Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²°...

224
Àǯ½ ²ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯

Transcript of Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²°...

Page 1: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 2: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

.

. ,

, :

,

ISSN 1565-3250

601820 '

www.bankisrael.org.il

©

Page 3: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

" ' " ,2014 31

, 54 ,2013

.2010- "

,3.3%- 2013

, .

.2012- .

. , ,

.

; ,

. ,

, . ,

.

,

, .

. ,

. ,

. ,1.8%- 2013-

. ,

, :

. ,

. – .

, .

. , ,

2008 ,2012- , 6%-

. . 60%-

,

, .

. .

, ,

.

.

, , ,

.1% ,

Page 4: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

"

. -

, .

,

2009

, .

.

,

,2014- .

- . – – ,

– 3.1 .

.

,

. ,

.

- – , ,

, - , .

.

, .

, ,

.

,

.

:

, - , .

, ,

.

Page 5: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

'

2 ........................................................................ .1

5 .......................................................................... .2

12 ................................................................................. .3

14 ............................................................................... .4

18 ................................ – .5

24 ................................. .6

: '

32 ...................................................... .1

36 ................................................................. .2

43 ............................................................................ .3

47 .......................................... - .4

:1-'

50 .............................. - :

:2-'

54 ..........................................................

'

58 ............................................................................ .1

70 ............................................................................................. .2

75 ........................................... .3

79 ...... - – :1-'

'

84 ............................................... .1

86 ............................... .2

88 .......................................................................... .3

96 ...................................................... .4

102 ........................................................ .5

: '

.1

108 ....................................................................... ?

112 ...................... .2

118 .... ? .3

Page 6: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

'

124 ........................................ - .1

129 ................................................... .2

131 ............................................................................. .3

134 ................................................................................. .4

138 ............................................................................ .5

140 ...................................................................................... .6

142 ........ " " :1-'

:2-'

145 .................................... -

147 ............... :3-'

:4-'

150 ........................................................................... ?

'

:' -'

155 ........................................................................................... .1

158 ................................................................................................. .2

164 .................................................................................. .3

166 ............................................................................................. .4

:' -'

169 ........................................................ .1

174 .................................................................... .2

:' -'

183 ......... 2007 .1

.2

188 ..........................................

191 ............................................................... .3

.4

192 ................................................................ ,

'

196 ................................................................................. - .1

204 ............................................................ .2

208 ............................................... :1-'

211 ................... - :2-'

Page 7: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

'

4 ............................................... 2013 2009 , 1-'

( ) : 2-'

24 .....................................................................

30 ..................2013 2003 , - : 3-'

: '

32 ......................................2013 1995 , 1-'

34 ......................................2013 1995 , 2-'

36 ....................................2013 1995 , 3-'

37 ........................................ 2013 1995 , 4-'

, : 5-'

40 .................................................................................... 2013 1995

43 .....................................2013 1995 , 6-'

46 .............................. 2013 1995 , , 7-'

48 ................................2013 1995 , 8-'

'

1-'

60 .................................................................. 2013 2009 ,

73 ...........................2013 2009 , 2-'

76 .......................................... 2013 2009 , 3-'

78 ...................................... 2013 2009 , 4-'

82 ................................. 1-' -'

'

, 1-'

87 ....................................................................................2013 2003

2-'

89 .............................................2013 ,( )

( ) 3-'

94 .......................................................... 2013 2008 ,

4-'

102 ................................................2013 2010 , , "

Page 8: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

: '

108 ................ 2012 1996 , 1-'

, 2-'

114 ...............................................................

115 ................... ,baseline hazards ratio 3-'

121 .................. 2011 , , 4-'

'

, 1-'

125 ....................................................................................2013 2007

2-'

128 .................................................... 2011- 1995- OECD-

, , 3-'

129 ....................................................................................2013 2007

130 ....................2013 4-'

, 5-'

132 ....................................................................................2013 2007

140 ................................. 2013 2009 , 6-'

'

:' -'

155 .......................................... 2013 2001 , : 1-' -'

- 2-' -'

157 ...........................................................................................

: , , 3-' -'

159 .......................................................................................

164 ..............................................2013 2009 , " 4-' -'

( ) 5-' -'

166 ..................................................................................

:' -'

169 ........... ( ) 1-' -'

,( ) 2-' -'

170 ......................2012- 2001 ,

, 3-' -'

172 ............................................................................. 2012- 2001

172 ......2012- 2001 ,( ) 4-' -'

173 ..........................................................2012 , 5-' -'

Page 9: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

" 6-' -'

177 ...........................................................2011 2007 ,

, " 7-' -'

179 ........................................................... 2006 ,OECD-

:' -'

, 1-' -'

186 ...................2013 1981 , :

2-' -'

: ,

191 .................................................................. OECD-

'

- 1-'

205 ................... 2010 ,OECD- 29 ,

Page 10: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 11: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

1

'

• ,3.3%- 2013

.

.

. ; , ;

• . ,

. , ,

• , ,1.8%-

.

.

• ,6%- ,

.50%- 2012- 2008

,2013-

.

• , ,

.

.1%- 1.75%-

.

• .2012 0.7%- , 3.2%-

. , 1%-

,

.

• ,

. ,

.

• "

.

.

, , ,

.

• ( ) :

, ,

, ( )- ,

.

Page 12: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

2

2013 ,

.1

,3.3%- 2013

, ." "

,

, . "

.

.( ) ,

.

, , ,OECD-

, " 2011- , .

.

,

,

, .

, .

, . ,

,

.

, ;

.(1-' ) "

2011 .2008

. 2013- 2012- – 1

2010- .2011

, ,2011-

. ,

;

, .

. " ,

, – –

. , ,

, ,

.

, ,

.

. " " 1

1-' . .2011

2013 ,3.3%- ." "

, , .

, , . 0.25 , .

Page 13: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

3

:'

– 0.25

1% –

,

,

.

, "

2009-

, "

.

,

, :

.

,

.

,

"

.

,

.

.

,

.

.

,

,2014—2013 , .

.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-1 :

-12 ,2007 2013

: .

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

'-2 ,

,1999 2013

: -.

.

,

.

,

.

Page 14: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

4

2013 ,

,2012-

,( ) .

,

, .

.

1-' 2013 2009 ,

20092010201120122013

( ) 7.57.67.87.98.1

( , " ) 809 866 924 993 1,053

( , " ) 1081141191261311( , ) 63.572.380.784.885.71( , ) 58.669.182.985.283.1

( ) 7.97.23.30.87.2

( ) 5.33.62.73.93.2

( ) 75.371.569.768.267.4

( ) 3,054 3,159 3,252 3,359 3,450

( , , ) -2.60.70.40.50.8

( , ) 10- " 5.44.95.14.64.0

( , ) 10- " 2.92.22.42.01.6

( , ) 1.25.74.63.43.3

( , ) 2.25.03.83.23.7

( , ) 9.58.47.16.96.2

( , , ) -9.211.76.25.10.0

( , ) 3.92.72.21.61.8

( , ) 0.81.62.92.31.4

( , ) -0.4-0.70.3-0.1-0.5

( , ) 1.8-5.1-1.04.5-6.4

( ) 3.93.73.63.93.62100 " 88.814.9-20.17.215.1

( , ) -10.612.86.12.72.9

. 1

. – 2

. - , :

Page 15: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 16: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

6

2013 ,

. - ,

– – ,

.(' ) -

"

" .

.

. "

,( ) 15%-

15%- ,

" .

) ,

.(' -'

, 2.4%

. , ,

. ,

, ,( ) 8%-

. ,

. "

.

,

,

" " –

." "

.( .2 )

,

. .

, ,

; ,

.

. ,

: ," "

, ,

.

,

.( )

, .

. ,

,

.

, .

, .

Page 17: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

7

:'

, ,

,

.

,

, .

2011- 2004 . ,

20%—15%-

( ) ,

.(' )

.

. ,1.8%-

,

, .

. "

, , "

.

, , .

.4 25%-

, .

,

.

, .

. , .

, ,2011

. ,2013 ,2012 .2012

.

, .

, .

, .

,2013- , .5

. 2011-

;2013- 2012 2011

,

, .

.

2013 . 4

.

, , 5

. . ,

,1.8%-

.

,

.

.2012

Page 18: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

8

2013 ,

, 2011

, :

.(' )

.2008

,

. ,

,

, 2013- .( )

;

.

,2013

.2013 2012 .

2012- 2008 ,6%-

.2013 .50%-

. ,

,

.(3-' )

" ,

" .6

,

.

,

.

,

. 6

.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

'-3

" 1

1998 2013

4-3.5 ) (

-15-10 ) ,4 (

1 .

: .

.

.6%-

Page 19: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

9

:'

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

" -10 5

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

" -10 5

'-4 ,2008 2013

1 . , - ,MSCI - " 100, " - s&p-500.: Bloomberg .

2 -12 . -IFS . :IFS database .3 : – ; ," –Bloomberg ; – )

-2011 PPP ( : , ,' , , , .4 . :IFS database .5 :Bloomberg . : , , , , ,

.

"

) (

Page 20: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

10

2013 ,

, " 2013 .7 "

)

. 2013 .( "

.

)

, .(' -'

,

, , .

. ,

.

,

.

, , . "

, ,

. ,

, ,

CDS- ,

, . "

, , "

.

, ,

.

.

" , ,

. ,2013

" " 10- "

" .

.

2012 , - ,

, . ,2013

.

, " – "

, :8

, "

25% ,2013 7

: ..

. 2012 " 8

" .

Page 21: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

11

:'

. " 9

, " "

- .

.

,( ) ,

, . ,

. "

, " 2013

;

,

" . "

– .

"

. –

; 2%- 2013- -

, -

– .10

. -

( )

) 2008- ,

,11 : ( )- ,(5

. ;

. " ,

,

. ,

, ,

" " ( ) :(' )

( ) ; , "

( ) ;

, -

.FED- ,Federal Reserve- 9

, 10

" , " .(' )

. , 11

, , 2012 :

.(15%) ,25%-

.

2013

" .

-

2%- 2013-.

.

Page 22: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

12

2013 ,

.

, ,

– – .

,

.(' )

.3

,

2013 . ,

,

, 2013 .

. "

, ,

, 2013-

.

. , " ,

,

.2012- .

. ,

. ,

10- , . "

, , " ;

.7%- 4% 2013

: ,

,10.9%-

.

.

2015 :

. (ECB- )

,

.

– 0.25% – ECB- , .

.

, 6.7% 2013- , "

.

. "

, , –

. –

.

.

.

2013 ,. "

Page 23: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

13

:'

2-

.2008

.40%—20%-

– –

, . , "

, ,

, . "

. ,

, ,

,

2008—2007- .

,

2000- .

2013

.(' -' )

2030405060708090

100110120

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

) , (

"

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2 ) , (

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

) , (

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

) , , (

'-5 1 ,2003 2013

1 -IMF World Economic Outlook _ _ , -OECD ) -2008

(PPP : , , , , , , , , , , .2 -. .

: _ ; - _ IMF World Economic Outlook 2013, IFS Database, -OECD Database.

.

Page 24: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

14

2013 ,

.4

; ;

. ; ;

.

. ,

.

.

- .

,

– ;

. –

:

. .

,1%- 1.75%-

. "

.

, 2013

.

, , ,

.

. ,

. ,

,

,

. ,

,

, 2013- .(' -' )

, .

,2008 , .

,2009 ;

2011 .0.5%

3.25%- ; ,

, ,2011 .2011

. ,

.1% , 2013- 2012

. ,

.

.

.

Page 25: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

15

:'

, 2.3 2013 . 10-

. 0.8

– –

- ,

- . "

.

,

" " .

.

" "

" " – , .

" – 2018-

.12

, . , - ,

,

, .

, , .

. , "

; 2.8- 2013- , 12

. 2.1

- "

.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

. -10 ,2007 2013

-10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5 . ,2007 2013

-10 -3

70

80

90

100

110

120

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

. )(,

2007 2013

"

"

" )(

"

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

. -12

)"(

'-6

: .

Page 26: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

16

2013 ,

. .

, ,

,2012 .

,

, ,

. .

.

.

0.7%- , 3.2%-

.13 1%- , 0.6%- .2012-

, . "

.

, .

,2014- 2013

2014 ,

.

, ,

.

,

/ .

, ,

. ,

, ,

, ,

.

, , -

,2013

, .2014

, "

.

,( - ) :

.

.2014

" . " " 13

( ) " .

Page 27: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

17

:'

-

- .2014—2013

,

.

,OECD

.

, ,OECD

, ,

, .

. – , , –

– ,

.OECD –

, 25%- ,

– 2013 .60%- OECD-

– , " , ,

.(' )

. ( )

,14 2.5%-

.4%-

. ,

,

.

" "

. " " .2009

." "

, .

" " .

" " " " ,

.

.

, ,

,

.

.

,

) 50 , 14

2015 ,( ) .(67% 2014- 2013 ,

.

,OECD

.

, ,

.

)

(

.

.

Page 28: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

18

2013 ,

– , , – .

, "

.

.

, , "

, , .

,( ) "

,( ) ,( )

,( )

.( " )

,

, –

, .

.

,

. .

,

,

, .

.

,

– . ,

, ,

, –

,2012- .

. ,2013 ,

– .5

, (1995- )

.

(defined benefits)

,15(defined contributions)

. , 15

.

Page 29: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

19

:'

.

.16

:1995 .

, ( )

:1999- .

, .

,

, .

.17

2003- ,

, ,

. .

, .18

.19

.( )

,

, ,

.

– . ,

.OECD- –

, ,20

, OECD .

. , ;

" ,(2010) ' ' , : 16

,(2001) ' , ; , ,8 ," : ,( ) ' , - ," " ,"2003 : " ,(2008) ' ' , ; ,1998—1985 ,"2004—2002 " ,(2003) ' , ; , ,5

.108—84 ' ,71

: 2008 17

. .

. 18

3% ) 5% 19

,5% , , ,( .

, . 20

.

,

,

,

.

Page 30: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

20

2013 ,

7-'

.21 ,OECD

,2004

.

,( )

)

.(" " ,

,

.22

.

. ,

62 – ,24 23

. – 67-

90%- ,

, " 1,500- 2013- ( ) .

, ,

.

10 2%-

. 35 50% ,

90%- ,( )

. 21

. . 70 ,70—45 , . .70 15- : ( ) Mark . ,

.Keese, "A Method for Calculating the Average Effective Age of Retirement", OECD . 22

.

. 23

. ,

,68 .70 24

.70-

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

'-7

-OECD)( ,1972 12012

OECD - OECD -

1 '21. - 2011.

:OECD " .

90%- 90%- , .

Page 31: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

21

:'

,

.35% 2012

100%

.25 85%- ,

:

.

1985

15.5%

.

, 4%—3%

/

)

.(8-'

.

2006- .

,

.

2009 , 2006

.

,2006-

.

:

.

,

.2627%- ( ) 50%- 2040 .

,

, .

,OECD

.

.

, . 5% .

, .

, 57%

, .

10%- .

. 25

—2009 : " ,(2012) ' ' , ' ,' , 26

. ,"2059

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

'-8

, ,

1975 2013

) (

) (

: , .

.

.

.

Page 32: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

22

2013 ,

,

.

.

,

.

.

20-

,

.(9-' )

, .

/

)

.(

.

( )

,

2-' .

,27

,

,

,

.28

35-

,4%

.80%-

. 27

35 ; 80% : 28

, , ; ; ; ; ; 7,500- , ) 2% ;( , "

. ;6%-

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29

'-9 1 :

,2012

1 : , ,

, . , , . -100% .

: 2012.

Page 33: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

23

:'

.

,

.

25%-

) 4% 3%

, .(

.

; ,

. ,

.

.29

,

.

, . , "

. 29

2-' 1 ( ) :

,

217.5%319.5%

" 7,500

( )

" 15,000

( )

" 7,500

( )

" 15,000

( )

25

246384941

354465750

4635568604 570627568

35

255495953

367617267

4837789854 59692105100

40

260556560

375708177

49591103994 5114110124120

. 28 ; 1

. 2

. 3

. , 5 4

. :

,

.

Page 34: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

24

2013 ,

, , , .

.

, 30% , "

" ,

" . ( )

,

. , ,

; "

.

, ( )

. ,

– .30

. - –

.

; : ,

. , ;31

6%-

, .60-

. ,

, ,

35 . –

,(70% )

. .32

.

.6

,

, .

– .

. 30

.

, , . , 31

.

, 32

, . 2% – – , .

.

. .

Page 35: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

25

:'

. , /

. ,

,

. .

, "

.

) ,

, , , .(

.

,

.

:

• –

. , , ,

• –

.

.

• / " –

. , ,

:

, .

,33

, .34

, ,

, .

, , 33

- / , , . , , , , . ,

: .

Gray (1976), “Wage Indexation, A Macroeconomic Approach", Journal of Monetary Economics

Fischer (1977), “Wage Indexation and Macro-Economic Stability", Journal of Monetary Economics

: 34

Bonomo and Garcia (1994) “Indexation, Staggering and Disin ation", Journal of Development

Economics

Page 36: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

26

2013 ,

.35 ,

. , ,

,

. –

, ,

.36 -

,2%

. ,

. :

,

, :

, ;

, ,37

;

, 2002 ,

2007 ;

. 2008 ,

,

:

' ,2003

, .

