110228 webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

23
1 3Q10 Results Presentation November 16 th , 2010 [email protected] www.tam.com.br/ri 4Q10 Results Presentation February 28, 2011

description

 

Transcript of 110228 webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

Page 1: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

1

3Q10 Results PresentationNovember 16th, 2010

[email protected] www.tam.com.br/ri

4Q10 Results PresentationFebruary 28, 2011

Page 2: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

2

Warning - Information and Projection

This notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of

the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for

investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These

estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking

statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events

and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future

performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and

uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ

materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to

publicly update or revise any forward looking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or

an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should

not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial

situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is

provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It

should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

Page 3: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

3

2010 was a year of many achievements and accomplishments

Page 4: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

4

Status of TAM & LAN combination

Due Diligence Process completed in September, 2010.

ANAC Presentation on October 20, 2010.

Binding Agreements On January 18, 2011

Non-Binding MOU On August 13, 2010

Regulatory Approvals/Registrations:• Agencia Nacional de Aviacao Civil of Brazil (ANAC)• Comissão de Valores Mobiliarios of Brazil (CVM); Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros (Chile); Securities& Exchange Commission (USA)•Antitrust authorities including Chile, Brazil, Spain, Germany, Italy and Argentina.

Shareholders Meetings• LAN Shareholders Meeting to approve the transaction. Maximum 2.5% appraisal rights.•TAM Shareholders Meeting to designate appraiser for the exchange ratio.

Exchange Offer and Closing• TAM shareholders will be offered 0.9 LATAM shares. Success subject to minimum required to delist TAM and allow squeeze-out of remaining TAM stock.

Page 5: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

5

• Initial Public Offering of R$ 692 million

• Inauguration of new head office

• Implementation and stabilization of operational systems

• New areas and structuring of the management team

• Stock Options Plan approval

• Closing with 8.0 million members

• Reaching 151 partnerships (12 coalition partnerships)

• Gross Billings of Points of R$ 1.1 billion

• Adjusted EBITDA of R$ 290.1 million (28,2% margin)

• Net Income of R$ 118.4 million

• Proposal of 95% of Net Income Pay-out as Dividends and Interest on Equity

Multiplus’ potential has been converted in great source of profitability

Page 6: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

6

Gas StationsAirline Travel Agency

Telecom

Hotels

Magazine Subscriptions

Pay-TVApparelDrugstore Education

Bookstore

Stock Exchange

Entertainment

E-Commerce

2011

2009

2010

Supermarket

Coalition Partnerships Network

Page 7: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

7

The Brazilian market has great growth potential, but high concentration

Chicago - Denver

Fort Lauderdale - New York

Chicago - Washington

Atlanta - Washington

Chicago - Los Angeles

Atlanta - Orlando

Atlanta - New York

Los Angeles - New York

Los Angeles - San Francisco

Chicago - New York

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.4

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

(Domestic PAX million)

Top 10 routes in the U.S.

Top 10 U.S. routes account for only 4% of total volume, while in Brazil represent 25%

CGH - POA

CGH - CWB

GIG - SSA

GIG - BSB

CGH - CNF

GRU - POA

GRU - Recife

GRU - Salvador

Congonhas - Brasília

Congonhas - Santos Dumont

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

3.3

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

(Domestic PAX million)

Top 10 routes in Brazil²

65%

2%2%

3%3%

3%

3%

4%4%4%

6%Atlanta

ChicagoDallas/Ft. Worth

DenverLos Angeles

Las VegasPhoenixCharlotte

Houston

Other1.028

Airports

Distribution of Passengers by Airport - USA

630

70

Boarded Passengers2010

EUA Brazil¹

1- Estimate; 2- 2009 Data

31%

4%4%4%4%

5%5%8%11%

11%

12%São PauloCGH

São PauloGRU

Brasília Rio de Janeiro - GIGSalvador

Belo Horizonte - CNFRio de Janeiro - SDUPorto AlegreRecife

CoritibaOther145

Airportss

Distribution of Passengers by Airport - Brazil

% ofTotal0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%

% ofTotal5.7%2.7%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.8%1.7%1.7%1.7%

Source: Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) • U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT); ANAC

Page 8: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

8

We are leaders in the major routes of the Brazilian market

12%

1%

44%

44%

7%

41%

52%

13%

13%

32%

43%

42%

58%

18%15%

30%

37%

5%

48%

47% 60%

40%

16%

42%

42%

5%

45%

51%

54%

46%

SDU-

CGH

CGH-

BSB

SSA-

GRU

REC-

GRU

POA-

GRU

CNF-

CGH

GIG-

BSB

SSA-

GIG

CWB-

CGH

POA-

CGH

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Capacity Share on 10 major routes in Brazil(Number of weekly frequencies)

Grupo TAMGOLWEBJETAVIANCANHT

CGH - POA

CGH - CWB

GIG - SSA

GIG - BSB

CGH - CNF

GRU - POA

GRU - Recife

GRU - Salvador

Congonhas - Brasília

Congonhas - Santos Dumont

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

3.3

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

(Domestic PAX million)

