Voting BehaviorVoting BehaviorPolitical Parties & ElectionsPolitical Parties & Elections

““I never vote for anyone. I always vote I never vote for anyone. I always vote against.”against.”

——W.C. Fields (1879-1946)W.C. Fields (1879-1946)

Models of Voting BehaviorModels of Voting Behavior

Sociological Sociological – Vote choice is a – Vote choice is a function of group membership.function of group membership.

Socio-PsychologicalSocio-Psychological – Vote choice is – Vote choice is the product of long-standing the product of long-standing identifications.identifications.

StrategicStrategic – Vote choice is a function of – Vote choice is a function of the spatial distance between a voter’s the spatial distance between a voter’s policy preferences and the policy preferences and the candidate’s issue position.candidate’s issue position.

What is Group What is Group Identification?Identification?

SELF-CATEGORIZATION:SELF-CATEGORIZATION: Self- Self-awareness of one’s objective awareness of one’s objective membership in a groupmembership in a group

AFFINITY:AFFINITY: Psychological sense of Psychological sense of attachment to the group attachment to the group

Examples…Examples…

African-AmericanAfrican-American Working classWorking class Single MomSingle Mom College studentCollege student RepublicanRepublican EnvironmentalistEnvironmentalist CatholicCatholic Senior CitizenSenior Citizen

These identities are often ACTIVATED by political parties and their candidates.

Vote Choice for President by Vote Choice for President by GenderGender

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent voting for Democratic candidate

Men Women

Source: National Election Studies, various years; 2008 data drawn from exit polls.

*

Why should there be a “gender Why should there be a “gender gap”?gap”?

Physical and sociological Physical and sociological differences?differences?

Different political Different political priorities?priorities?

Different policy Different policy preferences?preferences?

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2000

2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent responding

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."

Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Women, 1952-2004Women, 1952-2004

Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Men, 1952-2004Men, 1952-2004

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0

10

20

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40

50

60

70

Percent responding

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."

“Which political party do you thinkwould do a better job?”

ISSUE MEN WOMEN

Handling the nation’s economy R by 8% points D by 10% points

Handling foreign affairs R by 20% points D by 2% points

Making health care more affordable

D by 26% points D by 42% points

Reforming the welfare system R by 11% points D by 17% points

Handling the problem of poverty

D by 23% points D by 34% points

Handling the budget deficit R by 14% points D by 2% points

Handling the problem of pollution

and the environment

D by 32% points D by 33% points

Dealing with the crime problem R by 12% points D by 5% points

Party Strengths Among Male Party Strengths Among Male and Female Votersand Female Voters

Top 10 Signs You’re a Security Top 10 Signs You’re a Security MomMom

1.1. Your attack dog has a bin Laden chew toy. Your attack dog has a bin Laden chew toy. 2.2. You base your SUV purchase on how many You base your SUV purchase on how many

places there are to conceal a weapon. places there are to conceal a weapon. 3.3. Your neighborhood watch complains you Your neighborhood watch complains you

don’t leave any perps for them. don’t leave any perps for them. 4.4. You’ll vote for Bush because the other guy You’ll vote for Bush because the other guy

is a wussy. is a wussy. 5.5. You traded in your Gucci for the M-30 You traded in your Gucci for the M-30

Leather Gun Purse. Leather Gun Purse. 6.6. The guys at the range call you ‘Sarge’. The guys at the range call you ‘Sarge’. 7.7. You send your kids to Judo Camp. You send your kids to Judo Camp. 8.8. Your son quits the Boy Scouts because Your son quits the Boy Scouts because

they were “amateurs”. (MP personal they were “amateurs”. (MP personal favorite) favorite)

9.9. Monday is “MRE Night”. Monday is “MRE Night”. 10.10. You DO wear combat boots.You DO wear combat boots.

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

Did women support Sarah Palin?

Did blacks support Barack Obama?

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

2008 2008 Exit Exit PollsPolls

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

"Oprah

is a

Traito

r!!!"

"For the first time in history we actually have a chance at putting a woman in the white house and Oprah backs the black MAN. She's choosing her race over her gender – hypocrisy at its finest!!”

What happens when social identities collide?

Vote for President by Race, 1952-Vote for President by Race, 1952-20042004

19521956

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002002

20040

20

40

60

80

100

Percent voting for Democratic candidate

White

Black

Source: National Election Study, various years

The Youth VoteThe Youth Vote There are 43 million U.S. citizens There are 43 million U.S. citizens

between the ages 18-30.between the ages 18-30. 64% of 18-30 year old citizens 64% of 18-30 year old citizens

are registered to vote.are registered to vote. 18-30 year olds make up 24% of 18-30 year olds make up 24% of

total pool of eligible voters. total pool of eligible voters. The youth vote increased by 4.6 The youth vote increased by 4.6

million in 2004. Voters under the million in 2004. Voters under the age of 30 made up 17% of the age of 30 made up 17% of the electorate in 2004—roughly the electorate in 2004—roughly the same proportion as in 2000.same proportion as in 2000.