, , , " )

" , 25% ( " ,

.38 15% –

– ,

25% " .

, 15% - " ,

, , .

, ,

, .

"

.

Ball (1988) "Is Equilibrium Indexation Ef cient?", Quarterly Journal of Economics : 35

" , , 36

: . -

Price (1997) "The Rationale and Design of In ation – Indexed Bonds" IMF Working Paper

. 2006- 2005- 37

, 2011 38

.4% – 2%

.

Page 37: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

27

:'

, :

; , "

, " ,

, , .

,

.

– –

. .

) ( ) 15-

, ,(

, .

, , "

,

.

, . , ,

.39

,

.

;

, .

. ,

– –

, , ,

.40

.

.

; ,2010-

: .

. ,

– –

,

39

, ..

: 40

, .

.

.

:

.

Page 38: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

28

2013 ,

2013 .

,2.5%- .

, 1.5%- ( )

, .(1.7%)

,

. 0.2%

, ,

; ,3%

, ,

. , ,

.41

. ,

:

• ,

(32%)

, 2% , .(65%)

.

,

-

.

.42 ,

• , , , –

, ,( )

/ .

.

. , 2%

2%- – (2012 2002) 10- 41

. ,

.136 ' , 42

.

Page 39: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

29

:'

3-'

2013

2003

, 1-

:

2007-2003 2012-2008

2013

"

OE

CD

"

OE

CD

"

OE

CD

4.8

2.92.2

2.83.9

0.8-0.3

0.63.3

1.7-0.4

1.2

2.91.9

1.62.0

2.00.0

-0.6-0.1

1.40.8

--

,

)

(

20.744.0

29.929.9

30.649.0

35.435.4

36.252.8

--

1.8

0.90.6

0.61.8

0.80.3

0.71.9

0.7-

- ,

64-25 75.1

79.0-

75.377.3

78.3-

76.278.8

--

-

11.5

5.28.6

6.57.9

8.39.7

7.76.2

7.512.0

8.0

(

)

0.82.9

2.22.5

3.22.1

2.12.2

1.51.5

1.4-

2(

) 33.3

10.238.3

23.932.1

12.641.6

26.429.4

--

-

(

)

19.122.6

21.3-

19.318.8

19.6-

19.719.4

17.9-

(

)

21.717.8

21.9-

21.315.4

20.2-

22.216.7

20.4-

(

)

2.6-5.2

0.5-1.2

2.0-3.2

0.5-0.7

2.5-2.5

2.6-0.2

3

44.936.2

47.139.2

41.542.6

40.949.8

40.338.7

49.541.7

34.125.8

38.134.7

30.424.2

37.934.0

30.3-

..-

3(

)

87.0

63.176.0

75.871.5

90.892.1

95.867.4

104.1106.4

110.3

.OE

CD

Eco

no

mic O

utlo

ok

-

,

O

EC

D-

1

.

2

.

-

3

.

OE

CD

,-

:

Page 40: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 41: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

31

'

:

• (3.3%)

,1.4%-

." "

• , ,

.

• ,

. .

. , "

• 2008

. 14%- 2007 20%- ,OECD-

• ,

.

• ,

.

.

,

.

, ,

.OECD-

• ,

. " 2%-

– 4.5% –

.

Page 42: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

32

2013 ,

.1

.

– 3.3% –

." "

; .2.5%-

, ,

.

,

, " .

: , ,

, "

.

, "

:

. ,

,

.1 .

.(' )

, ,

, " 1

.

1-'

( ) 2013 1995

-1995

200820092010201120122013

4.01.25.74.63.43.3

OECD- 2.6-3.63.02.01.51.0

1.8-0.53.72.71.51.4

OECD- 1.9-4.22.41.40.90.3

8.5-10.213.36.64.1-1.2

4.22.25.03.83.23.7

( ) 10.79.58.47.16.96.2

1.1-2.60.70.40.50.8

( ) -0.13.83.11.30.32.4

10.81.8-5.1-1.04.5-6.4.2008-1999 1

. OECD- , :

.3.3% – ,2.5%- .

Page 43: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

33

: :'

: .

,( )

.

,1.5%

,(1.8%) - 2011- 2010

.OECD-

. 14%- 2007 20%- ,

, : .

,

.

1-' .

,

. 2-' .

. " 2%- ( " )

. , - "

.

2.9%)

,(2-' ;2012- 3.2%

– 25%- – .

30%- – " .

, –

(" ")

) (tapering)

– ,2013 .(2014

. –

, ,

.2008

.

; 2008 ,

2008 ,

.

15%- ,

.(1-' )

" – ,

. –

,

.

, " "

,

.OECD-

,

.

,

.

.

Page 44: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

34

2013 ,

. " " ,

,

– .

. –

, ," "

. " ,

,

.

,

. , " "

.

. -

,

,(5-' )

. ,

0.6-

, - 0.3-

2-'

( ) 2013 1995

-1995

200820092010201120122013

2.6-3.63.02.01.511.0

6.0-12.111.74.71.021.5

"

3.0-2.82.51.82.81.9

2.1-4.42.01.6-0.71-0.7

5.63.17.56.24.924.5

8.8-8.314.78.85.525.0

6.7-10.612.86.12.722.9. 2013 1

. 2013 2

. OECD- ,(IMF) - :

" "" . . .

, - .

Page 45: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

35

: :'

,( ) .2

. -

, , "

. " ,

. .3" "

,

.4

, .

, ,

: " " , .

,

.5

" ,(2013) ' , 2

" ,(2014) ' , .87 ' ,". , ,"2012—2000

, " 3

http://www.boi.org.il/he/ : .2018 , NewsAndPublications/PressReleases/Pages/13052013m.aspx

. – ' 4

– " ,(2013) ' ' , 5

.87 ' ," -

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

) (

) (

'-

'

"

'-1 2013-2012 2007-2006

1 -OECD : -

1 , . : -OECD .

,

.

Page 46: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

36

2013 ,

.2

" .

" ,

2-' .

,2013 2010-

.

.(4-' )

.

. "

,

. 4-' ,

. 2011—2009- ,

.

,

.

3-'

( ) 2013 1995

-1995

200820092010201120122013

4.01.25.74.63.43.3

5.6-11.912.18.95.2-2.7

3.30.65.55.73.72.9

: 4.22.25.03.83.23.7

( ) 1.9-4.69.216.23.20.8

( ) -0.3-0.4-0.3-0.40.30.6

2.14.62.72.32.83.1

8.5-10.213.36.64.1-1.2. :

, " . .

Page 47: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

37

: :'

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-2 : ) (

) ( ,2006 2013

: .

4-'

( ) 2013 1995

(2012)

-1995

2008200920102011201220131 4.11.25.74.63.43.3

16.21.93.52.43.53.12.4

71.54.50.76.44.63.53.5

14.94.0-5.614.9-0.48.80.7

9.44.6-0.47.44.42.72.1

22.95.70.61.35.17.23.4

5.5-0.12.411.111.04.83.02 13.65.67.24.82.48.6

1.83.616.0-9.84.37.40.5

0.84.625.232.6-5.7-46.555.7 , 3-' - 1-' 1

..2013 2009- 2008-1995- 2

. :

Page 48: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

38

2013 ,

.

)

2013 (

.1.2%-

, ,

) "

.( , .1

,

,

2004

.( 3-' )

,2012—2010-

.( 3-' )

,2010

.( 3-' ) 2009- 2007

2013-

,

:

,

,

,

.

3-'

.

– – .

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

. , 2000 2013

)2000=1(

)2000=100(

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

75

100

125

150

175

200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

. ,2000 2012

OECD

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

. , 2000 2012

'-3

1,2 2000 2013

1 -OECD ", .

2 . , , , ) (

, . - -10% - .

: WTO) ( .

Page 49: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

39

: :'

2009—2007 ,(2006) ,

– . "

.

, :

.

-

. 0.2%- 1% , :

.6

. ,

3.0% ,6.1%)

, ,(

, . "

" ,

, .7

– .8

– ,

,

– , ,

. –

.

" ,

.(12-' ) ,

,

, .2011

, ,

.

. ,

" ,(2005) ' , ,2008 3-' 6

. , ,"

) 25%- ( ) " 7

, , ,( , , .( 30%—25% 10%) 60%—50%- ( )

.(2013 )

, 3%- 2011—2005- 8

.8% (2005—1999)

.

.

,

.

, "

,

.

,

.

Page 50: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 51: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

41

: :'

– ( )

.

.

,

4-' .10

(2) 11 (1)

.12

.

3.1% , ,

1.8%- ( ) 2005- 1996 .2006

, ;

, DSGE- 10

Argov, E., A. Barnea, A. Binyamini, E. Borenstein, D. Elkayam and I. Rozenshtrom (2012) MOISE: A

DSGE Model for the Israeli Economy, Bank of Israel, Research Department Discussion Paper No.2012.06.

" ,' , 11

. ," - :

12

;(2007—2006) ,2011—2010 ,2012 ; ,2009—2008 . , , ,

.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

0 20 40 60 80 100

)(

'-4 2007-2006 2013-2012

1 , 2006 )(

,

,

,

1 -2007-2006.

: .

.

.2006

Page 52: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

42

2013 ,

. 3.1%- .

. ,

. ,0.8%-

. ,(5-' )

.5.2%-

. 5-'

– -

.(2013- 1%- 2011- 16%- )

,

.

;" "

.

1.5- 2013

, . ,

, ,

.

, , .

,

. ;" "

, ,

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-5 : ) (

) (, 2007 2013

: .

, -

. , .

Page 53: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

43

: :'

.

.

, , ,

, ,

.

,

)

.(

. – –

;

. , ;

.3

.

,

,

.

6-' 2

( ) 2013 1995

-1995

200820092010201120122013

4.01.25.74.63.43.3

: 4.50.76.44.73.43.5

1.93.52.43.53.12.4

5.44.23.03.75.25.2

2.72.02.41.83.22.0

2.82.02.62.03.01.9

0.8-1.93.52.0-0.21.21( ) 4.83.22.83.75.53.5

1( ) 4.8-2.34.25.92.51.21 0.0-5.41.32.1-2.8-2.3

( ) 65.560.861.662.961.159.7

0.1-1.7-0.7-0.1-0.6-1.2.2013-2009- 2008-1995- , 1

. – , 2

. :

Page 54: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

44

2013 ,

– , , – -

. ,

2013- ,

,4%

: .

. ,

,

.

,

. ,

, ,

.13

.2003—2001 ,

2013 (6-' )

,1%- . ,2012

.14 - ,

. ,

, ,

. –

.136 ' , 13

. 14

. - ,

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-6 ,2008 2013

: .

. –

.

Page 55: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

45

: :'

,(4%- )

) ,

. ,(6-'

.15NAIRU-

.

.

,

,

.

,

.

. " "

, :

" " ,

– , ;

. , –

, ,

– :

, – 16

.

. ,

.

.17

.

9- (' )

. " ,(5-' )

, ,non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment 15

, - " , ' ' , (. ) .2013.04 , , ,2011—1992

, 16

. , 2012- .

.2012.09 , , ," " , ' ' , 17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

03/1

992

09/1

993

03/1

995

09/1

996

03/1

998

09/1

999

03/2

001

09/2

002

03/2

004

09/2

005

03/2

007

09/2

008

03/2

010

09/2

011

03/2

013

'-7

-NAIRU,1992 2013

NAIRU

: . -NAIRU )2013(. 15.

,

.

" "

.

.

Page 56: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

46

2013 ,

"

, .

,

.

,

.2 , .

,

.2

.

)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-8 1 ,2006 2013, )2006=100(

1 , , . 18 .

: .

, , .

, , .

7-' ,

( ) 2013 1995

-1995

200820092010201120122013

19.521.320.921.121.021.9

:-0.5-2.7-1.4-0.6-1.6-0.9

19.923.922.321.722.622.8

19.817.417.919.820.619.5

:13.412.912.714.10.30.1

5.45.15.56.014.213.3

1.0-0.6-0.4-0.26.26.0

-0.43.83.11.30.32.4

:-2.42.81.7-0.50.21.2

-3.1-2.5-2.2-1.7-3.1-1.9

5.13.53.53.43.33.11 0.110.4-4.4-6.76.51.3

1 20.81.8-5.1-1.04.5-6.4. 1

.2008-1999 2

. :

Page 57: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

47

: :'

, (8-' ,18

,

." " –

- .4

.

, 2011

, ,(6-' )

.(9-' , )

.2007 ,

, 2008

, .

"

, ;

,

, , .

.

. , "

, , – - 18

- – .

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

12/1

999

07/2

000

02/2

001

09/2

001

04/2

002

11/2

002

06/2

003

01/2

004

08/2

004

03/2

005

10/2

005

05/2

006

12/2

006

07/2

007

02/2

008

09/2

008

04/2

009

11/2

009

06/2

010

01/2

011

08/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

05/2

013

) (

'-9 ) ( , ,

4 ,2000 2013

: .

.

Page 58: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

48

2013 ,

.

, (8-' )

, .

. -

(64-25) ;

,

.

8-'

( ) 2013 1995

-1995

200820092010201120122013

(15+) 2.31.81.71.81.61.8

( ) 59.862.162.662.663.663.8

2.72.02.41.83.22.0

( ) 54.056.657.658.259.259.8

( ) 10.79.58.47.16.96.2

(64-25) 2.91.12.11.61.11.3

( ,64-25)76.777.177.578.678.8

( ,64-25) 70.771.872.874.074.5

( ,64-25) 8.37.26.15.95.5

2.90.73.32.83.12.9

:3.00.43.11.92.62.2

2.61.33.64.94.04.3

2.92.22.72.62.62.3

:2.82.02.62.03.01.9

3.32.83.04.71.13.4

0.11.5-0.6-0.2-0.5-0.6

:-0.11.6-0.50.10.4-0.2

0.71.5-0.6-0.2-2.8-0.8

4.70.73.43.82.22.6

1.1-2.60.70.40.50.8

. :

, ; .

Page 59: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

49

: :'

: .

,

.

.(8-' 10-' )

.

;

.

( )

:

,

.19(11-' )

:

,

.

,

,

) , .(12-' )

. (13-'

, . .

. 19

, 11-' .8-' , , .

.

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

I/20

05

I/20

06

I/20

07

I/20

08

I/20

09

I/20

10

I/20

11

I/20

12

I/20

13

) (

) (

1 _ ;

_ . : .

5.1

'-10 1

, )64-25( , 2005 2013

74.8

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

03/2

005

11/2

005

07/2

006

03/2

007

11/2

007

07/2

008

03/2

009

11/2

009

07/2

010

03/2

011

11/2

011

07/2

012

03/2

013

'-11

, ,2005 2013 )2005=100(

: .

.

.

.

Page 60: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

50

2013 ,

:

.

, . ,

.' .

8,100

8,200

8,300

8,400

8,500

8,600

8,700

8,800

8,900

9,000

03/2

005

11/2

005

07/2

006

03/2

007

11/2

007

07/2

008

03/2

009

11/2

009

07/2

010

03/2

011

11/2

011

07/2

012

03/2

013

11/2

013

'-12

,2005 2013

: .

" , 2010

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

06/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

12/2

007

06/2

008

12/2

008

06/2

009

12/2

009

06/2

010

12/2

010

06/2

011

12/2

011

06/2

012

12/2

012

06/2

013

12/2

013

" -

-

- " -

'-13 , ,

, , 2006 2013

)2006=100(

: .

: :1-' -

– –

14%- 2011- , 2012 1-' .

.24%- ,OECD-

. 1 .

,OECD-

.

, , 30%- 50% 2 ,1

; , 40%-

Brand Gilad, Israel's Growth Paradox: Declining Productivity and Returns to Human Capital, The Milken Institute Fellows 1

.Program, 2014

OECD- , 2

,OECD- . . .

Page 61: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

51

: :'

) 3 .

. , .(

. , .

: ,2

, , .

. 3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

1 -OECD

, 2007

,

-

"

: -,OECD .

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

2 -OECD

, 2007

,

-

"

: -,OECD .

Page 62: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

52

2013 ,

, , , , ,

.

. ,

, .

– , :( )

. .

OECD- . 1

, , ,

. OECD- .4

. ,

,

:OECD- 5 .

. " 4

, , , . - " 5

. ,

1 ,OECD- ,**

2011

*

OECD-

OECD-

OECD-

-44.312.88.92.11.51.80.7

( 20%) -39.019.115.42.66.31.23.1

(20%-50%) -28.314.913.73.06.22.73.5

( 50%) 3.535.823.817.411.916.25.4

-31.59.613.13.55.13.13.3

-23.315.415.92.35.40.70.6

-43.7------

-5.352.545.317.319.32.90.9

" 34.033.43.78.22.12.3

, 0.066.555.635.945.633.017.7

16.918.21.75.50.20.8

-29.039.229.622.417.120.36.8

35.916.118.47.116.22.6. - *

.OECD- **. :

Page 63: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

53

: :'

– ,

, .6OECD- –

.