Top 10 routes in Brasil¹% doTotal5.7%2.7%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.8%1.7%1.7%1.7%

1 – 2009 Data

Source: ANAC

Page 9: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

9

We increased even more the Pantanal’s network, reaching 22 destinations and operating with 5 Airbus aircraft

São Paulo

Rio de Janeiro

Recife

Curitiba

Porto Alegre

Cuiabá

PresidentePrudente

Araçatuba

São JoséRio Preto

Cabo Frio

BrasíliaIlhéus

Juiz de Fora

Salvador

Teresina

BeloHorizonte

Uberaba

Bauru

RibeirãoPretoMarília

João Pessoa

Fortaleza

New NetworkNew Network

AirbusATR

As of January this year we increased the Pantanal’s network,

optimizing the company’s potential

10x supply growth

Operations from Congonhasand Guarulhos

Destinations increased from 7 to

22, including the major capitals in the country

Operations with 5 ATR-42 and 5 Airbus A320 family aircraft

Page 10: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

10

1,433 1,466 1,581

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

Passenger Revenue - R$ Million

20.4 18.6 19.2

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

Yield - R$ Cents

7,024 7,897 8,225

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

10,21311,234 11,872

ASK, RPK and Load Factor

Load Factor 69% 70% 69%

6%

13.3 12.4 12.7

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

RASK - R$ Cents

2%

8%

4%

4%

We increased by 10% our domestic passengers revenue

Domestic PassengersDomestic Passengers

16%

17%

10%

6%

5%

*

*

* Does not consider the additional tariff reversion impact in the 3Q10

Page 11: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

11

We were able to increase load factor in 20 of the 24 hours of the day

*Domestic flights in weekly days

Load Factor x Hour *Off Peak Off PeakPeak Peak

58,0%

63,0%

68,0%

73,0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Off Peak

4Q09 4Q10

Page 12: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

12

1.74 1.75 1.70

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

U$ 7.5 U$ 8.7 U$ 8.5

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

R$ 13.0R$ 15.2 R$ 14.5

Yield - Cents

2%

-2%

4,9355,945 5,749

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

ASK6,534

7,184 7,198

ASK, RPK and Load Factor

Load Factor 76% 83% 80%

In dollars, we increased by 27% our international passengers revenue and our RASK by 21% comparing to the previous year

U$368U$516 U$491

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

R$640

R$903R$833

Passenger Revenue - Million

U$5.6U$7.2 U$6.8

4Q09 3Q10 4Q10

R$9.8

R$12.6R$11.6

RASK - Cents

Avg US DollarAvg US Dollar

International PassengersInternational Passengers

10%

0%

16%

3%

12%

5%

15%

30%

8%

5%

27%

18%

8%

5%

21%-3%

Page 13: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

13

Our EBIT increased 131%, a 6.8% margin

* In 3Q10, adjusted values excluding the effect of the additional tariff reversal** Others includes “Movements in fair value of fuel derivatives” and “Gains (losses) on aircraft revaluation”

Net Revenue (million)

Operating Expenses (million)

EBIT (million)

EBIT Margin

EBITDAR (million)

EBITDAR Margin

Financ. Result + Others* (million)

Net Income (million)

Total RASK (cents)

CASK (cents)

CASK ex-fuel (cents)

CASK USD (cents)

CASK USD ex-fuel (cents)

4Q10 vs 4Q09

4Q10 vs 3Q10

In Reais 4Q104Q10 4Q094Q09 3Q103Q10

3,225

3,006218

6.8%

507

15.7%66

15116.9

15.8

10.9

9.3

6.4

2,497

2,47095

3.8%

373

14.9%93

14014.9

14.3

10.0

8.5

5.8

29.1%

21.7%130.8%

3.0p.p.

35.8%

0.8p.p.-29.0%

7.9%13.4%

9.9%

8.5%

12.6%

6.8%

11.2%

14.6%-20.9%

-2.8p.p.

-11.1%

-0.2p.p.392%

-48.8%7.4%

10.7%

14.5%

14.1%

18.0%

2,899

2,623276

9.5%

570

19.7%458

29415.7

14.2

9.5

8.1

5.4

Page 14: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

14

Net Income2010

Legal Reserve Profit to bedistributed

Minimummandatorydividends

637

-32606

-151

00

200

400

600

800

2010 Results destination(R$ Million)

The year's result represents a minimum payment of R$ 151.4million in dividends

1 Weighted average number of shares outstanding

2 Share price in 2011, February 24, share of R$ 34.55

3 Earnings per share proposed consider treasury shares of December 31, 2010.

4 The Dividend Yield is calculated using 2011, February 24, share price of R$ 34.55

Indicator Amount

Net Income (R$ thousand) 637.4Dividend for the year (R$ thousand) 151.4Number of Shares1 (millions of shares) 151.2 Share Price2 (R$) 34.55Earnings per share3 (R$) 4.2Dividend per share (R$) 1.00Dividend Yield4 (%) 2.9