In 2004, young voters preferred In 2004, young voters preferred Kerry to Bush by a margin of Kerry to Bush by a margin of 54%-45%.54%-45%.

"A man who is not a "A man who is not a socialist at 20 has no heart; socialist at 20 has no heart; a man who is still a a man who is still a socialist at 40 has no socialist at 40 has no head." head."

——Winston ChurchillWinston Churchill

Generational PoliticsGenerational Politics

Life-cycle effectsLife-cycle effects MaturationMaturation Role transitionRole transition

Period effectsPeriod effects Great DepressionGreat Depression Vietnam WarVietnam War 9/119/11

Cohort effects Cohort effects ““Greatest Generation,” 1901-1924Greatest Generation,” 1901-1924 Silent Generation, 1925-1945 Silent Generation, 1925-1945 Baby Boomers, 1946-1964Baby Boomers, 1946-1964 Generation X, 1965-1980Generation X, 1965-1980 Reagan Babies, 1980-1988Reagan Babies, 1980-1988

Voter Turnout by Age, 2004Voter Turnout by Age, 2004

% REGISTERED% REGISTERED % TURNOUT% TURNOUTAges 18-24Ages 18-24 52%52% 42%42%

Ages 25-44Ages 25-44 60%60% 52%52%

Ages 45-64Ages 45-64 73%73% 67%67%

Ages 65-74Ages 65-74 77%77% 71%71%

Ages 75+Ages 75+ 77%77% 67%67%

TotalTotal 66%66% 58%58%

How Apathetic?How Apathetic?

17% of students were interested in “influencing 17% of students were interested in “influencing the political structure” (58% of Baby Boomers the political structure” (58% of Baby Boomers said the same in 1966).said the same in 1966).

26% were interested in “keeping up with political 26% were interested in “keeping up with political affairs.”affairs.”

28% wanted to be “a community leader.” 28% wanted to be “a community leader.” In contrast, 73% of college freshmen said they In contrast, 73% of college freshmen said they

wanted to be well-off financially. wanted to be well-off financially.

In 2000, an annual survey of freshmen in the colleges In 2000, an annual survey of freshmen in the colleges and universities across the country found that: and universities across the country found that:

A Rise in Independents?A Rise in Independents?

Not all respondents classified as Not all respondents classified as “Independents” label themselves “Independents” label themselves that way.that way.

Most independents are, in fact, Most independents are, in fact, “hidden” partisans. “hidden” partisans.

19681968 19721972 19761976 19801980 19841984 19881988 19921992 19961996

Strong DemocratsStrong Democrats 85%85% 73%73% 91%91% 86%86% 87%87% 93%93% 93%93% 96%96%

Weak DemocratsWeak Democrats 5858 4848 7474 6060 6767 7070 6969 8282

Independents, Independents, closer to Democratscloser to Democrats 5252 6060 7272 4545 7979 8888 7171 7676

IndependentsIndependents ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

Independents, Independents, closer to closer to RepublicansRepublicans

8282 8686 8383 7676 9292 8484 6262 6868

Weak RepublicansWeak Republicans 8282 9090 7777 8686 9393 8383 6060 7070

Strong RepublicansStrong Republicans 9696 9797 9696 9292 9696 9898 8787 9494

Party Identifiers Voting for Party Identifiers Voting for Their Party’s Presidential Their Party’s Presidential

CandidateCandidate

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0

10

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50

60

70

Perc

ent r

espo

ndin

g

Democrat Republican Independent Apolitical

Source: National Election Studies, various years.

Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-20042004

Including “Leaners”Including “Leaners”

Trends in Partisan Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-2004Identification, 1952-2004

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0

5

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15

20

25

30

Percent responding

Strong DemocratWeak DemocratIndependent, leans Democrat

IndependentIndependent, leans RepublicanWeak Republican

Strong RepublicanApolitical

2004 Exit Poll Results2004 Exit Poll Results

Since “moral values” outranked all other Since “moral values” outranked all other issues in the 2004 exit poll, some argue issues in the 2004 exit poll, some argue that Bush won re-election because of a that Bush won re-election because of a legion of religious voters. Others call it a legion of religious voters. Others call it a myth.myth.

Religion and Voting Behavior, Religion and Voting Behavior, 20042004

What are “Moral Values”?What are “Moral Values”?

Being against gay Being against gay marriage?marriage?

Opposing stem cell Opposing stem cell research?research?

Opposing abortion?Opposing abortion? Helping the poor?Helping the poor? Withdrawing troops from Withdrawing troops from

Iraq?Iraq? Character attributes of the Character attributes of the

candidates?candidates?Some argue that the “moral values” controversy rests on a single “dodgy” exit poll question…

2004 Exit Poll Results2004 Exit Poll Results