, .

.

.

. 7

,8 2011- 1995 ,3

.9 ,

. ,

. ,

.

; ,

, ,

.10

,

.

,

.

, .

,

,

.

,11 ,

.

,

. ,

, . , 6

, ) , .( ,

. , - 7

– 8

. , –

2011- 2004 , 9

. 2010 .

. OECD- 10

, 11

.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

3

1995 2013) 1995=100(

,

Page 64: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

54

2013 ,

:2-'

2013

, .(System of National Accounts 2008) -

.1 7%- " ,2012—2006

,

. ,

. , ( " )

. "

-

, " ,

, .2 ,

" , "

.

"

,( ) .

, .

(" ") , "

.

.3 , 2%-

, " , "

. - "

, , " -

4.5% " : ,OECD-

,(80%) , .2%- OECD-

. - ,(1 ) "

. " , " 15%-

, " ) " :

,(

,OECD- .

.(2 ) -

, - 1

) ,(2011 ) . : .( - , (4.5%) ,( 15% )

.(3.5%)

" 1% .Romer (1990), Helpman (1992), Griliches (1998) : 2

, " ,0.3%—0.1%- (TFP) .Nadari (1993), Guellec and Potterie (2001) .

,( 1.5%- ) : " 3

.( 2%- ) " ,( 1.6%- )

Page 65: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

55

: :'

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

"

2 " , _

,2011

"

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

OE

CD

"

' '

1 " , _ ,2010

" "

Page 66: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

56

2013 ,

" , 4.5%- "

" ." "

) "

" , .( "

. - ,

, ; , " ,

" .4 , "

,( " ) OECD-

"

.

:

.4 ' , : , ,(2013)

Coe, D. T. and E. Helpman (1995), "International R&D Spillovers", European Economic Review,

Vol 39.

Romer, P.M. (1990), "Endogenous Technical Change", Journal of Political Economy, Vol 98.

Griliches, Z. (1988), "Productivity Puzzles and R&D: Another Non-explanation", Journal of

Economic Perspectives, Vol 2.

Guellec, D. and B. P., Potterie (2001), "R&D and Productivity Growth: Panel Data Analysis of 16

OECD Countries", OECD Economic Studies, No. 33.

Nadiri, I. (1993), "Innovations and technological spillovers", NBER Working Paper Series No. 4423.

) . , 4

) ,( 270 , " 320 2012 , .(2012 8.9 , " 28

. ,

Page 67: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

57

'

• .1.8%- 2013-

. ,(3%—1%)

:

. –

,

.

• ,

, .

, 1%- 1.75%

. ;2011

, .

.

• 2012- , " 2013

. ,

"

.

. ;7%-

2013 ,

.2014 ; , "

, – –

.

Page 68: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

58

2013 ,

.1

.

,

.2011 –

.

.

, – –

2013 .

. ,

" .

2013 . ,

,Federal Reserve- ) – –

, 2014 (FED-

" .

. ,

, "

.OECD- , .

;3%—1%)

;(1-'

,2013 1 .

, . 2012-

.

) 1%- 1.75%- ,

– – ;(2-' 1-' -'

. ,

,2012

. " 2013

, "

"

– , .

. –

,

, -

.

. , 1

" .

Page 69: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

59

:'

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

'-1 -12 , ,

2008 2013) (

-12

10

: .

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

'-2 1 " ,

2008 2013) (

"

1 . : .

Page 70: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

60

2013 ,

1-' 2013 2009 ,

2013

20092010201120122013IIIIIIIV

( ) .

.11-31-31-31-31-31-31-31-31-31 .23.92.72.21.61.80.15.22.00.0

2 .31.92.32.01.13 .41.82.92.72.31.82.61.81.41.5

3 .52.32.52.52.32.32.32.32.32.3

3 .61.82.72.82.31.81.91.91.91.73( ) .

.10.81.62.92.31.41.81.51.21.04 " .2-0.4-0.70.4-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.4-0.2-0.6

5 " .35.44.95.14.64.04.23.94.13.9

5 " .42.92.22.42.01.61.61.51.81.66( ) .

.13.5-7.13.60.6-7.8-3.7-1.9-1.7-0.8

.2-2.1-4.94.70.1-7.2-2.2-1.7-1.9-1.6

.36.3-13.94.2-0.3-3.1-3.4-0.1-0.60.96( ) .

(M1) .152.14.61.68.715.33.62.87.20.8

( , ) .

.19.58.47.16.96.36.66.76.05.87 " .21.25.74.63.43.32.24.71.82.7

8 .377.874.472.471.672.6

. . , 1

. .(2010 1 ) 2

. 3

. ,0 4

. ,0 5

. 6

. 7

. 8

. , :

Page 71: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 72: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

62

2013 ,

( ) ;

," " ( )- ;(' )

, .

. ,

.(' )

.(' ) 2013

,4 3

2011 , .

, – (' ) 2004 –

.

(3)

,

, 2008- .

.

, ,2013-

– .

, , –

credit) ,(quantitative easing)

.5 " (easing

. ,

,

2013 .

. ,

– 2013- 0.8%- 2012- 2.7%- – 12% –

(ECB- ) , .2%-

0.25%

.(3-' ) 6

"

, FED- " .

. , (tapering)

, " " ( , )

,

, .((1). .1 )

. , FED-

.65 24 – 3

. , 4

, " : " 5

.2013

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ ,2013 ECB- 6

press/pressconf/2013/html/is131107.en.html

, , .

.

, .

Page 73: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

63

:'

,77%- , – 18-

.2014 FED- –

, FED-

, – –

FED- .(81.1% ) 2%

6.5%-

.92%-

2013

– ,2013 ,

. –

. ,

, ,

. :

,10 . ;

. 7

FED- . , ,PCE- 8

.2% ,

– (forward guidance) 9

FED- . , FED- .

. ,

. , , 10

. , :

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

'-3 ," ,

2008 2013) (

*

-ECB

-FED

* :" ) 0.49( , ) 0.32( , ) 0.13( , ) 0.06.(

: , )-ECB ( )-FED.(

,

.

taper-) (ing

;.2014

Page 74: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

64

2013 ,

. ,

,

.

.

. ,

" (4)

;117.2%- – ,6.7%- 2013

– , " .(4-' )

"

, –

.

( )

, . (basic account)

.(5-' ) 12

2013- .

.

. ( )

2011- , ,

. " "

.2012 2013 11

.net FDI, foreign direct investment 12

82

86

90

94

98

102

106

110

2.80

3.30

3.80

4.30

4.80

5.30

5.80

,2.1.2008=100

'-4

,2008 2013) (

- ) (

- ) (

) (

: .

. .

Page 75: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

65

:'

,

. 2012-

: , CDS- ,

- , –

104 ( ) 2012 138 –

.( ) 2013

, ,

, (3-' ) ,13

, .

2011- , ,

.14 "

,

– –

,(overvalue)

, 2012- , "

.

2.92 2013 .

, ,ECB- 13

.

.' ,2011 14

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

,2.1.2007=100

'-5 :

,1999 2013) ,4 (

) (

: .

Page 76: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

66

2013 ,

, .15

, , 0.25- – – 2013

.

,

.

.

,

.17 16

,

,2008 ,2008 – "

– 2009

, .18

.19 0.7-

.

, ,

. ,

. .

– – ( )

, -

, , , .

.

. ,

. 60- ," "

" ,

. ,

2013 .

, 2.1-

– 2014- . "

,2018 . 3.5-

. , 15

Kamil, H., (2008): "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? 16

The Case of Colombia", International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper WP/08/88.

Adler, G., Tovar, C. (2011) "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?" 17

International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper WP/11/165.

Disyatat, P., Galati, G., (2007) "The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from the Czech Koruna" Journal of International Money and Finance 26(3), pp.92-123.

,86 ,"? " :(2013) . , 18

.45—7 ' , "

Flug, K., Shpitzer, A. (2013): "Rethinking Exchange Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy: the 19

Israeli Experience During the Great Recession", BIS Papers NO 73, 189-204.

, " .

Page 77: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

67

:'

. (sovereign wealth fund)

" , ," "

. ,

(5)

: 2011 , 2013—2012

,8%- ( ) 20

75%- – 21 .(' -' ) 2012- 8.7%

,3.2%- – 20%-

.22

.

.

.

23 ,

. ,2011

, ,2013

, , .

,

.

,

– .

, .

.

( ) - –

– 2012—2010

, , .(' -' )

,

.

,

, , 5

.

.

. " " " 20

. " " 21

.' ,2012 22

23

.2% .

2013—2012 , 2011

.

.

.

Page 78: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

68

2013 ,

.

(1)

,

. , ,2008

, (6-' )

, .

2013 .

,

.

, "

. "

, , ,

. –

,

.(' -' )

, ,

,

. ,

( ) : 24

,

( ) ; ,

,

( )- ;

"

.

– –

.

" 10-

, .(6-' )

FED-

,

treasury) " 10-

, (inflation-indexed security

, .0.4%- -0.2%-

" ,

. ,0.5%

– – " :(2014) , . ,. , 24

. ," ?

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

'-6 "

) (-10 ) /"(, ,

2013 2013

" " -10

" -10

"

: .

Page 79: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

69

:'

, 0.7%-

.2014 FED-

, 1.9%- 1.4%- , 10-

. - ,1.5%-

.(' -' )

;

- ; " ;

.

(2)

(9-' ) 2012

, .25(Taylor rule)

.27 26 ,

, 28

.29

,

.30

,2008 ,

,

.

,

. ,

,

, "

,

Taylor, J. B., 1993. "Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice." Carnegie-Rochester Conference 25

Series on Public Policy 39, pp. 195-214.

. 26

.2-' ,2011 . . " Hodrick-Prescott

. 10 5- , " 27

, . . ,

. , – 28

Svensson, L.E.O. (2003): "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Mon- : 29

etary Policy through Targeting Rules." Journal of Economic Literature 41: 426-477.

, , 30

.

.

,

, "

,

;

.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

'-7

, 2003 2013

: .

Page 80: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

70

2013 ,

, 31 " .7-'

. , " ( )

" ,

, ,

.

. 7-'

"

. " :

, – " –

.

.2

.

– 1.8%- 2013-

.(8-' ;3%—1%) 2003

,

,2012

.

,

, "

, .

,32

,

,2013 2012

.331.3%- 2013

, ,

; ,( )

" Livingston Survey- 31

. - ..2013 2003

, 32

. , . 97%- ,

. ,

,. , : , , 33

,2012 .169—125 ,84 ," " ,2010. ,'

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-8 -12 –

, 2008 2013

-

,

: .

,( ) , , . , .

Page 81: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

71

:'

.(9-' )

. 0.7 2.9%-

.34

. 0.4 3.9%-

2012- .

– , –

.(-2' ) ,

) –

2011- – (" "

.

. ," "

.(5) ' ,( ) 1 , 34

1.8

11.8

3.3

2.9

3.9

-2.5

-1.8

2.2

0.8

-2.0

4.5

-5 0 5 10 15

'-9 ,2013

)(

1.8

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.3

0.0

-0.4

0.2

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

'-9 ,2013

) (

: .

Page 82: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

72

2013 ,

. 0.5 3.3%-

, 2013

. (10-' )

,

. " ,

, , "

1-' )

.( "

.

6.2%-

2012- . , , –

,

. , 4—3

, 5.4% ,4.5%-

.

– 7.1% – 6.4%- ,

.

.

.

, ,

, ,

.

.

. 2013-

.

, , .2011

.35 ,

. , ,

.36(' ) 2012

. 35

. ,

,' ) 2012 36

.( .2

, . .

Page 83: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

73

:'

2-'

2013 2009 ,

,

1

, , 2

( ,

,

)

20093.9

8.41.1

5.65.2

-1.2-4.4

1.42.5

6.54.5

13.03.6

3.42010

2.716.0

2.04.9

-1.2-2.8

4.51.5

0.62.0

3.2-0.4

3.12.5

20112.2

-8.12.3

1.59.3

-0.42.1

-0.32.6

1.71.3

9.21.6

2.12012

6.1-1.7

4.03.3

7.4-1.4

0.4-2.9

2.5-0.4

5.46.5

0.80.9

20138.1

11.83.3

9.29.3

-2.5-1.8

2.20.8

-2.04.5

1.61.6

1.3

( ,

)

2013-0.2

5.70.2

-0.10.5

0.0-8.1

0.0-0.4

-0.40.1

-0.2-0.3

-0.40.1

0.01.1

1.1-0.4

0.20.5

-5.9-0.1

0.50.2

0.02.1

-0.4-0.5

0.2

0.2-2.9

-0.40.8

-0.2-0.4

-1.00.9

-0.20.5

-0.40.8

0.20.4

0.2

0.43.1

1.00.9

0.4-0.4

3.8-0.2

-0.1-0.9

0.1-2.8

0.60.5

-0.3

0.1-0.2

-0.20.3

0.90.1

0.10.5

0.3-1.1

3.2-1.2

0.30.3

0.0

0.80.4

0.80.3

1.5-0.5

5.90.3

0.51.0

0.93.4

0.60.6

0.8

0.33.3

0.41.0

0.3-0.5

-8.00.6

0.30.3

0.2-0.5

0.40.4

0.2

0.2-2.3

0.20.7

0.1-0.2

-3.70.9

0.50.3

-0.21.2

0.10.1

0.1

0.0-0.3

0.5-0.1

0.1-0.6

-0.80.0

0.20.1

-0.31.8

-0.3-0.1

0.2

0.35.9

0.40.1

0.10.8

6.40.3

-0.1-1.4

0.6-2.9

0.60.2

0.1

-0.4-3.5

-0.7-0.3

0.0-0.7

2.3-0.6

-0.1-0.5

0.1-0.7

-0.3-0.2

-0.1

0.11.5

0.1-0.3

0.0-0.6

9.1-0.5

-0.5-0.1

0.10.7

0.00.2

0.2.

,

1

(.2010

1

) .

2

.

:

Page 84: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

74

2013 ,

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

'-10 ,

,2008 2013

) 2008=100(

) 2008=100(

) (

:Bloomberg .

– 37

.(' )

,

.

, ,(commodities)

.

,

:( ) ,

2013

. ,

,

, ,2011

2010

.(10-' )

,20%-

, ,

.

. ,

. ,2011- , ,1.6%

:

, , "

, ;

, .38

1% ;0.35- 0.1

– ,0.35%- 0.1%

.39 , " ,

– 37

. – NAIRU- ,NAIRU – Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment)

Yakhin, Y., Presman, N., : (. 2013. "A Flow-Accounting Model of the Labor Market: An Application to Israel." Bank of Israel,

Elkayam, E., Ilek, A. (2013): "Estimat- : Research Department, Discussion Paper. Forthcoming. ing the NAIRU using Both the Phillips and the Beveridge Curves", Bank of Israel, Research Depart-

ment, Discussion Paper No. 2013.10.

, 38

, . ; "

.

: 39

Argov, E., Barnea, A., Binyamini, A., Borenstein, E., Elkayam, D., Rozenshtrom, I., 2012. "A DSGE

Model for Analysis of the Israeli Economy (MOISE)." Bank of Israel, Research Department, Discus-sion Paper No. 2012.06.

, . .

Page 85: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

75

:'

,

.

,

,2012

.(2-' -' )

.

,

.40 40%- ,

,(11-' )

2013- ;412005

,3.1%-

– – .

, " .

, .

.

.3

.

, –

.

,

.

/ . /

. ,

, " M1

.(3-' ) 52%- ,2009

" . , - 40

.1989 ,89.11 ' , , , ," " . , , . ," :

.' , , ,

. 41

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

'-11

,1999 2013

) , (

-

-

: .

Page 86: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

76

2013 ,

1998- , M1

,422013

M1 "

.

2009-

. "

2009 -

, "

.

,M1 , – M2- M1

.(12-' ) -

,

,

, "

, -

.43

( ) . 42

– M1- " , – . . " ,

.

.2012 ' 43

0.15

0.18

0.21

0.24

0.27

0.30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

M1/M2

"

'-12 ,2008 2013

) (

) ( M1/M2

: .

M1 , ,M1- M2- 2008 .

3-' 2013 2009 ,

( , , )

121+2=34563+4+5+6=7

"1M1 3 3 " 3 "

4 "2M2200919.919.675.352.1-4.41.840.213.620106.37.63.24.64.016.2-4.53.6201112.311.5-3.41.614.525.44.510.520129.213.45.98.77.98.57.98.220136.53.922.515.3-1.30.316.56.62013

I8.010.818.015.22.31.519.67.8II4.97.314.211.50.34.214.65.6

III5.95.818.113.4-2.67.515.95.2

IV6.53.922.515.3-1.30.316.56.6. " =M1 1

. + " + M1=M2 2

. 3

. - 4

. :

Page 87: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

77

:'

) ,2012 2010 :2009-

, , ;M2- M1 ,(2009

.2009 ,M2- M1

-0.85 2014- 2000

.M2- M1

, 2013-

.(3-' ) (15.2%)

.

,

.44 "

, , .

.

" " , , ,

.

,

, . " ,45

.( )

" 2011 2008- .2008

" 2009- ;(4-' )

, .

.

