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Transcript of 1 of 15 Steve Aos Director Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2740...
1 of 15
Steve AosDirector
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Phone: (360) 586-2740E-mail: [email protected]
Institute Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov
An “Evidence-Based” Investment StrategyIdentifying & Implementing Policies
that Improve Outcomes and Save Money:
The Washington State Approach
Canadian Congress on Criminal JusticeVancouver, British Columbia
October 4, 2013
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Washington State Institute for Public PolicyNature of the Institute
Non-partisan, created by 1983 Legislature
General purpose legislative research unit
Projects assigned by legislative bills
Legislative & Executive Board
Directions to WSIPP from the WA Legislature
What works? What doesn’t?
What are the costs & benefits of policies to improve…
Crime (1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2013)
Education, Early Ed (2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013)
Child Abuse & Neglect (2003, 2009, 2012)
Substance Abuse (2003, 2005, 2009, 2012)
Mental Health (2005, 2009, 2012)
Health Care (2012)
Developmental Disabilities (2008)
Teen Births (1994)
Employment, Workforce Training (2009)
Public Assistance (2009)
Public Health (2009)
Housing (2009)
ResultsApplication in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture
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Change in Crime RatesUnited States and Washington:
1980 to 2011
Crime Rates : -45% -46%
United States Washington
Homicide Rates: -48% -49%
ResultsApplication in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture
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Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:1930 to 2012
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
*Incarceration Rate
*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in prisons per 1,000 resident population in Washington or the United States.
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
United States
Washington
ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers
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1. Evidence:.
Are There Evidence-Based Policies that Improve Outcomes with a Positive Return on Investment?
Our 3-Step Research Approach
2. Economics:
3. Portfolio:
What works to improve outcomes; what does not?
We analyze all rigorous evaluations on policiesto improve public outcomes of legislative interest.
What is the return on investment?We compute benefits, costs, and risk to the people of Washington State using a consistent framework.
How would a combination of options affect statewide outcomes? What is the risk?
ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers
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WSIPP “Consumer Reports” ListsEvidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment
ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers
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Change In Crime
(# of EB Studies)
Benefits Minus Costs,per-person, life cycle (Probability: you lose $)
Cog-Behavioral Treatment-7% (38) $9,283 (<1%)
ISP: surveillance only 0% (14) -$4,718 (89%) ISP: treatment focus -14% (17) $7,295 (4%)
Multisystemic Therapy -13% (11) $24,751 (2%) Aggression Repl. Training -20% (4) $29,740 (4%)
Adult Offender Programs
Pre-School* (low income) -21% (11) $14,934 (<1%) Nurse Family Partnership*-17% (3) $13,182 (20%)
Prevention*
Functional Family Therapy -22% (8) $30,706 (<1%)
Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient)-12% (21) $10,974 (<1%)
Scared Straight +8% (10) -$9,887 (100%)
What Works to Reduce Crime?
* Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.
(Examples from our latest results)
Incarceration Per Capita-13% (11) $24,751 (2%)
Prison & Policing
Juvenile Offender Programs*
Police Per Capita -22% (8) $30,706 (<1%)Updated results available soon
Next StepsWashington StateOverview The Numbers
Number of Slots Funded 100
Taxpayer Cost per Slot (net)Total Cost
Total Benefits
Bottom Line: Benefits – Costs
Outcome: CrimeProgram: Functional Family Therapy
for Juvenile Offenders
$3,300$330,000
6047
- 13
Number who recidivate with a new crimeWITHOUT FFT
WITH FFTNet Change
$211,000
$2,743,000
+$2,413,000
Lifetime benefits per avoided recidivist
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ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers
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WSIPP “Consumer Reports” ListsEvidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment
ResultsThe ROI NumbersOverview Application in WA
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Using Research to Craft Criminal Justice Policy:Washington’s Legislative Milestones
1995
2012 & 2013
2000
2005-6
Juvenile Justice → Budget Change
Adult Corrections → Budget Change
What policy portfolio reduces crime & limits prison construction? → Budget Change, Silo
Translated the Legislature's evidence-based investments into budget drivers for prison.
Evidence-based budget requirements (for juvenile justice, adult corrections, children’s mental health, child welfare, adult mental health & substance abuse).
2007
2003 Prevention → Budget Change
1984 Sentencing Reform
ResultsThe ROI NumbersOverview Application in WA
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Four Evidence-Based Implementation Issues (Things we’ve learned)
Formal Assessment Process (Tools) to align participants with the right programs, and to focus resources on higher-risk populations.
State-Funded Quality/Fidelity System to assure better adherence to the assessment system
and the intervention program models.
Swift and Certain Apprehension clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty,
but not for severity of punishment.
Funding Formulas with the Right Incentives to encourage interest, adherence, and innovations in evidence-based programs.
Application in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture Results
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Keeping Track of Results: Prison Beds AvoidedCumulative Effect of Washington’s History of Evidence-based Programming
01980
Aver
age
Dai
ly P
rison
Pop
ulati
on
Year
2,0004,0006,000
8,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
As of 2013, there are about 1,500 fewer people in prison as a result of Washington’s evidence-based adult, juvenile, & prevention programs. These effects are in the state prison forecast.
Blue Area = Actual Prison Population Years beyond 2013 are current state forecast.
