1

1

WEEK 5: CAN THE POPULATION EXPLOSION BE CONTROLLED?

F-2007

Richard H. BernstenAgricultural Economics

Michigan State University

2

I. Trends in World Population Growth

A. Pre-Modern (Fig 3.1)High birth rate (40/1,000)High death rate (40/1,000)Population stable to 1500s (life expectancy=25 years)

B. ModernIncreasingly rapid growth (Cartoon)o 1850-1950: 100 years to double (1.25-2.5 billion)o 1950-1987: 37 yrs to double (2.5-5.0 billion)

Current population: 6.622 billion (US Census Bureau, 9/31/07)http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html

2

3

Future population growth projections

Scenarios assume different future fertility/death rates (Figure 1)2050--9.2 billion (medium scenario), 1974 est. = 10-12 billion) 2100--10 billion and remain stable or decline (UN)?

But AIDS rate = >25% in some Sub-Saharan African countries!!• Declining life expectancy (Zim.: 1970-75=58, Now = 39.5 yrs.) • Rise of shortgevity in Sub Saharan Africa (Zim., aspirations)

Key ConceptsReplacement fertility level (RFL)--2.1 kids/couple

Zero population growth--in long run, countries will achieve ZPGafter RFL is reached

But population will still increase after RFL is achieved (Why?)o Population momentum (3 billion people <24 yrs. old,

50% of world’s current population)

4

C. What Causes Rapid Population Growth? (Table 4.3)Key Determinants

Death rateMigration rate (Current Pattern)o US--historical & current source of population growth

Early 1900s, Europe; Now Africa, LAC, Asia In US, rise in OTM illegal immigration (CA & Brazil)Immigrants in past 30 years = equal 1/3 of all US immigrants

o Europe--immigration backlash (How to reduce illegal emigration?)

Total fertility rate (TFR), higher TFR = more rapid population growth def. Total # of children a woman has between age 15-49

Demographic Transition ModelShows how nations with high pop. growth achieve lower rates(1st--hi fert.+hi death rates, 2nd—low death+hi fert. rates, 3rd—low fert +low death rates)

Developed countrieso Death rates & birth rates fell gradually since 1850sWhy?O o o

O o o

3

5

LDCso Death rates declined rapidly (1930s-1970s) to 20/1,000

• Health, sanitation improvements• Food production technology

o But birth rates (fertility) remained high (40/1,000)o Results--population explosion!o Then, birth rates (fertility) declined in 1970s (DT, Figure 2.1)

Country 1965 TFR 2000-2005 TFRIndia: 6.2 3.0Mexico: 7.0 2.5 (2.1 by 2050!)Global TFR: 1950=5.0 2.7

UN Projections (2005) for number of children/women 15-19 yrs.) World =2.5; Africa=4.1, Asia=2.4, LA=2.1, NA=2.0, Europe=1.6

Today, Worldwide:o TFR <2.1 in 52 countries=44% of world population (Figure)o TFR <2.1 in 12 LDCso Significant decline in many Catholic & Islamic countrieso Results--slower world population growth rate

6

D. Trends in Rate of World Population GrowthGrowth rate peaked in early 1960s--2.04% per year (Figure)Current rate--1.2% per year (2000-2005) “Showstopper”!!Projected rate--0.34 (2045-2050)Growth rate is declining RAPIDLY in all regions, except Africa

Two Stories Population Growth Rate/year (Fig. 2.2)o High income countries 0.7% (pop. implosion, Spain!)o Middle income: 0.9% (great success)o Low income : 1.8% (some success)

Population Myth--uncontrolled population growth! But major differences exist between counties (Fertility Map)

High population growth rates (17 countries (>2.5%) Where?Angola, Benin, Chad, D.R. Congo, Guatemala, Jordon, Kuwait,Madagascar, Niger, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, W. Bank/Gaza, Yemen

4

7

Successful LDCs (< 2%) Where?Bolivia, Burundi, Haiti (1.9); Cambodia, Egypt, Namibia, Venez. (1.8); Bangladesh, El Salvador, Colombia, Thailand (1.7); Algeria, Costa Rica, Mexico (1.6); DR, Ecuador, Panama, India, Peru (1.5); Mexico (1.4); Indonesia, Sri Lanka (1.3); Brazil, Chile (1.2), Tunisia, Vietnam, Zambia (1.1); Argentina, Zimbabwe (1.0), China (0.7).