2010 , 2011- 2009

2013 2011 . "

2013 .

2.92 , , "

, 2.1 .

. ,

, "

, , . ( " )

, ,(4-' ) "

. " 6-

, , " 44

.

. 45

, "

,

, .

,

, " .

Page 88: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

78

2013 ,

4-' 2013 2009 ,

( " )

2013

20092010201120122013IIIIIIIV

.1-14.201.42-2.14-9.13-10.45-12.01-10.52-0.5712.65

:-14.950.60-2.61-9.67-10.45-12.01-10.52-0.5712.651 .278.2243.0615.90-0.2319.190.109.014.975.11

:77.4143.7516.170.0019.040.008.994.955.10

(1+2) .364.0244.4813.76-9.368.74-11.91-1.514.4017.76

.4-58.85-32.96-7.5010.05-2.4117.050.95-6.22-14.20

:0.42-0.420000000

"4.96-47.2716.658.15-6.35-3.49-2.54-0.630.32

000000000

"-63.1913.13-27.63-1.002.0020.003.00-6.00-15.0020.421.252.892.301.220.400.340.260.22

" 18.0000000000

-2.0100000000

.55.1411.516.080.756.445.34-0.87-1.533.50 . , ( ) " ( ) , , 1

. , ,

. " 2

. :

Page 89: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

79

:'

- – :1-'

, ,

.

, –

. –

( )

,

. ,

,( " )

,

.12011 1999

,

;(1 ) 9—6

, .2

.3.5% ,

.3 ,10%-

:

, , ;

4- – ;

, –

.

.

,

, 10- .

5- – ;5%

," – " ,(2013) . . 1

. , ,2013.07 . ,

Alvarez et. al. (2006), "Sticky prices in the Euro area: A summary of new micro-evidence", 2

.Journal of the European Economic Association 4(2-3) (ECB- ) ,In ation Persistence Network- . Klenow and Malin (2011), "Microeconomic Evidence on Price Setting", in Handbook

.of Monetary Economics, Vol. 3A, Friedman, B. M. and M. Woodford (eds.). North-Holland , "

. "

3

. , , " , ,( )

.

Page 90: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

80

2013 ,

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.0

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

,

0 5 10 15 20 25

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

13

57

911

1315

1719

2123

1:

1

. -

; -

5%

1

Page 91: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

81

:'

.2.5% –

,

.

,9/2005 ,03/2004) 4 : " 6

.(7/2009- 6/2002) (1/2010- 7/2006

. ( )- ( )

,(" ")

.

" , "

.

, 2

) " .30%- 15%

, (

" . "

" , 0.25-

. 0.12-

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2000

m1

2000

m5

2000

m9

2001

m1

2001

m5

2001

m9

2002

m1

2002

m5

2002

m9

2003

m1

2003

m5

2003

m9

2004

m1

2004

m5

2004

m9

2005

m1

2005

m5

2005

m9

2006

m1

2006

m5

2006

m9

2007

m1

2007

m5

2007

m9

2008

m1

2008

m5

2008

m9

2009

m1

2009

m5

2009

m9

2010

m1

2010

m5

2010

m9

2011

m1

2011

m5

2 : ) (1

1 , , ".

Page 92: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

82

2013 ,

1-' -'

( )

11- 3060

11--0.252.75024

12- 2.75051

12--0.252.5015

12- 2.5060

12- 2.5060

12- 2.5060

12- 2.5051

12--0.252.25015

12- 2.25060

12- 2.25060

12- 2.25060112--0.252024

12- 2060

13--0.251.75015

13- 1.75060

13- 1.75051

13- - 1.75060213--0.251.5006

13--0.251.25015

13- 1.25060313- 1.25050

13- 1.25050

13--0.251023

13- 1050

13- 1050. 1

" . , 2

. , ,2014 . 2014 2013 3

. . :

Page 93: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

83

'

• , 2013

,

.

• ,

. "

,

.

• ,3%- 2013- ( )

– –

.

• "

.

, ,

.

• ,

,

.

, 2013-

.

• , 2013

.

• , "

.

. , , ,

• 11.8 –

, . - " –

,

.

Page 94: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

84

2013 ,

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135)31.12.2012=100(

'-1 , 1 ,2013

Tel Aviv 100 Nikkei 225 Euro Stoxx 50 S&P 500

1 .: .

.1 . 2013

) ,

, , .('

, ,

.(' )

,

(tapering)

" ' -' ) "

, ,(

, .

,

,1 " , .

. , "

, " FED-

2013- , .(1-' ) 2013

,

. "

2013-

, . ,

. ,

.FED- ,Federal Reserve- 1

,2013 .

Page 95: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

85

:'

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

'-2 " -10 ,

1 ,2007 2013

1 MSCI. , , MSCI -2013 .

: .

. "

,2013- "

. 20- 10- "

,2013- , ,

.(2-' ) ,

.

2013- , CDS- :

,2009 36-

, .2012-

CDS- .

: ( ) 2013-

) 2014—2013-

. , - ( )- ,('

" , , "

.

,

.

Page 96: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

86

2013 ,

.2 . " 209- 2013-

. , ,

(1-' )

.

. 2007 ,

, " ( )

( ) ,

( )- , , "

: , "

. "

,2013-

) 20%- 2013- " .

, , .(

. ; "

10%- – ,

" , " –

.

.(3-' )

,

, ,

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-3

,2003 2013

) (

) (

54

)(

)(

3939

61

40

60

38

62

37

63

40

60

41

59

41

59

42

58

44

56

46

61

: .

,2013- " .

, .

Page 97: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

87

:'

1-'

2013

2003

,

1

"

2

"

"

4

5"

6

3"

"

20031,313.1

233.140.6

14.311.4

1.92.3

3.615.1

3.73.2

2.01.9

20041,420.9

240.137.9

14.210.2

2.42.7

4.516.8

3.73.6

2.71.4

20051,648.1

263.034.6

12.78.7

4.03.6

4.118.8

3.94.3

3.41.9

20061,831.7

272.332.5

11.07.5

5.03.9

4.621.5

3.94.1

3.82.2

20072,046.9

284.830.9

10.26.6

7.43.9

3.323.9

4.13.6

3.82.4

20081,877.8

245.637.2

13.911.2

6.92.9

3.511.7

3.93.1

3.02.7

20092,299.9

284.231.7

12.69.4

8.72.6

2.718.8

3.23.1

4.62.5

20102,556.1

295.130.1

12.08.7

9.32.2

2.721.4

2.33.2

5.52.5

20112,526.1

273.434.0

12.19.6

9.42.2

3.015.5

1.83.8

5.92.7

20122,722.6

274.133.6

13.19.4

9.41.9

2.615.0

1.13.9

6.73.1

20132,961.4

281.332.0

13.09.4

9.01.6

2.616.8

0.83.8

7.73.1

.

,

,

1

.

"

2

.

3

.Warran

t

4

."

,

"

5

."

72

2008

.

2008

6

.

:

Page 98: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

88

2013 ,

, . 2

.

,

; ,

,

.3

,35%- . 2013-

– 31%- ( ) . " 230-

, .2003

" . " ,4 "

" ,

. " –

( ) : 2013-

,

, , ,

. ,

, .

. " 50- 6%-

. " ( ) . " 26- , ,

: "

.

, ) .2013-

. " 89- ,50%- ( 20%-

, "

.

32- 2013

5.5%- ) 3%- – ( 8%- ) 5%- , "

. – 2011- (

.3 , ,

. .(2-' )

, – – ,

. , , 2

" , . . , 3

.2010 , ,8 ," -

, " " 4

, . " . " " , "

.30%- 2013-

,2013- " ,. "

. 2013- 5%-.

Page 99: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

89

:'

2-' )

" ,2013 ,(

36938879837

10538615506

265265

"26466

7150381538

744758

"74218292

"32156188

10112

10112

014598243

01264130

"197291

"02222

23427

23427

90154244

"90154244

4107797111900. :

.5

.

. .'

.

,

, , .

: .

2013 –

. 70%- , " 410

; ,(Modigliani, 1949) 5

, . , ,

.

Page 100: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

90

2013 ,

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

'-4 ,

1 _ -12 , ,

2009 2013

1 2013 -70% .

: .

.

,2011

,6

(4-' )

2013-

.(' -' )

,2011

, 2013

,

.2013

,

,

,7

.

, , 2013 ,2012

.(4-' )

, .

, , ,8

2008 :

120- ( ) 2013

; " 53- ( ) , "

.9 " 17-

, ,

. ,

; ,

,

.10 ,

.2012- 7.9%- 2008- 3.3%-

.' ,2011 6

. 2013- ' -' 7

. 8

, " 53 " 120 9

– " 36 – " 53 . , .

, : 10

.

2013 . .

, .

.

Page 101: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

91

:'

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

"

'-5 ) - ( :

,2000 2013 , 2013

) (

: .

; , , ,

, ,

2013- 15%- .11

.2012- ,

.

,2012 , " 137- 2013

) 12 " 134-

,( - ) .('

.

,(5-' )

– 2013- 100%- 2010—2009- 120%-

. .

.

,

.

.2011 3-' 11

, , . ,2010 12

. ,

,

.

Page 102: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

92

2013 ,

2013-

.2011 ,

, ,2010-

2008

, .

.

,

2013 , , .(' )

,

, , .

.

:

,

, .13

, , "

, .

:

,9%- 2013

, .

, ,

.

/ , .

,

,

.14

13

– , . "

: 14

Myers, S. and Majluf, N. (1984), "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions when Firms have Information the Investors do not have", NBER Working Paper Series, No. 1936.

,"Jensen, M. (1986), "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers

The American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 2, 323-329.

Jensen, M. and Meckling, W. (1976), "Theory of the firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs andOwnership Structure, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, 305-360.

2013 .

2013- , , .

Page 103: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

93

:'

.1

16 - 15

.

,

, .

– -

, . ,4.3%- 5.3%

- ,

. ,

-

63% , " 89.5-

.2013

.2013 51%- , " 72-

– -

.

.2

, :(3-' )

. " ,

( - )

2%- 2013

( " ) ;2012

,3.5%

;(8-' )

4.2%- ( " ) "

; ,

" ,

,2.3%- ,

)

, .(7-'

,31%-

.2013 2012 15

, . 16

, , : , , . ," " ,(2012) . . ,.

. ,2012.03

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013

"

'-6 " )

, (, -,

2010 2013

-

) (

: .

.

2013

, ;

.

Page 104: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

94

2013 ,

3-'

) ( ) 2013 2008 ,( , "

2008200920102011201220131 415390412408404388

" :433342

1571401351491531512 :121518263545

571530546557557540

126130129148150145

:93103104126131126

5454543 "417282778390

743735762786795779

520509536561572561

"166177185185185186

"574941403832

272265264259263259

" 220209204226220203

-250262294301312317 . " " , 1

. / 2

. 3

. :

,2012- 2011-

.(3-' )

) - " 2010

2013 , ,2012- .(6-'

.(3-' ) " , - "

"

- .

"

,(6-' )

" .

. "

. 2013

, 108 2009 .

" 13%- , " 38- ( )

,17 2013 .2013

. "

. 17

2013 " , - , " .

Page 105: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

95

:'

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-7 "

) ( " , 1 ,2007 2013

"

1 -2012 " """" , .

: .

"

. " ;

13- :BBB "

;(7-' ) . 6-

,

.

, " , "

.

, "

2013- .18( ) - "

, "

. "

, "

. "

,

. ,

,

. "

," " ,(2013) . , 18

.www.tase.co.il

2013 "

,

"

. "

"

, ,

. "

Page 106: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

96

2013 ,

.3

. " 6.2- " 2013

.2013—2008 ( " 3.5- ) 2012-

4 .2013 " 10- – (2007—1993) 2008

. 38 – 5%- – (IPO)

" ,

70%- .

" .(2013—2011)

, . 2013- ;

2013-

;

. -

" , " , "

.

,2013-

: ;19

.2019.6 2013 100 "

, ;

- . ,21 "

100 "

MSCI Emerging)

. ,(Markets

.4

.

, / -

, 19

" – – " " .

; , 20

, , (EV/EBIT) ,21.66 2013 - . . ,. , . ,2012.03 , (2012) " " , .

.

" 21

. ( ) . .

4 2013 38 , . .

" 70%- .

.

Page 107: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

97

:'

, .

. , ,

,22( )

,( ) "

, ,( )

20 ) ( 16 )

.( ) ,(301

.

,

(monitoring) (moral hazard)

,

. .

, ,

,

(systemic risk)

. , ,

,

.

, ,

1-' )

. .(2012

, , :

. , , 36-

,

,

.

.

,

.2013 ,23

,

– .2010

. " –

,

, .25 " , 100 "

, ,

,

. "

.2012 ' 22

.2012 1-' 23

;

.

2013

.

Page 108: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

98

2013 ,

, ,

.

. 2013-

:

; ;

;

.

– .

, –

, .

( ) :

,

.

, .2008 1983

, ' , ,

( ) . ,

2013 ;

, . " 3.5-

,

.

" ,

, " 1.6- 1 – 2013-

2013- " .2012- –

" .2012- , " 0.7-

,2008 24

" 25 , . " "

,2008

" .2008 , ,

, – 2013

: 2012- 2011 –

.(' ,2012 ) 35%-

bid/- ) 24

.(ask. 25

" 2013- .

Page 109: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

99

:'

.

.1

) – 2% – 2013

( ) ,(

,42%- .79.5% ,

(28%) – 73%- –

.(44%)

2012 ; ,

,2015 9%-

16%- 2009 , .2017 10%-

, .

,9%- 2013

;

.

388 3.7%- 2013- 26

, 8-' . "

2013- .

2013- . ,

.1%- ,

,

.2009 2013

,

. 2013 , .

,

.

.

,27 2013

. 2012- 3%-

2011-

,

, " , , .

.

.28

, . 6%- 2012—2010 :

( ) ,( ) 26

.

.2013 , , : 27

80%- ,OECD- 28

.(Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs 2014: An OECD Scoreboard, January 2014)

. 2013-

.

,

,

.

Page 110: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

100

2013 ,

2012

. ,

, " 2- 2013

. 1%-

.2

. 2008- , 2013

, " 2013-

.

"

, ,

.

,29

2013- , .

, " "

– . -

.2013- –

, "

.

, 20% 29

.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

12/0

6

03/0

7

06/0

7

09/0

7

12/0

7

03/0

8

06/0

8

09/0

8

12/0

8

03/0

9

06/0

9

09/0

9

12/0

9

03/1

0

06/1

0

09/1

0

12/1

0

03/1

1

06/1

1

09/1

1

12/1

1

03/1

2

06/1

2

09/1

2

12/1

2

03/1

3

06/1

3

09/1

3

'-81 , -

, ,2007 2013

) (

) (

1 , .

.

: .

2013 , 2008- . , " , .

Page 111: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

101

:'

1%

17%

22%

10%4%

6%

13%

2%

15%

6%4%

'-9 ,

30/09/2013

" :

" :"

,

: .

.

10.5%- , " 1.2 2013

. " 44%- .2012

– 2009 – 5%- 2013- "

, " "

, ,

5%- .

. ,

,

. ,

. ,

,

. ,

:

- ,

,

.

2013

.( )

,

.

,

, .

. "

,

.

.

Page 112: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

102

2013 ,

4-' , , "

2013 2010

( , )

2013

2010201120122013IIIIIIIV

.118,1717,1392,32112,2124,9175,595-4442,145

5,51010,7669,48111,8033,5114,7821,9851,525

" 8,985-5,658-3,5131,6271,739384-1,5121,017

3,6772,031-3,648-1,219-334429-917-397

" .217,7788,8168,59419,2715,3665,1168807,909

" 8,6565,3292,3524,9334171,1052,2741,137

" 9,3693,1208,77811,0054,0431,5842,9672,411

" -217354-2,2403,7771,0602,549-4,2604,428

-3012-296-444-153-123-101-67

(1-2) .3393-1,677-6,273-7,059-450479-1,324-5,764

.411,9124,534-1804,3571,7541,1303781,095

(3-4) .5-11,520-6,211-6,094-11,416-2,204-651-1,702-6,859

. :

, ,

.( , : )

.5 , 2013

2013 .(' )

, . "

, - "

" ,

. ,

.(4-' ) "

. 2013- , , "

" 2013-

11 2013 ;

5 . " 6.5- , "

4.4- . , "

, " , "

" " 2013-

,2013 .

" 2013- .

Page 113: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

103

:'

.(' )

,2013 "

"

) 30 . "

, " .('

.

3- 2013- "

. 20.8% ,

2006 ,2003

" .

.

; – – , "

, " ( )

, . " ( ) , "

, " 2012- 2011

,2010- 2009- , "

, , . "

. "

, , 2013

, 11.8- :

( - ) 2012 .2006

OECD- , " 3.9%

; 2013 .1.2%

– 41%- ( 6.2) 59%-

. 64% . 2013

, 2.4-

" 2013- . -

2011 , "

)

.(2012

, .

, ,

.

) " 59% 30

.(

2013- "

,

.

2013- .

Page 114: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 115: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

105

'

:

.

,

.

.

,

.

.

,

.

.

