In this issue Issue 01Nov 23 - Dec 06, 2014

Internal Politics:

Nawaz Shareef is in a panic mode indeed. Desperate to gain domestic and international credibility, he is pushing his team to deliver at least something to justify their dwindling control to power. PTI calls to block the country is the most immediate challenge he faces but his woes do not end there. Power and Gas tariff hike, inflation, law and order crisis, terrorism, political chaos – all adding to the crate the mayhem which is now seriously threatening his rule. He is nervous but tries to put up a brave face.

Pakistan army chief is now filling in for the failed political government. Presently on his visit to the US, the COAS of Pak army is receiving a red carpet reception from the US military leadership, who also respects the fact that entire US military strategy in the region depends upon support from the Pak military. Pakistan‟s army chief is now in a commanding position within the country and in the international diplomatic and military circles. Pakistan army is now openly dealing with US, Russia and China independently, forc-ing the political government to sign landmark deals. General Raheel did not

Pakistan’s Security Analysis

News Brief &Analysis

Brasstacks Policy Paper

Advanced Threat AnalysisDefence and Security Advisors

Pakistan Security and Political Situation Report & Threat Analysis

By Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid

Rawalpindi, Pakistsan

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mince his words when he was in US. Pakistan is also using Chinese and Russian influence in the region to counter balance US pressures. Following tweet explains it all.

Tahir ul Qadri has been neutralized by Nawaz Shareef under a secret deal which sources confirm involve mon-ey and amnesty. Now IK alone stands in front of the government. He cannot afford to drag the protest as the weather has become harsh. Next few days would be messy indeed, especially for Punjab and Islamabad. More and more responsibility would come on the COAS and the DG ISI to manage the national security and political challenges. At one point, the army might decide to step in decisively to remove an incompetent incapacitated regime to bring in a new patriotic government. But that remains the call of the army alone to decide the red line of incompetence of the NS government.

Nightmares for Nawaz Shareef to continue for some weeks now. Imran has unveiled his “plan C” and has threat-ened final war against the government in his Sunday night rally in Islamabad. It was a formidable show of force and the tone, language and the demeanor were equally threatening to the government. The battle lines are drawn.

This is serious threat and trouble for Nawaz government. For the last few days, the government was in total panic al-ready, desperate to stop Imran and his diehard followers from coming to the Capital. From road blocks to the use of media and legal forces, all available means were deployed by the government but they had to suffer a humiliation on Sunday night as almost 100,000 people did make it to the massive PTI rally in Islamabad. There was no trouble inside the rally or in Islamabad but government used all means at their dispos-al to try to reduce the number of people reaching Islamabad.

Nawaz Shareef is now well and truly in trouble. His dwindling authority at home is being noticed internationally as well. Regional and global power are taking him less and less seriously, isolating him, abandoning him and deal-ing with the Pak army more and more. The fact is not hidden from the NS government who are visibly frustrated, angry and even blurting out their visible frustration.

On the issue of law and order also, the government continues to face crisis after crisis. Army is busy fighting its war in the tribal areas but the urban insurgents, political violence and civic unrest continues to haunt the govern-ment.Nawaz has now become a liability for the country. Army can either ask him to resign and then form a caretaker government or decide to ask Imran Khan to back off and then let Nawaz rule for as long as he can. But the second option would not just destroy the respect, credibility and image of the army leadership within the nation but would also destroy the country too.

Army chief raises issue of border violations by India

Pakistan, Russia sign landmark defence cooper-ation agreement

But one thing is definite now. Army cannot stay neutral… else it would be responsible for destroying the state by allowing the local and foreign forces of chaos to operate without hindrance. This is the 5th Generation war, where states are destroyed not through the invasions but through implosions. Pakistan is imploding. Pak army must act and intervene decisively.

Eastern Front:

Indians are playing a dangerous game inside Pakistan and on the line of control in Kashmir. All pro-Indian par-ties have joined hands as well and have vehemently attacked Pak army over its operations in North Waziristan. All pro-Indian Deobandi clergy have also formed a larger alliance against Pak army. Indians are also pushing Americans to target Pak-Afghan border regions under the pretext of eliminating those men who are wanted by the Indians.

In Indian held Kashmir also, Hindu radicals are trying to bring their own man as ruler in the Muslim majority state. Clashes along the line of control also continue. Indians have also upped their sponsored violence inside

Pakistan – from FATA to Baluchistan to Karachi. Pak army is fighting back. But these are all signs that a serious trouble is brewing between Pakistan and India in the coming days.

Indians are also aggressive, mobilizing all their military and political assets within Pakistan – from MQM to BLA to TTP to political parties allied with India. Line of control in Kashmir is also volatile. Signs are very disturbing. A limited but fierce war is a real possibility in the coming weeks. Pak army will do well to be on guard. India is

Modi’s Hindu nationalists eye power in Kashmir. The facade of elections in Kashmir is part of RSS

agenda of Hindutva.