Western/industrialized countries (low–population implosion!!)US (1.0%); Canada (0.9); Portugal, Spain (0.5); Belgium (0.4); Denmark, Sweden (0.3); UK, (0.2); Germany (0.1); Italy (-0.1); Poland (-0.3); Russia (-0.5); Ukraine (-0.8); Bulgaria (-0.9)(ALL of Europe below RFL, Europe = the Gray Continent)

Implications of doubling” time (Figure 3.2)o World--fewer years required to double population, reversal (Fig)

o Major regional differences (old, example only) (Figure 3.2)• Low: Europe, 270 yrs.• High: Africa, 22 yrs. (Average fertility rate = 6.1)

o Pop. growth paradox: most rapid growth in poorest countries

8

II. Distribution of World's Population

A. Largest Countries Most Important for Determining Future Population5 countries = 48% of World’s Population! (China 21%; India 16%; US 5%; Indonesia 3%, Brazil 3%)

10 countries account for 60% of annual increase (1995-2000)(India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, US, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico, Philippines)

B. Distribution of World’s Population Shares Is Changing Dramatically98% of projected world pop. growth in LDCs (2000-2005)

Africa’s share of world population is increasing rapidlySee: regional share trends and resulting shares (Fig. 30.5)

5

9

Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2050 (%) Change 1950 vs.2050Africa 9 13 21 + >140%Asia 55 60 58 + 5% Europe 22 12 7 DecliningLAC 7 9 9 + 29%N. Amer. 7 5 5 Declining

Note: 1950, Europe = 3 x Africa, 2050, Europe =1/3 Africa Why?

Future LDC’s Population Shareo 1950 = 67% (Figure 1)o 2000 = 83%o 2050 = 89%

Implications?o .

o .

10

III. Impact of Current Population Trends in LDCsA. Rapidly Aging Population

Population Pyramids (Census Bureau)(Figure 8.1)

LDCs = cone shaped (Pakistan, Figure)DCs = rectangular (Sweden, Figure)

Age distribution explains differences in pyramids (1975)Region <15 yrs >65 yrs Future? (Figure 2)Africa 45% 3%LDCs 37% 4% (World Age Distribution)DCs 22% 11%

By 2050, world’s + 60 year population will increase from 10 to 21%

Consequences for LDCs?o Must invest in kids--education, child health; creating jobs

o Other problems?

6

11

Consequences for DCs (and LDCs in the future)?(Japan/Europe, workers: retired—now = 3:1; 2050=1:1)

o Facing a labor shortage, increasingly dependant on migrants Spain’s & other EU country’s solution?

o Must invest in meeting the needs of the elderly--straining social security/retirement, health care

o Other?

B. Rapidly Growth in Urban PopulationBegan with Industrial Revolution in Europe/US in early 1800sNow urban areas in LDCs are growing rapidly

Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2030(%)LA 42 76 85Africa 15 37 54Asia 17 37 55

12

Soon (2007), most people will live in cities (Figure1.2)o 1990--majority of world population ruralo 2000--21 cities > 10 m. people (17 in LDCs) (Figure)o 2030--urban population will = double ruralo 21st century--90% of population growth in cities (Figure)

Growing problems common to all LDC mega-cities (Photo)o Water, sanitation, solid wastes, pollutiono Unemployment, poverty, housing shortageso Potential for civil violence, radical religious fundamentalism

Priorities for improving the lives of urban dwellerso Reduce population growth among residents (family planning)o Improve education, healthcare, sewerage, housing, clean

water, transportation, job creationo Greater national & international investment in improving the

cites (1970-2000, aid for cities = only 4% of total international aid)

7

13

IV. Is Rapid Population Growth “Really” A Problem?A. Pessimists–predictors of doom!

Malthus (1789)Predicted pop. growth would exceed food production capacitySaw famine (positive) & postponing marriage (preventative) as only checks on population growthDidn't foresee...What?

Ehrlich (biologist), Population Bomb (1968, 1989)Renewed Malthus’ warningsPromoted contraception as solution

Flavin (Worldwatch Institute)Environmental change, resource constraints & declining quality of life as check on population

B. OptimistsRichman: Population not a problem! (Figure)

Human welfare is improving--life expectancy, infant mortality, food availability, nutritionPopulation growth promotes progress via specialization/division of labor, which raises productivity & income (economies of scale)

14

Simon (economist), The Ultimate Resource (1980s)More people leads to more possibility of innovation What if Einstein’s mother had practiced family planning?

C. Current ViewPopulation growth puts pressure on land, water, biodiversity resources => threatens sustainability & slows development

Development slows population growthsWhy?

Slower population growth promotes developmentWhy?

Carrying capacity concept: def. population vs. available resources

But population growth in LDCs is only partly responsible for worldwide environmental degradationDC’s have greater impact on environment than LDC’s population growth, due to consumption (richest 20%=85% of consumption)

8

15

V. What are the Prospects for Further Reducing Fertility in LDC?

A. Determinants of TFRDirect (4)--marriage age, birth interval, abortion, contraceptionIndirect (5)--education, job, location, social status, religion

B. Why Are Fertility Rates High in SOME LDCs?Must replace society (Photo)o Conditioned by high mortality

Need labor (kids = wealth) (Photo)o Girls for housework, boys for farm work

Must insure future security (Photo)o Kids support old folks

Cultural values (play audio)o Norms: kids desired, birth => status (Shona, mom’s name)o Preference for sons, especially in Asia (China, India) (Photo)Note: China & India—male preference is skewing gender mix How?