Page 116: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

106

2013 ,

,

.

, , .1

.2

, 3

.

,

.

, ,

. ,

. :

,

,

, .4

.5

;

.

- –

65%- ) .

. 6(2012 24%- 1992

:

, ,2008—2004

.

)

– ," " ,

. ' 1

(structural unemployment) 2

, .

(frictional unemployment) 3

, . .

.

, 4

, .Beveridge .

. ,flexicurity- 5

. , , , -

. ;

' ,136 ' 6

.53—45

.

Page 117: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

107

: :'

,( 7

.( )

.9,8

,

.

.

,

) 2008–1995 .10

OECD- ;0.86 (

.110.91- 0.38 – – 0.66 –

,

.

,

.(1 ) .

. ,

,

. (2 ) .

, ,

,( , , )

;

(3 ) .

, , .

)

.(2012 '

,

." " " " 7

, , Beveridge 8

: " , ' ' , ) 2011—2004- . , ,Discussion Paper No. 2013.05 ,( ) "

. 9

, Beveridge , .(Hartz reforms) 2005—2003 ,( , , ) ( ) Krebs, T. and M. Scheffel (2013), "Macroeco- : )

.(nomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany", IMF Working Paper WP/13/42 , , " . , ,

.

; 10

.

,132 ' ," " : 11

.33–26 ' , ,2011

Page 118: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

108

2013 ,

.

. –

.1?

-

.

, , :

. ,

,

.

,( , )

,

12 , " : ,

. .

, ,

. ,

.13 ,1-'

,

.

. Bhagwati (1998)- Bhagwati and Dehejia (1994)

, , , ,

, .

,

. 12

. 13

.

1-' 2012 1996 , 1

(1993 )

:

(241-240 ) 0.747

(245 ) 0.912

(34-31 ) 0.333

:

(16-14 ) , 0.029

(19-17 ) , 0.094

. 1

. :

Page 119: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

109

: :'

, , .14

" " . ,

("kaleidoscopic comparative advantage")

.

.

, 40%- :16,15

, .

. ,

, :2009—2008 .

. ,

,

,

. ,

, :

, ,

. ,

,

.172011—1996

,

,

.(1-' )

;

.(1-' )

. ,

," " ," " ," " –

. - – ' " " ," ' "

- , 11-

.(Barba Navaretti et al., 2003)

,

.

,2013 ," " , 14

. ,

, (2) , (1) 15

; , (4)- , (3).

, , - 16

, , .

.Hodrick-Prescott filter- , , 17

,

.

Page 120: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

110

2013 ,

,

, .19 18

, .(' 2-' )

:2009—2008 ,

.(' 2-' )

( ) ,

.

,

. ,

, ,

. , 18

, / 19

. .2011—1996 .

.64—25

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

.

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

.

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

.

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

.

'-1 1

1 , . : .

, .

Page 121: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

111

: :'

.20 ,

;

2.6- ,

.

(fixed effects) ,

.

,

14—0 , , , , ,

.21 , , ,

, ,

,

. ,

, ,

50%- 70%-

, .

. 50%-

, , 20

, 4.2% 2013- 16 . .7.4% 12—11

,2009- 2008 , 21

.

91.0

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

.

- -

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

.

- -

'-2 / ,

, 64-25 ,1996 2011 )(

: .

Page 122: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

112

2013 ,

:

Bhagwati, J. (1998), "Trade and Wages: a Malign Relationship?" in S. Collins (ed.), Imports, Exports, and the American Worker, Washington, DC: BrookingsInstitution Press.

Bhagwati, J. and V. Dehejia (1994), "Free Trade and Wages of the Unskilled – isMarx Striking Again?" in Bhagwati, J. and M. Kosters (eds.), Trade and Wages:Leveling Wages Down?, Washington, DC: AEI Press.

Barba Navaretti, G., D. Checchi and A. Turrini (2003), "Adjusting Labor Demand:Multinational versus National Firms", Journal of the European EconomicAssociation, 1 (2-3): 708-719.

.2

, ,2009—2008

22(vacancy yield)

, .( " " – ,duration of vacancy)

.

. ,

– , ,

. 23

, -

,

.

,(matching function) ,Beveridge

.

)

.( ,

Beveridge ,

. -

, 2011- 2004 Beveridge

- .(3-' )

,

.

,( )

. –

22

. Ht ⁄ Vt-1 ,

. 26- 23

, .

Page 123: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

113

: :'

.

.

– 24

2004

,2008

252013 2010

) –

.(2009 2008

4-' .(2-' ) 13.3%-

-

– –

.26

27 ,

8.1%-

.

)

.(

.19.2%-

)

,

(

.

,

. 24

. 25

.1- , 26

, , ,( ) . .(time-aggregation bias) ,

.(instantaneous hiring) ,

vacancies ,flow = vacanciest - 0.9vacanciest-1 + 0.9hirest - ,flow , 27

. 10%- . hires-

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0

'-3 Beveridge ,2004 2013

2004/I

2013/IV

- 2013-2012, .

: , .

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

'-4

, 1999 2013 ) (

, , -

) (

) (

: .

Page 124: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

114

2013 ,

.28

. (survival function)

.

, , ,(fixed effects)

– - .

.

. ,

– 5-'

.

,

,

,

. 5-

.

,2013—2012

– (censored duration) 28

.(completed duration)

2-' 1 ,

2008/III-2004/III2009/IV-2008/IV

2013/III-2010/I

0.841.010.9613.3%

,

3.192.242.93-8.1%

,

4.093.103.30-19.2%

: ; 1

. , . :

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 21

'-5

,

,2010 ) ( 2013 ) (

,2004 ) ( 2008 ) (

: .

,

Page 125: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

115

: :'

;

– . (baseline hazards)

,29 –

.

,5.6%- , , ,

, ,

. 3-' .

,1-

.

, ,

, .

,

, .' ,

.

, , ,

.

,

.

.

( ) 0.3% 29

. –

3-' ,baseline hazards ratio

(2011 ) hazards ratio

- **1.26

0.92

**1.13

1.04

, **1.15

0.83

**1.23

**1.25

"0.89

, , 0.91

, , 1.02

, **1.056

.5% **. :

Page 126: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

116

2013 ,

, ,

, . , ,

," "

. ,

. ,

:

,

,

.30

,10—1

.10 8

,

, .

hazards ratio

.baseline

(10 8)

.6

.

;

31

.(6-' )

.

,

,

: 30

www.economy.gov.il/NR/exeres/84E57160-2E37-4B20-A13F-668EC51831CB

. , , , 10 , 31

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

'-6

, , 1999 2013 ) (

: .

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

'-7 -26 :

, 64-25 ,1996 2011

: .

Page 127: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

117

: :'

,(8-' 7-' )

: . Beveridge

,

2009- )

.33,32 Beveridge – (

. ,

,

.

.2011—1996

,

.34

9-' . ,

.

.Hobijn, B. and A. Sahin (2013)- Kroft, K. et. al. (2013) 32

Beveridge 33

. – , – . . " ,

.(Bonthuis et. al., 2012;Hobijn, B. and A. Sahin, 2013)

A(d)- d ,A(d) = exp(a0 + a1ln(d)) 34

, .d , .(negative time dependence)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

'-8 1 , 64-25 ,

1996 2011

-26 15 26 -15

,

1 . : .

Page 128: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

118

2013 ,

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

,

,

.(6-' )

.(RMSE)

,

.Beveridge

Bonthuis, B., V. Jarvis and J. Vanhala (2012), "What's Going on Behind the Euro

Area Beveridge Curve(s)?", European Central Bank Worker Paper Series No. 1586.

Hobijn, B. and A. Sahin (2013), "Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the

Great Recession", Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco working paper.

Kroft, K., F. Lange, M.J. Notowidigdo and L.F Katz (2013), "Long-Term

Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration

Dependence, and non-Employment", working paper.

? .3

.

,( )

.

, , , :

, . ,

) . ,

- " ,'

(."

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

37.0

39.0

41.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-9

, ,1996 2011

) (

: .

. .

Page 129: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

119

: :'

– 35 "

– 2020 2005

, , : .

,( , ) - ,

.

.35 " ,

, "

( " ) ,

- , , ,

. ,

,(3161 ' ) 2018

.

.

,

. "

. ,

, ," . . "

." " ,

, ," "

. ,

,

, ,

. ,

:

, ,

. ,

. ( - )

,

.

; ,

.

/

.

, , , : 5 .

.35 ; ,

, 44

, ) .36Herfindahl ,

. ,(1- ,

35

. .

. i xi ,H=∑i xi 2 : 36

Page 130: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

120

2013 ,

,2011- 1996 ,

)

.(10-'

,

,

.

– 15

, ,

.

,

,

,

.

,

,4-' .

. , , , ,

, .

, , ,

.

,( )

. ,

,

. , ,

" "

.(economic geography)

" -

.(manufacturing belt) " " ,

. " "

:

, . ,

. ,

,

, .

(circular causation, Myrdal (1957)) " " .

:(positive feedback, Arthur (1990)) " "

. ,

.(Krugman, 1993) ,

0.035

0.036

0.037

0.038

0.039

0.040

0.041

'-10 Herfindahl ,

,2011 1996

2011 1996

: .

Page 131: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

121

: :'

, .

.

, .

, ,

, . – ,

(informational spillovers) , .

.

, .

, . ,

,

. ,

, " .

. ,

,

)

4-' 2011 , ,

( )

7.37.738.442.24.4

, 10.114.131.939.34.6

4.933.630.219.411.9

1.332.238.19.618.7

5.726.938.223.95.3

13.226.319.324.616.5

16.329.127.119.77.8

9.915.115.353.56.2

10.99.618.158.82.7

11.423.228.729.47.4

10.818.814.252.24.0

8.215.915.954.35.8

8.416.029.237.98.5

12.714.021.942.88.6

7.115.232.838.86.1

"11.026.324.925.112.7

. :

Page 132: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

122

2013 ,

.(

.

,

.

, – –

.

.

- .

. , ,

, , ,

.

, .

(networking) ,

.

.35 " , ,

Arthur, W.B. (1990), "Positive Feedbacks in the Economy". Scientific American,262: 92-99.Krugman, P. (1993), "On the Number and Location of Cities". European EconomicReview, 37: 293-298. Myrdal, G. (1957), Economic Theory and Under-Developed Regions. London:Duckworth.

– – , .

Page 133: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

123

'

• 3.2%- 2013

. 1%- 2013 .

.2013

, , .

. 5%- 2013

,2014- 2013-

,

. 3%-

• , 2013-

. ,

• " - .97.8% 2013-

. ,"

• –

" " –

. • -

.

• 2004

.

. ,2003-1992

• ,

, - .

, .

. ,

Page 134: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

124

2013 ,

- .1

, 0.7%- 2013

4.65% , .(1-' )

,2013 2012- .2014-2013 ,1

,

2014- ,2013- ,

, , .2014-2013-

.2012

.2% – 3.9% 2012-

, ,2012

1.5%- 2013- ,2013 ,

,2013 ( ) 2012- .3%-

,2012- . 2013

. 2013

, , ,

.

.

.

– ,( " 12- ) 2014

,2014- 2013-

18 )

4.65%- 2013 .( "

. 2013- " 6.5

3%-

. ,2014

,

.

,2013 . -

,2014-

, 2015 .2014-

.

, .

.

" 10- 2015- .

.2013- 4.65% , " 45.6 2013- 1

. 4.33% ,2013 , "

0.7%- 2013 , . .

, . .

, .

Page 135: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

125

:'

1-' 2013 2007 ,

( " )

2007 2000200820092010201120122013

42.338.638.635.736.735.436.2

1.31.00.80.70.70.70.7

34.431.929.730.530.729.530.3

12.111.511.411.811.711.211.8

3.93.93.73.93.93.63.4

13.011.29.59.69.89.610.1

5.55.35.15.25.35.15.1

3.02.22.01.71.91.81.713.63.56.12.83.43.43.5

45.340.741.040.139.439.239.4

41.837.237.537.036.336.135.9

17.616.917.017.117.217.117.2

5.85.25.14.94.84.54.5

1.71.21.01.01.01.11.0

0.80.70.80.70.70.70.8

10.99.710.19.99.99.99.7

5.03.43.53.32.82.82.72 1.51.92.01.71.51.61.8

2.01.61.51.51.61.51.6

32.830.831.430.930.830.831.1

3.02.15.33.62.73.93.23 - 3.33.66.74.63.84.84.0

2.51.74.63.42.63.62.84 1.63.24.73.93.84.93.7

5 - 2.64.25.54.84.95.94.67,6( ) 76.565.367.064.964.163.062.6

6( ) 86.872.975.371.569.768.267.4

" , , , 1

. " ". " 2

.( - ) - 3

. " - . ,2% 4

,( - ) - 5

.2% . 6

. 7

. :

Page 136: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

126

2013 ,

-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

)(

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

35.3

30.4

34.7

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

4

-OECD

32.431.0

39.7

44.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

3

'-1 -OECD2 , ,2000 2013

1 - .2 -OECD .3 -OECD -2012 -2013.4 -OECD -2013.

: OECD, ,OECD Revenue Statistics 2013.

35.3

1.5

-0.5

4.0

86.6

4.6

0.1

4.6

2.8

81.2

1.7

62.4

45.2

42.2

67.4

45.6

40.3

Page 137: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

127

:'

, ,

. ,

.2 – –

.

, .

. ,

.

: -

;

;

; ;

, .

, .

,

.3

-

7%- 2012- 2013 "

.46%–4%- – ,

.5

,(1-' ) 6OECD , ,

.

, . OECD-

, - ,

. OECD

.

,7 4.3% 2011- OECD ,(1-' )

, 8 . -

. 2-' 2

Alessina, Alberto et. al. "The political economy of fiscal adjustments." Brookings Papers on Economic 3

Activity (1998):197-266

. 2-' 4

, , " SNA 2008 OECD 5

.

. 6

. ' , OECD

. OECD ,2011 7

: - 8

. ( ) . , -

.

. -

" 2013-

. ,

. OECD

. OECD

Page 138: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

128

2013 ,

.2011- 2.2% – OECD-

. -

.OECD-

,2011- 1995- ,OECD- 2-'

.

) OECD- ,OECD

.9OECD- 2/3- ,(2-'

.OECD-

, –

.10 ,

. OECD

OECD-

.11( 0.1%) ,

.OECD Education at a Glance 9

, - – 10

.2013 2012 ,

. 37 11

2-' OECD-

12011- 1995-

( )

:

2(15-0)

:

2(65+)

2

( )( )

19951995

OECD- 5.95.72.011.717.81.351.629.121.750.7

5.47.48.512.810.61.750.348.515.664.2

3OECD-13/192/19 1/198/19 19/193/1912/191/1918/191/19

20112011

OECD- 6.95.71.412.618.20.748.825.524.850.2

5.27.06.212.110.90.442.145.516.361.8

3OECD-17/192/19 1/1912/1919/1917/1917/191/1918/191/19

OECD- 1.00.0-0.50.90.4-0.6-2.8-3.73.2-0.5

-0.2-0.4-2.3-0.70.3-1.3-8.2-3.00.7-2.4

.OECD- 1

.(64-15) ( / ) 2

, , , , , , , , , , , , ' , , ) OECD- 19 3

.2011- 1995 ( , , , ,.OECD- :

,OECD .

Page 139: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

129

:'

.2 .(1-' ) 3.2% 0.7%- 12

3.1%- 2013- ( ) .

. 3.9% ,

" 5.7- ,(3-' ) 13 4.3% ,2013

.(4-' ) 6.7-

" . , 2013-

0.7%- 2013 , ( )

1% .14( " 7)

.2013 0.3%- 2009–2004

.

, " , , 12

,2001 ,3-' (.9-' -' ) . .

.2013- 4.65% , " 45.6 2013- 13

. 4.33% ,2013 , "

, 14

.2013 ,

3-' 2013 2007 , ,

( " )

2007200820092010201120122013

2.91.66.05.53.02.04.31 ( ) 0.11.94.93.53.13.93.1

( ) -1.30.53.52.42.02.92.21 31.128.425.325.825.824.825.6

26.724.222.122.723.022.123.0

, , , 0.90.90.70.60.40.40.5

2.02.01.61.41.51.41.3

" 1.41.31.01.20.90.90.81 31.130.430.229.328.928.728.7

, :

5.75.25.14.94.84.74.62( ) 7.77.57.17.06.56.26.2

17.817.718.017.317.617.818.0

. 1

. 2

" ,1-' 3

. ,

. 2013 31 , , – :

2013-

.2013

.2013- 0.3%-

Page 140: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

130

2013 ,

,

.

2013

, 1%- (1-' ) 16 .15

. / 15

" " 16

, .2%- , . . , " " . . , .2% , " ;

. , , .