Anti Pakistan deobandi clergy joins Pro-Indian political plyers to further enemy’s agenda within

Pakistani politics.

now visibly aggressive as well and the tone, body language and hostility of Indian leadership and army is signal-ing serious trouble on the western borders. In SAARC summit, Indian leader Modi did not even shake hands with Nawaz but at the end, Nawaz tried to rescue his own crashed ego.

Western Front:

Brilliant new strategy of Pak military which is sure to upset both US and India. India has been trying to build a case against Pakistan using its clout in the US. Pakistan army is counter balancing it with Russian and Chinese influence. The great game between major powers has just gotten into a high gear.

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News & Brief Analysis

Isis suicide bombers used Turkish territory to launch attack on Kobani, human rights group says

An Isis suicide bomb attack on the Syrian border town of Kobani was launched from across the border in Turkey, Kurdish officials have said.

Human rights observers from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights corroborated reports that fighters used Turkish territory

for the raid.

The Turkish government confirmed that a bomb-loaded vehicle was detonated on the Syrian side of the border at Kobani, but denied the

vehicle had crossed the border from Turkey.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-suicide-bombers-used-turkish-territory-to-launch-attack-on-kobani-human-rights-group-says-9893330.html

ANALYSIS

It is almost impossible to vet any of these two opposite narratives of events which, according to reports, have claimed more than 40 people on both sides. Turkish made a choice to not to push back the ISIS when they first assaulted border town of Kobane inside Syria. Instead, Tur-key allowed Iraqi Kurds to fight against IS after crossing into Syria from Turkey. Turks hesitated to push back ISIS fearing that Kurds would get too strong in Northern Syria. That policy of Ankara of letting Iraqi Kurds using Turkish soil is now turning catastrophically wrong both on military and diplomatic fronts. It is almost impossible to keep a check on IS mil-itants not using cover of Iraqi Kurds and entering into Turkey while on diplomatic front, it will be very hard for Turkish government to justify her role in combat against IS.

Domestically, Turkey would also be facing more problems regarding internal security. IS can launch a similar attack within the Turkey hiding itself as Iraqi Kurds and if that happens, Turkey will indulge into a com-plex and prolonged war. To make the matters worse, Kurds are also accusing Turkey for helping ISIS in bid to eliminate Kurds’ movement against Turkey.

Growth engine is stallingA VERY large wheel is grinding to a halt. Large-scale man-ufacturing has been languishing at growth rates below 2pc

throughout this fiscal year.

Latest figures show the LSM growth rate at 1.86pc, whereas in the corresponding period last year the figure was almost 4pc.

Recall that last year was hardly a stellar success for LSM since this is when uncertainty rocked the money markets and

the IMF programme had just begun.http://www.dawn.com/news/1146852/growth-engine-is-stalling

ANALYSIS

1.8% Growth rate is perhaps the lowest growth rate of Large Scale Manufacturing in Pakistan’s history. Inept governments during the last 20 years have created an energy crisis which is now turning into a national tragedy.

Truck with 5,000kg explosives seizedQUETTA: Security forces on Monday seized a truck carrying around 5,000 kilogrammes of explosives as it was attempting

to enter Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1148068/truck-entering-quetta-with-5000kg-explosives-seized

ANALYSIS

Almost 18,00 Km long open border with Afghanistan has turned into one of toughest challenges of Pakistani security forces. Terrorists, criminals and smugglers of every kind have their routes through this border to and from Afghanistan. Se-curity forces in Quetta (Capital of Baluchistan province bor-dering with Afghanistan) seized huge amount of arms and ammunition and saved the city. This indeed is a great news considering the fact that the ammunition shown in the video would have taken dozens of lives, had it been not caught. But this successful raid by security forces would not solve the problem of terrorism without securing the Pak-Afghan border.

Pakistan must fence this border, at least the part lie in Baluchistan. It is high time for Pakistan to take radical measures to combat this transnational terrorism phenomenon which already has rendered many states dysfunctional and failed!

Foreign fighters flow to SyriaAn estimated 15,000 militants from at least 80 nations are believed to have entered Syria to help overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad according the CIA and studies by ISCR and The Soufan Group. Many of these fighters are believed to have joined units that are now part of the Islamic State. Western officals are concerned about what these individuals may do upon returning to

their native countries.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/foreign-fighters-flow-to-syria/2014/10/11/3d2549fa-5195-11e4-8c24-487e92bc997b_graphic.html

ANALYSIS:

This map, published by Washington Post, explains the influx of ISIS fighters from all over the world. This flow of fighters is indeed a concerning factor as reported in the related news story. But it also raises few very important questions regarding this transnational phenomenon which is new and unique in modern history.

Why none of these states, shown in the map, was able to effectively block the inflow of militants in Syria? Why there is no scramble at global level to introduce more rigorous measures to prevent this flow of militants?

How ISIS manage to spread its violent ideology so swiftly across the three continents?

How come ISIS sustained in maintain its central command structure and did not divided into splinters like TTP after its leadership was assassinated?

How ISIS is managing its financial resources in presence of strict monitoring and military assaults by the US led coalition?

