Historical climate and future scenarios
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Historical climate and Historical climate and future scenarios future scenarios Trevor Murdock Trevor Murdock Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) (PCIC) University of Victoria University of Victoria Canadian Columbia River Forum 27 October 2008
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Historical climate and future scenarios. Canadian Columbia River Forum 27 October 2008. Trevor Murdock Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) University of Victoria. Outline. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Variability and historical trends Future projections. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Historical climate and future scenarios
Historical climate and Historical climate and future scenariosfuture scenarios
Trevor MurdockTrevor Murdock
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria
Canadian Columbia River Forum
27 October 2008
1.1. Pacific Climate Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumImpacts Consortium
2.2. Variability and Variability and historical trendshistorical trends
3.3. Future projectionsFuture projections
OutlineOutline
Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumPacific Climate Impacts Consortium www.PacificClimate.org
Launched 2005Launched 2005 Focus on regional climate impactsFocus on regional climate impacts Application of research to management, Application of research to management,
planning, and decision-makingplanning, and decision-making Partner with research labs, impacts Partner with research labs, impacts
researchers and regional stakeholdersresearchers and regional stakeholders
PCIC ResourcesPCIC Resources
BC Ministry of EnvironmentBC Ministry of Environment PICS Endowment PICS Endowment www.pics.uvic.ca
BC HydroBC Hydro BC Ministry of Forests and RangeBC Ministry of Forests and Range Communities and others – small projectsCommunities and others – small projects
1010 15 full time staff + post-docs 15 full time staff + post-docs
www.PacificClimate.org/publications Support from BC Hydro & BC MOESupport from BC Hydro & BC MOE
Climate Overview ProjectClimate Overview Project
1.1. Pacific Climate Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumImpacts Consortium
2.2. Variability and Variability and historical trendshistorical trends
3.3. Future projectionsFuture projections
OutlineOutline
Annual and decadal variability Annual and decadal variability superimposed on climate trendssuperimposed on climate trends
• Trend• Decadal• Annual
El Nino – less precipitation El Nino – less precipitation La Nina – more precipitation La Nina – more precipitation
El Nino – warmer El Nino – warmer La Nina – coolerLa Nina – cooler
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed on ENSOsuperimposed on ENSO
Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more rain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flowrain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flow
Cranbrook warming faster than Cranbrook warming faster than nearby stations (1913-2002)nearby stations (1913-2002)
50-yr Temperature Trends50-yr Temperature Trends
30-yr Temperature Trends30-yr Temperature Trends
Precipitation (1913-2002)Precipitation (1913-2002)
1.1. Pacific Climate Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumImpacts Consortium
2.2. Variability and Variability and historical trendshistorical trends
3.3. Future projectionsFuture projections
OutlineOutline
• Global Climate Models – Global Climate Models – range of uncertaintyrange of uncertainty
• Regional Climate Models – Regional Climate Models – inter-regional differences inter-regional differences from larger scale changesfrom larger scale changes
• Empirical Downscaling – Empirical Downscaling – high resolution high resolution elevation elevation correction on temperaturecorrection on temperature
Projections of future climate changeProjections of future climate change
IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5
Amount of climate change depends on Amount of climate change depends on greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissions
• BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990)• 15 GCMs
• solid A2• dash B1
BC projected to warm considerably BC projected to warm considerably compared to historical variabilitycompared to historical variability
BC 2050s (2041-2070) annual temperature anomalies (°C) from (1961-1990) model baseline. Range from all available AR4 scenarios.
