Using Historical Documents to Reconstruct Climate

Cameron Douglas CraigIndiana State University Climate Laboratory

Department of Geography, Geology, and AnthropologyIndiana State University

Terre Haute, Indiana

Agenda

• Historical Documents• The Acquisition of Sources• Interpreting the Data• Critical Reconstruction• Methodological Problems• Conclusion

Historical Documents

• Primary Sources– First Hand Accounts– Unedited and

Unpublished • Examples of Primary

Sources– Ship Logs– Military Logs– Personal Journals and

Diaries– Newspapers

Collection No. SC592. IHS.

Historical Documents

• Personal Journals and Diaries– Historical preservation of daily events

• People wanted to remember what they did and who they met day to day.

• Entertaining

– Time-travel to the past• Financial records• Personal thoughts• Lifestyles• Weather conditions

Samuel Shirk Collection, 1852. IHS.

Historical Documents

• Why Record the Weather?– Complete description

• a full picture of daily events: “What was it like when…”

– Agricultural• Planting season with frost dates recorded• Yield from the previous years harvest (insight into

the amount of precipitation)

Historical Documents• What Weather Conditions were

Recorded?– Temperature

• Relative terms due to the lack of thermometers• Occasional collections with actual temperatures

– Sky conditions• Cloud cover

– Precipitation type• Rain• Snow

Collection No. SC717 F3. IHS.

The Acquisition of Sources

• What are Archival Institutions?– Depository of historical documents and

artifacts– Non-circulation library

• Local Archival Institutions– Indiana Historical Society, William H. Smith

Memorial Library, Indianapolis, Indiana– Indiana State Library, Indianapolis, Indiana

Historiography

• Words and Their Meaning– Past versus present

• “Hot” today would not necessarily mean the same then.

• Gender Differences– Male versus female observers

• Males had to provide for the family.• Females were in charge of the household

functions.

Historiography• Historical Documents

– People Traveled• Weather observations in nearby cities can be

used to reconstruct data.– Concerns:

• Cross-examination of other stationary observers must be implemented.

• Limit of distance from Indiana must also be implemented.

– St. Louis– Cincinnati– Chicago

Historiography• Historical Documents Continued

– Eye of the Beholder• Catastrophic events sometimes overstated and

must be cross-examined with other witnesses.– Illness

• Some observers did not record observations due to illness.

– Look to other observers to fill in gaps.

– Gaps between observers• Statistical methods employed by Climatologists

can fill in the gaps accurately.

Historiography

• Cross-Examination– Important to accurately reconstruct

temperature scheme.• Newspapers• Witness to witness

Interpreting the Data

• The Climatologist as Detective– Using descriptions other than weather

observations.

11-22-1857: Cloudy & cool-snow on ground-snowed in evening (28-32)

11-23-1857: Fine day & cool

11-24-1857: Cloudy-went to town in sleigh*

11-25-1857: Clear-went hunting in sleigh*

11-26-1857: Clear & warm

11-27-1857: Clear & warm-snow off (33-40)

Critical Reconstruction

• Creating a Temperature Scheme– Rank-ordered word scales (Baron, 1992)

• Relative Temperatures put into a numerical index:

– +14 (very hottest)– -14 (very coldest)– 0 (considered normal)

– A rank-ordered word scale is created for each witness.

– Critical reconstruction ties all witnesses together to create the final product.

Index Relative Term

9 Hottest

8 Excessively Hot

7 Very Hot

6 Hot

5 Warmer

4 Some Warmer

3 Little Warmer

2 Warm

1 Moderate

0 Pleasant (Normal)

-1 Cool

-2 Some Cooler

-3 Cooler

-4 Little Chilly

-5 Very Chilly

-6 Cold

-7 Quite Cold

-8 Some Colder (Frozen/Freezing)

-9 Colder (Heavy Frost)

-10 Tolerable Cold

-11 Very Cold

-12 Coldest

Figure 3.1. Frequency of relative terms. The Diary of Elisha King, 1854-1857.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

7 12 15 13 18 19 2 5 4 11 17 1 20 10 16 8 9 3 6 14 21 22Relative Terms Used in the Journal

Freq

uenc

y

1--Coldest2--Very Cold3--Tolerable Cold4--Colder (Heavy Frost)5--Some Colder (Frozen/Freezing)6--Quite Cold7--Cold8--Very Chilly

9--Litt le Chilly10-Cooler11-Some Cooler12-Cool13-Pleasant14-Moderate15-Warm16-Litt le Warmer

17-Some Warmer18-Warmer19-Hot20-Very Hot21-Excessively Hot22-Hottest

Observer Period Covered

Type of Observation

George M. Beeler 1864 Continuous weather observations in qualitative form.

Churchman Table 1872-1877 Contains only low temperatures for winter months.

Rufus Haymond, M.D.

1845-1871 Scattered observations. Inconsistent.

Elisha King 1854-1862 Continuous weather observations in qualitative form; many in great detail.

William Scudder, Jr. 1856-1859 Continuous weather observations in qualitative form; not in great detail.

Samuel Shirk 1852 and 1855 Two excellent diaries with actual temperatures throughout each.

Date Elisha King Samuel Shirk

1/25/1855 Snowing AM/QuitSnowing/Warmer

Snowing/20° F/2 inches deep—the most this winter

2/3/1855 The coldest day yet. Clear nearly all day.

Clear—0° F Coldest day.

2/27/1855 Cold and Clear Clear thermometer a shade above zero

4/17/1855 Warm—the warmest Hazy 86° F

7/15/1855 Very hot and sultry Clear 98° F

7/17/1855 The hottest and clear Clear 94° F

-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

10

11/1/54 11/1/55 11/1/56 11/1/57 11/1/58 11/1/59 11/1/60 11/1/61 11/1/62

Date

Dep

artu

re I

ndex

Figure 4.11. Relative temperatures from Elisha King's Diary, 1854-1862.

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

4/1/57 5/1/57 6/1/57 7/1/57 8/1/57 9/1/57 10/1/57 11/1/57 12/1/57 1/1/58 2/1/58 3/1/58 4/1/58

Date

Dep

artu

re In

dex

Figure 4.13. Relative temperatures from Will iam Scudder, Jr., 1857-1858.

Figure 4.20. Samuel Shirk's record of actual temperatures, 1852.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1/1/52 2/1/52 3/1/52 4/1/52 5/1/52 6/1/52 7/1/52 8/1/52 9/1/52 10/1/52 11/1/52 12/1/52

Date

Tem

pera

ture

(F)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1/1/55 2/1/55 3/1/55 4/1/55 5/1/55 6/1/55 7/1/55 8/1/55 9/1/55 10/1/55 11/1/55 12/1/55

Date

Tem

pera

ture

(F)

Figure 4.10. Samuel Shirk's recrd of actual temperatures, 1855.

Figure 4.21. Patterns derived from combined records.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1552 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76

Year

Ran

k O

rder

ed W

ord

Scal

es

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Act

ual T

empe

ratu

re (F

)

Elisha King William Scudder, Jr. Samuel Shirk Churchman

Conclusion

• Exercise– What is a “relative” term?– Describe the current weather.

• Relative Temperature• Sky Conditions• Personal Observational Remarks

– Compare your results• Which of the descriptions do you agree with the

most?– Problems……………

Climate and ArtClimate and Art

John E. OliverJohn E. OliverCameron D. CraigCameron D. Craig

Department of Geography, Geology, and AnthropologyDepartment of Geography, Geology, and AnthropologyIndiana State UniversityIndiana State University

Terre Haute, IndianaTerre Haute, Indiana