All these questions makes it clear that there is lot more going on in Syrian conflict than what meets the eye. Despite being in the anti-ISIS collation, some of the states are fighting their own proxy wars against each other using anti-ISIS war as a cover. Ethnic and Sectarian factors are also affecting the allegiance of coalition partners. But in the middle of this crisis is US post 9/11 Middle East policy which despite change in White House, not only not changed but it became more violent in its application. First it were American mercenaries fighting and killing in Iraq (Black water, XE World Wide) but now that the same role has been taken by ISIS and other groups like that. Knowingly or unknowingly they are destroying the Islam as political and financial alternative to crumbling capitalistic model. Senseless mass killings of dozens of people and using Islamic slogans at the same time are painting Islam as a violent ideology. By looking at the inaction of powerful players in ME geopolitics to prevent this free flow of militants in Syria it is prudent that some forces are also waging this grand war against Islam as well.

17 dead as militants attack army camp in Indian-held Kashmir

SRINAGAR: Militants in Indian-held Kashmir attacked an Indian army camp Friday, triggering a fierce gun-battle that left 11 Indian troops and six sus-pected assailants dead, officials said.

An army officer told The Associated Press the rebels hurled grenades and fired automatic rifles as they tried to enter an artillery unit of the camp in the Uri region before dawn, officials said.

The sprawling camp, also the regional headquarters of the army’s artillery regiment, is near the heavily militarised line of control.

Eight soldiers including a lieutenant colonel and three policemen were killed on the Indian side, police said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to media.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1148956/17-dead-as-militants-attack-army-camp-in-indian-held-kashmirANALYSIS:

Palestinians have a legit right to fight the Zionists! Similarly, Kashmiri also have the right to fight for freedom. Killing of 11 Indian mil-itary men including a Lt. Col. in Indian occupied Kashmir is a harsh reminder to Hindu Zionists that resistance is alive. But in these latest attacks in Kashmir, we also have to see the element of a false flag op by Indian army to create a reason to attack Pakistan!

In the past multiple terror attacks were blamed on Pakistan but Indian Military Intelligence officers were involved like Malegaon Bomb-ing. Similarly, dozens of Pakistanis were killed when a train was bombed by RSS terrorists within Indian Army. Pakistani groups were blamed but it was Indian MI which perpetrated the whole operation as part of Indian strategy to malign Pakistan. Even the famous Mumbai attacks were done by the Indian govt to create a reason to blame Pakistan & make harsh laws. Indians are aggressively preparing for a limited war with Pakistan & needed a false flag attack to justify it.

US policy on Kashmir has not changed: Marie Harf

Washington: The US on Saturday said its policy on Kashmir has not changed and it is for India and Pakistan to decide on the pace and scope of peace talks between them.

“Our policy on Kashmir hasn’t changed. We still believe that the pace and the scope and character of India and Pakistan’s dialogue on Kashmir is for those two countries to determine,” State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf told re-porters here.

“We are concerned about any violence in Kashmir,” she said.

“Of course our embassies in both places have raised these types of incidents with their respective host governments and certainly encouraged both to continue working together on the issue,” she said in response to a question.

http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/us-policy-on-kashmir-has-not-changed-marie-harf_1510242.htmlAnalysis

US admits that Kashmir is a issue between two nuclear armed states of South East Asia which needs a peaceful and durable solu-tion and that is only possible if both states let Kashmiris to choose what they want and accept whatever the result may be. Any other scheme or idea would not provide a permanent solution. Kashmir belongs to Kashmiris and only they must choose their political future as society

Abstract:

Sectarian differences, even clashes, is nothing new within the Muslim world. Before the fall of Otto-man Empire, some 100 years ago, this rift was confined within the scholarly circles and academics of the Muslim World. It never presented an existential threat to the stability of any Muslim land. But right after the fall of Ottoman Empire, the seeds of present crisis were spread when Muslim lands were divided based on Arab nationalism. With this artificial division, these sectarian dif-ferences turned into a complex transnational phenomenon, threatening the stability of the entire region. Historically, this is unprecedented. In modern geopolitics, this phenomenon has become a centrifugal force tearing apart multiple Muslim societies and the states.

Geopolitical challenges in Middle East are much compounded than what meets the eye. Beneath this ostensibly single-faceted sectarian strife, hidden dynamics –ranging political history of the re-gion to the geopolitical ambitions of global power players –are covertly shaping this entire conflict. Presenting this geopolitical contest as a mere sectarian conflict is part of a much larger scheme of things.

This paper is a quest in putting the sectarian dimension of ensuing pandemonium in the entire Middle East into a larger perspective of global politics through retrospective analysis of various historic and contemporary political developments. This essay also examines the phenomenon of takfir within various sects of Shia and Sunni and suggests some steps which can provide the basis for a more inclusive social-political regional strategy to put this venomous sidewinder back in the hibernation which has been wreaking havoc in multiple Muslim states!

Takfir & SectarianismResurregence of Old Hibernating Sidewinder!