EmissionsEmissionsScenarioScenario
1010thth percentilepercentile
2525thth percentilepercentile
5050thth percentile percentile (median)(median)
7575thth percentilepercentile
9090thth percentilepercentile
B1B1 1.31.3 1.61.6 1.91.9 2.12.1 2.62.6
A2A2 1.41.4 1.81.8 2.02.0 2.52.5 2.92.9
AllAll 1.41.4 1.71.7 2.12.1 2.62.6 3.03.0
T GCM rangeT GCM range T A2-B1T A2-B1 P GCM rangeP GCM range P A2-B1P A2-B1
2050s2050s 1.61.6 0.10.1 11%11% 0%0%
2080s2080s 2.42.4 1.51.5 13%13% 3%3%
Temperature (°C) and Precipitation (% of 1961-1990 model baseline) uncertainty estimates from GCMs and emissions scenarios
2050s range = uncertainty2050s range = uncertainty2080s more emissions 2080s more emissions warmer warmer
Projected warming depends on GCM Projected warming depends on GCM and emissions scenarioand emissions scenario
Columbia Basin winter and summer Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)
CGCM3 A2 run 4CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4by CGCM3 A2 run 4
RCM adds regional detail unavailable RCM adds regional detail unavailable from its driving GCMfrom its driving GCM
Winter temperature increase larger in Winter temperature increase larger in northern portion of Basinnorthern portion of Basin
CRCM 4.1.1 run CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act acs & act forced by forced by CGCM3 CGCM3 A2 run 4A2 run 4
0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by 0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by 2050s 2050s (CGCM3 A2 run4)(CGCM3 A2 run4)
Increased Growing Degree Days Increased Growing Degree Days (CGCM3 A2 run4)(CGCM3 A2 run4)
Increased suitability for Douglas Fir,Increased suitability for Douglas Fir,decreased suitability for Sprucedecreased suitability for Spruce
(average of 5 projections)(average of 5 projections)
•
Less summer rainfall projected in Less summer rainfall projected in eastern portion of the Basineastern portion of the Basin
CRCM 4.1.1 run CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act acs & act forced by forced by CGCM3 CGCM3 A2 run 4A2 run 4
Precipitation: likelyPrecipitation: likelywinter increase, summer decreasewinter increase, summer decrease
Columbia Basin winter and summer Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)
• Climate variabilityClimate variability• Year-to-year variability superimposed on long termYear-to-year variability superimposed on long term• effects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basineffects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basin
• Historical trendsHistorical trends• vary spatially, seasonally, and by length of recordvary spatially, seasonally, and by length of record• winter minimum temperatures particularly milderwinter minimum temperatures particularly milder• ∆ ∆ T and P T and P components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers, components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers,
streamflow & lake icestreamflow & lake ice
• Projections (2050s)Projections (2050s) T (1.6°C to 2.3°C)T (1.6°C to 2.3°C) winter P (+1% to +13%)winter P (+1% to +13%) summer P (-10% to -4%)summer P (-10% to -4%)• GDD, tree species suitability GDD, tree species suitability implications for Himplications for H220 mgmt0 mgmt
SummarySummary
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsFinancial support, collaboration, reviewFinancial support, collaboration, review
Trends for Biodiversity Trends for Biodiversity Matt Austin, BC Ministry of EnvironmentMatt Austin, BC Ministry of EnvironmentJenny Fraser, BC Ministry of EnvironmentJenny Fraser, BC Ministry of Environment
Richard Hebda, Royal BC MuseumRichard Hebda, Royal BC MuseumBob Peart, Biodiversity BCBob Peart, Biodiversity BC
Nancy Turner, University of VictoriaNancy Turner, University of Victoria
Climate OverviewClimate OverviewDoug Smith, BC HydroDoug Smith, BC Hydro
Ben Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of EnvironmentBen Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of EnvironmentDave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of ForestsDave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of ForestsDan Moore, University of British ColumbiaDan Moore, University of British Columbia
Stewart Cohen, UBC and Environment CanadaStewart Cohen, UBC and Environment CanadaDan Smith, University of VictoriaDan Smith, University of Victoria
Elaine Barrow, ConsultantElaine Barrow, ConsultantSarah Boon, University of LethbridgeSarah Boon, University of LethbridgeAllan Chapman, River Forecast CentreAllan Chapman, River Forecast CentreXuebin Zhang, Environment CanadaXuebin Zhang, Environment Canada
Doug McCollor, BC HydroDoug McCollor, BC HydroPhil Mote, University of WashingtonPhil Mote, University of WashingtonPaul Whitfield, Environment CanadaPaul Whitfield, Environment Canada
Robin Pike, FORREXRobin Pike, FORREX (now Ministry of Forests)(now Ministry of Forests)
Forest Science Program Project Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program
Richard Hebda, Royal BC MuseumDave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests
Steve Taylor , Pacific Forestry CentreVince Nealis , Pacific Forestry CentreRene Alfaro, Pacific Forestry Centre
