U.S IRAN Conflict In Future Aspect

Presenters:

Aleem ur Rehman : Introduction of Iran and U.S

Muhammad Bilal : Sanctions on Iran

Aleem ur Rehman : Conclusion

1

Hassan Raza Aslam : Past of U.S Iran conflict 2

5

3

4

Asad Ishaq : Present and Future of the Issue

• Iran:

• Iran … Formerly known as Persia.

• Officially Islamic Republic of Iran …. 1980.

• Located in Western Asia.• Area of 1,648,195 km2.• Second-largest Economy

in the Middle East.• 18th-largest Nation in the

world.

•Iran:• Iran, a country

slightly larger than Alaska.

• bordering the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf in the south and the Caspian Sea in the north.

• Neighboring Countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

• Iran:

• GDP - US$484 billion in 2012

• Iran ranks second in the world in natural gas reserves and third in oil reserves.

• Second largest OPEC oil producer; output averaged about 4 million barrels per day.

• Iran:

• 31 provinces• Population

77,176,930• Currency

Riyal• Capital

Tehran

• U.S Iran Location:

• Distance B/w Iran & U.S

• 10799.1 km• 6710.29 miles

• United states of America:

• Consisting of 50 states, 16 territories, and a federal district. The 48 contiguous states.

• Capital Washington, D.C

• Area of 9,826,675 km2• world's largest national

economy• GDP in 2013 of $16.7

trillion

•America:

• America:

• GDP $15.68 trillion.• Population 313.9

million• Currency USA Dollar

$• Largest city is New

York.• United States is the

fourth-largest country by total area

• Third largest by population

US-Iran ConflictNuclear conflictMilitary conflictStrait of Hormuz Issue Iran’s role in TerrorismHacked Drone Issue

•Nuclear Conflict•Main issue between US and Iran.• Program was launched in 1950 with the help of US.•1979: international nuclear cooperation was cut off.• Program was disbanded by Ayatollah Ruhollah • US demand to stop uranium enrichment. Unacceptable by Iranians.

•Cont…• Dec 1984 With the aid of China, Iran opens a nuclear research center in Isfahan.• Iran continued work on its program till 2010.• In 2010 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran is now a "nuclear state”.• Iran’s perspective is to produce energy from Nuclear programme. • US called it to an attempt to build a nuclear weapon.

•Military Conflict• 1st military conflict was seen in 1988, Iran laid mines against U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf & the United States destroyed Iranian oil platforms in response.• Armed conflict between the United States and Iran is higher now than at any point since 1988.• Risk will only increase over the coming year as Iran’s nuclear program continues to develop.

•Military conflict cont…

• nuclear scientist was assassinated after a motorcyclist placed a bomb under his car, Iran accused the United States of being behind the killing.• The prospect of an Israeli strike against Iran to stop its nuclear program has risen as Iran has continued its nuclear production and moved uranium enrichment underground.• Joint Military training of US and Israel is also a great concern for Iran.

•Strait of Hormuz Issue

• The Strait of Hormuz is the primary maritime waterway through which some 40 percent of the Western world's oil supplies are shipped.

• At its narrowest, the strait is 21 nautical miles (39 km) wide.

•Strait of Hormuz

•Conti….• War in 1980s b/w Iran and Iraq happened due to the Strait of Hormuz.• And if Iran plans to block it now, there could be a military strike from USA on Iran.• If Iran block strait of Hormuz, the West World’s economy will tremble. Fuel price will raise at record level.• Concern for Iran is the movement of foreign planes and warships.• If this continues Iran may think for this option.

• Iran’s role in Terrorism • The United States regard Iran as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.

•US views• US says, “A nuclear Iran would feel

empowered to conduct more terrorist attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets.”

• Will provide more lethal assistance to Hezbollah and Palestinian militant groups.

•  and will give the Quds Force greater freedom to support terrorist groups across the Middle East.

• Iran’s Claim•  Iran has been one of the main victims of terrorism and is playing a key role in the global campaign against terrorism.•According to Iranian resources 17,000 Iranian have fallen victim to terrorism.•A hurdle between their relation 

• Iran Hacked US Spy Drone• On 4 December 2011, an American drone RQ-170 sentinel captured by Iran near Kashmar.• Drone was brought down by Cyber warfare unit.• aircraft was detected in Iranian airspace some 225 km from the border with Afghanistan.• US denied this claim first.• In, December 2011 US official said that it was a US drone.