4-' 2013

( )

2012-

2013

( , , " )

(-) -39.0-45.7-33.212.4

: -33.5-43.8-27.916.0

" : -5.5-1.8-5.4-3.6

246.6263.4269.15.7

: 236.7252.9258.45.51 217.6236.0241.65.7

14.014.614.2-0.42 4.14.14.90.8

8.98.78.4-0.31285.6309.0302.3-6.7

3 : 270.2296.7289.8-6.93 " : 15.412.312.60.3

4 62.062.165.02.9

, 46.949.348.0-1.4

172.4190.6187.9-2.7

4.47.51.9-5.5

. 1

. , , 2

. . " " 3.5 : 2013- 3

. 4

. 2013 , :

Page 141: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

131

:'

,17 .2011

. ,

" " " – -

. – -

- , 5.0%–3.5% ,

, ,

18 .

.

.19

,

.

. , ,

,

, ,

20(2014) , , .

10-

. 10–6-

.3

2012- ,6.4%-

0.2%- ) .(5-' )

, .2009 ,(

, .

, , .

. , ,

.( ) 2012 1/12 ,

, 17

, ,"2012—2000 " , ' : ) .(.2014 ,2014.01 ,

, 1.8% ,1973 18

. , . 0.3%- 2013 , . .1997 ;1% , ' .

.

Peter Heller, Understanding Fiscal Space, IMF, 2005 . 19

(sustainability) " Ghosh, , Jun I. Kim, and Mahvash S. Qureshi. Fiscal space. International Monetary Fund,." " Research Department, 2010

." ( )

" 20

. , ," –

2013-

.

2013- ,

.

Page 142: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

132

2013 ,

,2013- " 46.5 , " 59 2012-

9.0- 2013

. 1/12 ,2012- , "

. , ,

, - 2013

.212008 , 2%- ,2014-2013

2013 .22

, " 52.0- 51.0 ,52.5 2015–2013 , - 21

7.7% ,2015- 5.5%- 2013- 6.2%- . .(3-' ) 2007-

.2011 ,' ,8-' 22

5-' 2013 2007 ,

2007200820092010201120122013

3.14.16.64.94.67.06.4

: 3.2-16.77.62.1-9.26.43.3

3.16.66.55.25.97.16.6

: 2.45.96.55.96.16.95.7

3.26.68.16.26.77.26.1

3.06.14.66.85.76.95.6

4.67.45.86.65.76.36.0

5.07.56.37.57.07.35.9

( ) 3.25.64.45.55.15.43.9

3.56.84.28.37.47.76.7

7.58.59.67.26.76.85.1

3.86.73.13.43.22.65.2

2.72.54.83.33.43.94.1

2.65.510.75.16.76.94.4

( ) 0.83.68.83.24.85.02.4

9.710.6-0.24.313.52.714.4

: 16.716.70.25.1-0.316.069.4

11.916.811.9-7.5-4.516.018.1

( ) 0.54.63.32.73.51.71.5

0.01.64.30.11.14.22.5

-0.23.21.53.43.13.52.3

" 6.86.45.87.06.77.56.0

. :

2013 - 1/12 .2012 .

Page 143: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

133

:'

- .23 5%- ,

2014- 7%- 2013- 2014- ,

, .

. - ,2014

- -

.

-

. , ,

,

, , .

. -

.

2013- .

. ,

,2007

.2016 ,

)

(

. 2-'

2000 70%-

.242031- 80%-

, 2-' ,

.25

.

,97.8% 2013-

.2012–2006 99%

" 6.7-

(4-' )

59.5 , " 61.3 2013 23

" 3.27 . " 1.8 ,( ) 0.3- 2.79 , . , 2.5 , – 5.900 + 64.967 . ,

. " 61.312 = 7.055 – 2.500

. 31% 2013 32.4% 2000 24

, , : 25

.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

'-2

,2000 2013)(

: .

2013 -

. 2013

2014 .

-

.

OECD , .

.

70%- 2000

.2013- 80%-

.

Page 144: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

134

2013 ,

.2013 –

,98.6% " " .

.

1.9 , " 7.5- ," " -

, - . "

, - .

7.5- 2011- " 5.7- ,2011- 60%- 2012- 37%

.2013-

.4 ( )

. 9.6% , " 320.8- 2013

11% , " 241.6- ,

.(4-' ) 26 " 5.7-

.4.8%- -

.

27 " 11.7 2013-

, : " 4.6- .

, " 42,000- " 14,000 1%-

. 3-' 26

, , , , 27

.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

'-2 ,

2000 2013

*

* , , .: .

2013 .97.8% -." "

11%- .

2013- , . " 11.7

Page 145: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

135

:'

2% 28

7.0 .(2012- ) " 811,560

,18%- " : "

. , , ,(1-' )

– - 2013-

." " "

. , " 3 -

" , . -

. , -

" - "

) " (" " ) FDI-

.( ' ) .(WAZE

. " - "

" "

, .

. ,

" 2012- . " "

."

(6%- , 70%–40%)

, .

" 4.4 ,2013

" 3 ( 122 " 60)

; , .2013

.

.2014 2013

, 2014-

.

.2016 ,

, 2013 ,

. . ,2014-

, , " ) 2013–1999

.(

.(3-' ) , ,

,

,

,4-' , .

.

, " 168,001- " 173,160- 28

. " 240,001- " 261,361-

2013-

. -

. "

.

" "

4.4- 2013- 1.4 , "

" .

. -

2013- ,

.

.

.

Page 146: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

136

2013 ,

, . ,

,(2013 ) " 5,000- " 2,500- ,

.

. , " 5,000-

2013-1999 5-'

. ( )

" 3,700 ,2011- .

" 5,300 ,2.4%- ( 20%)

" 50,000 16,000 , 10%- ( 63%)

. 20%–15%- ( 12%)

, " 3,700

.

(. ' - ).29

/ ,+55 18 , , 29

.

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

'-3 ,1999 2016

"

)( )(

: .

. ,2.4%- " 50,000 16,000–15%- . 20%

Page 147: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

137

:'

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 42,500 70,000

'-4 2013

2013-1999

1999 2000 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011 2012 2013 ) (

) (

: .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

02,

000

4,00

06,

000

8,00

010

,000

12,0

0014

,000

16,0

0018

,000

20,0

0022

,000

24,0

0026

,000

28,0

0030

,000

32,0

0034

,000

36,0

0038

,000

40,0

0042

,000

44,0

0046

,000

48,0

0050

,000

52,0

0054

,000

56,0

0058

,000

60,0

0062

,000

64,0

0066

,000

68,0

0070

,000

0102030405060708090100110120

'-5 1999 -2013 ,

, 1

-2011 ) 2013( 1999 -2013

1999 -2013 ,

"

1 2013 , , .

-2011 ) 2013 ,(

5%

, 50%

-11% )

(

Page 148: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

138

2013 ,

.5

.

. 2013

– ,

.

.30 50

.

.2004

, ,

, .31 –

. , - ,2004

. – -

– .

;

, – .

: .

- , , ,

- .

. ,

.

2013 ,2014-2013 ,

.2014

, .

. /

.

. ,

,

, , .32 ,

fiscal volatility) -

- .330.15%- (shock

.2.57 =50/67.5+ (2013– 2011 ) 1.83 : 2015 , 30

. 2014- 2013

Kopits, George, and Steven A. Symansky. Fiscal policy rules. Vol. 162. International monetary fund, 31

1998. J. Alm (1988). Uncertain Tax Policies, Individual Behavior, and Welfare. American Economic 32

Review, 78(1), 237-245. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde et al. Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity. No. w17317. 33

National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011.

2013 . .

.2004 -

, , .

Page 149: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

139

:'

, , - .

.

,

, ,

; ,

;

,3 ; ,

; 1984

; 17 ,

, ,

, . , ,

. , ,

.

. 2013

2015 ,

, .( 6-' ) "

.2015- 2017- 2016

2017–2015

36.5

37.0

37.5

38.0

38.5

39.0

39.5

40.0

40.5

41.0

41.5

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

'-6

, 2013 2020

-

-

: .

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

'-6

, ,2013 2020

-

-

: .

2015

, " 10-

.2017—2016

Page 150: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

140

2013 ,

,34 ,

.( 6-' )

,

" 18- 2013 .

.

.6 .67.4% , 0.8- 2013 ( )

,2012–2010

, . ( )

, .(6-' ) 2013 - ,

,2003

,2012 0.4%- ( ) .(5-' )

,

. , 0.7%-

: 34

.2013 , ,

6-' 2013 2009 ,

( )

20092010201120122013

72.975.371.569.768.2

( ) -4.0-5.0-4.5-4.9-3.8

5.21.31.33.73.3

( ) :4.93.53.13.93.21 " -0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.4

-0.3-0.5-0.8-0.1-0.12 1.4-1.0-0.40.30.7

3 1.40.90.70.50.5

" 0.0-0.60.7-0.2-0.6

-0.5-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.340.2-0.30.1-0.30.1

75.371.569.768.267.4

. 1

. 2

. 3

. 4

. :

( ) , 0.7- 2013.67.4%

Page 151: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

141

:'

,

,

, -

,

.

( ) ,OECD

– 2013- 3.7%- –

.35(1.9%)

,

, "

.

, " 38.8- 2013-

.2012-

10.5- 2013

.(7-' ) 2011–2004 , "

-

, 30%-

.

. ,2012-

, ,

.

, , , ,36

.37

." - " 35

15- ,1995 ," " 36

.2.2% , ,2013- , 15- .4.8%

, ,2013 37

- . 5%- , " 1.3- 15- - 2013- 2012 .

, . .

-10,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

"

'-7 –

,

,

. -

,2013

.

Page 152: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

142

2013 ,

" " :1-'

, ,

, .1

.

, ,

.( ) ,

. ,

, ,

.

,

- 2009 :

, )

,

" " (

.2

,

,

.3 15

,90% 75%—72%-

.4

– –

.83%- 30%

" "

,

.5

. , , 1

.

," , , , ,' ' - " 2

2001- .2008 .

. , 3

– 2012- 1/10- – 130- 4

http://taxes.gov.il/About/ : . , 2/3- . Reforms/Documents/MisuiYarok2009/polutionMisuiyarok010813.xls

. ,"2008- " , " 5

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

15-12 11-7 6-2

1 " "

) ( , ,

2008 2012

: , .

Page 153: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

143

:'

,

– (2 ) –

." "

) 62000

: ,(2

2008- 2000 -

;

2008- -

,

.

" "

,

,

.

2008-

. ,

, 2012- 2000

.72008

, , 2013

, , .8

. ,

." "

, " "

.

.

, ,

. 2008 ,(1 ) 6

.2012 74% –

. , 7

, , , .

. , -

," , " , . . ,. , 8

. , : . ,2012 ,2013 , ," : " ,.

.

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

1,710

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

8090

100110120130140150160

2 95 ,

,2000=100 ) ( ; ," ) (,

2000—2013

: .

"

Page 154: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

144

2013 ,

7.2%)

.(2012

.9 ,

)

(3

,2009

, .

4- ,8

,2013

" " , )

.6- (

.

" "

,

, ,

;

)

. (" "

2013 , .

, ,

, .10

,

.11

" 9

/http://ozar.mof.gov.il/hachnasot :/http://goingreen.org.il/home 10

.OECD Economic Surveys, Israel. December 2013, pp. 49-52 : 11

: ( ) , , .

.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

6-2 11-7 15-12

3 3.5

) ( ,

: , .

-

2013

Page 155: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

145

:'

:2-' 1 -

2000 .

12- 2012- : 40%-

.(1 ) . ,263

– ,

, , .(2 )

. ,

,2( " )

) " 15- 2010—2008

2102 ; 2%- – (2012

. " – " 6.1-

, -

.

, ( )

( ) ;3 "

) " " ,

, ( ) ;4( "

( ) ;

, ( ) ;

.

(" ")

,

.5

.2009—2005 ,6 -

," - " ,( ) ' ,' ,' , 1

. , ,

. , :2012 " ,(2012) 2

. , - " 3

, , . , .( )

. - 570- 4

.1996/7 5

, . , 6

.( ) ' ,' -'

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1

" ,2000 2012

" ) (

" ) (

: .

Page 156: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

146

2013 ,

. , , ,

(panel) –

. –

1% ) 0.92 ,

.7 – ( 0.92%

;15%-

.821%- ;32%-

.

.

" .14%-

, ,

.

(" ") –

Elvik, R., Hoye, A., Vaa, T. and Sorensen, M. (2009) The Handbook of Road Safety, Emerald Group 7

Publishing Limited, Second Edition, UK.. ,

. , , 8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 " , -OECD,

2011 -2000

2000 2011

49.5 36.7 26.7

* 2010 , 2011.:OECD (2013), Road Safety Annual Report 2013, International Road Traffic and Accident,

Database (IRTAD) .

Page 157: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

147

:'

:3-' .

. , ,

: 2012–1992

,

. , ;

4.8%- . 1 1

) . 1.2% – ( )

: (

– 2003 .1.8%-

. ( 0.2%- ) ,2003 – 1%-

. ( )

. ( ) 1

2009- 2003 ,2002 . , .

. ( )

.

/ ( )

, ,

. , .

, , ) -

. .9(fixed effect

. .10 ,

- ,

. – –

,

.

. , ,

,

.

. 9

,(" " ) .

, , . ,(2000) ' , 10

.

Page 158: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

148

2013 ,

,2012–1992

2

.

- :

. – 3

. ( )

- , "

, .

" . ,

. ( ) -

, "

.

( ) " - " ,4

.

, 2

, , . , . ( )

, WEO- 3

WEO- . , .

, ) , 4

.( ,

5.7

5.9

5.4

3.7

5.8

4.4 5.

9

-0.9

-7.9

3.6

9.4

3.3

10.0

2.4

-0.9

-0.4

-6.1

-6.1

3.4

13.7

-3.0

-7.5

0.3

6.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

1519

92

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2002

Q3

2003

2003

Q3

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2009

Q3

2010

2011

2012

) (

) (

1 : , ,1992 2012

: ," .

Page 159: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

149

:'

. 2004

.

) 2003–1992 ,

2012–2004 ,( 5.7%-

,2004- , . .5

, ,

, .

,

.

,

, ,

, .

, , . " " ,

,

1% .

. , ,( 0.43- )

, ,

.( )

,

, .

.

,

6 .

.

, ,

. 2.1% ,

,

.

, 5

, .( )

Pina, Alvaro and Venes, Nuno (2011), "The political economy of EDP scal forecasts: : 6

An empirical assessment", European Journal of Political Economy 27 (2011), 534-546

Page 160: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

150

2013 ,

:4-' ?

.

, . , , -

) . -

(

.1 ,

, .

.

– , , , " – OECD .2OECD

.

– .

– ,

.

, , .3 ,

, .

/ ,4

.

, .

. , ,

– –

. ,

,

.(101 )

: .

;

;

;

– .

, 1

, , . " 640,000- .126

Tax Administration in OECD and Selected: OECD - 2

Non-OECD Countries: Comparative Information Series, OECD, 2011, Using Third Party Information Reports to Assist Taxpayers Meet their Return Filing Obligations – Country Experiences with the Use of Pre-populated Tax Returns, Forum on Tax Administration Taxpayer Services Sub-group, OECD, 2006, Tax Administration in OECD

Countries: Comparative Information Series, OECD, 2004. , – 3

. 4

Page 161: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

151

:'

;

.

,

, , .

.5 14-

,

, .

,(pre-filled tax return)

.

, , )

.(

. ,

OECD 13-

.(1 )

, , , )

(

, , ) .

.6 , (.

,

(. , , ) .

( , , , " ) OECD

.

: . ,

,

, .

, .(126 )

.7

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/toder.pdf 5

. . 6

, . 7

.

168

5

5

18

1OECD :

Page 162: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

152

2013 ,

( , , )

. "

- ; -

,

.( " )

;

. ,

,

. - –

,

," " .8

. :

.

.

,(101 )

.

.( )

OECD -

OECD 32- - .9

( 18) –

- – ( 14)

.( 18% ) 19%- –

,

.

; " "

, , .

. – ,

, " "

.

: OECD 8

Understanding and In uencing Taxpayers’ Compliance Behavior, Forum on Tax Administration: SMECompliance Subgroup, OECD, 2010

F. Schneider and A. Buehn (2011), “Shadow Economies in Highly - 9

Developed OECD Countries: What are the Driving Forces?", IZA DP No. 6891.

Page 163: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

153

'

• – 2008 . ,8.1%-

.82%- –

• ,2.9%-

.

.

. ,39%-

, .

.

, ,

.

• .

.

• , 43 , 44-

. 42-

. ,

• ,

2011—2010- .

. , – ,

• 5%-

.2035 10%-

• ( )

.

,( )

, ,

.

Page 164: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

154

2013 ,

• – –

.

, , ,

. ,

) ,

, .(

.

,

.

• , 2007 1997-

.

• 2007

, , ,

.

