01-BT Newsletter - Dec2014
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Transcript of 01-BT Newsletter - Dec2014
In this issue Issue 01Nov 23 - Dec 06, 2014
Nawaz Shareef is in a panic mode indeed. Desperate to gain domestic and international credibility, he is pushing his team to deliver at least something to justify their dwindling control to power. PTI calls to block the country is the most immediate challenge he faces but his woes do not end there. Power and Gas tariff hike, inflation, law and order crisis, terrorism, political chaos all adding to the crate the mayhem which is now seriously threatening his rule. He is nervous but tries to put up a brave face.
Pakistan army chief is now filling in for the failed political government. Presently on his visit to the US, the COAS of Pak army is receiving a red carpet reception from the US military leadership, who also respects the fact that entire US military strategy in the region depends upon support from the Pak military. Pakistans army chief is now in a commanding position within the country and in the international diplomatic and military circles. Pakistan army is now openly dealing with US, Russia and China independently, forc-ing the political government to sign landmark deals. General Raheel did not
Pakistans Security Analysis
News Brief &Analysis
Brasstacks Policy Paper
Advanced Threat AnalysisDefence and Security Advisors
Pakistan Security and Political Situation Report & Threat Analysis
By Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid
mince his words when he was in US. Pakistan is also using Chinese and Russian influence in the region to counter balance US pressures. Following tweet explains it all.
Tahir ul Qadri has been neutralized by Nawaz Shareef under a secret deal which sources confirm involve mon-ey and amnesty. Now IK alone stands in front of the government. He cannot afford to drag the protest as the weather has become harsh. Next few days would be messy indeed, especially for Punjab and Islamabad. More and more responsibility would come on the COAS and the DG ISI to manage the national security and political challenges. At one point, the army might decide to step in decisively to remove an incompetent incapacitated regime to bring in a new patriotic government. But that remains the call of the army alone to decide the red line of incompetence of the NS government.
Nightmares for Nawaz Shareef to continue for some weeks now. Imran has unveiled his plan C and has threat-ened final war against the government in his Sunday night rally in Islamabad. It was a formidable show of force and the tone, language and the demeanor were equally threatening to the government. The battle lines are drawn.
This is serious threat and trouble for Nawaz government. For the last few days, the government was in total panic al-ready, desperate to stop Imran and his diehard followers from coming to the Capital. From road blocks to the use of media and legal forces, all available means were deployed by the government but they had to suffer a humiliation on Sunday night as almost 100,000 people did make it to the massive PTI rally in Islamabad. There was no trouble inside the rally or in Islamabad but government used all means at their dispos-al to try to reduce the number of people reaching Islamabad.
Nawaz Shareef is now well and truly in trouble. His dwindling authority at home is being noticed internationally as well. Regional and global power are taking him less and less seriously, isolating him, abandoning him and deal-ing with the Pak army more and more. The fact is not hidden from the NS government who are visibly frustrated, angry and even blurting out their visible frustration.
On the issue of law and order also, the government continues to face crisis after crisis. Army is busy fighting its war in the tribal areas but the urban insurgents, political violence and civic unrest continues to haunt the govern-ment.Nawaz has now become a liability for the country. Army can either ask him to resign and then form a caretaker government or decide to ask Imran Khan to back off and then let Nawaz rule for as long as he can. But the second option would not just destroy the respect, credibility and image of the army leadership within the nation but would also destroy the country too.
Army chief raises issue of border violations by India
Pakistan, Russia sign landmark defence cooper-ation agreement
But one thing is definite now. Army cannot stay neutral else it would be responsible for destroying the state by allowing the local and foreign forces of chaos to operate without hindrance. This is the 5th Generation war, where states are destroyed not through the invasions but through implosions. Pakistan is imploding. Pak army must act and intervene decisively.
Indians are playing a dangerous game inside Pakistan and on the line of control in Kashmir. All pro-Indian par-ties have joined hands as well and have vehemently attacked Pak army over its operations in North Waziristan. All pro-Indian Deobandi clergy have also formed a larger alliance against Pak army. Indians are also pushing Americans to target Pak-Afghan border regions under the pretext of eliminating those men who are wanted by the Indians.
In Indian held Kashmir also, Hindu radicals are trying to bring their own man as ruler in the Muslim majority state. Clashes along the line of control also continue. Indians have also upped their sponsored violence inside
Pakistan from FATA to Baluchistan to Karachi. Pak army is fighting back. But these are all signs that a serious trouble is brewing between Pakistan and India in the coming days.
Indians are also aggressive, mobilizing all their military and political assets within Pakistan from MQM to BLA to TTP to political parties allied with India. Line of control in Kashmir is also volatile. Signs are very disturbing. A limited but fierce war is a real possibility in the coming weeks. Pak army will do well to be on guard. India is
Modis Hindu nationalists eye power in Kashmir. The facade of elections in Kashmir is part of RSS
agenda of Hindutva.
Anti Pakistan deobandi clergy joins Pro-Indian political plyers to further enemys agenda within
now visibly aggressive as well and the tone, body language and hostility of Indian leadership and army is signal-ing serious trouble on the western borders. In SAARC summit, Indian leader Modi did not even shake hands with Nawaz but at the end, Nawaz tried to rescue his own crashed ego.
Brilliant new strategy of Pak military which is sure to upset both US and India. India has been trying to build a case against Pakistan using its clout in the US. Pakistan army is counter balancing it with Russian and Chinese influence. The great game between major powers has just gotten into a high gear.
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News & Brief Analysis
Isis suicide bombers used Turkish territory to launch attack on Kobani, human rights group says
An Isis suicide bomb attack on the Syrian border town of Kobani was launched from across the border in Turkey, Kurdish officials have said.
Human rights observers from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights corroborated reports that fighters used Turkish territory
for the raid.
The Turkish government confirmed that a bomb-loaded vehicle was detonated on the Syrian side of the border at Kobani, but denied the
vehicle had crossed the border from Turkey.
It is almost impossible to vet any of these two opposite narratives of events which, according to reports, have claimed more than 40 people on both sides. Turkish made a choice to not to push back the ISIS when they first assaulted border town of Kobane inside Syria. Instead, Tur-key allowed Iraqi Kurds to fight against IS after crossing into Syria from Turkey. Turks hesitated to push back ISIS fearing that Kurds would get too strong in Northern Syria. That policy of Ankara of letting Iraqi Kurds using Turkish soil is now turning catastrophically wrong both on military and diplomatic fronts. It is almost impossible to keep a check on IS mil-itants not using cover of Iraqi Kurds and entering into Turkey while on diplomatic front, it will be very hard for Turkish government to justify her role in combat against IS.Domestically, Turkey would also be facing more problems regarding internal security. IS can launch a similar attack within the Turkey hiding itself as Iraqi Kurds and if that happens, Turkey will indulge into a com-plex and prolonged war. To make the matters worse, Kurds are also accusing Turkey for helping ISIS in bid to eliminate Kurds movement against Turkey.
Growth engine is stall