16

C. Why Does Development Reduce Fertility?Reduces need for many birthso Less infant mortality, less births needed

Reduces need for laboro > urban, need less laboro > technology, labor less valuable

Improves security of elderlyo Social security systems provide safety net

Reduces desire for sonso With > education/opportunities, female kids have > value

D. What Methods Exist for Reducing Fertility?Traditional--abstinence, breast feeding, spacing, induced abortions, contraceptive foods, male/female condom (Photo)

Modern--condom, pill (1960), loop, sterilization (Photo)

9

17

E. How Are Govts. & NGOs in LDCs Promoting Family Planning?Publicizing benefits of small families & providing information o Traditional--song, dramao Modern—TV/soaps, radio, plays, billboards (Photo)

Improving access to contraceptives via heath clinics (Photo)o Offering choices–not just one methodo Subsidizing cost

Increasing social pressureo Requiring permission to have a child (China)o Educating men (large family=macho/virility)o But, values/attitudes change slowly

Offering monetary incentives/disincentiveso Bonuses for sterilization (previously in India)o Fining couples for having too many kids (previously in China)

Passing laws related to marriageo Minimum age for marriage (Tunisia, China)

18

F. Have Family Planning Programs Been Successful?Great increase in contraceptive use since 1960 (Figure 6.4)

Contraceptive use reduces fertility rate (Figure)

NEW Evidence of Declining TFRsResults of survey/study in LDCs, N=300,000 women (Photo)

o Success in parts of Africa since 1970s:• Kenya (-36%), Zimbabwe (-18%), Botswana (-26%)

o Most women use family planning:• LDCs=60%• DCs=>70%

o Most LDC women want fewer kids (Figure)

o Great unmet demand--20% of LDC & 50% African women)(Funding constraint)

o Meeting demand would reduce LDC growth to1.6%/year

10

19

G. What factors have contributors to this success?Strong family planning programs

PLUS indirect impact of development.on contraceptive use/fertility o Higher income (also reduces emigration!!!)

o Greater urbanization

o Improved women’s/child health

o More female education/economic opportunities (Figure)(strong link between women’s productive & reproductive role)

Example of great success--Kerala, Indiao What’s unique about Kerela?

o Emphasized both• Cultural factors--education + social agreement

• Family planning--clinics, condom distribution, word-of-mouth campaigns

20

VI. How Can Developed Countries Help?Several rich US Philanthropists/Foundations recognize importance/give $ for family planning--Rockefeller Foundation, Packard Foundation, Ted Turner , Warren Buffett

DC government can help by providing more aid foro Family planning

Bush cut funding for the UN Population Fund, due to pressure from religious right (cut aid $ to agencies that refused to ban abortions/de-emphasize condoms)

o Promoting economic developmentPopulation growth isn’t the only problem

Economic development slows population growth

Development = the best contraceptive

11

21Return to p. 2

22Return to p. 2

12

23

Scenarios in 2003 (2050): High = 10.6 billionMedium = 9.1 billionLow = 7.7 billion

Return to p. 3Recent Changes—2050 Medium2005—8.9 billion2007—9.2 billion

24

Return to p. 3

13

25

Return to p. 2

26

Return to p. 5

14

27

Return to p. 5

28Return to p. 6

Severe famine in China

15

29

Return to p. 6

30

Return to p. 6

16

31

Return to p. 7

32Return to p. 7

17

33

Return to p. 7

34Return to p. 8

18

35

Return to p. 8

36

Return to p. 9

19

37

Return to p.10

38

Return to p. 10

20

39

Return to p. 10

Less DevelopedPct. < 15 yrs old

More DevelopedPct. < 15 yrs. old

More DevelopedPct > 60 yrs old

Less DevelopedPct > 60 yrs old

40

Return to p. 12

21

41

Return to p. 12

42

Return to p. 12

22

43

Return to p. 12

44Return to p. 6

23

45

© 2004 Population Reference Bureau

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16 5-90-4

Age

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Age Distribution of the World’s Population

Return to p. 10

46Return to p. 3

24

47

Return to p. 13

48Return to p. 15

25

49Go to p. 50

50

Go to p. 51

26

51

Go to p. 52

52Return to p. 15

27

53

Return to p. 15

54

Return to p. 15

28

55

Return to p. 16

56

Return to p. 16

29

57Return to p. 17

58

Go

to

p.

Return to p. 17

30

59

Return to p. 18

60

Return to p. 18

31

61

Return to p. 18

62

Return to p. 18

32

63Return to p. 18

64

Return to p. 19

33

65

Return to p. 4