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

“I heard the Messenger of Allah (peace be upon him) saying, “If someone accuses another of disbe-lief or calls him the enemy of Allah, such an accusation will revert to him (the accuser) if the ac-

cused is innocent”.

Hazrat Abu Dharr Al Ghiffari (RA)

Background:

Before analyzing the atrocious ideology of Takfir and its physical manifestation i.e. sectarian violence as a tool of complex modern geopolitics, it is critical to understand one fundamental principle. The issue of Takfir and sectarianism cannot be seen in isolation as it is directly linked with an even bigger, older and more per-plexing phenomenon of khawarijism. These Khawarij were the first “sect” in Islamic history who appeared during the rule of Prophet Muhemmed (sm) in Madina. Before their emergence, there were no sects in Islam and only a singular interpretation, given by Sunnah and Hadith of Prophet (sm), was considered the final ver-dict about all the matters, religious or otherwise. And this is the group who made the companions of Prophet of Islam (sm) to fight each other through their sheer propaganda and deception prowess. These were the people, who practically introduced the phenomenon of Takfir by declaring other Muslims infidels including Sahabah like Umer (R.A), Usman (R.A) and Ali (R.A). They were the people who assassinated the last three caliphs of Islam and proved to be a strategic tool against Islam. Finally, these Khawarij were responsible for the creation of Shia-Sunni divide among Muslim societies just to fulfill their own political agenda which had nothing to do with Islam whatsoever!

Understanding this history of first sect in Islam along with its violent ideology remains a critical imperative as modern day sectarian strife, in the greater Middle East region, drives its ideological inspirations, narratives and rationale from that early age of Islam. This also dispels another general misconception, which has been prevalent among Muslims since centuries now, that Karbala was the starting point of present day sectarianism. Indeed, this was not the case!

This phenomenon intensified once the great Muslim Empire of Ottoman Caliphate was divided on the nation-alistic and sectarian basis. This changed the entire complexion of Muslim thought process. The debate over western concepts like nation state, democracy and liberalism further divided Muslim societies as latter were not prepared or educated for any of these alien concepts. It baffled the Islamic scholars as well and they failed to present any counter-narrative. Every sect, in order to further its political agenda, used sectarian card. Final goal was to get into the power!

To understand this complex dimension, we will have to revisit the traditional debate over sectarianism. The debate over “sectarian dynamics of geopolitics” will have to be reached from reverse perspective. It is time to investigate the role of geopolitical forces in shaping this entire sectarian chaos. Takfir is not a goal in itself. Early history of Islam has proven this as a fact. It has always been deployed as a tool in a larger political strate-gy. With the nation state variable emplaced in the regional geopolitical equation, takfir became a transnational

phenomenon recognizing no borders or limitations. Outcome was more deadly divisions with the Muslims states. Apart from crossing over the international borders, takfir became a centrifugal force even within the states dividing them further and at a third level almost all major sects today have divisions within.

Amid all this ideological confusion, state of Israel was created in Muslim heartland right after World War II. It was not acceptable for any Muslim sect except those who were given the thrones after fall of Ottomans. Strong anti-Israel sentiments began to emerge in Arab world but after 1973 Arab-Israel war, all the major con-flicts took place within the Arabs. Since 1979, these internal conflicts have become so severe that entire Mus-lim world has become irrelevant as far as threat of Israel is concerned. The impunity with which Israel carried out the genocide of Palestinians, in recent aggression in Gaza, is the most vivid testimony of this fact. Another interesting aspect of this entire sectarian axis which cannot be overlooked is the fact that the sectarian violence intensifies whenever Khawarij resurge in any Muslim society. They waged wars upon other Muslims by doing their takfir (i.e. declaring them kafir) which has often caused creation of new sects in Islam. This is how Muslim world has been divided into so many sects. Forces afraid of Islam as a political ideology, use this internal sectarian divide to cause infighting among the Muslims to further the political chaos in Muslim heartland. It is nadir of Islamic history that due to the presence of sect-based governments in various Islamic countries, the entire region has been sucked into a strategic quagmire. Today, there is no unity of thought in any Muslim nation state or even within any sect of Islam. Result? A complete social, political and national breakdown!

Current State of Affairs:

Below is a brief snapshot of prevailing political and national breakdown rampant in the entire Middle East and beyond.

• Today, Shia militants are at war with Yemen's Sunni government while Sunni Arabs has joined the US to attack the Shia regime of Syria.

• In Iraq, Sunni insurgents have been waging war against a Shia government.

• Saddam, despite being a secular Baathist, pretended to be a Sunni and occupied another Sunni state Kuwait which instigated the first Gulf War and Saddam’s own downfall.

Shia-Sunni conflict, tearing apart Iraq

• Syria becomes the 7th Muslim country to be bombed by US since 2003 with ensuing crisis encircling countries as far afield as Turkey and Ukraine.

• Saudi Salafis are ruthless against Shia Iranians. But not all of them as Salafis themselves are divided into multiple sub-sects based on their interpretations.1

• In 2003, Iran joined hands with the US to overthrow Saddam regime and bring a Shia government. But, in 2010, Iraqi Shia political front refused to ally with Iran backed political groups.2

• First CIA/Mossad, Sunni Arabs created ISIS. Then they join hands "against" it, creating justification for invasion of Syria for expansion of Israel’s political and strategic influence and even its current borders.

