WORKING TOGETHER AS AN INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM

TIMOTHY WALTON, PH.D.; FRANCES FLANNERY, PH.D.

The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:

Our Research Team from Intelligence Analysis at James Madison University

The Dynamics of Violent Apocalypticism and Nuclear Proliferation: Simulation of a Dynamic Hypothesis, with Implications for U.S./Iranian Relations. By Michael L. Deaton, Frances L. Flannery, and Timothy R. Walton. In progress for System Dynamics Review.

Mike Deaton:

The Problem:

Iran is enriching uranium up to 20%, which can be further developed into nuclear weaponry.

Iran is obfuscating the efforts of the IAEA.In the past, Iran has sponsored terrorism.Iran has spoken aggressively towards Israel

and the United States.Discerning Iran’s intentions is key. Is the

uranium intended for a weapon? If Iran had a weapon, would they use it?

Formal Structures of the Iranian Government

President

Parliament

Assembly of Experts

Supreme Leader

Expediency Council

Guardian Council

IRGC

Cabinet

Bureaucracy

Armed Forces

Elected Appointed

Institutions in green are the main channels of clerical control

Informal Structure of Factions

Conservatives

Pragmatists

War Generation

Reformers

Conservatives

Leader: Ali Khamenei

Supreme Leader, 1989 – present

Constituencies: clergy, judiciary, monitoring organizations

Program: maintain theocratic regime, national self sufficiency

PragmatistsLeader: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani

President, 1989 – 1997 Chairman Assembly of Experts, 2007 – 2011 Chairman, Expediency Council, 1988 – present

Constituencies: middle class, technocrats

Program: economic development managed by government

War Generation

Leader: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Mayor of Tehran, 2003-2005

President, 2005-2013

Constituencies: IRGC, rural poor

Program: populist, nationalist, authoritarian

Reformers

Leader: Hossein Mousavi

Prime Minister , 1981-1989

Candidate for President in controversial election in 2009

Constituencies: professionals, intellectuals, ethnic minorities

Program: democracy, rule of law

Conventional Wisdom:

Iran is a rational player.Iran will act according to the same logic as the

United States, Canada, and other allies.Iran will act in terms of its own national

interests and the interests of its people.Iran would therefore not use a nuclear weapon

against Israel, Europe, or the United States. To do so would ensure it would be attacked and perhaps destroyed.

Therefore, if Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, it is for political leverage only.

Systems Dynamic Modeling

SD shows an overarching model of the shifting interactions amongst factors of a system.

SD encourages a complex, multi-faceted perspective.

SD fosters an understanding of the various elements that can drive a system in different directions, depending on the pressures and counter-pressures applied.

An example of an early working model follows.

Conventional Wisdom:International efforts to

deter Iran’s efforts

RADAP in a Shi’ite Islamist key

Photo From Facebook, The Coming of Imam Mahdi, a screen shot of The Coming is Near.

The “logic” is governed by revelation.

This world is not as important as other worlds: a) heaven and b) the imminent reign of the Mahdi (heaven on earth.)

The Mahdi is the pure human being who will rule over the whole world.

He is coming very soon (2013?).

Radical Apocalyptic Logic

RADAP Logic in Iran

President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Khamenei are in touch with the Mahdi.

He is guiding their actions and the fate of the cosmos is at stake.

The prophecies: the Mahdi will revenge the Shi’a against the Sunnis, and conquer the great enemies of the Shi’a.

The greatest enemies of Iran are The Great Satan (the United States) and the Little Satan (Israel).

The Mahdi’s kingdom is a vast one, with Iran at its epicenter.

The Mahdi’s kingdom will prevail. Period.

More from Frances

A Recipe for Interdisciplinary Research

scholarly expertise, with humility

flexibility of minddeep listeningall invested in the

importance of the project

language and communication

the value of simplicitythe value of the details

Suggestions for the Intelligence Community

Red Team Perspective on Apocalypticism

See the world as others see it (rational, in their scheme of things)

Draw on expertise Understand multidimensional aspects Expand range of plausible scenarios

Suggestions (Two)

Collaboration within Agencies and Interagency Collaboration bring subject area expertise to bear, with humility flexibility of mind deep listening all invested in the importance of the project language and communication the value of simplicity the value of the details

Questions or Comments?

Timothy Walton, Ph.D. waltontr@jmu.edu

Frances Flannery, Ph.D. flannefl@jmu.edu