement with the following statement: Small airlines generally give better service than large ones.
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Agree
Strongly agree
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Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…….Small
Experienced………………….….Inexperienced
Modern……………………….…..Old-fashioned
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Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
Extremely important
Very important
Somewhat important
Not very important
Not at all important
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Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
Excellent
Very good
Good
Fair
Poor
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Question Types –Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on American Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?
Definitely buy
Probably buy
Not sure
Probably not buy
Definitely not buy
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Question Types –Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?
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Question Types –Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________
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Question Types –Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________.
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Question Types –Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings.” Now complete the story. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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Question Types –Picture (Empty Balloons)
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Qualitative Measures
• Word association
• Projective techniques
• Visualization
• Brand personification
• Laddering
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Technological Devices
• Galvanometers
• Tachistoscope
• Eye cameras
• Audiometers
• GPS
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Sampling Plan
• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
• Sample size: How many people should be surveyed?
• Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen?
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Table 4.2 Types of Samples
Probability Samples• Simple random• Stratified random• Cluster
Nonprobability Samples• Convenience• Judgment• Quota
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Contact Methods
• Mail questionnaire
• Telephone interview
• Personal interview
• Online interview
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Pros and Cons of Online Research
Advantages• Inexpensive• Fast• Accuracy of data,
even for sensitive questions
• Versatility
Disadvantages• Small samples• Skewed samples• Technological
problems • Inconsistencies
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What is a Marketing Decision Support System
(MDSS)?
A marketing decision support system is a coordinated collection of data, systems, tools, and techniques with supporting hardware and software by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action.
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Barriers Limiting the Use of Marketing Research
• A narrow conception of the research
• Uneven caliber of researchers
• Poor framing of the problem
• Late and occasionally erroneous findings
• Personality and presentational differences
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Table 4.3 Characteristics of Good Marketing Research
• Scientific method• Research creativity• Multiple methods• Interdependence• Value and cost of information• Healthy skepticism• Ethical marketing
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What are Marketing Metrics?
Marketing metrics are the set of measures that helps marketers quantify, compare, and interpret
marketing performance.
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Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics
External• Awareness• Market share• Relative price• Number of complaints• Customer satisfaction• Distribution• Total number of
customers• Loyalty
Internal• Awareness of goals• Commitment to goals• Active support• Resource adequacy• Staffing levels• Desire to learn• Willingness to change• Freedom to fail• Autonomy
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What is Marketing-Mix Modeling?
Marketing-mix models analyze data from a variety of sources, such as
retailer scanner data, company shipment data, pricing, media, and
promotion spending data, to understand more precisely the effects
of specific marketing activities.
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Marketing Dashboards
• A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing year after year on customer-based measures.
• A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of various constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company’s performance including employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.
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Table 4.5 Sample Customer-Performance Scorecard Measures
• % of new customers to average #• % of lost customers to average #• % of win-back customers to average #• % of customers in various levels of satisfaction• % of customers who would repurchase• % of target market members with brand recall• % of customers who say brand is most
preferred
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Common Measurement Paths
• Customer metrics pathway
• Unit metrics pathway
• Cash-flow metrics pathway
• Brand metrics pathway
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The Measures of Market Demand
• Potential market
• Available market
• Target market
• Penetrated market
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Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
• Market demand
• Market forecast
• Market potential
• Company demand
• Company sales forecast
• Company sales potential
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How Can We Estimate Current Demand?
• Total market potential
• Area market potential• Market buildup method• Multiple-factor index method
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Estimating Future Demand
• Survey of Buyers’ Intentions
• Composite of Sales Force Opinions
• Expert Opinion
• Past-Sales Analysis
• Market-Test Method