Orange Area = What ADP would have been without the high ROI programs.
Application in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture Results
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Trends in Adult Recidivism in Washington: 1990-2007Annual prison release cohorts by DOC risk classification level
31%20%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 1990, 31% were reconvicted for a new felony within three years.
Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 2007, 20% were reconvicted for a new felony within three years.
Any Felony Re-conviction (within 3 years after release)
'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06
Lower Risk(20% of total prison pop)
Moderate Risk(17%)
High, Non-violent(19%)
High, Violent(44%)
Risk Classification Level of Offenders In Prison
0%10%20%30%40%
Violent Felony Re-conviction
by year of release from prison
Application in WAThe ROI NumbersBig Picture Results
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VT
MA
RI
CT
WA
OR
ID
CA
NM
KS
TX
IA
IL
NY
MS
FL
16 other US States are now implementing versions of the “Washington Approach” via the Results First project of
the MacArthur Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts
Caveat
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Two Goals of Criminal Justice Policy:
Crime Reduction(to achieve less crime in the future)
Justice(to address criminal wrongs done in the past)
Benefit-cost and recidivism risk findings can help policymakers with the crime reduction goal,
but they are pretty much silent on the justice goal.
ANNUAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE ISSUEEXCLUSIVE RATINGS
Over 200 Crime–Related Programs and Policies
Programs programs
taxpayer dollars
that reduce crime and save taxpayers money.
programs
BEST 2013Crime
Policies to Adopt
SInstitute
Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov
Reports Are Available on:
Criminal JusticeJuvenile JusticeChild WelfareEducationMental HealthSubstance AbusePrevention…More on the way
Thank You
Appendix
Prison is Increasingly Used for Violent OffendersChange in Average Violent Felony Risk Scores Since 1990
Year
-5%
+0%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
+25%
+30%
+35%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Since 1990, the average violent felony risk score of offenders released from Washington prisons has increased more than 30%.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
* Crime rates are the number of reported crimes to police per 1,000 resident population. Source: WASPC and FBI.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
United States
Washington
Crime Rates: Violent & PropertyWashington and United States: 1980 to 2010
Violent Crime Rate* Property Crime Rate*
United States
Washington
Violent crime has dropped since the mid-1990s, and Washington’s rate remains lower than the US.
Property crime rates have declined, and the gap between Washington and the US has narrowed.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Juvenile Arrest Rates: Closing the Gap Long-Term Trends in Juvenile Arrest Rates (1985 to 2010)
Juve
nile
Arr
est
Rat
e(a
rres
ts p
er 1
,000
10-
17 y
ear
olds
)
Year
United States
Washington
Prior to the mid-1990s, Washington’s juvenile arrest rate was consistently higher than the US rate.
The gap started to close in the mid-1990s. Today, the two juvenile arrest rates are virtually identical.
DOC Risk-Level Classifications of Adult Offenders: The Timing of Recidivism in Washington State for…
Months After Being At-Risk in the Community
…a New Felony Conviction …a Violent Felony Conviction
Months After Being At-Risk in the CommunitySource: WSIPP analysis of data from the Administrative Office of the Courts and the Department of Corrections
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1 6 12 18 24 30 36
Classified by DOC as: High, Violent
Lower
Moderate
High,Non-Violent Classified by DOC as:
High, Violent
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1 6 12 18 24 30 36
CaveatApplication in WAPrinciplesBig Picture
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Keeping Track of Results: the Incarceration-Crime Relationship
Was
hin
gto
n’s
Cri
me
Rat
e(n
on-d
rug
crim
es p
er 1
,000
pop
)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Washington’s Incarceration Rate (ADP per 1,000 pop)1 2 3 4
Key Development: The long-term link between
incarceration and crime in WA appears to have changed, favorably, around 2006.
Crime is now falling without expensive increases in incarceration rates.
Better public policies have had a role in the improved results.
2011
20072008
20092010
‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92
‘93 ‘94‘95
‘96
‘97 ‘98
‘00‘99
‘01‘02
‘03‘04 ‘05
2006
‘85
‘86 ‘87 ‘88
‘81
‘82 ‘83 ‘84
1980
ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers
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Evidence-Based Community Supervision of Adult Offenders:Three Findings from WSIPP Research Reviews
+1%
Intensive Supervision: Surveillance-
Oriented (14)*
Intensive Supervision: Treatment-Oriented
(17)*
Supervision: Focused on Risk,
Treatment, & Response
(6)*Change in Criminal
Recidivism
-10%($1.93 b/c)
-16%($6.83 b/c)*The number of high-quality research studies on which this finding is based.
ResultsApplication in WABig Picture The ROI Numbers
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1. Risk More crime can be avoided when policies focus on higher-risk (rather than lower-risk) offender populations.
2. Treatment (delivered with fidelity)Benefit-cost evidence indicates that some policies work and others do not. Careful selection and implementation needed.
3. Swift and Certain Apprehension/PunishmentClear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty, but not for severity of punishment.
4. Budget Drivers (aka: incentives)Deliver savings to taxpayers by tying policies to budget drivers (e.g. fiscal notes & caseloads); incentive funding formulas.
Evidence-Based Polcies that Reduce Crime and Save Money:
—four principles that improve the odds of success—