. / " "

"

. ( " )

Page 165: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

155

:'

:' -'

.1

)

, .(

) ,

. , .(

,

1-' -' 2013 2001 , :

2013-

1

2006-20012013-2007 2009 2010 201120122013

( )

( ) 8049.51.91.81.81.81.91.81.82(2004 ) 8713.6-0.30.1-2.60.70.40.50.9

(2010 , " ) 120.00.82.2-0.53.72.71.51.4

( , ) 6.512.17.99.58.47.16.96.5

(2010 , " ) 97.9-1.66.53.19.810.05.61.9

( ) : 57.1-1.57.08.113.011.65.4-0.3

( ) 18.6-5.53.5-1.57.95.0-3.16.9

( ) 19.12.93.9-4.64.89.914.43.7

( , ) 91.6-4.75.13.711.317.46.42.5

( , ) 44.3-6.25.16.415.115.5-8.33.4

( , ) 42.0-5.54.57.41.92.99.511.8

( , ) 16.4-4.82.8-23.836.035.46.9-2.2

( , )21.438.30.62.6

(2010 , " ) 47.0-1.25.72.411.111.04.82.1

( ) 3247.5-4.04.3-1.57.90.4-1.410.9

---2.56.212.615.37.61.58.2

---0.62.411.52.93.12.61.9

--2.50.3-3.3-0.10.61.70.6

,

( ) --5.43.03.02.42.92.62.3

--5.92.40.81.62.92.41.4

. , 1

. 2002- , 2002 2

. 3

. , , :

Page 166: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

156

2013 ,

.1

2

:( )

. ,

, ,

,

,

. ,

.( )

,

)

,(

, , .

,(1-' -' )

,

.

,

.2-' -' ,

-' -' )

2012 ,(1

,

.

2-' -'

2010—2008- ,

,

,

,

. ,

2013—2011- ,

.(" ") ' ,' ,2012 1

( ) " " 2

. , . .

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

'-'-1 ,

, ,2002 2013

)" , (

)" , (

) " , (

: ) ", "( , .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'-'-2 ,

2002 2013

,

: )" ( .

, . 2011 .

Page 167: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

157

:'

2-' -' -

( ) - .

(1/11/2012 : ) 2012

(75%) ,70%- (LTV) .(50%) ,

2013

.

45% 35% .1

75% ;60%- 45% 50% ;( )

100% 2010 .75%- 60%

, " 800 ,60%-

(.1/1/2013 : ) . 25%

) 0.35% .2

.(0.22%

: .3

.20% 10%

(1/9/2013 : ) 2013

100% 40% .50%- .1 .

. .2

. 5 ,2011

.( ) 30- .3

.

.8%- 7%- " 4- – .1

.2014 ( ) – .2

. 18

Page 168: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

158

2013 ,

2011 . ,

50%-

,(5-' -' ) 2010—2008

. , ,

,

.(2-' -' )

.2

.

. ,( )

,

.3 ,

, ( )

. .

. ,4 (93%)

82% . , .

,

13.5% , , , .(3-' -' )

. 60%-

,

.5 (18%)

. -

( " ) ,

:( ) ,

,( ) ,( )

/ .( ) ( )

,( )

. ,

.6 11 , 13-

, – 38 " – 3

. , . ,

; , 4

.( " )

, , 5

. .

.(" ") ' ,' ,2012- 2011 6

, .

Page 169: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

159

:'

( " ) 60 – 2010

,8( " ) 2011 – 72020—2011

.

, " 65- 2012 ,( )

.9 " 79

" .( " 25) 2011—2007

.

) . , "

(.

56%) (3-' -' ) ,

, , ( "

: ;

, .

,

, . /

. –

. .15.7.2010 2019 7

3.8.2011- ,2013 " 8

.(" ") ' ,' ,2011 .11.8.2013-

. 7.5 9

3-' -' : , ,1

""

, .1

93.087.269.179.148.890.099.2

7.012.830.920.9 51.2 10.0 0.8

, .2

10021.34.76.20.86.560.5210017.312.325.217.312.915.0

2 10014.613.425.522.111.013.43 .3

0.40.30.91.57.60.70.1

0.10.10.30.42.80.20.0

2013 2002 .4

10023.118.124.58.49.116.8

. , 1

. 2

. 3

. , " , :

,

.

.

Page 170: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

160

2013 ,

,

.

. "

( ) 15.2- , " 30.2-

.10 ,2011—2010 24.4-

.(3-' -' ) 2011—2010-

, ,

.

, "

. " " .

4-' -' .

. ,

. ,

;

.

:

.( ) ,

, 2013 "

.11

. " 4,500 10

39%) : , 11

;(29%) ;(34%) ;(.(18%) ;(20%) - ;(25%)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

'-'-3 , ,

2000 2013

2000-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

: .

"

,2011—2010 .

.

Page 171: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

161

:'

-

.12

-

,

,

, ,

.

42.8- , " 44.3- –

2011- – 2012-

2010 .( " 47- )

, " 40-

.13

,

. " 14.5-

42 , .

.(1-' -' ) ,2011- 34- 38- ,

,

. ,

– –

) ,(5-' -' )

, , .(1-' -'

.

, .

.

. ,

. ,2014 ,

.14( )

, ,

Carolina, Osorio-Buitron and Stephanie Denis (2013), "The Housing Market in Israel", Interna- : 12

tional Monetary Fund (IMF) (December)

. . 13

, , , : , " 14

. , , , ,

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

'-'-4 :

, , ) (,

2001 2013

)"(

)"(

: .

"

2010 " 40-

,

. .

,

,

.

Page 172: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

162

2013 ,

. . -

,

.

.( )

: "

( ) : .15 " 2015

" ( ) . "

– , –

( ) . " 70 - " ( ) .

.16 4 "

. - 25% 2013

– :

– ,

.

.17

, : –

. 10 " 150- ,

.2020—2011 " 60,000-

: - - –

, ,

( 80%) , " 200 , " 15

.' ,2011 .

. 90- 60- (" ") " " , 16

; " 10,000 – ; " 21,000 – : 17

. " 7,500 – ; " 6,400 –

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

'-'-5 , ,

2000 2013

" ) (

: .

Page 173: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

163

:'

. ,

– – .

.

:

,

.18 . -

30%- 20%- (1 :

(3 ;38 " (2 ;(" ")

( )

,( ) (4 ;

, ,

(5 ; , ,

( " 200 )

. (5 ;

.

(1)

. 247.3- ,10.7%-

2012- . 162.8- ,

. 46.1- , 9.8- .19

5,000 ,80%-

, 38- , .

; 8,000-

. ,

, : "

, .20" "

.

" (2)

. " 9- ,

, " :

, 21.(4-' -' )

, " 6

, " , - , , , , , 18

.

2011 . 2012 " 19

, , , : " . SNA 1993- , .ISICrev. IV- , ;SNA 2008-

.

,2013 4.1%- 2012—2011 10%- 20

. ,2009-

. " – 4-' 21

,

,

,

,

.

Page 174: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

164

2013 ,

;

, "

.( " )

20- – ,

2010- . ; "

2011-

,( )

.

) ,(2-' -' )

,(

. , .

.3

– 92-

,2007- 2004 60- ;

.(1-' -' )

. ,

62% :

4-' -' ( " ) 2013 2009 , "

20092010201120121201320102011201212013

(' 3+' 2) .122.410.22.09.1

(' 3+' 2) : 5.43.0-2.03.0

.2

.101.7106.2112111.9107.94.55.8-0.1-3.3

(1) : 43.542.945.550.751.7-0.52.65.22.3

" (2) 58.263.266.561.356.25.03.3-5.2-5.62 .165.8187.2200.2204.1203.321.513.03.92.8

(1) : 94.6112123.6134.9137.117.411.611.26.0

" (2) 71.175.276.669.266.24.01.4-7.4-3.2

.3

" : .5.96.19.614.2

: .7.01.60.42.2

( ) .12.010.511.910.1

.0.9-2.8-1.96.3

166.8195.1214.7237251.728.319.622.319.6

.2012 2013- . 2013 1

. - 2

. , , :

, , . , .

Page 175: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

165

:'

.2009—2008- 53% ,

( " ) ,

.

, 2.1%- ,

.3.4%-

;

.(1-' -' )

.1999 ,

- 6-' -'

, .2010 1995

(5.2%) . ( ) ( )

. ,1995 ,

. , ,

( , )

.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

)4(

)2(

)3(

_

)4(

)2(

'

)3(

)2( )1(

)2(

)2(

'-'-6 "1 , - ,1995 2012

1 , . 2012-2008) .1 ( 2008 ;)2 ( 2009 ;)3 ( 2011 ;)4 (

2012 . 2013" ._ " : , , .

: -OECD .

,

- .

Page 176: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

166

2013 ,

.4

. ,

,(4%) 2011-

.(5-' -' ) 8.3%

, .(1-' -' ) ,

.

; ,82%-

;(5-' -' ) ,58%-

, .

7-' -' .

.

; 2008

.

, ; 2009

. – ,

.22

,

. – –

, - ,( " )

2009 " ,(2011) ' ' , , , 22

.85 ,"?2010-

5-' -' ( ) ( )

( )

200810.66.58.712.1810.23.3

200919.915.4165.61.62.10

201014.111.111.94.92.12.93.9

201141.82.65.12.93.73.8

20128.76.97.43.31.62.13.3

20138.16.16.52.91.01.31.4

2013-200881.657.865.638.518.324.216.6

. :

, ,2008- , ,82%-.

2009 . , .

Page 177: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

167

:'

. -

-

, -

,8-' -' ;

, . -

– .

,

, , , ,

.

,

)

.( '

,

,

,

.

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2000

2000

M11

2001

M09

2002

M07

2003

M05

2004

M03

2005

M01

2005

M11

2006

M09

2007

M07

2008

M05

2009

M03

2010

M01

2010

M11

2011

M09

2012

M07

2013

M05

'-'-7

,2000 2013

)" (

: .

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-02

-02 -

02-

03-

04-

04-

05-

06-

06-

07-

07-

08-

09-

09 -10

-10

-11

-11

-12

-13

-13

'-'-8

- ) 2002=100(

:" .

-

,

.

,

.

, .

Page 178: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

168

2013 ,

:' -'

: ,

(1)

(2) ;

.

5%- (1)

, .2035 10%-

,

( , )

, – .

: –

, .( )

. – , ,

(2)

, .

,

.

. , , ,

,

, .

. ,

( )

. "

" , ,

, . " ,

) , "

.(' ,

, , . -

, .

Page 179: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

169

:'

.1

,

,1 ( ) . -

.

. " ,

15%- , ,

.20%- 30%- " ; 24%-

, "

.

, .

2035 ,(1-' -' )

.10%- ,

.

.

– – ,2

, .3

.6%- – , 20% 2035- , 1

) - 2

.( -

. 3

1-' -' ( )

( )

2000201212035

323225

123

135

221

1510

302421

( ) 122

132

234

( , ) 121113

161413

0.330.250.23 (2012 ) 1

. ( " ) ,1

. :

.

,

.

Page 180: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

170

2013 ,

:

; , , ' ,

(2-' -' ) . ,

.(4 )

, -

. ,

,

, ,( 20%- )

.( )

, . 4

.

2-' -' ,( )

2012- 2001 ,

( )

20012012

""

431760362561

3374030939

"76246634

44952411557

4524843143

"89118416

521668642084

3113214316

"83177723

421153591675

4714724125

"88128317

441256421961

3774434439

"81197624

382361183250

271239341650

"65355248. :

Page 181: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

171

:'

. 5

,0.14% 2001-

2.7- ,(0.25%)

6 . 5%- ,

60% ; ,

: .

,( ) 2007-

.777%-

, , , , ,

.

,

0.13%) .8

. (2012

,

, .

0.01 ,

.

.

, :

, .

. ,

,

, 9 (3-' -' ) . ,

, , ,

.( )

– 10 ,

) .

11 .4-' -' (

20% 30% 2012 –

; . ,

. 4%- , 1% , ,

( ) . 5

.

. , 6

.

; 7

.

, " j 8

.2012- 90 .

. 9

. 10

." " 11

,

.

,

.

,

.

Page 182: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

172

2013 ,

( )

, ,

,

( ) ,

.12

12

.

3-' -' 2012- 2001 ,

( )

20012012

""

11445585563

4054528937

"51493664

243761175067

3353825833

"57424258

342660274370

3554023730

"69315050

1412061282957

31839271643

"72285545 ,3-' -' , , 1

. ,

. :

4-' -' 2012- 2001 ,( )

( )

20012012

,1573412744

121110817172115

912141312131216

1115191211161014

( ) 3443475331364440

20127111711910. :

Page 183: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

173

:'

,13%- ;( )

.20%-

2012 2005- .

, 280 ,13

.( " )

:14

.15 2012- ,10%-

75%- "

. 800- , , ;

1%- , 150- 2012-

(5-' -' ) .16

,

.

, . ( )

.8%

, ,

. ( )

, ) ,

.1.2 ,90%- 13

,1.5 .2.5

. 2 14

. 20%- , 70%- 15

) 0.05%- 16

.(2%- " ,0.08%

5-' -' 2012 ,

( )

31215

8574

22333514

23242820

44362947. :

.

.

Page 184: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

174

2013 ,

. (

: , .

– .( )

. – ,

.2

, 17

, "

, .18 "

, . ,

, ,

.19

. – 20

,

. ,

" ,

. ,21

,

, "

, . "

. ,

2013 .

) ( ) -

. 11- ( ,

:

, " 17

, ,( ,40%- 54%) . – –

,6% 2011- 2008 " - 18

.2012

) ( ) " 19

, ,( , .(30% 25% 10%) .(2013 ) 60% 50%- ( )

8% , 3%- 2011 2005 20

.(2005 1999)

-2010 ) " , 21

10% 5% .30%- , ,34%- ,39%- (1999-1998 2011. , ,

– , – .

, ,.

Page 185: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

175

:'

) ,

" .22 (

. - "

, -

"

.

.

) ;

59) .( ,19- 9

.( 38) " (

, 30-

,OECD

: .

16- 50 OECD

;(13%) (66%) " ;

– , , ,15-

. ,

, , –

, .

" ,

, ,( " ," ")

)

24 , .23(

" :

, "

.(65 ' ) " ,

, .

,( " )

, ,

26 .25

, "

.

, ,

. The global innovation index, Cornell University ,INSID and WIPO 22

. 6% ( ICT- ) 23

," : " (2006) ' ' 24

.

.2007 , 25

. " " 26

,

, ,

,

" .

,

,

.

Page 186: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

176

2013 ,

.27 – –

.

. – ,

( ,23% 20%) OECD-

. ,(22%) OECD

,

.

:

, - ,

,

, ;

, ,28

.

,

,

. ,

. ,

,(60%- ) "

" - . " ,

. 36 (2010 ) 29

.( 0.08%) , 0.17%-

,30 "

. "

" ,(65%) "

10%- ( ) ;31

. " , "

(0.3%) "

, , 1.0%–0.6%)

, , , .(

; , "

.

. , 27

,(51 ) 28

. ,(39) (51) ,(90)

,2011 OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013 29

2010 , .2010 . 0.14%

.OECD (2010–2011) 1.4% ,3.5% " 30

0.5%- - 2% , 8.5% " OECD- 31

.(2006 )

, .

10%- " , 25%.

Page 187: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

177

:'

. "

, , ,

, ,( " )

,

.32

, " (2007 , )

" ,"

" .

" ,

- , " :

, .

.(2006 ) " ,

, , "

, , 1-' ' 32

.2007

6-' -' , "

2011 2007

( )

"

" 1

1

"

3

"484331

3.486350.7

3.179361

2.62912300.3

2.582460.8

2.375340.9

1.974310.7

1.984460.6

1.573220.5

1.579370.5

1.460200.7

1.252--

0.775290.2

'0.567440.3

0.585520.2. , , , , , 1

.2011-2010 2

. 3

. ,OECD- :

(2007)

" ,

,"

" .

Page 188: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

178

2013 ,

. , - , "

– " , ,

. , " , -

, ,

. ,

" ,

.

,

" .

.

- 21% , 3% – -

" . " –

. "

" : "

( ) ,

. "

( - ) :( - )

- ) , 99

, .(

.

. , "

"

– - , "

- " ,

, " " .

, , .33

. "

,

,

.

,

45% .34

, ,( " )

2012 - .35

. ,(2011) 33

.2012 5,918- 2000 2,553- ( ) 34

.2012 3,000- 2000 680- : .

30% ,600- 35

.

" . " , ".

,-

. .

Page 189: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

179

:'

,36

.

, ,

: .

, .

; 37 "

.( 6% )

, - ,

, . , "

(' , )

, .

,

.(2013 , ,2,600- 2,000)

."2012 - , " 36

, , , .

2,784 2013 , " 37

,( " ) 1,600 : 750 . 420- , 850

.

7-' -' : "

2006 ,OECD-

OECD-

OECD-

1.51.62.5

, 0.20.30

, 0.40.50.9

, , 1.731.4

3.65.31.5

,0.60.90.9

- 0.40.50.6

21.96.2

1.61.91.7

,7.67.912.4

3.55.38.2.OECD- :

Page 190: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

180

2013 ,

.

, " (60%- )

, (23%) .

.

. ,

,

.

,

.

:

, 333) " 6- 1996

.(

.(2012 2007 " 354)

, 5% ,

. ,

( ) .(2012) " 4.2- ,

2006 .38

( 15%)

( ) , .( 30%)

:

, .39 0.46 ,0.24

;

, :

,

. ,

,40 ,

, .

)

.(

; –

.

.(2006 ) 40% ,43% 38

2%- ,40%- 2012 " "

, 2006 1995 39

.2006 0.24- 1995 0.35-

, - - 9 40

(1977 ) " " .

