Was Nate Silver Wrong?

Transcript of Was Nate Silver Wrong?

@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.comWTF

http://factorfirm.com/

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com

WRONG?

@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com

PLACES | THINGSMADE OF INFO

Attention Economy

Hidden costs?

INFLECTION POINT

IS INFLECTED

Is the public less informed?

Fake News

TRUTHINESS

ALTERNATIVE FACTS

STRAW POLL…

Clickbait ad image

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com

CONTENT FARMS

DGAF ABOUT UR CONTENT

PRODUCT IS USSUCH BIZ MODEL

SO ATTENTIVE

TFW human interpretation doesn’t matter

THIS IS NOT THE CRAP WE’RE LOOKING FOR

Doing more work for the machines

WHAT INFLUENCE DO WE REALLY HAVE?

RECURSIVE FEEDBACK LOOP IS RECURSIVE

Dopamine Rush

NORMAL COCAINE

Who benefits?

FOLLOW THE MONEY

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comNOW WITH MORE LOSSY

EFFICIENT MARKET

DDOS ON MEANING

MUGGLES DON’T HAVE TIME

NEITHER DO WIZARDS

WRONG?

How is Data Journalism like IA?

What’s your evidence?

Data vs. Access

Quant vs. Qual

But, getting good data is getting harder.

Downstream Effects

WRONG?

“So number one, and this kind of goes back to the supply chain, but if you're working with

actually trying to manufacture something out of data, to come to some analysis or some

conclusion, you have to make sure the data is good to begin with.”

— Nate Silver, 2011 IAS Keynote

The information supply chain.

Input OutputNoise

The Information Supply Chain

First principle: the data is wrong.

Embracing entropy.

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comWe can’t read users’ minds.

How to correct for wrong data?

What inputs do we trust?

Prioritizing Input

User Research recruiting

How likely is someone to vote?

Likely voter models

Moving target

Changes over time

BUT HER EMAILS!

The peril of adjustments

Apples to Apples

Third parties are not created equal.

Trend Line Adjustment

House Effects Adjustment

Undecideds?

Even more stuff?

W’ELL BE RIGHT BACK…

WITH MORE STUFF

This message was approved by…

Modeling is done by humans.

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comElection forecasting is grounded in classic information theory.

“Information is the resolution of uncertainty.”— Claude Shannon

“Findability is at the center of a quiet

revolution in how we define authority, allocate trust,

and make decisions.”

— Peter Morville, Ambient Findability

What does this all mean for Information Architects?

What are our information supply chains?

How do we know?

Our jobs will keep getting harder.

Side doors

Re-orienting Users

We are the definers.

Changes in Page Rank align with us

What can we do as information architects

on the ground?

As IA’s, what effect do we haveon the broader information environment?

How do we give information users the ability determine quality?

What are the implications for organizations?

What are an organization’s information assets?

What is the aboutness of your organization?

Bring the aboutness forward.

Resist the impulse to automate for its own sake.

Automate intelligently.

Consider the question.

Prioritization = values.

What can we do as information architects as a community?What is our responsibility as a community?

What are our goals as a society?

#DTDT#DTDT?

Information environmentalists.

Elevating the signal to noise ratioRestoring a healthy signal to noise ratio.

We need to be careful about giving up human control.

What ambient entropy do automated processes generate?

Good, Cheap, Fast?Pick two.

Engaging the community of thought.

Human solutions for human challenges.

What the triple bottom line?

What is ourtriple bottom line?

MODELING FOR TRUTH, JUSTICE,AND THE CANADIAN WAY

Modeling from the outside in.

Modeling from the inside out.

Make information great againWhat kind of information environment do we want to live in?

The curatorial imperative.

Chance 538 gave Trump of winning the presidency in 2016:

28.6%

Chance a major league baseball playerwould get a hit during any at-bat in 2016:

25.5%

LEAST WRONG

THANK YOU!

Was Nate Silver Wrong?

Internet

Transcript of Was Nate Silver Wrong?

NATE: Marketing & Communications

NATE NAJAR NATE NAJAR - TrustedPartner · PDF filethree miles from St. Pete, ... The Nate Najar Trio Remembers Charlie Byrd, ... NATE NAJAR NATE NAJAR. 3 classical guitar,

Wrong-Site, Wrong-Sided, Wrong Patient, Wrong …Wrong-Site, Wrong-Sided, Wrong-Patient, Wrong Procedure Surgery Patient Safety Conference NYS Department of Health Albany, NY May 2007

Nate Process Book

Ridderman nate presentation_slideshow

Big Nate 7 - C’est ma fêteexcerpts.numilog.com/books/9782075086950.pdf · Big Nate 1. Big Nate, le champion de l’école 2. Big Nate, capitaine de l’équipe 3. Big Nate, roi

By Nate Arnold

Big Nate 4. Star de la BDexcerpts.numilog.com/books/9782070582921.pdf · Big Nate 1. Big Nate, le champion de l’école 2. Big Nate, capitaine de l’équipe 3. Big Nate, roi du

NATE & DAVID

Phospho Nate

Nate Roseti Portfolio

Nate Curran @NateCurranAZ by Nate Curran

NATE NATHAN

Nate & Kasey

Buka tribe nate

Apresentação do PowerPointpaginapessoal.utfpr.edu.br/sato/disciplinas-1/disciplinas/20180219_a... · •Daniel Kahneman. Rápido e devagar. Objetiva. •Nate Silver. O sinal e o

Nate revolution new

Nate Test Questions

Wrong-Site, Wrong-Sided, Wrong Patient, Wrong Procedure Surgery

Nate Silver and spontaneity: a journey into Rebbe Nachman's Sichos Haran