110916 Iran US IsraeliPerspII

7/31/2019 110916 Iran US IsraeliPerspII

1/102


2/102


3/102


4/102


5/102


6/102


7/102


8/102


9/102


10/102


11/102


12/102


13/102


14/102


15/102


16/102


17/102


18/102


19/102


20/102


21/102


22/102


23/102


24/102


25/102


26/102


27/102


28/102


29/102


30/102


31/102


32/102


33/102


34/102


35/102


36/102


37/102


38/102


39/102


40/102


41/102


42/102


43/102


44/102


45/102


46/102


47/102


48/102


49/102


50/102


51/102


52/102


53/102


54/102


55/102


56/102


57/102


58/102


59/102


60/102


61/102


62/102


63/102


64/102


65/102


66/102


67/102


68/102


69/102


70/102


71/102


72/102


73/102


74/102


75/102


76/102


77/102


78/102


79/102


80/102


81/102


82/102


83/102


84/102


85/102


86/102


87/102


88/102


89/102


90/102


91/102


92/102


93/102


94/102


95/102

Chemical & Biological Options


96/102

Q 50 for Some Types of BW -


97/102

Open-Air Deployment Plague (liquid): 3.5-4.5 liter/sq.km Tularemia (dry): 3.0-4.0 kg/sq.km Anthrax (dry, old version): 15-20 kg/sq.km Anthrax (dry, new version): 4.5-5.0 kg/sq.km

Anthrax (liquid): 5.0-5.5 liter/sq.km Brucellosis (dry): 3.5-4.5 kg/sq.km Glanders/Melioidosis (liquid): 4.5-5.5 liter/sq.km

Smallpox (liquid): 3.5-4.0 liter/sq.km Marburg (dry): less than 1.0 kg/sq.km

New Types of Biological Weapons


98/102

Binary biological weapons that use two safe to handle elements that can be assembled before use.This could be a virus and helper virus like Hepatitis D or a bacterial virulence plasmid like E. coli,plague, Anthrax, and dysentery.

Designer genes and life forms, which could include synthetic genes and gene networks, syntheticviruses, and synthetic organisms. These weapons include DNA shuffling, synthetic forms of the flu which killed more people in 1918 than died in all of World War I and which still kills about 30,000Americans a year and synthetic microorganisms.

"Gene therapy" weapons that use transforming viruses or similar DNA vectors carrying Trojanhorse genes (retrovirus, adenovirus, poxvirus, HSV-1). Such weapons can produce single individual(somatic cell) or inheritable (germline) changes. It can also remove immunities and wound healingcapabilities.

Stealth viruses can be transforming or conditionally inducible. They exploit the fact that humansnormally carry a substantial viral load, and examples are the herpes virus, cytomegalovirus,Epstein-Barr, and SV40 contamination which are normally dormant or limited in infect but can betransformed into far more lethal diseases. They can be introduced over years and then used toblackmail a population.

Host-swapping diseases: Viral parasites normally have narrow host ranges and develop anevolutionary equilibrium with their hosts. Disruption of this equilibrium normally produces noresults, but it can be extremely lethal. Natural examples include AIDS, Hantavirus, Marburg, andEbola. Tailoring the disruption for attack purposes can produce weapons that are extremely lethaland for which there is no treatment. A tailored disease like AIDS could combine serious initiallethality with crippling long-term effects lasting decades.

Designer diseases involve using molecular biology to create the disease first and then constructing apathogen to produce it. It could eliminate immunity, target normally dormant genes, or instructcells to commit suicide. Apoptosis is programmed cell death, and specific apoptosis can be used tokill any mix of cells.


99/102

Soviet RBK-type Cluster Bomb for CBR Weapons

Source: Ken Alibeck


100/102


101/102

State Actor Covert Bioterrorism, Suitcase Nuclear

Bypasses defenses.

Plausible deniability?

Exploits special vulnerability of one bomb states.

Psychological and political impacts as important as direct killing

effects. False flag and proxy options clear.

Buying time may limit risk of retaliation.

Allows to exploit slow kill nature of biological strikes. Achieve line source effects

Covert forces in place can restrike or escalate.

Target potentially faces major weakening of conventionalcapabilities without ability to counter-escalate.

Possible Terrorist/Covert/Irregular


102/102

Deployment of Biological Weapons Use of infected vectors (mosquitoes, fleas, lice, etc.)

Contamination of food and water supplies

Contamination of various articles (letters, books, surfaces,etc.)

Use of different aerosolizing devices and approaches tocontaminate inner spaces of various buildings (line andpoint sources)

Use of different aerosolizing devices and approaches foropen-air dissemination (line and point sources)

Inner- and outer-space explosive dissemination includingsuicide bombers

T i t/S b t g th d f i f ti g d li t k

110916 Iran US IsraeliPerspII

Documents

Transcript of 110916 Iran US IsraeliPerspII