Page 15: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

15

Liquidity and debt profile

Cash 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

995

2,453 2,607

1,9142,145

2,518

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

84%

16%

Adequate debt profileAdequate debt profile Liquidity PositionLiquidity Position

Adjusted Net Debt / EBITDARAdjusted Net Debt / EBITDAR

US$

Obs.1: Net Debt Adjusted includes annual operating leases x 7Obs.2: Debt is considered in US GAAP for 2005 and 2006 and in IFRS since 2007

R$ Million

Debt mix by currency

R$

Debentures, bonds and othersLeasing on the balance sheet

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3.8

2.1

5.66.3 6.5

3.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Page 16: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

16

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13

-9

-2

5

-12

-1

9

-12

-1

9

-12

-1

9

-14

-1

9

-7

-1

6

-3

5

-3

5

-1

2

Hedge Cash Impact Sensitivity(USD Million)

Hedge Position

1H11

2H111H122H121Q13

1.9452.0401.810900150

8786919797

25%26%23%12%4%

Jan12 –Mar13 2.860 93 15%

Jan11 –Dec11 3.985 87 25%

Volume¹Volume¹ Strike²Strike² Coverage³Coverage³

70 USD/barrel

90 USD/barrel

110 USD/barrel

1 – Volume in thousands of barrels

2 – Average Strike (USD/barrel) 3 – Projected consumption coverage

Page 17: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

17

Cash and accounting effects of our fuel hedge positions

(150)

(100)

(50)

-

50

100

150

200

70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120Average WTI [USD/bbl]

Mill

ion

of R

eais

Cash Effect 2011 Cash Effect 2012 Accounting Effect 2011

FX based on 12/31/2010: R$1,66/USD

Page 18: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

18

Domestic Market

Domestic Market

2010 Guidance

AssumptionsAssumptions

Guidance for2010

Guidance for2010

Actual2010

Actual2010

R$ 1.81

USD 85

-6%

2

75%

66%

69%

8%

14%

12%

22% - 25%

R$ 1.76Average US dollar rate

USD 80Average WTI

-2.9%* CASK ex-fuel

5 New international frequency or destination

79.0%Internacional

67.5%Domestic

71.9%Load Factor

6.0%Internacional

13.5%Domestic

10.5%Supply growth (ASK)

23.5%Demand growth (RPK)

*According to the CPC number 43(R1), from December 16, 2010

Page 19: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

19

We adjusted our accounting policy for consistency between our individual and consolidated financial statements

2009 Variation 2010

10.5

-0.310.2

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

2009 Variation 2010

10.6

-0.510.1

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

Current accounting criteriaCurrent accounting criteria Previous accounting criteriaPrevious accounting criteria

-2,9%-4,4%

Previous accounting policy

Variation Current accounting policy

642

-135507

0

200

400

600

800

We adapted the accounting criteria of recognition of the

revaluation of flight equipment, retroactively affecting the 2009

results. This change has an impact mainly in line with

depreciation and amortization, thus impacting the CASK.

We adapted the accounting criteria of recognition of the

revaluation of flight equipment, retroactively affecting the 2009

results. This change has an impact mainly in line with

depreciation and amortization, thus impacting the CASK.

Accounting policy adjustmentAccounting policy adjustment

Previous accounting policy

Variation Current accounting policy

62971 700

0

200

400

600

800

CASK excluding fuel reductionCASK excluding fuel reduction

Amortization and Depreciation2009

Amortization and Depreciation2009

Amortization and Depreciation2010

Amortization and Depreciation2010

Page 20: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

20

Maintaining the original guidance, we reduced the CASK ex-fuel in 5.5%

Published CASKVariation

Accounting effect

Dilution Effect One time effectAdjusted CASK

Variation

-2.9%

-1.5p.p

-0.9p.p -0.3p.p -5.5%-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0%

Considering the previous accounting criteria, the

reduction of CASK excluding fuel costs is 4.4% - a

difference of 1.5p.p versus the released

reduction

Our estimates forecasted a 12% growth in ASK,

while the real was 10.5% -an additional impact of

0.9p.p in CASK from a lower fixed cost dilution

We had non-recurring expenses that impacted the 4Q10 earnings in R$

21 million - impacting our CASK excluding fuel in

0.3p.p

Page 21: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

21

Domestic Market

Domestic Market

2011 Guidance

AssumptionsAssumptions

Guidance for2011

Guidance for2011

ActualJanuaryActual

January

R$ 1,78

USD 93

-5%

2

83%

67,5% - 70%

73% - 75%

10%

10% - 14%

10% - 13%

15% - 18%

1,67Average US dollar rate

USD 90Average WTI

-CASK ex-fuel

-New international frequency or destination

81%International

79%Domestic

80%Taxa de ocupação

11%International

12%Domestic

12%Supply growth (ASK)

16%Demand growth (RPK)

Page 22: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

22

B767 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-bodyB777

We announced investments of USD 3.2 billion in new aircraft, andincreased our fleet plan

ATR-42

43

A340 - 2

A33018

A321 - 5

A32085

A319275

43

2

20

9

86

293

8

3

21

131

103

19

136

12

22

140

12

24

146

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

151 156163 168

174182

Total Fleet (end of period)Total Fleet (end of period)

Page 23: 110228   webconference ingles - 4 q10-ss

23

[email protected]/ir