Tongli Wang, University of British ColumbiaKees van Kooten , University of VictoriaAndreas Hamman, University of Alberta
PCIC Research AssociatesKirstin Campbell, Alvaro Montenegro, Alan Mehlenbacher,
Clint Abbott, Kyle Ford, Hamish Aubrey
PCIC StaffDilumie Abeysirigunawardena, Katrina Bennett, Dave Bronaugh, Aquila Flower, Dave Rodenhuis, and Arelia
Werner
Thank youThank you
For more informationFor more information
www.PacificClimate.org Trevor MurdockTrevor Murdock
PCIC PartnersPCIC Partners
Ice Core Temperature and CO2 levels past 20,000 yrs
Recent CORecent CO2 2 change comparable to change comparable to difference between ice age and nowdifference between ice age and now
Columbia Basin to warm considerably Columbia Basin to warm considerably compared to historical variabilitycompared to historical variability
• BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990)• 15 GCMs
• solid A2• dash B1
CGCM3 A2 run 4CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4by CGCM3 A2 run 4
RCM shows regional differences in RCM shows regional differences in projected relative precipitation changeprojected relative precipitation change
Source Source Jennifer Penney Jennifer Penney Clean Air PartnershipClean Air Partnership
Complementary mitigation and adaptation (not trade-offs)
From Impacts to AdaptationFrom Impacts to Adaptation http://adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php http://adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
From impacts From impacts to adaptationto adaptation
The following hydrology-related changes may be expected in British Columbia:
• Increased atmospheric evaporative demand• Altered vegetation composition affecting evaporation and interception• Increased stream and lake temperatures• Increased frequency and magnitude of storm events and disturbances • Accelerated melting of permafrost, lake ice, and river ice•Decreased snow accumulation and accelerated snowmelt• Glacier mass balance adjustments•Altered timing and magnitude of streamflow
From impacts From impacts to adaptationto adaptation
T & P changes T & P changes impacts on impacts on drought, landslide, storms, drought, landslide, storms, water supply, power generation,water supply, power generation,infrastructure, health etc.infrastructure, health etc.
Integrate adaptation into Integrate adaptation into individual official community individual official community plans, departmental & agency plans & programsplans, departmental & agency plans & programs
Online “planners interface” to climate change information in Online “planners interface” to climate change information in development. Contact development. Contact [email protected]
Municipalities can adapt to climate change by mainstreaming climate considerations
PCIC online interface was developed for PCIC online interface was developed for impacts researchersimpacts researchers
Comprehensive Comprehensive assessments involved:assessments involved:
Analysis of current conditions & Analysis of current conditions & stressorsstressors
Review of historical climate Review of historical climate trendstrends
Regional climate change Regional climate change projections projections
Case studies of recent extreme Case studies of recent extreme weather eventsweather events
Analysis of likely impacts by Analysis of likely impacts by sectorsector
Some used formal risk Some used formal risk assessment to prioritize risksassessment to prioritize risks
Source Source Jennifer Penney Jennifer Penney Clean Air PartnershipClean Air Partnership
Assessment of vulnerabilities, risks, impacts, opportunities
Potential for spruce bark beetle Potential for spruce bark beetle outbreaks in colder areas of rangeoutbreaks in colder areas of range
Future StreamflowFuture Streamflow
[email protected]@alumni.uvic.caa
Trevor MurdockTrevor Murdock
Comparison of Historical Variability and Comparison of Historical Variability and Projected ChangeProjected Change
Source: PacificClimate.orgSource: PacificClimate.org
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1. Columbia Basin UW/DOE2. BC Environment RFC
Mountain Pine Beetle Study3. BCH Peace River Basin
Climate Change Study
VIC Driving Data, Time Series Average 1961 – 1990 Climatology, Precipitation (mm)
Projecting streamflow using diagnostic Projecting streamflow using diagnostic hydrological model (VIC)hydrological model (VIC)
heating & cooling heating & cooling energy cost energy cost scenarios for 2080 scenarios for 2080 (Royal BC Museum (Royal BC Museum 2005)2005)
Summer coolingbaseline
high change scenario
Winter heatingWinter heatingbaselinebaseline
high change high change scenarioscenario
summer cooling winter heating
• Green Buildings rarely consider local climate, and do not consider future climate
“increasing the attic space insulation from RSI 7.7 to RSI 9.0 in colder areas of the province (4500 and greater degree days)”
• Highest energy efficiency over lifespan of buildings can only be achieved by considering reduced winter heating demand, increased summer cooling demand, and changes to precipitation
•
Adaptation & Green Buildings Greener Buildings