• Mossad/CIA created a Frankenstein called ISIS and presented it as a Sunni militant outfit.3 A group of ruthless murderous thugs of Khawarij. Now US join hands with Iran against it.

• US backed Shia Arab Iraqi government is opposing the airstrikes by US backed Sunni Arab states but has no problem with bombing campaign by the US,UK and France in Iraq.4

• Iran fully cooperated with CIA in overthrowing Saddam in Iraq & Taliban in Afghanistan. Now Israeli ISIS killing Shias in Iraq as well.

• Iran supported the US against Sunni Baathist Saddam, but is supporting another Shia Baathist regime in Syria against the US.

• CIA created Sunni Jindullah against Shia Iran to launch insurgency and terrorism in Iran.5 Saudi funded, Pakistani sectarian groups also joined this anti-Shia jihad which is creation of CIA.

Complete destruction and chaos, ultimate outcome of Sectarian wars

• Saudia Arabia and UAE are the biggest financial suppliers of these sectarian militant factions. Still, the KSA and UAE are strategic partner of Israel and the US against Palestinian.

• OIC Says it cannot stop a state as small as Israel6 but the entire Arab world has no concern fighting against much larger Syria.

• The sectarian wars of the ME have reached Pakistan also. Sectarian killings and violence has increased during the recent years.7 If you praise Iran, you are branded as a Shia agent, else a Saudi wahabi terrorist.

• This is the insanity & complexity of the Middle East crisis. One can only be a NATO Sunni & a Russian Shia in Syria, a NATO Arab Shia in Iraq against Iranian Non-Arab Shia.

• The Syria crisis has divided the Muslim resistance movements as well. Hizbullah supports Bashar but Hamas is against Bashar.

• Terrorism is a crime against humanity. Islam has made it categorically clear in Quran. But unfortunately, today even such crime is condemned from a sectarian perspective.

Jundullah – A CIA creation against Iran!

There is either Sunni killings or a Shia genocide – What about Muslims?

Political Dynamics behind Sectarian Violence: A Modern History

By looking at this complexity of political-sectarian anarchy in the entire Muslim world, one might wonder; how things went wrong to such an extent? Why nobody was able to see this all coming? To find the answers, we will have to untangle the role of political powers, both regional and global, in instigating sectarian violence as a policy tool to serve their strategic political interests in the region.

1979 remains the most important year in modern history of Middle East. The events which took place during this years shaped the entire geopolitics of today. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, start of Iran-Iraq war and the Iranian Revolution were major developments which took place during that time period. Iranian revolution basically was a Shia revolution but was presented as Islamic revolution. Iran-Iraq war was presented as a war between Shia-Sunnis. These developments not only deepened the sectarian fault lines but also provided impe-tus for the Israeli Zionists to widen the fault lines within the Arab world using sectarianism as strategic tool. Internal political and nationalistic rifts within the Islamic world also helped the Zionist agenda. Oppressive regimes in Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Gulf states give rise to political centrifugal tendencies but as the all these

regimes were utterly non-democratic, cruel and unIslamic, they tried to oppress these forces through state power. This was the manifestation of Cold War era geopolitics. The US and USSR both were supporting their respective client states in Middle East. CIA’s operation Cyclone, in Afghanistan, enabled Langley to penetrate

Iranian Revolution was not Islamic but presented as one for political gains. Iran continued to receive Israeli weapons to fight against Iraq who were supplied weapons by the US in ten years

long Iran-Iraq war.

in both Shia and Sunni militant groups using Arab agents. This has been pithily put in words by Brig. (R) Samson Simon Sharaf

“CIA also got control of Takfiris to employ against the USSR. The scenario was often played in CENTCOM War Games warranting US intervention. Lawrence of Arabia lived a thousand lives in

these scripts.” 8

Till 1990's, there were three Socialist, pro-Soviet Baathist regimes in the Middle East. Iraq was ruled by Saddam, Syria by Hafiz ul Asad, father of Bashar and Libya was being ruled by Qaddafi. All 3 were secular governments, which hanged, killed, exiled hundreds of thousands of Muslims for demanding Islamic laws in their countries. Not only this, but they tortured and killed all those Mujahideen who returned home after Soviet Union was defeated in the gorges of Afghanistan. After 9/11, both Iran and Syria cooperated with the CIA in its torturous rendition programs9 and now both are on top of American hitlist.