.1997 " - " Drori, I. S. Ellis, & Z. Shapira (2012). The evolution of a new industry: A genealogical approach.

Stanford University Press. , " "

.

, , .

, ) .(

Page 191: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

181

:'

. ,

,

.41

( ) ,

)

.(

,

.

:

,( )

,( )

, .

.( )

,( )

,

.

:

,

, .

.

: 41

5% ,(2007 1995) 15% .

, ,

.

Page 192: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

182

2013 ,

:' -'

.

,1

, , . " "

, ,

.

.

( ) .

. .

,

, ;

, ,

, . ( )

. ,

, ,

.

1997- . –

, 2007

.

, , ,

. ,

. / " "

) "

, ( "

. "

– .2007

, – , , "

.

.

.

." " 1

, .

, .

, .

Page 193: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

183

:'

2007 .1

. 2 ;

.

,( )

.

. ,

, .

,

,3

. ,

.

.( ) –

, .

, ,4 ,

.

1992-

2007

.2%-

, ,

1995- . ,

2005

,

,

.(1-' -' ) 5%-

,

2000

,

. 2007

.

,(2-' -' ) ,

.(4-' -' ,3-' -' )

. ,33%- 32%- 2

. , 3

, 4

.( – )

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'-'-1 ,

-12 , , -G4

-IMF) ( ,1992 2012

-G4

:Bloomberg-IMF.

.

.

Page 194: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

184

2013 ,

,

.

,

,

.

,

.

,

.

, 1-' -' 7-' -' 5-' -'

.5

, 2007 5

.(2007 2000 )

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

'-'-2 ,

, -G4 ¹

) ( ,1998 2012

-G4

¹ , , , ,, , , , ,' .

:Bloomberg .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

'-'-3 " - -10 ,

, -G4 ¹

) ,2001 2013(

G4

¹ , , , , , , , ,- , '.

:Bloomberg -IMF.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

'-'-4 ¹ "

-10 , , -G4 ²

) ,2001 2013(

G4

¹ -G4 ,

" .² , , , , ,

, , ,- , ' . :Bloomberg -IMF.

Page 195: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

185

:'

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

'-'-5

-IMF ,

) ( ,1981 2012

- - -

:- IMF.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

'-'-6 ,

-IMF ,

) ( ,1981 2012

:- IMF.

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

'-'-8

) ,

2000 2013(

)4.097 =31/07/1999(

, "

: Bloomberg -IMF.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

'-'-7 ,

, ) ,1991 2013 ,2000=100 (

MSCI

MSCI

" 100

.: Bloomberg .

Page 196: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

186

2013 ,

, , .

,2001 . ,2000 .

6 " ,

,

.7 .2005

, -

2007

, , , ,

) – .8

(

.9

. 6

Dong and Robert (2013):"Transmitting global liquidity to East Asia", BIS working paper No 431. : 7

John Taylor (2013):"International monetary policy coordination", BIS working paper 437

Hofman and Bogdanova (2012):"Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "great deviation"?, : 8

, 90- 80- .BIS Quarterly Review, September 2012 .

. .

Caruana (2012): "International monetary policy interactions" ,Speech to the CEMLA_SEACEN con- 9

ference, Uruguay.

1-' -' ,1

2013 1981 , :

1999 19810.30-0.090.07

2013 20000.820.820.95

1999 1981-0.080.140.40

2013 20000.570.720.74

1999 19920.030.460.40

2013 20000.900.930.90. 1

.IFS- " :

Page 197: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

187

:'

. –

,

.

. ,

,

.

. .

"

.10

-

2005 2001

,

2003 ;

.2007

.(9-' -' )

,2005

,

– 11

.2007 ,

2007 , , .

. , ,

, ,

.

,

.12

, 2005 2001

, ,2001 .

. ,2007 " 10

, , .2013

.(FED- ) Federal Reserve- 11

.Hofman and Bogdanova (2012)- Taylor (2013) 12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

'-'-9 ,

-G4 ) ,100=2000(

-G4

: .OECD

-

2005- 2001

.

2001 2005- ,

.

Page 198: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

188

2013 ,

. 2

,

,

, .

, ,2002

.

, 2003 .2003- 2002

2004 .

– – 2007- 2006 , .2005

. ,

,

2013 2008 . 2007

.14 ,13

.2 15

– 2013- 2007 –

( )

. ,0-

,( )

" . ,

: ,16"

.17( )

( )

.18" "

( ) ,

.( )

.2012 ' 13

.0- 14

. 15

. ( ) , , , ,

. , , ,

.2013 16

, – .1 : 17

, " – .2 , .4 ,(" ") " .3 , " , , – (forward guidance) " " , . ( ) , ;

. .

" " 18

. –

) ( .0- .

, ) .(

Page 199: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

189

:'

,

. .

,

. ,

– –

: .

( ) .19

, ,

, , .

, .

,20 ,

, " .

.21

, – ,

) –

. ,(

, ,

.22

. , .23 "

, , ,

" ,

.

:

. ,

, . " "

,

)

.(24 –

,

,(8-' -' )

. 19

. 20

, , . ,

. " , " 21

, " . .

, 22

.

. , , , , , , 23

, Taylor (2013) 24

. - GPM6-

.

.

, ,

.

.

. "

, .

Page 200: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

190

2013 ,

. " .

" .

. ,

.25

,(" " ) ,2008

,

2008 4.25% :

" – .2009 0.5%

, ,2009 .26

;2011 3.25% ,

.272011- ,2010

, 2013- 2012 ,

.2013 1%

, 2007

2008 , .

) , ,2009

, (9-' -'

.

,

-

– , .28

.

,

.

, , –

2005- 2001 . –

( ) .

.2007

( )- ( ) , ( ) 2-' -' .

2007

OECD ,

, , .

.

, ,

.

.2011 2009 25

. " 18 ,(2009 ) 26

.2010- 2009 27

.( ) ' 28

" .

2008 4.25%- .2009 0.5%-

Page 201: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

191

:'

. ,

– , ,

.

, , ( )

) .

1999) , , , (

. ,(2007

. ,

1999 –

. 2013

.3

, ,

– , .

, , –

)

, .(

2-' -' , ¹

OECD- ² :

2007.4-2013.21999.4-2007.41999.4-2013.22007.4-2009.4

49.919.125.9-20.3-9.8-11.719.4-3.00

26.87.418.010.84.95.640.5-2.75

21.75.615.3-2.16.4-7.919.2-3.75

15.74.011.365.710.550.091.8-3.50

13.1-1.314.7-16.6-2.7-14.3-5.7-3.75

12.00.711.267.4-2.671.887.5-3.50

8.61.27.3-------------3.75

5.9-1.97.956.7-1.859.666.0-3.75

1.715.0-11.679.13.073.882.1-4.00

0.84.0-3.181.04.573.282.5-3.00. . . 1

. 2

.OECD- " :

.

2013- 1999

.

Page 202: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

192

2013 ,

, " .

.

,

. , ,

-

- , .

. ,

. ,

. , ,

,

.

, ,

- .

.

– – .

.2015 " ,

.4 ,

,2014 , .

) ,2015-

; " (tapering) (

.29 ,

.

.

2013 ,

.2013

" 10- " , .

.

, – , "

. ,

.

.

.(' )

)

,(

.

, 10- " FED- 2013 29

.2014

, , , .

.

Page 203: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

193

:'

. – –

,

. ,

,

( )

, , -

, , , ,

" )

. , ,(

, ,

, .

, . ,

, ( ) 2003

, 67.5%- , 2013- .

,

,OECD- .2014

, " .( )

.

,

.

,

. ; "

, , ,

,( ) ,

. .

"

.

. " " ,

.

, ,

, .

.30

.

.

, .

- ,

, , .31

. ,

, . 30

. ,

.( ) ' 31

-

.

.

Page 204: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 205: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

195

'

• ( )

,25% .

.60%- OECD-

.OECD-

.

. ,

.

:

.

. - -

, .OECD-

. - ,

• "

.

. ,

; ,

. ,

• . - 2011- 1998

. -

Page 206: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

196

2013 ,

- .1

- .

,OECD- 2010- 1 -

;2( 1-' )

, .( 1-' )

,OECD-

-

.( 2-' - 2-' )

;60%- OECD- ,25%-

.OECD- 35% ,25% -

. 1

.

. - 2010- 2

0.4700.501

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

'

-

OE

CD

-

"

'

'-1 ' ,

-,OECD 2010

: -.OECD

Page 207: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

197

:'

28.0 28.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'

-

'

"

OE

CD

-

'-1 ,

-,OECD 2010

: -.OECD

0.314

0.376

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

'

OE

CD

-

"

'

'-2 ' ) ( ,

-,OECD 2010

: -.OECD

Page 208: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

198

2013 ,

- " " .

2003-

, .

,

; -

.3

.( 3-' - 3-' ) -

2006 -

( ) –

. ,

. - . -

. 2011- 2003

( )

( ) , . 25%-

, . 0.7- – 21%-

:

,2011 10%- 2003 5%- ,

12%- .44%- 34%-

.(8%- – ,15%- )

.2012 1-' 3

11.4

20.9

0

5

10

15

20

25'

-

OE

CD

-

"'

'-2 )

( , -OECD , 2010

: -.OECD

2003- .

- . - .

2011- 2003 .

.OECD-

Page 209: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

199

:'

.

. ,21%-

2013- ,

, ,

. -

, .

.

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

'-3 - ,2000 2011

- ) (

: .

'

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

'-3 ,

2000 2011

) (

: .

2013-

,

, -

.

Page 210: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°
Page 211: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

201

:'

,

- " -

.

. - -

,

.10

)

; ,( 12-

.11 ,

- .

, ,

: 5-' . -

. 12 -

. ,OECD-

Friedmann Y. and R. Frish (2010), "The Effect of the Liquidity Constraint on the Accessibility of 10

Higher Education in Israel", Israel Economic Review Vol. 8.

.109 , , ," - " ,(2012) . , 11

- - 12

. -

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2725

21

17

10

16 17

2124

21

1114

17

22

36

'-4 ,2011

12 12 -15 15

: 2011.

.

,

,

. -

Page 212: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

202

2013 ,

: .

, 3%-

5-' .( 3-' 5-' )

,13 -

.OECD-

, -

.

, .

, -

, .

,

, ." "

- .

, -

;

13

. , -

'

"

-OECD

y = -0.0425x2 + 4.5095x - 77.258R² = 0.6417

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

-

)(

'-5 -

, 2010

: -OECD.

Page 213: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

203

:'

, ,

.14 ,

,OECD-

. 17% OECD- , 11%-

) OECD- - ,

, .15(6-' ) OECD- ,( 1- 1-'

.16OECD- ( )

,

. -

, - , -

.17 OECD-

IMF Staff Discussion Note (2014): "Redistribution, Inequality and Growth" 14

4.2% 2009 . 15

.OECD- 6.7% ,

. 2-' 16

. , 17

. - – – , ,OECD-

.

10.9

17.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'

-

OE

CD

'-6 ,

-OECD 12011 ,OECD

1, ", - . ,

-1.5, 2.4, 4 -2.4 , .

: -OECD.

, 11%-

OECD- . 17%

Page 214: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

204

2013 ,

.2

- : .

. -

. -

.(1-' ) OECD-

,

.(7-' ) OECD-

)

.OECD- , .(

2012- - , '

– 18OECD- – 10%-

.(OECD- 22% 16%)

( ) 1

(3)- , - (2) , - (1) ,

. -

. OECD- 18

0.60

0.98

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

'

OECD-

'-7 ,

-,OECD2010

.OECD- :

, .OECD-

.OECD-

Page 215: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

205

:'

, . - –

, . -

, ,

. -

,OECD-

, , .

.

.( ,1-' )

(14 ) - .

, -

, - .

. -

- . , -

.

- .

( , ) 60%-

( ) " ,19

, .

, ;

" .(8-' ) .

. 19

1-' -

2010 ,OECD- 29 ,

'

'

-

(1)0.16-0.590.76

(2)

0.030.37-0.39

(2)- (1) (3)-0.39

.2010 OECD :

– –

. -

"

, ,

. -

Page 216: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

206

2013 ,

.20 -

2003-

. 4.7- , 0.9-

, -

. -

, -

. , , , 20

.

7%

10%

14%

22%

46%

3% 6%

11%

22%58%

13%

17%

19%22%

29%

"

7%9%

11%

15%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

23%

17%

13%11%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

"

30%

25% 25%26%

31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

'-8 "

: 2012.

- , . -

Page 217: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

207

:'

1 )

(3 ) (2-

,

,2- 1 ,

,

– .21

/

.

:(9-' )

1%- .1

.

1%- .2

. "

.3

. , "

(1 )

, :

.

,

,

. , ,

, ,2

- ,

0.9%- " .

. ; ,0.4%-

. , "

" ,( ) ,3

, " - ,( )

.

,

. - "

21

.("2014 " 10 )

3%

1%

1%

1%

0%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

'-9 ) (

, " , -)1 ( ,)2 (

" ,-)3 ( "

"

-1.5%

-0.3% -0.4%0.0%

0.6%

-1.65%

-1.15%

-0.65%

-0.15%

0.35%

0.85%

1.35%

"

: 2012.

Page 218: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

208

2013 ,

:1-'

,

,2011 .

," " ;

. ,

70%- . ,

20%- , " 2,250-

.

, 40%-

, 60%- , .

.1

)

.2 - - ,(

.

:

, , –

– ( ) ;

;

.( )

.3

,

, .

; 40%-

.35%

. 1

70%- ,63%-

. .

– –

.

. ,1-

30-

10%- – ,53% 83% –

3-' 2013 5 1

.2006

, - 0.025- - ' 2

.

. 3

Page 219: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

209

:'

, .

.1997

-

50% : .(1 )

20%- , . -

( ) .

,

, , .

.

28% , 70%- ,

.

. , , ,

. .4

, – , –

1997 .

. : ,

.( )

4

.

18

3330

19

0

7

17

31

44

2

38

32

20

10

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 )( 2 3 4 5 )(

1 ,

-

: 2011.

Page 220: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

210

2013 ,

1

20111997

63 70 58 73

3.3 3.9 3.0 3.6

0.8 1.2 0.8 1.1

( ) 70 28 84 39

3 24 0 12

100 100 99 100

65 85 17 48

58 87 17 87

12 42 12 48

23 42 11 27

26 62

53 75

30 70 41 68

: 33

55 84 11 39

39 78 1 5

: 41

.2011- 1997 , :

Page 221: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

211

:'

- :2-'

, , ,

(' ) .1

.

. -

-

, .

-

.2 - -

:

,

. -

. -

) 1

, , ,

- ,(

- .2011- 1998

. ( )

-

.3 - -

,2003- , .

,

.

,4

- .

;2011- ,2010

,2.15 . 1

.2013 ,

.Milanovic, 2005; Theil, 1989; Akita, 2000; Braun, 1988 2

, , , , , : 3

. , . .2004 , 2012- . 15%- .

.2011

, 2012 . 2005 4

, 2009 . . 11 .2016—2012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1 -

- 1 ,2011 1998

)(

- ) (

- ) (

- ) (

1( - . -

- , )

(, 6 ) (.

: , .

Page 222: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

212

2013 ,

- .5

. 2006-

2

, 6—5- .( )

, . 0.6- – , 2- –

, . 8- –

. –

, 2011- 3

: .1998-

. ,

:

, ,

.

, ,

.(2 )

- 1994- 1990 (2000) Akita : 5

- (2005) Milanovic .( 0.029) 3- - . 5—3 – – 2000- 1990 ,

. 1.3- 2010- 1998

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

)" , 2012(1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

)(

2 ,

1998 2011

1 2000 -2001.

: , .

Page 223: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

213

:'

. - 2011- 1998 4

, -

- , - , .

, .

. -

.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1998 2011 1998 2011 1998 2011 1998 2011 1998 2011

3 , 2011

11998

1 . : , .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

4 - , ,

1998 ,2004 -2011

1998 2004 2011

: , .

Page 224: Àǯ½ ² ÁÈɳ ° Dz¯ · 2014-03-30 · .¦ ²³£ ±ª ¦ ´ ² ¨³ § «²® §£²° £ ´ £ ¥ .² ±¨ ´ ª££°£³ £ ª´ ,©¥ ´ ³¬¦ §£ ³² ¢¢°¦ §£°

214

2013 ,

—1997 : - " , - ,

.(2012 ) ,"2010

Akita, T. (2000). Decomposing regional income inequality using two-stage nested Theil

decomposition method . International University of Japan.

Braun, D. (1988). "Multiple measurements of US income inequality". The Review of

Economics and Statistics, 398-405.

Haughton, J., & Khandker, S. R. (2009). Handbook on poverty and inequality. World Bank.

Milanovic, B. (2005). "Half a World: Regional inequality in five great federations". Journal

of the Asia Pacific Economy, 10(4), 408-445.

Theil, H., & Sorooshian, C. (1979). "Components of the change in regional inequality".

Economics Letters, 4(2), 191-193.

Theil, H. (1989). "The development of international inequality 1960–1985". Journal of

Econometrics, 42(1), 145-155.