•RQ-170 Sentinel Drone

•Conti….• Dec 9, 2011  Iran lodged a formal complaint to the UN security council over the violating its airspace. • On 12 December 2011, U.S. administration asked Iran to return the captured U.S. drone.• Next day Iranian defense minister dismissed the request and said ‘ instead of apologizing you are asking for the drone back.• Iran has presented Russia with a gift of an exact copy of an advanced US spy drone.• Issue raised again

Current Status of IRAN

•Previous Policy of Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad

• Nationalization of Institutions

• Maintaining Nuclear Program

• Aggressive Foreign Policy

• Iranian Presidential Election 2013Beginning of new chapter

• Presidential Elections were held on 14th June 2013•Hassan Rauhani won the Elections to become the 7th Presedent of Iran.•The wining of the man having flexible intentions for Forign Policy and to resolve conflict is the indication of changed mindset in the Iranian Society.

•Hassan Rohani• Cancelled the Censorship of Internet.• Flexibility in the dialogs with the P5+1• He had a dialog with US President on 28th Sep 2013.It was the first time since 1979 when Head of both the countries had a contact.

•Current Challenges to New Establishment of Iran

• Economic Strangulation and Foreign Policy• Inflation rate up to 40%• Iran’s Oil Revenue remained Half Due to sanctions• More than $60Billion are restricted to access in Chinese and

Indian Banks due to sanctions.

In a statement at Iranian National Security Council Hassan Rohani Said that:

“The Primary Objective of the Next Iranian Government Should be to build confidence and trust with International Community and resolve domestic economic crises, This can only be achieved by removing the tensions with all nations particularly our neighbors and lift the sanctions”

•Developments• Iran’s new cabinet succeeded to negotiate with P5+1 and avoided another series of sanctions.• Iran agreed to give IAEA access to the two key nuclear sites.• Iran successfully convinced Chinese and Indian Governments to continue their Oil Trade with Iran.

•Hurdles for Improving Relations•The  Zionist ideology is fearful about

Iran-US relation ship and actively playing its role in creating tensions and trigger conflict between two countries.• Iran’s domestic revolutionary groups are also worried of improving relations.Iran’s Government is optimistic to resolve the

tensions and mistrust and believes that People’s support is vital and they will consider to never create mistrust in their public and to have optimum popularity.

•Future of US-Iran Relations

Iran’s approach for US has been changed after new Government took over.

Common National Interests of Iran and US

Arab terrorist(Al-Qaida) in Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Jordan.

To stop Drug trade.To introduce Democracy in the Middle-East.

For Regional security and stability US needs Iran’s support.

The impact of u.s Sanctions on Iran economics and social assessment

•PURPOSE AND HISTORY OF IRANIAN SANCTION

1. 1970s: Islamic revolution and hostage crisis.

2. 1980s: iran-iraq war reduction oil production.

3. 2000s: nuclear development.

•u.S sanction on iran

• US sanctions against Iran refer to economic, trade, scientific and military.

• Since the mid of 1990 US sanction have focused on its nuclear program.

• The US imposed sanction of 1995 bans aviation companies from selling aircraft and repair parts to Iranian airlines.

• The us sanction prohibit almost all trade with iran,including the export of medical agriculture, and equipment.

•u.S sanction on iran

1. The US expended sanction to target companies that aid Iran’ oil and petrochemical.

2. In November 2011 the us , uk and Canada announced more bilateral sanction on Iran.

•u.S sanction on iran

•The US also banned the sale of dual use items to Iran.• In 2010 he banned some import of Iranian foodstuff and carpets.

•Before the Iran oil sanction

•Us sanction on oil

• In 2010 us sanction on oil production & export.

•Effect of sanction on iran

• The sanction bring difficulties to Iran $483 billion oil, dominated economy•2006—2007 84.9 %•2007—2008 86.5 %•2008—2009 85.5 %•2009—2010 79.8 %•2011—2012 78.9 %

•Effect of sanction on iran

•Sanction are also effect on Iranian economy.

•Sanction are also effect on the production of oil.•Sanction are also effect on the Iranian currency.

•Economy of iran

• The economy of Iran in 1979, development was rapid.

• In 1979, 80% of economy came under the control of government.

• In 1988 the government tried to develop the coutry,communication,transportation,manufacturing,health care and education

•Economy of iran

•GDP $ 155.5 billion (2012)• ( purchasing power parity)

•GDP $ 130.6 billion (2012)• ( official exchange rate)

•Export $ 88.27 billion ( 2012)• Imports $ 56.86 billion (2012)

•According to adult iranian people.