Only occasion when the entire Muslim World displayed some kind of unity was during early 1970’s and 1980’s when Pakistan persuaded the Arabs to use the oil exports to the West as a strategic weapon. Ironically, almost every noticeable leader who participated in 1974 OIC’s Lahore Summit met with a horrible end. For-mer President of Pakistan, General Zia ul Haq, undoubtedly, was the last leader in the entire Muslim world who tried to bring Muslim Ummah in a united political fold. Unfortunately, whatever remains of the Muslim

world today, comprises only on political carpetbaggers and American touts. At that time, Saddam was a friend of CIA, fighting against Iran in the entire 1980's but then became an enemy of CIA when Iraq invaded Kuwait and the first Gulf war started. CIA used Saddam to destroy Iran and then used him again to attack Middle East in first and second gulf wars and finally hanged him after 2004. Through this systematic intervention in the Middle East, the US got herself in a position to reshape the entire political map of the Middle East based on the Sectarian lines. This is why Arabs and Egypt suffered so heavily in 1973 war against Israel. The borders of Israel expanded while Afro-Arab states like Egypt, Jordon and Syria shrunk.

Today, when the US intelligence apparatus in the Middle East has become too strong to be shaken, the entire Middle East political landscape has been divided based on what Counncil for Foreign Relation has called “Branches of Islam”, making it almost a child’s play for the CIA/Mossad/MI6 to manipulate whoever they want in the region!

Reaching out to both the Sunni and Shia regimes in Middle East -- President Zia’s diplomatic over-tures for the united Islamic block.

Present Chaos: Continuation of Previous Wars:

The historical analysis of sectarianism as a strategic tool, of the Zionists, dispels the prevalent erroneous im-pression that the present Middle East chaos is a new phenomenon. It may be new on the operational and tactical levels, but at the strategic and grand-strategic levels of warfare, this is just the continuation of the old wars. Means and Ways have changed only but the strategic goals remain the same!

Seeds of division of Iraq were sown in the First Gulf War, during the early 1990s, with the creation of an auton-omous Kurd region. Next step was to remove a strong leader like Saddam who somehow was able to keep the country united. Actual target was never Saddam but the Iraqi Army. Once incapacitated through few compro-mised generals, creation of Kurd autonomous region for more control over Iraqi oil was used as a psy-ops to instigate Iraqi Sunni insurgency, which erupted in 2006, to demand their own autonomous region – effectively breaking the country. After the fall of Saddam Iraqi Army was turned into an ineffective militia due to con-tinued sectarian tensions, promotion on the basis of ethno-sectarian kinship ties rather than professionalism, corruption on a massive and grotesque scale, poor command, control and communications systems because of the politicians’ mistrust of the officer corps.11

The Iranians cooperated in plans to instigate this insurgency by supporting the oppressive regime of Nur Al Malaki. Iraqis realized this and reacted against it, in 2010, by rejecting the Iran backed Shia political alliance. But this didn’t change much on ground as Baghdad government is a still predominately Shia regime. Sunni militants rebel against Baghdad, in a desperate bid to remove Shia regime and restore Sunni regime like Sadd-am, not realizing that he was not a Sunni but a Baathist. To make the matters worse, ISIS has been killing both Sunni and Shia further amplifying the crisis!

As a recruitment policy, Israel and the UK extensively used the idea of Takfir. They brainwashed Muslim youth

“Branches of Islam” – A strategic tool in war of ideas and belief. Often employed to divide and rule Muslims. (Source: Council on Foreign Relations)10

of Europe. A false notion that their version of religion would ultimately prevail over other Muslim sects and all the other Arab religions like Christians, Bah’ha’, Druz, Yazidi and Zoroastrians was instilled in their minds. Even they are not aware why they are fighting and now after realizing how they have been trapped, they are desper-ate to go back home12 but to prevent this reverse flux of these brainwashed Muslim youths, the US has launched a war against them after ignoring them for so long. This new war which is being waged in the deserts of Iraq and Levant shall push the entire region further into strategic swirl. Turkey has already announced to become part of this war. This decision is going to have long term strate-gic implications for the future ties between Ankara and Damascus.

Turkey has been fighting against the PKK insurgency for years now. A peace deal was reached between Ankara and PKK. To make it a reality, special law was approved by the Turkish government.13 Now when ISIS is advanc-ing towards the Kurdish town of Kubane near the Turkish border in Syria, PKK is asking Erdogan to fight IS if Ankara wants to save that peace treaty.14 ISIS creation has nothing to do with Turkey but due to this threat Tur-key has been forced to change its policy of "Zero Problems with neighbors". Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu devised this policy when he was Turkish Foreign Minister. Turkey started to forge the regional alliances with the Middle Eastern states and tried to end the international isolation of states like Syria and Iran.15 But now Turkey has decided to intervene in Syria and due to this decision the entire strategic equation has become even more delicate.

Today, Turkey stands at the same crossroad where Pakistan was after 9/11 when General Musharraf, as Pres-ident, had to decide about its Afghan policy. The decision Turkey has taken is also similar to what Pakistan did back then and like Pakistan, Turkey also has her own reasons. The outcome of this decision remains an enigma for now and which shall be unfolded in the coming weeks and months. The war in Syria is going to be protracted one. Israelis would do everything to push the ISIS brigades into Turkey turning 900 KM long Turk-ish-Syrian border in another geopolitical hotspot like Pakistan-Afghan border has become!

Future Dynamics:

In this entire Shia-Sunni, Arab-Persian wars, the net beneficiary is Israel, decimating the Muslim countries around it, expanding its political influence in the region. It looks like that Jordan, Saudi Arabia and perhaps Lebanon sans Hezbollah are onboard with this plan. Israel has an intrinsic vulnerability due to its thin geogra-phy and is in desperate need of some kind of strategic depth.

Israel has already shown her intentions to punish Hezbollah for resisting this Israeli expansionist plan.16 Israel is preparing for another war in the region. On the other hand, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naeem Kassem has rightly pointed to the fact that these takfiri groups are actually benefiting “Israel”, since they create sedition and internal fighting.17 Not only this, he succinctly analyzed that the differences between these groups and other groups are not religious, but are rather political.18

This trend will continue in the future as well unless Muslim states perceive this threat with the same sensitivi-ties all over the world. And for that, it is imperative to create some kind of union among Muslim states where

Various sectarian centrifugal forces tearing oil rich Muslim nation apart!

scholars of policy and strategy can deliberate on issues like Takfir and Khawarij as a tool of the western strat-egy.

Despite all the internal chaos within the Muslim world, there is silver lining on the horizon as well. The inter-national reaction over Israel’s recent aggression in Gaza has put Tel Aviv on the back foot. Now, Israeli troops are committing suicides and openly defying the policies of Israeli government. These developments have put Israeli government in panic to such an extent that Israeli defense minister Moshe Ya’alon had to declare the protest of 43 officers of elite intelligence unit of Israel, Unit 8200, as “vile and reprehensible”19 while the Intelligence and strategic affairs minister of Israel, Yuval Steinitz, had to declare it “an act of subversion that deserves punishment.”20

These dynamics of internal politics of Israel provide impetuses to the Muslim nations to initiate their own diplomatic overtures to build a cohesive narrative of geopolitical unity among the Muslim societies. This is a strategic imperative because the real target of the entire Middle East chaos is the social unity and political cohesion of the Muslim nations. If achieved, this unity of thought would be the first step towards the creation of a collective security and economic block within the Muslim world. Any such eventuality would be a secu-rity nightmare for Israel as Tel Aviv is well aware of the fact that once Muslims get united, overcoming their political differences, the security of state of Israel would be in complete jeopardy. After achieving this much needed political unity in the strategic thought process of Muslims, sectarian violence would also diminish inevitably. This would not be an easy task but time to act is now before it gets too late.

No Muslim sect has ever accepted the creation of Israel. This fact explains why it is critical for Israel and her allies to instigate infightings within the Muslim world using their political cronies and touts. This is what transpiring across the entire swathe of Muslim heartland. In reality, the war is political, not sectarian. Sooner we realize this, faster we will be able to rid of this menace of sectarianism.

Zionists are the real masterminds behind sectarian wars in Islamic World –Even their own confess!

Pakistan has a critical role to play to create a conducive strategic environment for the diplomatic overtures discussed above. A radical shift is required in Islamabad’s foreign policy to make these overtures and eventual rise of united state of Islam a reality.

Policy Options for Pakistan

• Pakistan’s foreign policy vision must be completely non-sectarian. There must be complete balance to-wards Pakistan’s diplomatic engagements with Riyadh and Tehran. Pakistan has already done that during Zia regime in 1980’s.

• Pakistan's interest lies in building the strongest regional blocks with Tehran, Riyadh and Ankara. The mutual distrust of Arabs, Iranians & Turks can only be pacified by a strong Pakistani leadership, which is supposed to have good relations with all 3 nations.

• Pakistan’s first priority should be the cessation of all support to military wings of sectarian outfits from Middle Eastern states followed by an independent foreign policy. Though it would be daunting task in the presence of current compromised regimes but there is no alternative line of action is available.

• Pakistan, Iran and Turkey need to revive the RDC in accordance with the dynamically changing strategic milieu in the region. Pakistan has relied upon the Arabs for too long now. It is time to bring in a structural reform in foreign policy. Events transpiring around Pakistan demand that Pakistan, Iran and Turkey to join hands to cope with these security and political challenges if not for the security of hapless Muslims in the Middle East, but for their own security.

• Russia and China have become crucial factors in the Eurasian geopolitics. Recent developments in Ukraine, Balkan and Black Sea regions clearly indicate that Russia is reemerging in the region with China re-storing balance of global maritime power in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. New Pakistani foreign policy must incorporate these facts as pivotal points. Pakistan needs radical adjustments in its foreign policy towards Moscow, Beijing and Washington. Right now, it remains too lopsided.

• Keeping the close bilateral security relations between Israel and India in mind, Pakistan needs to revisit its India policy as well. Indian involvement in the increased sectarian violence, particularly in Karachi, must be investigated vigorously. Since the creation of Pakistan, Indians have been using the same sectarian ruse against it which Israelis employed against the Arabs to make them fight each other.

Conclusion:

The entire sectarian chaos within the Muslim world actually is the manifestation of collision of political in-terests of various governments in the region. Unfortunately, most of these governments are working on the behest of Israel and the West. The final strategic aim of these artificially created sectarian wars is to protect the Israeli borders and whenever possible to expand these.

As new power centers are emerging on the grand chessboard of global politics, new opportunities of strategic outreach for the Muslim nations are also emerging. But to take advantage of these emerging opportunities, Muslim world would need to get rid of Cold War era strategic thought process. For Pakistan too, this is per-haps the only way forward to crawl out of this strategic pothole where the state is struggling for survival on daily basis.

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End Notes:

1. Dr. Yasir Qadhi,” On Salafī Islam”, Muslimmatters.org, 22nd April 2014, http://cdn.muslimmatters.org/wp-content/uploads/On-Salafi-Islam_Dr.-Yasir-Qadhi.pdf

2. “Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had resisted Iranian efforts to form a united Shia bloc. He led his own State of Law Coalition (SLC), a predominately Shia Islamist bloc with substantial secular elements. It competed against both the Iranian-aligned Iraqi Na-tional Alliance (INA) and the Iraqi National Movement, or Iraqiya coalition, a mixture of Sunnis and secular Shia nominally headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.”

Kirk H. Sowell, “Iraq’s Second Sunni Insurgency – Analysis”, Hudson Institute, 9th Aug 2014,http://www.hudson.org/research/10505-iraq-s-second-sunni-insurgency

3. Kevin Barrett, “ISIS: a Frankenstein monster created by the US and Israel”, 25th Aug 2014, http://www.darkmoon.me/2014/isis-frankenstein-monster-created-us-israel/

4. BBC, “Islamic State crisis: Abadi opposes Arab strikes in Iraq”, 1st Oct 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29447201

5. ABC News, “ABC News Exclusive: The Secret War Against Iran”, 3rd April 2007,http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2007/04/abc_news_exclus

6. Ikram Junaidi, “Arab states cannot stop Israel: OIC secretary-general”, Daily Dawn, 5th Aug, 2014, http://www.dawn.com/news/1123391

7. “Sectarian violence increased in 2013, says report”, Daily Dawn, 6th Jan, 2014, http://www.dawn.com/news/1078664

8. Brigadier (Retired) Samson Simon Sharaf, “Takfiri: The Arab sidewinder”, Daily Nation, 9th August 2014, http://www.nation.com.pk/columns/09-Aug-2014/takfiri-the-arab-sidewinder

9. Ian Cobain, “CIA rendition: more than a quarter of countries ‘offered covert support’”, The Guardian, 5th Feb 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/05/cia-rendition-countries-covert-support

10.“The Sunni-Shia Divide”, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/sunni-shia-di-vide/p33176#!/?cid=soc-twitter-in-infoguide-sunni_shia_divide-071514#!%2F

11. Ahmed S. Hashim, “Defeating IS: Will The Obama Strategy Succeed? – Analysis”, Eurasian Review, 17th Sep 2014, http://www.eurasiareview.com/17092014-defeating-will-obama-strategy-succeed-analysis

12. “British Jihadists Fighting In Syria ‘Regret Their Decision To Leave UK And Want To Come Home’, The Huffington Post UK, 5th Sep 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/05/british-jihadists-islamic-state-syria_n_5770400.html

13. “Turkey approves law allowing talks with PKK”, Aljazeera News, 15th Jul 2014, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/eu-rope/2014/07/turkey-approves-law-allowing-talks-with-pkk-2014715182324519257.html

14. “Massacre in Kobane would end PKK’s peace talks with Turkey: Öcalan”, Hurriyat Daily News, 2nd Oct 2014, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/massacre-in-kobane-would-end-pkks-peace-talks-with-turkey-ocalan.aspx

15. “Under “zero problems with neighbors,” the AKP government established economic and political alliances in the Middle East, forged strategic relationships with regional actors, took part in regional initiatives, and sought to play an active role in the resolution of regional conflicts. Turkey’s mediating role in regional conflicts won it favorable notice in the Arab world. For instance, Ankara’s efforts to break the isolation imposed on Syria and Iran by the United States were well received, contributing to Turkey’s image as an independent actor willing to defy Western powers if necessary.”

Dr. Gönül Tol, “Turkey’s Search For ‘Zero Problem’ Policy”, Middle East Institute ,25th Nov. 2013, http://www.mei.edu/content/turkey’s-search-“zero-problem”-policy

16. “Israeli army chief: Hezbollah poses greater threat than Hamas”, Al Arabiya English Website, 4th Oct 2014, http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/10/04/Israeli-military-chief-says-Hezbollah-poses-greater-threat-than-Hamas.html

17. Mariam Saleh , “Muslim clerics speak against Takfiri ideology”, Press TV, 4th Jul 2014, http://www.presstv.ir/de-

tail/2013/07/04/312146/muslim-clerics-speak-against-takfiri-ideology

18. Ibid

19. Calev Ben-David, “Israel Slams Soldiers Who Say They Won’t Be ‘Tools to Persecute’ Palestinians”, Bloomberg News, 14th Sep 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-14/israeli-officials-condemn-protest-by-intelligence-unit-soldiers.html

29. Ibid